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Week 13 Preview: Don't underestimate the Chiefs

Here’s a stat that may surprise you: according to FiveThirtyEight's Elo ratings, the Kansas City Chiefs have a 14 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl—tied with the Seattle Seahawks and behind only the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys. Make of that what you will—I don’t think the Chiefs’ Super Bowl chances are that high—but the number underscores the fact that no team this good has been so under the radar in recent memory.

It’s understandable why the public isn’t particularly interested in the Chiefs. I hate to sound like a curmudgeon at age 17, but without any enthralling fantasy football options on the team, there won’t be many people outside of Kansas City interested in watching them on a weekly basis. That’s fine, but as a result, the public has yet to catch on to just how good this team is.  Get into a conversation about the NFL and the Chiefs are often an afterthought at best. Tell someone they have a respectable chance at winning the whole thing and they’ll look at you as if you have three heads. Nevertheless, the Chiefs have as good a chance as anyone. Maybe not as high as 14 percent, but the 6.2 percent proposed by Football Outsiders—higher than all but five teams—is more than feasible.

Nobody likes to admit it, but Alex Smith and Andy Reid aren’t all that bad of a combination. Smith is the prototypical Dilfer Zone quarterback—he may not be the reason you’re winning, but he sure as hell won’t be an obstacle. Reid is frustrating late in games—he mismanages the clock and tries turning 2-minute drills into 10-hour marathons all too often—but his teams consistently play at or above expectations. With the right supporting cast, it’s not hard to see them winning games in the postseason and the Chiefs may have the right supporting cast.

Offensively, they can do just enough. Spencer Ware has kept the run game afloat by averaging 4.7 yards per carry and ranking inside the top-15 in DYAR and DVOA. The offensive line isn’t noticeably good, but all five players are average by PFF grading, meaning that none can be exploited by the likes of Von Miller in the way Marcus Cannon and Mike Remmers were last postseason. Travis Kelce is a unique, if underused threat. Defenses struggle to match up with him and the threat of a Gronk-like run up the seam is always there—it’s just a matter of when KC breaks it out. Tyreek Hill has turned into a dynamic playmaker in the screen game who picks up yardage after the catch as well as anyone in the league. He’s also spearheaded a special teams unit that ranks second in DVOA. (Don’t underestimate special teams in the playoffs. They were a big reason why Kansas City won against Houston in the wild card last season and the ability to maintain good field position is huge for a team like the Chiefs, especially on the road or in cold weather). Jeremy Maclin is also set to return soon—he’ll add the element this offense desperately lacks: a receiver who can consistently make plays downfield. It’s not the best offense in the league, but it can certainly supplement a defense that is among the top of its class.

With Justin Houston making a triumphant, resounding return over the past two weeks, the Chiefs’ pass rush is suddenly among the most fearsome in football. Dee Ford has piled up sacks—10 to be exact—with Chris Jones and Dontari Poe making positive contributions as well. Throw Houston into that mix and things are downright scary.

The inside linebacker position has been better than expected with Derrick Johnson posting an 82.8 PFF grade and Ramik Wilson ranking eighth at the position by PFF grading. The secondary can potentially be exploited—Phillip Gaines has been a frequent culprit—but Marcus Peters, Eric Berry and Ron Parker cover over the mistakes most weeks.

With sparingly few well-rounded teams this season, the time is ripe for Kansas City. Each potential opponent can be exploited in some way—New England via its lack of a pass rush, Oakland via its lack of a secondary, Denver via its offensive line and lack of a run game and so on—but outside of Gaines and potentially Kenneth Acker, there isn’t a glaring weakness for teams to go after when they play the Chiefs. If they can play to their potential defensively, this team is a Super Bowl contender, whether the public realizes it or not.

Week 13 Picks

 Vegas Insider’s consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Cowboys -3 over VIKINGS: Dallas’ defense will come back to bite them at some point, but it won’t be against a team that ranks 25^th in offensive DVOA and features a quarterback with an ALEX lower than Alex Smith himself. On the other side of the ball, I just don’t think any team can compete with the Cowboys’ offensive line. Quietly, one of the most important events of the year for them was La’El Collins getting hurt, which allowed Ron Leary to come back to the starting lineup at left guard. Over the first three games, Collins had a 42.1 PFF grade. Since Leary has started, he’s had an 81.9 PFF grade.

Broncos -4.5 over JAGUARS: This pick is contingent on Trevor Siemian playing—I would take Blake Bortles over Paxton Lynch if it came to that—but I don’t think there’s any way the Jaguars can compete with Denver if Siemian plays. Jacksonville should have one goal for the rest of the season: making a definitive choice as to whether or not Bortles can be their quarterback for the next 10 years. I can’t profess to know a lot about the quarterback class in the draft this year, but if the Jaguars are going to make a change, it should be sooner rather than later.

Chiefs +3.5 over FALCONS: After the top of this column, all I’ll say is that I will continue to take Kansas City as long as the public underestimates them against tough competition. 4  

PACKERS -6.5 over Texans: I’ve been spending way too much time playing with the New York Times’ playoff simulator and here’s what it looks like in the AFC South: if Houston can win three more games, it would take a minor miracle for them to miss the postseason. If they only win two, it has to be against Indy and Tennessee, otherwise things get dicey. Even in that scenario, however, the Titans would need to beat either Kansas City or Denver to get in, meaning that the favorite would be the Colts, who have a much easier schedule. If Houston can beat them next week, it virtually eliminates them and if they can beat Tennessee in Week 17, it virtually eliminates them. And, unfortunately, both of those seem possible.

Eagles -1 over BENGALS: What reason is there to pick the Bengals at this point? There’s nobody for Andy Dalton to throw the ball to, Jeremy Hill looked bad last week and is probably playing hurt, Vontaze Burfict might kill somebody on defense and Mike Nugent can’t make an extra point to save his life. I was optimistic about this team at the beginning of the year, but things have gone as badly as they possibly could have gone.

Lions +6 over SAINTS: Per Football Outsiders’ premium DVOA database, the Lions’ defensive DVOA over their past four games is 9.45 percent. That’s not good by any means—it would rank 29^th on the year—but it is nearly twice as good as the 18.4 percent mark they have over the year, which ranks 31^st. When you have a dynamic passing game as Detroit does, you don’t need much from the defense—especially in a shootout like this week’s game looks to be. Of course, the same logic applies to the Saints, but with this game being winnable for both sides, the six-point spread looks good for the underdog.    

49ers +1.5 over BEARS: One of many unfortunate things about Colin Kaepernick’s recent comments regarding Fidel Castro is that they’ve overshadowed a small resurgence in his play. The 49ers have lost their last four games, but Kaepernick has played well in each of them—particularly in the past three, all of which were winnable. Kaepernick is running the ball well; he’s making something out of a horrific receiving corps and keeping the Niners in games. Most importantly, he’s thrown just two interceptions in those four games. It won’t save San Francisco’s season—it might even ruin their shot at a better draft pick—but it is nice to see him playing well after it looked like his career was over a year ago.

PATRIOTS -13.5 over Rams: Jeff Fisher’s week has included alienating his franchise’s best player of all-time, losing his 163^rd game—which ranks second all-time (he’s only two losses away from tying Dan Reeves for the most)—and telling New England reporters about the importance of stopping Brandon Bolden and Danny Woodhead in this week’s game. Bolden has four carries this season and Woodhead plays for San Diego. At some point, we have to entertain the possibility that Jeff Fisher is pulling a Costanza and trying to lose his job.

RAVENS -3 over Dolphins: This is a stay-away of the highest order, but I went with Baltimore. They’re at home, they rank first in defensive DVOA and in a defensive game, being able to kick from anywhere inside the opposing 45-yard line with confidence can make a difference. That being said, nobody should bet on this game.

RAIDERS -3 over Bills: Outside of cold weather games, I’m not sure the Raiders' offense can be stopped. If they can get the #1 seed—a scenario I consider unlikely given that they still have to go on the road to Denver and Kansas City—Oakland is the biggest threat to New England in the AFC. As for this week, I don’t think Buffalo’s offense is good enough to keep up with the Raiders unless they can force a couple of turnovers defensively. The problem: Oakland has turned it over just nine times, the sixth-best mark in the league.

CHARGERS -3.5 over Buccaneers: Quietly, this is one of the most interesting games of the weekend. If Tampa Bay loses, they would need to win all three remaining divisional game—two against New Orleans and one against Carolina—to make the playoffs (assuming they lose against Dallas in two weeks). Despite that, I just don’t think they can get another top-notch defensive performance against Philip Rivers, who has quietly put together one of the better seasons in the league. Normally I love going against San Diego at home, but this has the makings of a game they should win—and cover—with the Bucs’ luck ready to run out.

Redskins +2.5 over CARDINALS: Carson Palmer ranks 25^th in DYAR, 24^th in DVOA and 23^rd in QBR. If the Cardinals go down by two scores early, they aren’t coming back. Rob Kelley is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and Kirk Cousins is on his way to 4,000 yards thanks to one of the best receiving corps in football[1]. In other words, the Redskins can get up by two scores.

Giants +6 over STEELERS: I picked the Steelers to miss the playoffs at the beginning of the year and still think it’s unlikely that they’re playing in January. It’s not just that the defense isn’t good enough (it isn’t), the offense has suffered more than anyone expected from losing Martavis Bryant. Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell are great, but it’s tough to be an incredible offensive team when you’re relying on two skill position players to do everything. Eli Rogers is interesting in the long-term, but he’s been too inconsistent to make a big difference this year. Against a team like New York that can win at the line of scrimmage, slow down the run and do a passable job covering Brown, it’s just too hard for Pittsburgh to move the ball.

SEAHAWKS -7 over Panthers: With Justin Britt likely back at center, Seattle’s offensive line can survive just enough at home for them to eke out a cover. Expect constant pressure on both quarterbacks, but with Michael Bennett expected to return for Seattle and Ryan Kalil—and backup center Gino Gradkowski—out for the Panthers, things could get ugly for Cam Newton and whatever run game Carolina has salvaged this season.

Colts -2 over JETS: The Jets may look appealing after last week, but remember that they’ve played the Patriots close ever since Rex Ryan became their head coach all the way back in 2009. This line is an overreaction to that—as long as Andrew Luck plays, this game will be a blowout.

 

Last Week: 7-8-1

Season: 96-76-5

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] Jamison Crowder is averaging 6.29 YAC per reception according to NFL GSIS. That’s not the highest among receivers—Golden Tate, Ty Montgomery, Adam Humphries, Cordarrelle Patterson and Randall Cobb all have more—but when you factor in that his average reception is caught 6.89 yards away from the line of scrimmage, it’s easily the most impressive. In light of this, can we make Crowder’s nickname “YAC God”?

Week 12 Preview: Thanksgiving Watchability Rankings

Welcome to the annual Thanksgiving Watchability Rankings. These rankings are based solely on how fun it is to watch a given team—win-loss record is not taken into account, though better teams are often more fun to watch, nor is any statistical factor. Let’s get right to it.

