This week, the Los Angeles Rams finally, mercifully, fired Jeff Fisher. To say it had been a long time coming would be an understatement—Fisher did not have a single winning season with the team and had not enjoyed a winning season with any team since before Barack Obama was President. He was a laughingstock and so were the Rams. They did the right thing in letting Fisher go, even if it was multiple years too late. The question now is how can they make up for all the mistakes he made?
The Rams certainly have talent—Aaron Donald is in the DPOY conversation on a yearly basis, Todd Gurley is one of the most talented running backs in the league and the team spent a #1 pick on Jared Goff last spring. The entire defense has ability—the Rams are 16th in defensive DVOA and will get better if the front office hires the right coaches. The problem is on the other side of the ball. Goff didn’t play until far too late this season and even after a few games, it’s clear that there’s still a lot of developing to go before he looks like a top-notch quarterback. And thanks to Fisher’s (and the front office’s) epic whiffs in the draft, there’s almost nothing besides Gurley to build the offense around.
Left tackle Greg Robinson is one of the worst draft busts in recent memory. If there’s one decent receiver in the long term between Kenny Britt, Tavon Austin and Brian Quick, the Rams should consider it a success and the same goes for any player on an offensive line that ranks 25th in adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate. To put yet another problem atop this mess, the Rams traded away their first and third round picks next season for Jared Goff—along with a bevy of picks in the 2016 Draft that produced Derrick Henry and Corey Coleman, among others.
Per Over the Cap, the Rams will have about $41 million to spend in free agency this offseason, but that doesn’t factor in players like Trumaine Johnson, Dominique Easley and T.J. McDonald who are due for raises. Building through free agency is also a dicey proposition—just ask Dave Caldwell—and handing out big money to upcoming free agents like Ronald Leary, T.J. Lang and Joe Bergercould backfire, costing the front office their jobs if Stan Kroenke gets impatient.
In the end, the best answer is probably to build up slowly. The Rams need to hire a good coach, develop Goff into a star, find better players in the draft and eventually build a contender around their defense. That doesn’t happen overnight and it won’t be good for their status in the L.A. market—especially if the Chargers follow through and move there this offseason—but the fact of the matter is that even without Jeff Fisher, the Rams may still be 7-9 in 2017.
On to this week’s picks.
Week 15 Picks
Vegas Insider’s consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.
Rams +16 over SEAHAWKS: Forget the Rams’ success against Seattle, I just don’t think any team should be favored by 16 on a Thursday night. The short rest has too much of an effect. Seattle probably breaks their losing streak against L.A., but the offensive line’s struggles will be magnified with the short week and they could have trouble moving the ball as a result.
JETS +2.5 over Dolphins: Bryce Petty vs. Matt Moore rivals Alex Tanney vs. Ryan Lindley/Josh Johnson for the worst quarterback matchup in recent NFL history. I have nothing else to say about this game other than recommending that you avoid watching it.
Lions +4.5 over GIANTS: The Giants aren’t well-equipped to take advantage of Detroit’s deficiencies. They just turned in a horrendous offensive performance against Dallas, ranked 21st in defensive DVOA, and have struggled to sustain drives all year. Detroit, 31st in defensive DVOA, can do just as well as Dallas if Eli Manning keeps playing this badly. New York can still win the game with their defense, but the Lions should keep this one close enough to cover.
RAVENS -6 over Eagles: Even after Tom Brady’s surgical dismantling of their defense on Monday, the Ravens rank second in defensive DVOA. Carson Wentz, on the road, with a notable lack of talent at skill positions, is going to have a tough time moving the ball. Maybe Philly’s defense slows down the Ravens enough to keep it close, but I like how Baltimore’s been playing lately. Every game is a must-win for them now—I don’t think they falter against a team that’s essentially out of the playoff picture.
Packers -6.5 over BEARS: When the Packers struggled, people rushed to blame Aaron Rodgers. Now that the Packers are playing well, they rush to laud Mike McCarthy for getting them through tough times. I’d say that this is how you end up with Jeff Fisher, but it’s too late for the Packers, who will find themselves wondering why they keep going 7-9 in the years after Rodgers retires.
