The Most Valuable Player award is meant to represent the best player in a given sport. Sure, we can get into semantics and argue about the use of the word “valuable,” but the award is supposed to be given to the best player. With that simple definition in mind, the best player in football this year—and thus the MVP—is Tom Brady.
Yes, he missed four games thanks to an unjust suspension, but that doesn’t change what he did on the field. Right now, Brady leads the league in passer rating, QBR and adjusted net yards per attempt. On a per game basis, he’s fourth in passing yards. He’s also third in touchdown percentage and is on pace to set a single-season record for interception percentage, having been picked off on just 0.3 percent of his throws. Despite throwing downfield with regularity—he has a 2.4 ALEX—Brady is third in completion percentage and despite missing those four games, he’s sixth in DYAR, ahead of Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger by notable margins. Brady also has a 95.4 PFF grade—that’s not just the best among quarterbacks, it’s tied with Aaron Donald for the best in football.
Put all of this together and it’s hard to find a reason not to give the award to Brady. Missing four games means that the bar is set higher for him, but if he hasn’t hit that bar then what else could he possibly do? The only reason more people haven’t advocated for Brady is that there’s been a lack of signature moments on his part—in other words, the Patriots are too good. Outside of the game they lost to Seattle and their victory against the Jets two weeks ago, New England hasn’t had any close games this season since Brady returned. They haven’t beaten expectations either because the expectation is a Super Bowl. That makes Brady a boring pick—the suspension only gives voters an excuse to go with Derek Carr, Matt Ryan, Ezekiel Elliott or Dak Prescott, all of whom have been worse than Brady this year.
It’s easy to overlook because, let’s face it, we expect it at this point. Anything less than an AFC title game appearance would inspire Skip Bayless to proclaim that Jimmy Garoppolo should start next season. But that expectation has clouded our judgement. If we look at things objectively, Tom Brady has been the best player in football this year and it isn’t very close.
Week 14 Picks
Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.
CHIEFS -3 over Raiders: Kansas City matches up well in this game. They can move the ball against a bad defense and slow down Oakland just enough to eke out a win. Justin Houston will go up against Austin Howard, by far the worst player on Oakland’s offensive line—so the Chiefs may be able to manufacture some pressure against a normally sound Raider line. It only takes a small explosion from Oakland to win—they went from down 24-9 to up 38-24 in a matter of minutes on Sunday—but Kansas City has already slowed them down this year and that was on the road, without the short week. If the Chiefs can win this game, they’ll take up the mantle in the AFC as the team to beat (outside of New England that is), so take them at 6/1 to win the AFC or 12/1 to win the Super Bowl while you can.
TITANS -1 over Broncos: Like last week, I’ll reexamine this once we know Trevor Siemian’s status. As of now, I assume he’s out, so I like Tennessee. The Broncos, despite ranking first in defensive DVOA, are 26th in run defense DVOA, which plays right into the Titans’ wheelhouse. Couple that with Marcus Mariota’s off the charts red zone efficiency and Tennessee should be able to win this game if Denver is forced to start the ever-hapless Paxton Lynch at quarterback.
Chargers +1 over PANTHERS: This game has no impact on the playoff picture, so let’s talk about the absurdity of the Chargers potentially playing games at the L.A. Coliseum next season instead. I understand there aren’t many good options in Los Angeles, but having three teams play at a stadium that’s already run down is a disaster waiting to happen. Every home Rams game already features the USC logo badly hidden underneath the NFL logo at midfield, we don’t need to add a third team to this mix. Go to the StubHub Center and deal with the smallest crowd in the league (by far) for two years. Try to work out a deal with the Rose Bowl. Stay in San Diego until the Rams’ complex in Los Angeles is complete. I don’t really care; just don’t subject us to a year of stories about the field at the Coliseum being unplayable.
Texans +6 over COLTS: This line is an overreaction to Indy beating up on the Jets in a nationally televised game. The Colts shouldn’t be six-point favorites over any remotely competitive team—they rank 30th in defensive DVOA and provide almost exclusively on Andrew Luck to move the ball. Maybe they win this one outright—Brock Osweiler is certainly incompetent enough to make it happen—but they should at least keep this game close.
BROWNS +5.5 over Bengals: The Browns are +210 to win straight-up this week, per Sportsbook, and +130 to finish 0-16. One of those two things will happen. This is by far their best chance to win—Robert Griffin III is coming back and the Bengals are both in the midst of a death march and badly depleted without A.J. Green. If they lose, their remaining games are against Buffalo, San Diego and Pittsburgh. Unless the Steelers win their next three and decide to rest their players in Week 17 instead of going for a slim chance at the #2 seed, none of those are winnable for the Browns. With better-than-even odds on both, this is easy money.