Tier 7: Avoid under all circumstances

32. Los Angeles Rams
33. San Francisco 49ers
34. New York Jets
35. Jacksonville Jaguars
36. Cleveland Browns
37. Chicago Bears
38. Houston Texans

If you’re watching one of these teams, strap in for a long game. Bad quarterbacks consume each of them, which offset any redeeming value they should have as a team. Take out the revolving door of misery at quarterback and the Browns, for example, are sort of fun. Terrelle Pryor does things, Isaiah Crowell is a good, physical running back and Hue Jackson is an inventive coach. But alas, Josh McCown and Cody Kessler will get the majority of snaps at quarterback this year, confining their offense to stagnation. There are similar situations for just about every team in this tier—it serves as a reminder that teams like Denver are the exception, not the rule. If you’re going to compete, quarterbacks are pretty damn important.

Tier 6: Competitive but boring

25. Indianapolis Colts
26. Green Bay Packers
27. Tennessee Titans
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
29. Miami Dolphins

Seeing the Colts and Packers here may surprise people, but both teams are sloppy, badly coached and lacking in any redeeming value outside of the quarterback position. In Indianapolis, Andrew Luck rarely has time to throw the ball and while Aaron Rodgers often has ample time, no Packers receiver can get open downfield. The Titans should be higher up, but they play such a primitive style that if the offense isn’t humming, it can be hard to sit through. Tampa and Miami are less interesting on paper—and have less upside in watchability—but things are more consistent in both places.

Tier 5: Meh

20. Cincinnati Bengals
21. Arizona Cardinals
22. Baltimore Ravens

None of these teams is particularly awe-inspiring, but each of them will give you a decent game to watch. The Bengals may slide in the wake of injuries to A.J. Green, their most dynamic player, and Giovani Bernard—I dropped them from 18 to 20 and it may have been too generous—but Tyler Eifert gets rolling, it’s mesmerizing football. The Cardinals and Ravens aren’t particularly fun offensively, but consistently play competitive games. Plus, who doesn’t love to watch Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Smith put the rest of the NFL to shame?

Tier 4: Sure, why not?

17. Detroit Lions
18. Minnesota Vikings
19. New York Giants
20. Philadelphia Eagles
21. Carolina Panthers
22. Washington Redskins

Other than Minnesota (and arguably Philly), every team in this tier is capable of moving the ball on offense and other than Carolina, every team in this tier is going to be playing meaningful games over the next month. I’m particularly optimistic about Washington’s watchability—Jay Gruden has quietly built up one of the best skill position groups in the league. There aren’t any superstars (though if Rob Kelley continues on his current pace, he will be one soon), but it’s impossible to defend Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon, Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson all at once. There’s just too much talent on the field—and Kirk Cousins often has his pick of where to throw.

Tier 4: Good defense, bad offense

11. Kansas City Chiefs
12. Buffalo Bills

Kansas City and Buffalo remind us every week that defense is fun too. Marcus Peters is the cornerback version of Barry Sanders—you’re getting either an awe-inspiring interception or a badly blown coverage with little room for moderation. They also got Justin Houston back last week to improve the pass rush, which had lagged a bit in his absence. The Bills have set the standard in terms of rushing the passer this season, leading the league in adjusted sack rate. Both teams have enough dynamism offensively to keep you entertained as well. It’s fun to watch LeSean McCoy and Spencer Ware run the ball. Alex Smith isn’t tossing many deep balls, but Tyrod Taylor can still drop one or two dimes per game, even without Sammy Watkins.

Tier 3: Good offense, bad defense

9. New Orleans Saints
10. Atlanta Falcons

The Saints are fifth in offensive DVOA and 24^th in defensive DVOA; Atlanta is second in offensive DVOA and 27^th in defensive DVOA. That doesn’t just mean fun offense, it means high-scoring games, like the Packers-Falcons game that ended 33-32 in Week 8—one of the better matchups this season. Watching Drew Brees and Matt Ryan work in the pocket is a treat—both operate efficiently and surgically. The Falcons have bigger names at the skill positions—Julio Jones does things that humans shouldn’t be capable of on a weekly basis—but the Saints have quietly put together a decent run game and turned unknowns like Michael Thomas into weapons at wide receiver.

Tier 2: Stop what you’re doing to watch

7. Denver Broncos
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
9. San Diego Chargers
10. Seattle Seahawks
11. New England Patriots

I don’t think the Steelers or Chargers are making the playoffs, but both have partaken in some of the best games this season. The Steelers-Cowboys game two weeks ago is on the shortlist for Game of the Year and when healthy, the Pittsburgh moves the ball like no other team. The Roethlisberger-Bell-Brown combination is lethel to most defenses—we haven’t gotten many instances this year of all three being 100 percent, but there will be more in the next month. In San Diego, Philip Rivers has cemented himself as arguably the most underrated players in football. And Rivers isn’t marching the Chargers downfield, they’re often imploding—San Diego has lost more heartbreakers this year than you can count. Denver isn’t the best offensive team in the league, but Von Miller’s ability on defense more than makes up for it. In New England and Seattle, you get high-quality football through and through. They are the two best teams in football—it’s always must-see when either comes across your television.

Tier 1: Dallas and Oakland

2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Oakland Raiders

Oakland gets the top spot because they play more close games—they even made the Texans palatable on Monday night—but both of these teams are offensive machines. Dallas can put Ezekiel Elliott behind their offensive line and guarantee fireworks on any drive while Derek Carr can rip it to Oakland’s All-Star cast of wideouts and do the same. Forget about measuring these teams against the rest of football—watching these two offenses at work is one of the most enjoyable experiences you’ll have this year.

On to the picks.

Week 12 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Vikings +1.5 over LIONS: The central question to every Vikings game is whether their offensive line can function. The Lions rank 18^th in adjusted sack rate and 24^th in adjusted line yards, but Kerry Hyder is their only starting lineman with a PFF grade above 51.3. I’m not as worried about Minnesota being on the road since Ford Field is indoors and it’s a short week, which means all conventional wisdom can be thrown out the window. As long Minnesota’s line holds up, they should win this game outright.

COWBOYS -7 over Redskins: I thought Baltimore was the perfect foil for Dallas last week and for the first half, I was right. Then the Cowboys essentially moved the ball at will in the second half and I realized that it’s almost impossible to stop this team from moving the ball for an entire game. I don’t think the Redskins can win a shootout—it’s an especially short turnaround for them after playing on Sunday night and Dallas is good enough defensively to prevent the big plays that Washington thrived on against Green Bay.

Steelers -9 over COLTS: The Colts rank 31^st in defensive DVOA and Scott Tolzien is playing quarterback for them. There is no reason this line shouldn’t be at least 13.5 points[1].

Chargers -1.5 over TEXANS: Brock Osweiler currently ranks dead last among qualified quarterbacks with -448 DYAR. Second worst is Ryan Fitzpatrick with -360 DYAR. In short, don’t put money on Brock Osweiler.

Titans -5 over BEARS: Matt Barkley’s career stats: 36/65, 381 yards, 0 TDs, 6 INTs, 1.12 adjusted net yards per attempt. If you thought the quality of the quarterback position was bad, this will not be a fun week for you.

BILLS -7.5 over Jaguars: Jacksonville is 23^rd in run defense DVOA and 32^nd in power success. Now they have to go to Buffalo—where the high temperature will be 42 degrees according to AccuWeather—and stop the best rushing attack in the league by DVOA. For once, Blake Bortles won’t be the biggest reason for a Jacksonville loss.

Bengals +4 over RAVENS: The Bengals have won just one game since Week 5 and I don’t expect that this will be the second. However, this line seems like a bit of an overreaction to A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard being injured. Baltimore is a bad offensive team—even against a mediocre Bengals defense, they’ll struggle to move the ball. In a low-scoring game, I like the underdog.

FALCONS -4 over Cardinals: I’m not going to try to explain this phenomena, but the Cardinals are consistently awful on the East Coast. They haven’t won a game in the Eastern time zone since Week 8 of last season—against the Browns. With Carson Palmer finding it impossible to replicate his MVP-caliber 2015, I don’t love Arizona in this matchup either way, but they just can’t play on the East Coast.

DOLPHINS -7.5 over 49ers: Over the past few weeks, Miami has convinced me that they’re at least a playoff contender. There’s trap game potential here, but this is still a must-win game if the Dolphins are to keep that status. If they lose, their playoff odds drop to 22 percent, per the NYT Upshot simulator, with games coming against Baltimore and Arizona that would turn into must-win contests.

Rams +7 over SAINTS: Jared Goff was, um, uninspiring last week, but that’s almost to be expected in his debut—especially when things have been so horribly mismanaged. He gets to face a bad defense this week—for all the credit New Orleans has gotten; they still rank 24^th in defensive DVOA—and the Rams can slow down the Saints enough to keep it close. They have arguably the best run defense in football and their secondary will hold up if Aaron Donald and co can pressure Drew Brees with some consistency.

Giants -7 over BROWNS: Watching Josh McCown is one of the most depressing experiences you can have as a football fan. The Browns have at least been feisty at times with Cody Kessler under center, but kicking off with McCown as your starter is like signing a declaration of war underneath a white flag. Here’s to Robert Griffin III returning soon.

Seahawks -6 over BUCCANEERS: The Seahawks have taken the top spot in DVOA and they are playing like the best team in football. Russell Wilson is healthy, the defense looks great (with Michael Bennett potentially returning this week) and the offensive line is playing at a semi-acceptable level. I can’t see Jameis Winston keeping it close against this defense at full strength—the only way the Bucs cover is by consistently getting pressure, forcing Wilson to break the pocket and make plays with his legs, where the injury may still be taking a toll. However, Tampa is a mediocre 15^th in adjusted sack rate, so that seems unlikely.

Panthers +3 over RAIDERS: Oakland’s defense is going to be a liability for them in games like this. Carolina is coming off 10 days rest while the Raiders are on six days rest after playing on a Monday night in Mexico City. That doesn’t bode well for a team that ranks 29^th in defensive DVOA. Furthermore, the Raiders can’t match up with Greg Olsen and will struggle against a strong receiving corps. Sure, they may be able to keep up on the opposite end, but Carolina’s defense is significantly better—even without Luke Kuechly—and their secondary has put it together for the past few weeks.

Patriots -7.5 over JETS: Thank god they flexed this game out of prime time. Ryan Fitzpatrick on Sunday Night Football would have been an unmitigated disaster for all parties involved.

Chiefs +3 over BRONCOS: This game will come down to two things: defense and field position. The Broncos have the best defense in the league, but KC has the edge in field position. The Chiefs are also going to turn the ball over less—one of few positive outcomes resulting from Alex Smith being their quarterback. There is a clear advantage for Denver defensively, but the Chiefs are barely outside the top-10 in DVOA and Trevor Siemian isn’t exactly picking teams apart. This game is close to a toss-up, but I give it to the Chiefs by a hair.

Packers +4 over EAGLES: If the Wentz Wagon was in the Oregon Trail game, everyone on it would have contracted dysentery over the past few weeks—the rookie quarterback has thrown two touchdowns and four interceptions in the past three games with a paltry 58.59 completion percentage. Nobody’s dying yet—that wagon made it pretty far before people started getting sick—but prospects are grim.

 

Last Week: 8-5-1

Season: 89-68-4

All stats are from pro-football reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] Isn’t a Steelers/Giants/Patriots 6-point teaser the easiest bet of the year? How is the Pittsburgh line not higher solely to prevent people from betting their life savings on that tease?