VIKINGS -4 over Colts: I’m so disappointed that Chuck Pagano wasn’t the first coach fired after I picked him at 12/1 before the season. The Colts had the perfect window to do it—right after they lost to Jacksonville in London—but they held out and stayed just competitive enough to justify keeping Pagano. Now, their chances to make the playoffs are virtually dead and they’ll probably fire Pagano (and Ryan Grigson) after the season for their colossal failure to build a contender around Andrew Luck. Oh, well.
BILLS -10 over Browns: If the Browns fire everyone after the season, then they deserve to be 0-16. They didn’t just know that this would be a rough year, even by their standards, they probably tanked to some extent. Oh, and every quarterback on their team got hurt. Football needs some sort of innovation. Maybe Sashi Brown and Paul DePodesta’s plan works, maybe it doesn’t, but firing them now brings Cleveland back to square one for the nth year in a row.
Titans +5.5 over CHIEFS: The Chiefs should win this outright, but the Titans will run the ball, control possession and get Marcus Mariota to the red zone where he excels. Unless Kansas City really has abandoned their conservative approach, this will be a slow-developing game on their side as well. Maybe they can pull away with big plays on special teams—they seem to do it every week—but I expect the Titans to hang in and keep it close.
TEXANS -6 over Jaguars: Jacksonville has more incentive to tank than any team right now. Outside of Gus Bradley and Blake Bortles trying to save their own skins—something they have failed at spectacularly—there’s no reason for the franchise to win their remaining games this year. They quietly slid Julius Thomas and Jared Odrick to IR last week—don’t be surprised if Chris Ivory or Allen Hurns join them soon.
BENGALS +3 over Steelers: If A.J. Green is out, I’ll probably change this, but assuming he’s back, the Bengals are capable of beating Pittsburgh outright. There have been just four games this year where Green and Tyler Eifert have both been healthy—Pittsburgh is going to struggle to cover both. It’s also a revenge game of sorts for Vontaze Burfict, who was suspended for the initial meeting between these teams. Even with the Bengals out of it, I’m putting the Steelers on upset watch this week.
Saints +2.5 over CARDINALS: The Cardinals have an interesting dilemma with Carson Palmer in the offseason. I’m not sure what team would take him in a trade—his salary isn’t very high so maybe the Jets or 49ers go for it—but it’s clear that Arizona can’t win with him at the quarterback position. With talent all over the roster, it’s tough to just cut bait and sacrifice at least a year without any reward. Maybe they can trade up in the draft with one of the aforementioned teams, but that would involve shelling out future draft stock for an unproven rookie. It’s an unpleasant crossroads for a team that wanted to contend for a Super Bowl this season, but how they handle it will be telling.
FALCONS -14 over 49ers: I learned a few things last week. Among them were: don’t pick the Browns or 49ers, ever.
BRONCOS +3 over Patriots: Historically, playing in Denver has given New England fits during the Tom Brady Era. In nine games at Mile High since 2001, including the playoffs, the Patriots have won just twice. I also don’t entirely buy that New England’s offensive line is leaps and bounds better than last season. There’s certainly been improvement, but pass blocking will still be an issue against the squad that decimated them in the AFC Championship Game last season. If they’re going to lose a game for the rest of the season, this will be the one.
Raiders -3 over CHARGERS: This line is still factoring the Chargers as the home team, but there will probably be just as many (or more) Raider fans in attendance. With Philip Rivers struggling, San Diego having lost three of their last four and Oakland coming off 10 days’ rest, I’m not sure why this line isn’t closer to six or seven points.
COWBOYS -7 over Buccaneers: This is the game where Dak Prescott has to put the Romo debate to bed. Dallas is on national TV again, against an inferior opponent. If they can win convincingly behind their quarterback of the future, nobody will utter another word about this asinine debate again. Please Dak, save us from the takes.
REDSKINS -5 over Panthers: Carolina has yet to beat a team with a winning record and they won’t start this week . Washington’s receiving corps is too deep, their offensive line too good and Josh Norman too motivated for anything less than a convincing victory on Monday.
Last Week: 9-6-1
Season: 113-89-6
All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted
Comments
You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.