BILLS +2 over Steelers: I don’t understand why the Steelers are favored in this game. Not only are they on the road, but the Bills are a better team. They have the best run game in the league by DVOA—Pittsburgh is a respectable 12th in adjusted line yards on defense, but they’re not going into the cold and stopping LeSean McCoy. If the Bills can turn this into a contest of running backs, they’re going to win. As good as Le’Veon Bell is, the Bills have a better defensive front than Pittsburgh, the weather on their side and a much better running game by DVOA. Buffalo can, and will, win this game outright.
DOLPHINS -1 over Cardinals: The Cardinals have played well lately and Miami just got embarrassed in a huge game, but until the Arizona at 1 PM on the East Coast Corollary fails, I’m blindly going by it.
Bears +8 over LIONS: The Lions are coming off games against Minnesota and New Orleans; after this week, they visit the Giants and Cowboys. This has trap game written all over it. The Bears can run the ball against a shambolic Detroit defense and on the other side of the ball, Chicago quietly ranks 16th in DVOA. That’s good enough to cover—and maybe even eke out a win—against a Detroit side looking for a week off.
Vikings -3.5 over JAGUARS: If the Jaguars lose out, they probably end up with the #2 pick. With Lamar Jackson and DeShaun Watson both available in the Draft, I’m not sure how you can justify not tanking—a perfect explanation for why the Jags are waiting until the season ends to fire Gus Bradley.
Redskins -1 over EAGLES: A few weeks ago, I wrote that if the Wentz Wagon were in the Oregon Trail game, everyone on it would have dysentery. Now, there’s only one ox left—the rest have been killed for food—and about half the people on the wagon are dead. Also, they still need to cross the Mississippi River.
49ERS -2.5 over Jets: I don’t think Todd Bowles is a bad coach, but he’s trying as hard as he can to prove me wrong. The Jets have flat-out quit on the season and they announced it on national television. With Bryce Petty starting for the remainder of the year, it’s tough to see them competing in any games—even against whichever quarterback Chip Kelly trots out this week in San Francisco[1].
BUCCANEERS -2.5 over Saints: I bet against Tampa worming their way into the playoff conversation and they proved me wrong. They should move the ball at will against New Orleans—which ranks 25th in defensive DVOA and features no player remotely capable of covering Mike Evans. This game should be an interesting test for their defense, but given how well they’ve played against Kansas City, Seattle and San Diego in the past three weeks, I like their chances.
Seahawks -3 over PACKERS: Quality of opponent matters. In the past two weeks, the Packers have played the Eagles and Texans—two teams that will get trounced in the first round if things go perfectly for the rest of the season—and looked great. Against Seattle—a Super Bowl contender—things might not go as well. Even without Earl Thomas, the Seahawks are still capable of consistently pressuring Aaron Rodgers and making things tough for a receiving corps that regularly struggles to get open. With Thomas Rawls back and Green Bay’s defense ranking 20th in weighted DVOA, Seattle can move the ball on offense as well. Unless Rodgers puts in an incredible performance, the Packers are in danger of being blown out.
Falcons -6 over RAMS: Jeff Fisher may be having the worst two-week stretch in the history of coaching. He forgot the name of New England’s running backs; had the entire world laugh at his extension; got blown out against the Patriots, forgetting where his challenge flag was in the middle of it; forgot his general manager also received an extension, then tried to look at the bright side by talking about how good the Rams are at punting and saying that they don’t have to leave Pacific Standard Time again this year (never mind that Los Angeles is 2-4 in their own time zone). If the Rams lose this week, Fisher ties Dan Reeves for the most coaching losses of all-time, with nearly 17 less wins, 19 less overall games and three less playoff appearances. Fisher’s last winning season was during the Bush administration—it’s becoming increasingly safe to say that he’s among the worst coaches of all-time.
Cowboys -3 over GIANTS: With a depleted defensive line, the Giants are going to have trouble in run defense—normally their calling card—and it’s going to be tough for them to contain one of the league’s best passing attacks. Unless Eli Manning shakes off his struggles in a big way, I don’t see how New York can keep up with the Cowboys’ offense.
Ravens +7 over PATRIOTS: This reminds me a lot of the playoff game between these teams two years ago. The Patriots won that game despite having no run game or pass rush thanks to one of the best games of Tom Brady’s career and an insane coaching performance from Bill Belichick—featuring Julian Edelman throwing a touchdown pass and eligible/ineligible receiver shenanigans that drove John Harbaugh to insanity. Belichick won’t break out those goods for a regular season game when the Patriots have a tight grip on the division and the Patriots don’t have Rob Gronkowski to bail them out if needed. I think they still manage to win it, but this should be a close game—perhaps the highlight of Monday Night Football this year.
Last Week: 8-7-0
Season: 104-83-5
All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted
[1] I don’t think I’ve ever been proven wrong more quickly than last week with Colin Kaepernick. He truly did play well for two games and I talked myself into Kaepernick potentially being redeemable. Then, he threw for four yards. The internet always laughs at people for saying “I could do (blank),” but most able-bodied people could throw for four yards in an NFL game—even in cold weather. As long as you complete one or two screen passes, you’re set, but Kaepernick couldn’t even do that. It’s sort of incredible.
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