Week 11 Preview: Eulogizing Tony Romo's career

One of my earliest football memories is walking into Sal’s Pizzeria in Mamaroneck as the 2007 NFC Divisional Round game between the Giants and Cowboys was nearing its conclusion. Dallas had the ball near the red zone with no timeouts left, needing a score to win. I stood by the counter watching as the Tony Romo threw two incomplete passes then, on 4^th and 11, was intercepted by R.W. McQuarters in the end zone.

My first memory of Tony Romo is the same as the memory of him that will endure among many as the years pass: choking away a game the Cowboys—7-point favorites in this specific matchup—should have won. And that’s unfortunate. Romo’s failures on the biggest stages—dropping the snap against Seattle, the McQuarters interception, two Week 17 losses that decided the division and even the playoff game in Green Bay two years ago—will forever overshadow the fact that for eight seasons—2006-2014[1]—he turned the Cowboys into a respectable team despite a supporting cast that was often forgettable at best. When finally given a good team to play with, Romo turned the Cowboys into a Super Bowl contender, turning in MVP-type numbers in 2014 and directing the best offense in the league. In 2015, when he could have followed up on that year, Romo instead suffered an injury. In 2016, when he could have redeemed himself yet again, another injury sunk his season and allowed him to be supplanted by Dak Prescott, likely ending any chance Romo had of winning a title as a starter.

After his press conference yesterday, I decided to pull up a comparison of Romo and Dan Marino, just for kicks. Marino played nearly 100 more games so the counting stats aren’t close except for sacks—Romo is just 28 behind Marino, an apt metaphor for his career. In terms of rate stats—completion percentage, passer rating, yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt—Romo nearly sweeps the entire board. Things are easier for quarterbacks now than in the ‘80s and ‘90s when Marino played, both from a coaching and rules perspective, so if you want to throw that comparison out then go ahead, but there are probably few quarterbacks with more similar careers. And I don’t know if Marino was seen as a choker the way Romo is, but if he played today I can guarantee that Miami’s 8-10 record with him in the postseason—along with the fact that they made it to the Divisional Round the year after he retired—would dominate the conversation around him, just as similar shortcomings will dominate the conversation around Romo for the rest of time.

On to the picks.

Week 11 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Saints +3.5 over PANTHERS: Carolina’s playoff chances are being vastly overstated right now. They are 3-6, in last place in the NFC South, with a bad secondary and offensive line. Their playoff chances don’t hinge on this game—their playoff chances are already dead. New Orleans isn’t particularly trustworthy in this game either—the 29^th ranked defense by DVOA on the road with a short week doesn’t inspire confidence, but the Saints can win a shootout, or at least keep it close enough to cover, if necessary.

Titans +3 over COLTS: They may not be able to overcome a 1.5-game deficit, but the Titans are the best team in the AFC South and it is not close. Marcus Mariota looks great, even with the Mike Mularkey-induced handicap he ranks 10^th in DYAR and 11^th in DVOA among quarterbacks. The Colts won’t be able to get pressure against a line that has quietly been one of the best in football and Tennessee will be able to move the ball at will against the 31^st-ranked defense by DVOA. The Titans should win this game outright, let alone against the spread.

LIONS -6.5 over Jaguars: Is there really much explanation needed after this? 

CHIEFS -7.5 over Buccaneers: According to FiveThirtyEight's Elo ratings, the Chiefs are the second-best team in football, with the third-best chance to win the Super Bowl. I would not go that far, but Kansas City is a lot better than people think—the defense has ranked top-10 in DVOA without Justin Houston, and even though the offense is far from inspiring, it is good enough to win on a given week. I do not trust Jameis Winston for a second on the road against a great defense—he has played well as of late, but the Bucs have had an easy schedule for the past few weeks. If his play continues this week and next week—against Seattle—then I’ll buy Jameis stock, but until then I’m holding off.

GIANTS -7.5 over Bears: After Jay Cutler’s recent performances and Mike Freeman reporting that most of the locker room has given up on their quarterback, I’m surprised that this line is still in the single digits. At this point, it’s pretty hard to fathom the Bears even competing on the road against a potential playoff team—even if the Giants have a history of blowing games like this one.

VIKINGS over Cardinals (pick’em): I would not touch this game with a 10-foot pole. The Vikings are still reeling after losing their fourth straight game and Arizona’s offense was horrific against the 49ers last week (along with every other opponent they have played this year). I think Minnesota can win a low-scoring game because their special teams are significantly better, but I do not have much faith in them after the past few weeks.

Bills +3 over BENGALS: The Bills can win this game outright. Cincinnati is vulnerable on the offensive line and Buffalo leads the league in adjusted sack rate already. Offensively, the Bills can move the ball with the run game—Cincy ranks 20^th in run defense DVOA—and Tyrod Taylor is good enough to throw deep against a Bengals’ defense that ranks 29^th in DVOA against deep balls. The Bengals are a better team on paper, but the matchup favors the Bills.

Ravens +7 over COWBOYS: If any team in the league can slow down the Cowboys’ offense, it’s the Baltimore Ravens. John Harbaugh’s squad has the best run defense in the league by DVOA and is just outside the top-5 in pass defense DVOA. Dallas’ offensive line may be good enough that it won’t matter, but if the Ravens can force Dak Prescott to operate without a run game—and potentially without a lead—it will take the rookie out of his comfort zone and could force a few mistakes out of him. If their offense isn’t playing at a high level, the Cowboys cannot depend on their defense—even against Joe Flacco and a lackluster Baltimore offense. Expect this one to be close—and be on the lookout for an upset.

Steelers -8 over BROWNS: Unless the Browns can pull off a major upset, they are not winning a game this year. Their remaining schedule consists of two games against the Steelers, a visit to Buffalo and home games against the Giants, Bengals and Chargers. If you can find a win in there, you’re a lot more creative than I am.

Dolphins -1.5 over RAMS: Quietly, the Dolphins sit at sixth place in DVOA. It looks like whichever two teams don’t win the AFC West between Oakland, Denver and Kansas City have the wild cards locked up, but if those teams cannibalize each other’s playoff chances, Miami can sneak in there.

Patriots -13 over 49ERS: We’re at the point in the season where it’s tenuous to write about why the 49ers are bad. Give credit to the coaching staff for keeping a few games close, like last week at Arizona or Week 4 against Dallas, but the quarterback matchup alone gives the Patriots an insurmountable edge in this game.

Eagles +6.5 over SEAHAWKS: Seattle is going to struggle against teams that can dominate the line of scrimmage. Cris Collinsworth destroyed Bill Simmons for this tweet, but Simmons' overall point was correct—the Seahawks look much better offensively against teams that can’t rush the passer. The Eagles—unlike New England—are a team that features numerous standout pass rushers. They rank second in adjusted sack rate while Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham both rank at the top-5 at their position by PFF grading (Graham ranks first among edge rushers). It won’t be easy for Philly to score either—facing Seattle on the road isn’t the best situation for Carson Wentz—but if they can play good defense then they should at least cover.

REDSKINS -2.5 over Packers: I don’t feel great about this game, but Green Bay’s only win since Week 5 was against the Bears. Things look a little better against the spread (they covered in Week 8 against Atlanta), but their defense is struggling and I have no faith in Mike McCarthy’s offense to win games on its own, despite the greatness of Aaron Rodgers.

Raiders -5.5 over Texans (N): Normally I’d be wary of picking Oakland against a good defense with a spread this big, but their offensive line played so well against the Broncos that any worries about Houston’s pass rush have been put to bed. It will be fun to see A.J. Bouye work against Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, but that may be the only matchup that falls in Houston’s favor on the defensive side of the ball[2]. As for the other side of the ball, Brock Osweiler is so bad that the Texans may not even be able to move the ball against one of the worst defensive units in the league.

 

Last Week: 9-5-0

Season: 81-63-3

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] He played just six games in 2010

[2] If Whitney Mercilus goes up against Austin Howard for most of the game, then that’s a second.

Week 10 Preview: Football is weird to think about right now, but it's a necessary distraction

If you’ve ever stopped to wonder why we as a collective population spend so much of our time, energy and wherewithal on stupid little games—watching men on a field hit each other, a ball or throw that ball through a hoop—today is your answer. Baseball—the oldest professional sporting institution in the country—was invented during the Civil War, acting as somewhat of a uniting factor between Union and Confederate soldiers, an escape from the horrors of the battlefield and the sharp divides of geography. Now, once again, sports will take up its role as an escape from reality.

As odd as it feels to write, or even to think about football right now, every second we spend on a matter as trivial as the Super Bowl is a second we spend on something other pessimism or disagreements. As stupid as it is to occupy our time rooting for logos, which mean nothing in reality, there is no time perhaps since 2001 during which that stupidity has been more necessary.

Let’s get on to the picks.

Week 10 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

RAVENS -10 over Browns: In this week’s edition of “Why are NFL ratings down?” the Cleveland Browns are on Thursday Night Football. As of this time, we are still wondering why NFL ratings are down.

Texans -1.5 over JAGUARS: Blake Bortles has melted down against worse defenses than Houston—he played like Jon Kitna against the Titans two weeks ago. If we are only counting unquestioned starters[1], Bortles may be the worst quarterback in football. The Jaguars cannot run the ball and they cannot play defense. They are nearing the point where it is irresponsible to pick them against most teams when the spread is less than 10 points.

Chiefs +3 over PANTHERS: There is a built-in bias against quarterbacks like Alex Smith that make the Chiefs a strong bet here. As uninspiring as their offense is, Kansas City can move the ball against a bad Panthers’ secondary. People are overreacting to Carolina’s last few games—remember that they can struggle in the trenches against teams like Kansas City and if their makeshift secondary does not hold up, it’s game over.

Broncos +2 over SAINTS: Not to be hyperbolic, but this line is flat-out wrong. Denver is a 2.5-point favorite on FiveThirtyEight and even that seems low. The Saints will not beat the Broncos in the trenches the way Oakland did last week, nor will a second straight bad defense play well against Denver. The public still has not caught on to the fact that Denver remains a Super Bowl contender and until it does, the Broncos are a strong bet every week.

JETS -2 over Rams:  There is no reason for either team to start the quarterback they plan to start in this game. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Case Keenum have been completely awful and have tanked the playoff chances of their respective teams. The Jets may as well go with Bryce Petty and the Rams may as well go with Jared Goff, if for no other reason than to see if they can play. Also, I am changing my pick if either team makes that change.

Falcons over EAGLES (pick’em): With Wentz still hitting the rookie wall, it’s tough to see how the Eagles can win without stopping the best offense in the league by DVOA. As good as Philadelphia is defensively, they do not have anyone capable of covering Julio Jones. Unless they can pressure Matt Ryan with regularity—a tough ask against a strong Atlanta offensive line—the Eagles will fall victim to Atlanta for the second time in as many years.

REDSKINS -3 over Vikings: I’m going against my gut here, solely because I want to be sure that the Vikings are not collapsing before picking them in a game like this, where the line is suspiciously low and Minnesota is on the road.

Packers -2.5 over TITANS: The Titans currently rank 26^th in defensive DVOA and 27^th in pass defense DVOA. That is not a good formula for stopping Aaron Rodgers.

BUCCANEERS over Bears (pick’em): It is make-it-or-break-it time for Jameis Winston. The Bucs should be winning games like this with him at the helm without much trouble—the mere fact that this is a pick’em is a bad sign. However, Tampa should win this game. Winston is capable of throwing the ball against a team featuring De’Vante Bausby and Tracy Porter in the secondary and if Doug Martin returns, they can run the ball too. Whether or not their defense can hold up is another matter, but if they lose this, at home, then we have to begin to reevaluate Jameis Winston.

Dolphins +4 over CHARGERS: A small but notable portion of last night: San Diego’s stadium initiative failed to pass, meaning that, in all likelihood, they will move to Los Angeles. Whatever small home-field advantage they had before will evaporate as the team undertakes its death march toward the end of the season. That march starts this week.

CARDINALS -13.5 over 49ers: San Francisco is officially in Cleveland territory from a betting standpoint, meaning that it is not smart to put money on them unless the line is outrageous. This line is not outrageous given how badly Colin Kaepernick played in Arizona last year, not to mention how badly he played last week; therefore, it is not smart to put money on the 49ers.

Cowboys +2.5 over STEELERS: The Cowboys will score at will against a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 19^th in DVOA. The quarterback question has been answered with Dallas ranking second in offensive DVOA and first in weighted offensive DVOA through nine weeks. And if you are about to tell me that the Steelers can play good run defense, you should know that by DVOA the Cowboys are significantly better at throwing the ball than running it. Normally, I would have qualms about their defense on the road in this type of game, but it looks like Pittsburgh rushed Ben Roethlisberger back a few weeks too soon. I plan on proceeding with caution until Roethlisberger looks like himself again.

PATRIOTS -7.5 over Seahawks: This line is too high, but I have said that twice about New England this year and both times, I was wrong. That was with Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett playing quarterback—this time it’s with Tom Brady. The lesson from those first two times: Do not underestimate New England. No matter what.

Bengals +2 over GIANTS: Maybe I’m sticking with the Bengals a few weeks too long, but I still have not seen a good reason as to why they are struggling—thus continue to believe that they will turn it around. I do not trust Janoris Jenkins to cover A.J. Green in the slightest and the Giants will not get bailed out by bad coaching on the other side and untimely interceptions for the second week in a row. Even if the opposing quarterback is Andy Dalton.

 

Last Week: 5-7-1

Season:  72-58-3

 

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] Which is to say, eliminating Cody Kessler and Colin Kaepernick.

Week 9 Preview: Coaches in Danger

We are roughly halfway through the NFL season and there has not been a single head coach fired. That is an upset in its own right, but if history is any indication, there are firings coming soon. This week, I decided to go over the most likely firings. Let’s get right to it.

Chuck Pagano: I picked Pagano before the season to be the first coach fired and I am standing by it, even as Gus Bradley implodes in Jacksonville. There were real expectations in Indianapolis, this year and last, and the Colts are languishing in third place in a division that may not feature a winning team this year. Injuries provided a valid excuse in 2015, but there are no such issues this year. Yet, the Colts are 3-5 heading into this week. Without a miracle win at Lambeau this week, I do not see how the Colts retain Pagano heading into their bye week.

Gus Bradley: There are no excuses left for Bradley, whose career record sits at 14-41 after four years—2016 being the first with expectations. Firing offensive coordinator Greg Olson may buy Bradley some time, but it’s not so much a matter of “if” but “when” Bradley is canned.

Mike McCoy: My assumption is that McCoy will be fired after the season once the Chargers begin to transition for their move to Los Angeles[1]. That would be a sensible time to make a coaching change, though if the Chargers think they can contend then I would advise a change now. McCoy is not an Andy Reid-type coach in close games—there is not one thing he is particularly bad at like clock management—but San Diego has constantly lost close games under him. Some of it—like botched snaps on field goals—does not stem from coaching, but there have been mistakes made leading up to those moments in droves. At a certain point, those mistakes pile up and a change must be made.

Jeff Fisher: Jeff Fisher will never be fired, but it does not change the fact that he is a horrific head coach. This has only been reinforced by the Rams standing by Case Keenum as if Jared Goff—the #1 overall pick in the draft that they traded a massive amount of draft capital in order to obtain—is JaMarcus Russell reincarnate.

Let’s get to the picks.

Week 9 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus odds are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Falcons -4 over BUCCANEERS: Without any of their top-3 running backs, Tampa Bay will have to depend on Jameis Winston to provide their offense this week. The problem is that Winston is mistake-prone; having thrown nine picks thus far, and is outside the top-20 in both DYAR and DVOA. The Bucs can win this in a shootout, but I do not trust their 22^nd-ranked offense in DVOA to keep it close.

CHIEFS -7.5 over Jaguars: I thought long and hard about picking Jacksonville here—it’s tempting with Nick Foles starting and serious trap game potential—but picking the Jaguars on the road is just stupid at this point. They may cover, but it is just irresponsible to pick Blake Bortles to cover on the road—even against Nick Foles.

Lions +6 over VIKINGS: The Vikings are in a free fall right now. I initially thought they could climb out of it this week—and they still may win—but Norv Turner resigning this morning is a big deal, even if Sam Bradford worked with Pat Shurmur in Philly. Detroit’s defense is awful, but their one area of competency is the pass rush—Kerry Hyder has come onto the scene this year with five sacks and both Ziggy Ansah and Haloti Ngata can be disruptive forces against a truly horrific Minnesota offensive line. In what should be a low-scoring game, the Lions can cover on the road.

Eagles +2.5 over GIANTS: Until the Giants’ offense really starts to click; they are not going to beat the best defensive team in the league by DVOA. New York has talent, but Eli Manning has struggled and Ben McAdoo’s system has been an unmitigated disaster this season. This is a must-win game for both teams, but the Eagles are simply a better team in every facet of the game.

Cowboys -7 over BROWNS: New England is not playing this week and I do not feel this pick needs much explanation, so I am going to use this space to talk about the Jamie Collins trade because I do not understand what the Patriots were thinking. I do not care if the Patriots were not going to resign him and I do not care if he was not playing quite as well as he normally does. Jamie Collins is a top-10 linebacker—arguably, a top-10 defensive player in general—and trading him makes the Patriots markedly worse on defense. For analysts who may or may not be friends with Bill Belichick (cough*Mike Lombardi*cough) to say Collins was playing badly and New England’s defense needed fixing is utterly ridiculous. He had a bad game against Buffalo and maybe he was freelancing—I do not know what plays Matt Patricia is calling—but acting like trading one of the best defensive players in the league “fixes” New England’s defense is flat-out stupid. The Patriots are top-10 in yardage and top-5 in points on defense. Those numbers paper over some issues, but the linebacker position is not one of them. Obviously, Bill Belichick is smarter than I am and knows what he is doing and the Patriots will probably win the Super Bowl regardless, but New England’s PR campaign against Collins is shameful.

DOLPHINS -3.5 over Jets: The Dolphins are 18^th in DVOA and playing at home after their two best wins in recent memory and a bye week. The Jets are 31^st in DVOA and playing on the road after they struggled to beat Cleveland. New York is also trotting out Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, someone whom the organization seems to have no faith in whatsoever (with good reason). If there is a reason to take the Jets this week, I have not found it.

Steelers +3 over RAVENS: According to reports today, it seems likely that Ben Roethlisberger will play this week in which case the Steelers should win outright and this line will probably move to a pick’em. If Roethlisberger does not play, I may change my pick but if this line is still three when this publishes, people should jump on it immediately.

49ERS +3.5 over Saints: New Orleans is coming off games in Kansas City and against Seattle. After this week, they play Denver and go to Carolina. This is a trap game and the Saints will fall victim.

Panthers -3 over RAMS: The Panthers are not a bad offensive team—they rank 14^th in offensive DVOA and Jonathan Stewart should play which means good things are to come. As long as Case Keenum is under center, the Rams are ill equipped to take advantage of Carolina’s secondary deficiencies. Without being able to throw the ball, it is tough to beat Carolina and the Rams cannot throw the ball.

PACKERS -7 over Colts: Aaron Rodgers had a 125.5 passer rating last week so I guess it turns out his career is not finished. With Green Bay’s offense back to normal—, which is to say that Rodgers is making up for all of Mike McCarthy’s flaws as a coach again—they will not have any trouble scoring against an awful Indy defense. On the other side of the ball, Green Bay can dominate at the line of scrimmage enough to prevent Andrew Luck from wreaking too much havoc—a formula good enough to cover.

Titans +5 over CHARGERS: This game intrigues me because I am still not sure what to make of the Titans. A win here would put them ½ games out in the AFC South and I think there is enough talent on the roster to win a bad division. Whether or not that talent can overcome Mike Mularkey’s coaching is another question, but this game could be an indicator. I do not know if they can win, but I think they keep it close against disaster-prone Chargers.

Broncos over RAIDERS (pick’em): The Raiders are going to struggle against good defenses and the Broncos’ unit is a hell of a lot better than good. Denver can move the ball against the Raiders’ defense—which ranks 28^th in DVOA—without much trouble and Oakland has penalty issues across the board. FiveThirtyEight has Denver as three-point favorite, an assessment that makes sense given that Denver is on the road.

Bills +7 over SEAHAWKS: Until Russell Wilson gets fully healthy; it is going to be tough for Seattle to manufacture offense. Their offensive line will not hold up well against a Bills team ranked second in adjusted sack rate and if Wilson is not able to create things out of the blue, the Seahawks will not be able to move the ball. They can still win in a low-scoring game, but the Bills should cover regardless.

 

Last Week: 6-7-0

Season: 67-51-2

 

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] Yes, I am also assuming that San Diego votes not to fund the team’s stadium next week and the team moves.

Week 7 Preview: Taking stock of quarterback controversies

It’s only been six weeks and quarterback controversies are in our midst. As of today, four teams have legitimate dilemmas as to who they’ll start for their next game. For this week’s column, I’m making the case for each quarterback and coming to a conclusion as to who should start. Let’s get right into it.

Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott: It’s pretty tough to make a good case against Prescott. Not only is the Cowboys’ offense first in DVOA, it’s third in passing DVOA. Yes, Prescott’s young and could regress, but sitting him now would be like leaving a card table after a royal flush. If things falter, you can always turn back to Romo, but there isn’t any evidence that they will.

Tony Romo: It’s easy to forget that the last time Tony Romo was healthy for an extended period of time, he was an MVP candidate. He led the league in completion percentage; touchdown percentage, yards per passing attempt, passer rating and QBR in 2014. The Cowboys may have been in the NFC Championship Game if not for a questionable call in Divisional Round game against Green Bay. You know what you’re getting in Romo—as long as he stays healthy, the Cowboys will be in the mix.

Verdict: Let it ride and keep Dak Prescott.

New York Jets

Ryan Fitzpatrick: Yes, Fitzpatrick is playing terribly now, but let’s not forget that the Jets were a near-playoff team last season with him at the helm. If they have even a slight chance of getting back into contention this season, they need keep Fitzpatrick in and hope things get fixed.

Geno Smith: Remember that one game against Atlanta in Week 5 of 2013? That was a pretty good game, right? Maybe he can play like that again.

Other: The Jets are 1-5; they might as well try out one of their two rookie quarterbacks. They spent a 4^th round pick on Bryce Petty last year and a 2^nd round pick on Christian Hackenberg this year. It’s unlikely that either one turns into much, but the Jets might as well see what they have. If nothing else, at least they can go into the offseason knowing which quarterback of the four on their roster will be cut before next season.

Verdict: Other, if only because chaos is fun.

San Francisco 49ers

Blaine Gabbert: Even if the ceiling is lower for Gabbert, the floor is much higher. At minimum, the 49ers will have a functional offense most of the time. If you haven’t watched the 49ers this year, I promise that’s better than it sounds.

Colin Kaepernick: Things are much more interesting with Kaepernick in. Sure, he could (and probably will) implode, but he at least has some arm strength and can be a threat running the ball. Why not roll the dice?

Verdict: Kaepernick. At least they may have a chance to win a game or two.

Chicago Bears

Jay Cutler: As bad as he’s played this year, there’s a higher ceiling for Cutler. The Bears were a good offense last season, ranking 10^th in DVOA. Hoyer’s Texans were 24^th with a supporting cast that was arguably better than Chicago’s. Both will lose some games for you, but Cutler has the ability to win them.

Brian Hoyer: Since Hoyer has seen significant snaps, starting in Week 3, Chicago’s offensive DVOA has gotten significantly better. Per Football Outsiders’ premium data, in the two games prior the Bears were over 20 percent below average offensively and in the four games Hoyer has started they have not been worse than four percent below average. Historically, Cutler has been the better quarterback, but today it’s clear that Hoyer is significantly better.

Verdict: Hoyer. Their offense doesn’t function well with either, but it’s clearly improved with Hoyer. Also, if Cutler sits then we get shots of him pouting on the bench during every game.

Week 7 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

PACKERS -7.5 over Bears: This line is an overreaction to the Packers getting embarrassed on what was essentially a nationally televised game. While Aaron Rodgers was having his worst game in recent memory, the Bears melted down and lost to the Jaguars at home—a markedly worse loss than Green Bay’s. If you don’t get carried away with Rodgers’ struggles—he’s still Aaron Rodgers after all—and remember that the Bears are one of the worst teams in football by any objective measure, this isn’t that hard of a pick.

Giants -3 over Rams (N): Lost in Odell Beckham’s resurgence was the Giants’ defensive line looking great at times against Baltimore. If they can dominate the line of scrimmage on a weekly basis, New York will go places. The Rams got scored on at will against Detroit last week and we could easily see the same thing happen again if the Giants’ offense can continue playing well. Los Angeles has weaknesses across the board—a lack of a passing game and a flailing secondary to be exact—that the Giants can and will exploit.

Vikings -2.5 over EAGLES: Since 2015, the Vikings are 19-3-0 against the spread, the best record in the league by nearly 20 percentage points, per Team Rankings. Yet somehow, the Vikings are favored by less than a field goal against an Eagles team that played well above its level for the first three weeks of the season. I don’t understand why Minnesota isn’t being given more respect, but gamblers should take advantage of it while they can.

Saints +6.5 over CHIEFS: Per Team Rankings, the Saints are undefeated this year against the spread as an underdog and it’s easy to see why. Four of their five games have been decided by three points or less, a product of a great offense combined with a horrific defense. This seems like another one of those games, so take the points.

Redskins +1.5 over LIONS: I watched the Rams-Lions game last night and temporarily convinced myself that Case Keenum was a decent NFL quarterback. The Lions’ defense was so horrific it didn’t just make Case Keenum look competent, it made him look good. They are dead last in defensive DVOA, dead last in defensive DAVE, 31^st in pass defense DVOA and 26^th in run defense DVOA. If Case Keenum had an 84.38 completion percentage against them, imagine what Kirk Cousins is going to do.

BENGALS -9.5 over Browns: Rule 1: Don’t overthink. Picking the Browns on the road against a team contending for the playoffs is the definition of overthinking.

DOLPHINS +3 over Bills: I just feel that the Bills bandwagon is going to come to a halt at some point. At some point, they may prove me wrong, but it could be tough for them to run the ball this week against a Dolphins front featuring Ndamukong Suh. Miami has struggled in run defense thus far, but they rank eighth in power success and 12^th in stuff rate. Most of their troubles have come on the second level, but if they can win at the line of scrimmage that won’t make as much of a difference.

Raiders +1 over JAGUARS: The first time I saw this line, I thought it was a typo. Oakland is coming off a bad game, but they can move the ball in this matchup. Blake Bortles has been an utter disappointment—the single biggest reason the Jaguars have failed so miserably this year—and I can’t see them taking much advantage of Oakland’s defense. Jacksonville still has a road to winning the division because the AFC South is so horrific, but I can’t say I’m optimistic.

TITANS -2.5 over Colts: Normally, I would shy away from taking the Titans as favorites because of Mike Mularkey, but Chuck Pagano is nearly as bad. It’s astounding to me that neither he nor Ryan Grigson has been fired—the Colts are wasting a potential Hall of Fame quarterback’s prime years. At minimum, the Titans can run the ball with consistency and play acceptable defense. That alone may make them the best team in the AFC South.

Ravens +1 over JETS: This may be your last chance to bet against Geno Smith. Don’t let it slip by[1].

FALCONS -6.5 over Chargers: I’m buying Falcons stock. There are some defensive issues, but Atlanta has a lot of offensive firepower, ranking first in offensive DAVE so far. They played an impressive game at Seattle last week and may have won if not for a missed pass interference call on their last offensive snap. The Falcons can move the ball at will against San Diego—the Chargers may be able to keep it close for a while but Atlanta should pull away by the end.

Buccaneers -2 over 49ERS: Until a 49ers’ quarterback, be it Blaine Gabbert or Colin Kaepernick, plays a semi-acceptable game, nobody should bet on them if the spread is less than one score.

Patriots -7 over STEELERS: Remember in Week 1 of last season when the Steelers were completely incapable of covering Rob Gronkowski? A big part of that was New England going to a two tight end formation in the red zone, something they continued to do for the early part of 2015 with great success. Now that New England has Martellus Bennett, those sets are back and better than ever. With Landry Jones filling in for Roethlisberger, this has some blowout potential.

Seahawks +2 over CARDINALS: It might be time to worry about Carson Palmer. He ranks 24^th in both DYAR and DVOA, 22^nd in QBR and has gone from a league-leading 8.41 adjusted net yards per attempt last season to 6.06 this season. The Cardinals can still make the playoffs, but unless Palmer regains his footing, they are not a Super Bowl contender and they cannot beat a strong defensive team like Seattle.

BRONCOS -7.5 over Texans: Brock Osweiler on the road against his former team, whose defense is one of the best in the league, in a nationally televised game, does not look very enticing. Denver should be able to keep the Texans pinned back, winning the field position battle and making things easy for Trevor Siemian just as they did in the first few weeks of the season.

Last Week: 9-4-2

Season: 51-39-2

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] Important caveat: this is assuming Joe Flacco plays. If not, I still like Baltimore, but it’s a stay-away.

Week 6 Preview: The State of the Running Back

In Week 5 of 2015, in an afternoon game at home against the Chicago Bears, Jamaal Charles tore his ACL for the second time in his career. It was a crushing blow for the Chiefs, who were 1-3 before that game and fell to 1-4 with little hope after the spark of their offense had been blown apart by the injury. They lost the next week at Minnesota, scoring just 10 points and rushing for just 57 yards—a confirmation of what many had feared. Then, something strange happened. The Chiefs beat the Steelers, then they went to London and blew out the Lions by the score of 45-10. They went to Denver and won, then blew out San Diego. This streak morphed into a playoff appearance and a playoff win in which Kansas City blew out Houston on the road. From Week 7 on, they did not lose until the Divisional Round of the postseason—an 11 game winning streak when mustering any sort of an offensive attack seemed impossible.

At the time, I thought that Jamaal Charles was a textbook example of the Ewing Theory. The Chiefs’ offense opened up once he was gone—Alex Smith gained confidence and suddenly things were less one-dimensional. That may be, but I think there is a case to be made that the running back position simply does not matter like we thought it did.

When Charles got hurt last season, fantasy players rushed to pick up Charcandrick West and/or Spencer Ware, who would combine to replace him. In that realm, back-up running backs can often come close to duplicating the production seen by the starter. If this is the case in terms of fantasy production, then why haven’t we at least attempted to try and see if it applies to a team’s performance?

Don’t get me wrong, equating fantasy football with reality is a slippery slope that we shouldn’t go down. And there are certainly teams that lean on the run, such as Dallas, where injuries would affect things more than, say, Kansas City. However, it’s been well-documented that running the ball does not win football games when you look at the league as a whole. Additionally, a quick look at the leaders in DYAR and DVOA among running backs shows that the relation between those stats and record is virtually nonexistent. Sure, there are players like LeSean McCoy and Ezekiel Elliot, whose offenses have undoubtedly been lifted by their own ability in the run game. But there are also players like Isaiah Crowell and Carlos Hyde, whose offenses are utterly terrible, despite their efforts.

There are a lot of factors at play here. Run blocking plays a huge role in the success of a run game and teams like Cleveland and San Francisco don’t have particularly good run blocking. I would say that the biggest factor, however, is the simple idea that you can pass the ball effectively without a run game fairly easily, but doing the reverse is close to impossible. In other words, building a team around the pass allows for a better run game than building a team around the run.

Let’s look at the top-5 running backs in DYAR[1]: Isaiah Crowell, LeSean McCoy, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliot and Carlos Hyde. Furthermore, let’s split those players up by whether their offenses rank above or below average in DVOA. The Bills (McCoy) and the Cowboys (Elliot) are above average while the Browns (Crowell), Cardinals (Johnson) and 49ers (Hyde) are below.

It’s not hard to see what separates these offenses from one another. Dak Prescott ranks second among quarterbacks in DYAR and third in DVOA. He hasn’t thrown an interception and ranks fourth in adjusted net yards per passing attempt. The difference between Elliot and the running back by committee the Cowboys had last season isn’t so much the player itself as the threat of the pass.

Things are more complicated with the Bills—Tyrod Taylor is an above average quarterback by DYAR but his play has declined from last season by most statistical measures. However, it can be explained in how opponents treat the Bills. Coming into last season, Taylor was a complete unknown—a former backup who won the starting job from E.J. Manuel and Matt Cassel. Of course McCoy averaged less than three yards per carry twice in the Bills’ first three games last season—teams were stacking the line of scrimmage. The reverse is true this season. Teams have significantly more respect for Taylor after his Pro Bowl campaign last season. He’s shown ability to stretch the field vertically and opposing teams know that if they stack the line, Taylor will happily toss it deep and reap the rewards. Thus, McCoy’s production has gone up while Taylor’s has declined.

When it comes to the bad offenses, the reason for struggles in Cleveland and San Francisco are overwhelmingly clear to anyone who has watched either team this season. Cleveland is trotting out a carousel of misery at quarterback and may turn to their best receiver—Terrelle Pryor—to take snaps under center at times this week while the 49ers are so desperate at the position that they are starting Colin Kaepernick, who was benched last season after the offense proved utterly incapable of functioning with him throwing the ball. Opposing teams don’t even have to mind the pass against either team, making it even more impressive that Crowell and Hyde have done so well this season.

David Johnson is the most interesting case of the five. Arizona’s offense has traditionally been strong in the Bruce Arians era, particularly when throwing deep, but that has not been the case this season. Carson Palmer has been noticeably poor since his NFC Championship Game meltdown at Carolina, throwing five picks in four games this season, while Drew Stanton turned last week’s Thursday night game into a festival of misery in filling in for Palmer. Yet, Arizona’s run game has still been a strength—the Cardinals rank 13^th in rushing DVOA and Johnson has averaged five yards per carry, good for 10^th in the league. Hypothetically, teams should be stacking the box against the Cardinals to try and mitigate the run. Unlike Cleveland and San Francisco, however, Palmer does have a pedigree. Opposing coaches are not going to change their opinions on a player—or anything else for that matter—until it is painfully obvious[2]. Additionally, the Cardinals’ passing game is still built on deep throws. You can’t stack the box against them for fear that John Brown or Larry Fitzgerald will get free downfield.

You can pass without running, but it’s pretty tough to run without passing. That’s why Kansas City improved last season—their offense became less run-dependent with Charles out—and it’s why the Vikings have been so good despite Adrian Peterson getting hurt.

On to this week’s picks.

Week 6 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Broncos -3.5 over CHARGERS: In Paxton Lynch, the Broncos finally found a quarterback that can lose a game for them. Luckily, Trevor Siemian seems likely to play on Thursday night, which means that Denver will be just fine offensively; especially given that San Diego’s defense is in a constant state of crisis. I still love betting against the Chargers at home—this seems like one of those games where Philip Rivers will have to use the silent count in the red zone—so load up on the Broncos this week.

PATRIOTS -9 over Bengals: Death, taxes and New England against the spread. 

GIANTS -3 over Ravens: Must-win game for both teams, but ultimately I just have not seen anything positive out of the Ravens this season on the offensive side of the ball. Maybe firing Marc Trestman will provide a spark, but it’s tough to see Marty Mornhinweg, whose last coordinator job was for the horrific Geno Smith-led Jets, as a savior of any sort. The Giants have been losing (mainly) because Eli Manning has been on one of his bad streaks. It’s about time for him to snap out of it and if he doesn’t, New York’s season could be effectively over.

SAINTS +3 over Panthers: Drew Brees, at home, against Carolina’s godawful secondary, getting points. Yes, please.

Steelers -7.5 over DOLPHINS: Miami currently ranks 28^th in DVOA—30^th in offense and 21^st in defense. How they are supposed to compete in this game, with the corpse of Ryan Tannehill in the pocket and Byron Maxwell (assuming he doesn’t get re-benched) covering Antonio Brown, I have no idea.

Jaguars +2.5 over BEARS: The Jaguars are in the cellar of the AFC South, but in part because they have played one less game than the rest of the division. Call me crazy, but I’m not crossing them off just yet. The rest of the division is so bad that it might only take seven or eight wins to win it. That’s not out of the realm of possibility for this team given that their schedule is easier than that of Houston and Indianapolis, per Football Outsiders’ metrics.

49ers +8 over BILLS: Let’s slow down the Bills bandwagon a little bit. They have a thin receiving corps without Sammy Watkins and have benefitted greatly from playing four (potentially five, depending on where Arizona winds up) bad offenses. Not to say that San Francisco has a good offense—the 49ers are probably the worst offense in the league outside of Cleveland—but I think they can keep it close by leaning on the run and using Kaepernick’s arm to keep Buffalo’s defense honest.  

LIONS -3 over Rams: Good defense beats good offense, but does bad defense beat bad offense? I’ll go ahead and say yes here in picking the 32^nd-ranked defense in DVOA to beat the 31^st-ranked offense in DVOA. In any case, this will be an ugly game that would be the worst of the week if not for the Browns existing.

TITANS -7 over Browns: Should the Browns just fold so that Cleveland can officially rid itself of any looming feeling that the Other Shoe is about to drop? Isn’t it bad karma for the Indians in the ALCS if the Browns are still lurking in the background going through quarterbacks faster than Donald Trump goes through controversies? At this point, the only lingering question for Cleveland is whether or not Terrelle Pryor is forced to go under center for an entire game at some point. At this point, the losses are more or less assumed, both straight-up and against the spread where Cleveland is a comparatively solid 1-4-0.

REDSKINS +2.5 over Eagles: Rookie quarterbacks are going to turn the ball over at one point or another and that time is coming for Carson Wentz. He threw his first pick last week in the Eagles’ loss to Detroit and more will come. I need to see a little bit more out of Philadelphia before I call the NFC East off or pick them as favorites on the road.

Chiefs +1 over RAIDERS: Don’t worry, I’m still on the Oakland bandwagon, but Kansas City can slow down Derek Carr just enough to win against a horrific Raiders’ defense. This is the type of game where Alex Smith can look like an All-Pro—the Raiders are 29^th in defensive DVOA and 29^th in pass defense DVOA—so as long as the Chiefs’ defense can slow down Oakland’s passing attack this is a very winnable game for them.

Falcons +6.5 over SEAHAWKS: After Atlanta’s convincing win at Denver, I am finally forced to admit that the Falcons are a playoff-caliber team. This is the most interesting game of the week for me—if Atlanta can win on the road against two of the best defenses in the league in consecutive weeks they might even be Super Bowl contenders—and I won’t be caught underestimating the Falcons again. This line is too high—FiveThirtyEight’s Elo spread has Seattle favored by 5.5—and I think they can keep it even closer than that. 

Cowboys +4.5 over PACKERS: The Cowboys offensive line against Green Bay’s run defense, which ranks second in DVOA, is an intriguing matchup but it’s almost impossible to think that the Cowboys could be overmatched in the run game after last week. If they can go to Lambeau Field and win, then there is a legitimate question as to whether or not Dak Prescott should keep the starting job, but it’s undeniable that the rookie has been a positive force for Dallas. If they can run the ball and keep Aaron Rodgers off the field, the Cowboys can at least cover.

Colts +3 over TEXANS: The Texans rank 31^st in DVOA after five weeks. In other words, they should not be favored over anybody, no matter the circumstance.

CARDINALS -8 over Jets: Assuming Carson Palmer plays[3], the Jets are the perfect team for Arizona to revive their deep attack against. New York has constantly been beaten deep this season, the Cardinals will practically be coming off a bye having played their last game on a Thursday, and the Jets’ season is essentially over after their loss to the Steelers. I still think Arizona is a playoff team and this is another must-win game. Expect them to come through.

Last Week: 10-4-0

Season: 42-35-0

 

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] This is the part where I point out that this is entirely subjective and in no way represents an actual study or quantitative proof of anything on this topic.

[2] See Manning, Peyton, circa 2015

[3] If he does not, I reserve the right to change my pick.

Week 5 Preview: Taking stock of the disappointing preseason favorites

Through four weeks, we’ve seen some surprises on both ends of the spectrum. The Falcons look like contenders, the Cardinals look like Carson Palmer has been replaced by Matt Leinart and the Rams are above .500. For those teams on the bottom, the climb back is extremely tough—only 14 percent of teams that started 1-3 have made the playoffs. With that in mind, I decided to look at the four 1-3 teams with the highest expectations coming into the season and evaluate their chances of turning things around. Let’s get right into it.

Arizona Cardinals: The biggest reason to believe that they can turn it around stands on the sideline wearing a beret. Bruce Arians is one of the best coaches in football, but it seems that some defenses have started to see Arizona’s take-no-prisoners offense as predictable. It’s up to Arians to fix that and mix in more short and intermediate throws along with the Cardinals’ standard deep balls. However, this hinges on the quarterback position as much as Arians. Carson Palmer won’t play this week[1], but after he returns from the concussion that is currently keeping him out, Palmer needs to play at the level he did last season. Since his NFC Championship Game meltdown last January, Palmer hasn’t looked the same. Sure, 2015 was a career year, but Palmer was great in 2014 before getting hurt as well. He’s capable of being that player in this offense, with Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd catching the ball and with David Johnson running it. Whether he lives up to that capability may decide the outcome of their season.

New York Jets: It turns out that Jets fans were right to be worried about their schedule this season. After blowing a Week 1 game against the Bengals, New York is suddenly staring down the 1-3 barrel, having failed to gain ground on New England before Tom Brady’s return. It doesn’t get any easier either—the Jets’ next three games are at Pittsburgh, at Arizona and against Baltimore. Right now, the blame is being thrown onto Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the defense hasn’t done itself any favors either. The Jets are 28^th in defensive DVOA and 25^th in defensive DAVE. Outside of Buster Skrine, none of the players in their starting secondary have a PFF grade above 69.6, painting a harrowing picture for a team that was dependent on defense last season. If things don’t turn around this week against the Steelers, you might as well write off the Jets given their offensive limitations.

Indianapolis Colts: In all fairness, the only people expecting the Colts to be real Super Bowl contenders were people working for the Colts. However, this team has underperformed even the most pessimistic predictions with general manager Ryan Grigson’s draft misses playing a huge role. The offensive line ranks 30^th in adjusted sack rate and has been riddled with injuries on the right side. Given their defensive struggles—the Colts are 30^th in defensive DVOA—Indy might need Andrew Luck to be Superman if they are to win on a given week, let alone make the playoffs.

Carolina Panthers: Their slow start has largely been chalked up to schedule, but there are underlying issues with this team that need fixing. Namely, the secondary has been a disaster after Josh Norman’s abrupt offseason departure. Julio Jones ate Bene Benwikere’s lunch last week with a monstrous 300 receiving yards, but James Bradberry and Robert McClain haven’t been much better. Outside of his pick-six last week, Kurt Coleman has failed to replicate a great 2015 while Kawann Short hasn’t been close to the same presence inside. After four weeks, the Panthers are 15^th in defensive DVOA. Compare that to their second-place finish last season and the reason for their struggles becomes clear. Their road to the playoffs is much easier—the NFC South is one of the lesser divisions in football—but if the Falcons are for real, then things suddenly get a lot more tough.  In any case, the Panthers must fix things defensively if they are to be Super Bowl contenders again.

Week 5 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Cardinals -3.5 over 49ERS: I’m surprised this line hasn’t moved further toward San Francisco since the news that Carson Palmer won’t play, but this is a Kitchen Sink game for the Cardinals. There is just no way Arizona loses this if they are contenders in any way—if they do then they’ll be 1-4 and essentially out of the playoff race. I can’t see that happening to a Bruce Arians-led team, even with Drew Stanton at quarterback.

VIKINGS -6.5 over Texans: Brock Osweiler, on the road, against a top-3 defense is a recipe for disaster. The Vikings are legitimate Super Bowl contenders as long as Sam Bradford stays healthy and as long as the offensive line holds up, there shouldn’t be much, if any, trouble for them in this game.

Titans +3.5 over DOLPHINS: The Dolphins shouldn’t be 3.5-point favorites over anyone. I’ve officially given up on Ryan Tannehill, who hasn’t gotten better in the slightest since Adam Gase took over as head coach. The Dolphins don’t have a rushing attack, Tannehill can’t throw the ball and their defense is 28^th in yardage. Their lone win was against the Browns and the only reason they even won that was because Cleveland missed three field goals. This team is utterly terrible and should not be bet on under any circumstance.

Patriots -10.5 over BROWNS: I said last week that I’m not picking against New England for the rest of the year unless the line is utterly ridiculous and this line doesn’t meet that threshold. Frankly, it couldn’t be high enough in Tom Brady’s return.

STEELERS -7 over Jets: I wanted to pick the Jets in this game, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is crumbling to pieces in front of the entire city. He’s throw nine interceptions in two weeks, an incredible number in the worst way possible. New York is also 31^st in pass defense DVOA and faces the most prolific aerial attack in the league this week, on the road, which doesn’t bode well for a team in a must-win scenario so early in the year.  

Redskins +3.5 over RAVENS: I just don’t buy the Ravens yet. All of their wins thus far have been against subpar teams and none of them were convincing. Outside of the coaching and maybe the defensive line, I’m not sure you can point to any part of their team as an automatic advantage either. Until Baltimore starts turning in convincing wins against bad teams or starts beating good teams, I’m not taking them seriously as contenders.

LIONS +3 over Eagles: If you’re betting on this game, I think the under is better than the spread, but Carson Wentz as a road favorite worries me a little bit. The hype train has gotten a bit out of control and Detroit will slow it down a bit by keeping this one close.

Bears +4.5 over COLTS: Only one Colts starter on defense currently has a PFF grade above 58.5. In other words, I don’t think Brian Hoyer will have much trouble moving the ball, which is not a sentence I thought I would type at any point this year.

BRONCOS -5.5 over Falcons: Here’s who the Falcons have played so far with defensive DVOA ranking in parentheses: Tampa Bay (22), Oakland (29), New Orleans (27), Carolina (15). FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratings have Denver as 8.5-point favorites and the Broncos are fifth in defensive DVOA. Based on Sunday, the difference between Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch is minimal at best, so it’s tough to see Denver having much trouble offensively against the 31^st-ranked defense by DVOA.

Bills +2.5 over RAMS: If a Jeff Fisher-led team goes to 4-1, then everything we thought we knew about the NFL is wrong.

RAIDERS -3.5 over Chargers: Derek Carr played one of the best games of his career on Sunday against a feisty Ravens defense. Defensively, the Raiders have played acceptably for the past two weeks as well which, if they can keep it up, makes them downright terrifying. They can move the ball with ease against a San Diego defense that just lost its best player, Jason Verrett, and beat the Chargers twice last season. Oakland should continue their run as 2016’s Most Fun Team with a win this week.

Bengals -1 over COWBOYS: Cincinnati is well-rested and ready to shred a Dallas defense that has utterly failed to create a pass rush through four weeks. The Cowboys don’t have anyone to cover A.J. Green and may struggle to stop the run against a quietly decent Bengals’ offensive line. Dallas’ line has taken some injury hits and if Tyron Smith isn’t healthy on Sunday, they could struggle to slow down Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap.

Giants +7.5 over PACKERS: Are we sure the Packers are good? They’ve played one good half of football so far this season. I think they win this game, but I’m not sure Green Bay should be favored by more than a touchdown until Mike McCarthy’s offense looks competent for more than 30 minutes at once.

Buccaneers +7 over PANTHERS: Monday Night Football’s isn’t getting low ratings because of the election or Colin Kaepernick; it’s getting low ratings because the games are terrible. Look at this schedule and find me more than four games that you would pay to see not involving your team. It’s an impossible task. If ESPN is going to pay $15.2 billion for Monday Night Football, they should at least be able to guarantee some decent games.

Last Week: 10-5-0

Season: 32-31-0

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] If he misses next week’s game against the Jets, you may be able to write off Arizona entirely.

Week 4 Preview: Reevaluating the NFC East

The NFC East may not berth a Super Bowl contender, but it may be the closest division in football. After being a shambolic wasteland in 2015, three of the division’s teams are in the playoff hunt with the fourth on the cusp.

Philadelphia is the team that everyone (myself included) was dead wrong about. I wrote that the Browns were a lock against them in Week 1 with the game in Philly. It’s unclear whether or not Carson Wentz is a star, but he’s proven himself to be a Dilfer Zone quarterback at minimum after ranking fifth in DYAR and fourth in DVOA through three weeks. Defensively, the Eagles have the best unit in the division, ranking second in DVOA. If Wentz can keep playing well as the season goes on and the Eagles’ skill position troubles don’t catch up to them, they will win the division.

However, their skill positions are a potentially major issue. Jordan Matthews has been inconsistent at best while both Nelson Agholor and Dorial Green-Beckham have turned in below-average performances by PFF grading. They ran the ball last week, but if Ryan Mathews isn’t healthy coming out of the bye, it’s tough to see that continuing with Darren Sproles, Wendell Smallwood and Kenjon Barner splitting carries.

The Cowboys have survived well without Tony Romo, but there are clear holes in their roster right now. Left guard La’El Collins was put on IR and All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith may miss his second straight week with injury. With Dez Bryant suffering a hairline fracture in his knee that he may or may not play through, their offense suddenly looks as thin as the defense, which has utterly failed to produce a pass rush and is missing numerous players with suspension and injury. If Dallas can continue to survive these injuries, they can win the division and make noise in the playoffs once everyone is back. However, that’s far from a guarantee, even with Prescott playing well.

If Eli Manning doesn’t fall apart like he did last week and the defense continues to play well, the Giants will win this division. Both of those things are far from guarantees—Manning has been known to implode and the defense is teetering on the edge of average by DVOA. However, if both occur, New York is a borderline Super Bowl contender. With Sterling Shepard emerging as a threat for Offensive Rookie of the Year, their receiving corps is one of the best in football and Ben McAdoo’s system, they can move the ball. As long as their defense holds up, they can contend.

Washington is on the outside looking in, but if things go well for them this week, that will change. Kirk Cousins is a question mark, but the bar isn’t that high given how he performed last season. The Redskins have great pieces across the offense—particularly in the receiving corps and at left tackle with Trent Williams—but their defense will be an issue. They currently rank 25^th in defensive DVOA and DAVE—if things don’t get better on that unit it will prevent the Redskins from getting back into the mix for long.

On to the picks.

Week 4 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

BENGALS -7.5 over Dolphins: Here are the Bengals’ next five opponents: Miami, Dallas (road), New England (road), Cleveland, Washington. Outside of New England, they should win all of those games. If they do, Cincinnati will go into their bye week at 5-3 and their second-half schedule isn’t that tough either. The only thing that slightly worries me this week is the Bengals’ offensive line, which struggled badly last week against Denver. However, as good as Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake are, Miami’s front doesn’t compare to that of the reigning Super Bowl champs.

Jaguars +2.5 over Colts (N): The best thing the NFL could do to drive up interest in Europe is to stop giving them terrible games. They should make a rule that at least one team in every London game has to have made the playoffs the previous year because the most interesting thing about this matchup is seeing which coach gets fired afterward.

REDSKINS -7.5 over Browns: Terrelle Pryor did some interesting Terrelle Pryor things last week, but with Cleveland’s practice squad defense, I think we’re in for a Washington blowout, then a week of “Kirk Cousins is back” stories. Also, betting on the Browns when the spread is less than one score seems dubious at best.

PATRIOTS -4.5 over Bills: This line will move once we find out whether Jimmy Garoppolo or Jacoby Brissett is New England’s starting quarterback this week, but frankly I don’t care. After last week, there’s almost nothing that would make me pick against the Patriots for the rest of this season. Bill Belichick is the best coach of all-time and I think there is a very real chance the Patriots go 19-0. I picked them to win the Super Bowl before the season started and they have blown away my expectations.

JETS +2.5 over Seahawks: At this point, it’s clear that Russell Wilson’s injury is having a large effect on his play and I can’t see him sustaining effectiveness for 60 minutes against the Jets’ defensive front. Center Justin Britt is the only Seattle offensive lineman with a PFF grade over 51.7 right now. Putting that group up against a pass rush including Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams and Muhammad Wilkerson with an injured quarterback under center is close to negligence.

FALCONS +3 over Panthers: I think this game is a stay-away, but gun-to-my-head, I’m taking Atlanta. FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratings have the Panthers at just one point favorites and given that Carolina had the league’s easiest schedule by Football Outsiders’ metrics last season, I think there’s a solid chance they’re a good-bad team[1]. They should have beaten Minnesota last week and instead the Panthers were dominated by their defense and seemed to miss Jonathan Stewart badly. It’s worth remembering that the team started to struggle last season after Stewart got hurt with a near-miss against the Giants and a loss in Atlanta. In the Super Bowl, he had his worst game of the season, rushing for just 29 yards, so he may be more integral to their chances than one would expect.

Lions -3 over BEARS: I have no idea how Chicago’s secondary is going to stop teams with Kyle Fuller going on IR this week. The Lions have a deep receiving corps and Matthew Stafford can spread the ball around with ease against one of the worst teams in football

TEXANS -5 over Titans: I didn’t understand why the Titans were favored last week and I don’t understand why Houston isn’t favored by a touchdown this week. Anyone who thinks the Titans are a remotely decent football team needs to look over to the sideline and understand that they have one of the worst coaches in football. Sure, they’ve been able to run the ball, but, as Mike Mularkey fails to understand, running the ball is not how you win football games. The only justification for this line is that the public has overreacted to Houston’s embarrassing performance on national TV last week, in which case they become an even smarter play.

Raiders +3.5 over RAVENS: Baltimore is intriguing, but I’m not sure how much of their success is schedule-driven. The Ravens have played three bad offenses and two bad quarterbacks thus far and their defense has looked good. I’d like to see them do play well against another decent quarterback in Derek Carr and I’d like to see their offense look anything but catatonic against Oakland’s poor defense before I jump on the bandwagon.

Broncos -3 over BUCCANEERS: I was going to pick the Bucs in this game but then I remembered that Donovan Smith and Demar Dotson are their starting tackles. They will be unable to stop Denver’s pass rush and I’m not sure their defense is the one to make Trevor Siemian quake. FiveThirtyEight’s Elo spread has a five-point gap with this number in Denver’s favor as well, so the Broncos are quite clearly the safe pick.

Cowboys -2.5 over 49ERS: Dak Prescott has convinced me that he can, at minimum, be a Dilfer Zone quarterback. Despite injuries across the offensive line, I expect them to trounce San Francisco this week simply because the 49ers are terrible. There might not be another team more ill-equipped to take advantage of the Cowboys’ defense—which ranks 23^rd in DVOA—than the 49ers, who have almost no talent whatsoever at skill positions beyond Torrey Smith.

Saints +4 over CHARGERS: I’ll bet against the Chargers at home every chance I get before they move to L.A. because San Diego is getting a 3-point advantage in the spread that doesn’t reflect their lack of a home-field advantage. I’m not worried about Drew Brees playing outdoors since the weather will be nice and he played in San Diego for the first five seasons of his career and New Orleans can move the ball against the Chargers’ defense, or lack thereof.

CARDINALS -8.5 over Rams: If the Cardinals lose this game, then something might be wrong, but I can’t see Carson Palmer playing so badly again, nor can I see Bruce Arians rolling out such a predictable gameplan again. I mean, it’s not like he’s Jeff Fisher or anything.

Chiefs +5 over STEELERS: This is my Lock of the Week. FiveThirtyEight’s Elo spread has the Steelers as just 1.5-point favorites and I think Kansas City wins outright. Marcus Peters’ chances against Antonio Brown are better than most and the offense Doug Pederson runs in Philadelphia is obviously similar to what Andy Reid runs in Kansas City. The Steelers are 26^th in defensive DVOA and 23^rd in defensive DAVE thus far while Kansas City is top-5 in both categories. Ryan Fitzpatrick was pretty bad on his own against the Chiefs last week, but the defense should be given some credit for the worst-quarterbacked game I’ve ever seen. KC has the edge on both sides of the ball and this could be a decisive victory for them.

VIKINGS -4.5 over Giants: I’ve gone back and forth on this, but Minnesota’s pass rush terrifies me as a Giants fan. The Vikings decimated Michael Oher last week and it’s not hard at all to see them doing the same to Ereck Flowers this week, even after a string of encouraging games for the second-year player. New York may do the same thing to T.J. Clemmings and Andre Smith on the other end[2], but, well, I’d rather be cautious than overconfident.

 

Last Week: 6-10-0

Season: 22-26-0

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] If you’re unsure what that means, it’s a team that beats up on bad teams, and then loses against good teams.

[2] If you like bad offensive line play, you are going to love this game.

Week 3 Preview: The Overreaction Guide

This time of year is ripe for overreaction. That’s natural—we’ve had six months of buildup and only two games—but it’s also wrong most of the time. Despite being wrong most of the time and knowing that we’re probably wrong most of the time, it’s pretty hard not to overreact after two weeks. With that in mind, here is a short guide to overreacting after two weeks of football.

Stick to your guns until one of the following things happens:

1. The coach is fired: After a team fires its coach, it gets exponentially harder to win. The interim may want to install something different or be even worse than the first coach. Plus, if you’re firing a coach, it means things are pretty terrible to begin with.
2. The team is getting blown out on a frequent basis: Point differential is more indicative of talent than record. Apart from some rare instances (i.e. the 2015 Broncos and Giants), teams are rarely good or bad in close games. If they’re getting destroyed or destroying on a weekly basis though, it may be time to overreact.
3. The quarterback gets hurt.
4. Their deficit in the playoff race becomes too hard to overcome even with a turnaround: I’m currently experiencing this with Jacksonville. I still think the Jaguars can contend, but if they lose and Houston wins this week, it’s unrealistic to expect a playoff berth as they’ll be three games back in the division and the AFC wild card is a tougher competition than the AFC South. After a certain point, math overrides your predictions.

Remember that:

1. Good coaches and/or quarterbacks usually come around: Seattle starts slow every year and every year, people declare them dead. Just because it takes a team a few weeks to shake off the rust doesn’t mean that team is out of contention. As long as the team is staying relevant, they can mount a run at any time.
2. Opponents play a large role in dictating success: If a team comes out of the gate and beats the Browns, Titans and 49ers, you probably shouldn’t take much from it. That team may be good, but beating three of the worst teams in football isn’t an indicator of that as much as an indicator of being good as it is of being not awful. Wait to see how a team does against good opponents before making judgements—even if they get into the playoffs on the back of an easy schedule, you can make money betting against them in the first round.
3. It’s early. Really early. Before the year starts, pick a date in your head. Maybe it’s as late as Thanksgiving, maybe it’s as early as Week 6. Don’t make huge changes until that date unless one of the circumstances above occurs. Personally, I prefer Week 8 because Football Outsiders incorporates their preseason projections into DVOA until Week 8.
4. Most injured players can be replaced without a team losing much. If a running back goes down, everyone in your fantasy football league rushes to add the back-up because he will likely come close to the starter’s production if given the opportunity. Often, the same goes in real life at positions that don’t have fantasy implications. It doesn’t apply for every player and every position—if J.J. Watt or Tyron Smith gets hurt, the production from their positions will change—but non-superstars are surprisingly replaceable. It’s counterintuitive, but unless a team or positional group is decimated by injuries, it’s unlikely they’ll have a huge effect.

On to the picks.

Week 3 Picks

Vegas Insider’s consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

 

Texans -1 over PATRIOTS: It’s tough to bet against the Patriots as home underdogs, but Jacoby Brissett is starting at quarterback[1] and Houston is favored by a mere point. If you’re not betting against New England here, you probably won’t bet against them all season. Houston’s pass rush has been great thus far and J.J. Watt is only getting healthier. They’re going up against a New England line that’s starting Marcus Cannon at right tackle—across from Whitney Mercilus who already has two sacks this season. I can’t imagine the Patriots will dare make Brissett stand in the pocket and face pressure which means a steady diet of screens, runs and play action. Against a lesser defense, that may work, but I can’t see it happening on a short week against a top-10 team in defensive DAVE.

BENGALS -3 over Broncos: The gambling public seems to have caught onto the Broncos being good as this line seems about right. The Bengals can slow down Denver’s pass rush and their defense is the toughest matchup yet for Trevor Siemian. This game seems ripe for the Broncos’ first loss with Siemian at the helm—although if their interior line proves to be as good as it’s been the first two weeks they may be able to slow down Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap enough to cover on the back of C.J. Anderson.

Raiders +1.5 over TITANS: I’m not sure how the Titans are favored over a team that should at least contend for the playoffs, but they are. This coaching matchup is about as lopsided as can be[2] and I can’t fathom Tennessee’s secondary slowing down Derek Carr, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. This could be a high-scoring game given Oakland’s defensive issues thus far, but I don’t think the Titans can keep up given that Mike Mularkey is their coach. He’s not apt to let Marcus Mariota air it out and exotic smashmouth isn’t the right way to beat a team that can score on you.

Cardinals -4 over BILLS: I was somewhat worried about this being a trap game as Bruce Arians’ Cardinals have severely underperformed at times against inferior competition, but their next two games are against the Rams and 49ers. Plus, they had a trap game was in Week 1 when they lost to New England at home. The Bills might challenge New Orleans for the worst defense in football and they fired the wrong coordinator last week. I can’t imagine the Ryan brothers have much time left—firing Greg Roman after scoring 31 points against a good Jets’ defense, not to mention that he turned Tyrod Taylor into an above average quarterback, can’t be too inspiring to the locker room. If the Cardinals blow them out this week, it could be the last straw.

JAGUARS +1 over Ravens: Gus Bradley is fast closing in on Rex Ryan and Chuck Pagano in the first coach fired race. I’m willing to give the Jaguars one more game, at home against a mediocre Ravens’ team, until I hop off the bandwagon.

DOLPHINS -9.5 over Browns: I have no feel for this game, just picking against the Browns based on merit. As I was writing this, I got an alert that Corey Coleman broke his hand which, along with Josh Gordon probably getting cut and/or suspended at some point later this week essentially kills the Browns being a semi-watchable offense. It was a good run while it lasted.

GIANTS -4.5 over Redskins: The Giants might be good and I’m trying to temper my excitement. The Yankees already baited me this month, I don’t want the same thing to happen here but their defense is 15^th in DAVE right now and they have the 15^th-best defense in football, they could contend for the Super Bowl. Sterling Shepard is the early frontrunner for Rookie of the Year, Victor Cruz is healthy and they’re not falling apart at the end of games. I think they move to 3-0 this week as Kirk Cousins has been woeful and the Redskins don’t have a run game to fall back on. Unless Josh Norman performs voodoo magic on Odell Beckham Jr., the Giants should be able to move the ball, win this game and cover.

Lions +7.5 over PACKERS: Anyone who tells you the Packers are struggling because of Aaron Rodgers hasn’t watched the Packers over the past two years. Rodgers isn’t struggling, he’s just gone from impossibly good to a “normal” top-3 quarterback. The problem is the scheme, which completely fails to help receivers get open and the receivers themselves, who are completely incapable of getting open. Rodgers dragged them to 10 wins last season and he’ll probably do the same this season. As for this game, I think this spread is at least ½ point too high against a Lions team that would have beaten the Packers twice last season if not for Rodgers’ heroics.

Vikings +7 over PANTHERS: I don’t think losing Adrian Peterson is that big a blow to Minnesota’s chances. He was averaging 1.6 yards per carry through two games behind abominable run blocking—the Vikings were going to turn into a passing team regardless. Sam Bradford won’t play like he did on Sunday night most weeks, but he has a higher floor than Teddy Bridgewater did last season and their defense looks really, really good. Carolina may win this game straight-up, but the Vikings should keep it close enough to cover.

SEAHAWKS -9.5 over 49ers: I refuse to worry about the Seahawks until at least Week 8. I made that mistake last year and I won’t make it again. They’re a slow-starting team and lost last week to Los Angeles—a team that, for some reason, always does well against them. San Francisco does not usually play them close and I can’t imagine them starting to do so this week.

BUCCANEERS -5.5 over Rams: The Rams have scored nine points in two weeks and don’t seem to have entertained starting Jared Goff. Either Jeff Fisher drafted someone incapable of beating out Case Keenum or he’s completely failing to see that the #1 pick in the draft is better than Case Keenum. Did I mention that Andrew Luck threw for more yards in Week 1 than Keenum has in the first two weeks combined?

Steelers -3.5 over EAGLES: Be patient when it comes to rookie quarterbacks. Flaws will reveal themselves at some point and this is that game for Carson Wentz. Pittsburgh is the first non-bottom-5 defense he’ll face in the NFL, so please excuse me for not anointing him as the next (insert Hall of Fame quarterback), but I’ll hold off on him and the Eagles until they beat good, or even average teams.

CHIEFS -3 over Jets: The Chiefs-Texans game last week was weird. There were two catches that got called non-catches, both on big plays, three Kansas City fumbles, all of which were lost, along with nine penalties on the Chiefs. Ryan Fitzpatrick will have trouble moving the ball against a top-10 defense in DAVE unless he duplicates his great performance last Thursday against the Bills. New York’s defense is nothing to sneeze at, but Alex Smith should be able to move the ball against a middling secondary. I’m also slowly falling in love with Spencer Ware as he’s averaged 6.0 yards per carry thus far along with nine receptions for 177 yards. At home, the Chiefs should take this one.

Chargers +3 over COLTS: San Diego’s offense has impressed thus far and the Colts are playing Rashaan Melvin, Antoni Cromartie and Darryl Morris at cornerback. The only way they can win this game is by keeping pace in a high-scoring game, but even then there’s no guarantee they can cover.

Bears +7 over COWBOYS: The Cowboys should win this game and they should win it by a lot, but I’m picking the Bears solely because I think the difference between Brian Hoyer and Jay Cutler is pretty low and the line moved from four to seven after the news that Hoyer would be starting.

Falcons +3 over SAINTS: This might have the lowest TV ratings of any NFL game this century. Monday Night Football’s ratings are already tanking and now they have to go up against the first Presidential Debate, which could draw higher ratings than the Super Bowl. I won’t be watching this game live and I sat through Rams-49ers in Week 1 and Jaguars-Titans on Thursday Night Football two years in a row. Just a terrible break for ESPN.

 

Last Week: 8-8-0

Season: 16-16-0

 

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] If Garoppolo starts (currently listed as doubtful), my pick changes

[2] Jack Del Rio is the early frontrunner for Most Improved Coach and he wasn’t half-bad last year either