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Week 17 Preview: 10 Things I liked and didn't like this season

With the season winding down, I thought it appropriate to look at some topics I haven’t had a chance to discuss, so without further ado, here are 10.

1. Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth, not giving a damn about how they look

Michaels and Collinsworth have ditched the normal suit-and-tie announcer garb for quarter-zips during the second half of this year and power to them. It’s refreshing to see something different twice a week and if any crew can spit on the (presumably) unspoken dress code, it’s these guys. They’re the best announcing duo in the league, they get the best matchups every week and Sunday Night Football has the highest production value of any game in a given week. Here’s to that setup continuing for as long as possible.

2. Bilal Powell, the Jets’ only source of offense

As the Jets have rapidly crumbled over the past three weeks, Powell has been the lone bright spot. In those three games, he has 289 rushing yards—4.82 per carry—and 126 receiving yards—7.00 per reception. The Louisville product has half the rushing attempts as Matt Forte and only 213 less rushing yards. He’s performed well enough over the past two years to earn the Jets’ starting spot in the backfield next year

 

3. The Saints’ receiving corps, a force to be reckoned with

Michael Thomas, Willie Snead and Brandin Cooks have PFF grades of 84.3, 81.5 and 80.1 (fourth option Brandon Coleman lags behind at 68.9. None have lived up to individual fantasy hype (particularly Cooks), but together they’ve formed one of the most impressive threesomes in the league. Thomas needs just 19 more yards to hit 1,000 for the season—if he does, the Saints will be just the second team this year to field such a duo (the first is Denver with Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas). Did I mention that Thomas and Cooks also rank second and 10^th in DYAR, with Snead close behind at 24^th? If Drew Brees can keep playing at a high level for a couple years, this group could be the catalyst for a Saints’ resurgence.  

4. Will Fuller, disappearing

Remember when Will Fuller was destroying teams in September? The first-year player out of Notre Dame was an early Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate, a constant deep threat and great after the catch, but he fell off the map entirely after Week 5. I had to double-check to make sure he didn’t miss more than a few games with injury during that time[1] because he’s become so irrelevant. Fuller has just 288 receiving yards from Week 5 on after picking up 323 over the first four weeks. There’s still talent there—hopefully Houston can salvage it in spite of a quarterback who made the football world say, “You know what, Tom Savage isn’t that bad.”

 

5. Adam Thielen, doing what Cordarrelle Patterson was supposed to do

The Patterson hype was off the charts two years ago. He was supposed to be a downfield threat with dynamism after the catch, but instead he became Tavon Austin 2.0—a receiver who can’t run a route or catch a pass, resulting in a bucketload of screens being thrown his way so the team can take advantage of his elusiveness in the open field. Well, Minnesota fans can rejoice because Adam Thielen is here to fulfill that role. Despite having just 31 receptions in his first two years combined, Thielen is just 40 yards away from 1,000 after a 12-reception, 202-yard performance at Lambeau Field last week. Thielen isn’t quite as jittery as Patterson in the open field, but 4.17 YAC per reception, per NFL GSIS, isn’t too shabby. More importantly, Thielen fulfills the “get open” and “catch the ball” requirements of being a wide receiver in the NFL. If Minnesota can figure out its offensive line, it becomes one of the best offenses in the league thanks in part to Thielen.

6. Dave Toub, future head coach

Toub, the special teams coordinator for the Chiefs, has finally started to receive widespread recognition this season. Despite having been a special teams coordinator for the Bears, and later the Chiefs, since 2004, Toub does not have a Pro Football Reference page. This will change soon—outside of a 2-year lull between 2004 and 2005, Toub’s special teams units have never ranked below ninth in DVOA. Given that special teams are generally considered to be random, that’s incredible and Toub should finally reap the rewards this offseason.

 

7. Doug Free, killing the Cowboys’ vibe

Free hasn’t been all that bad—his 74.6 PFF grade is respectable at worst—but put him next to Tyron Smith, Ron Leary, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin and he becomes noticeable in a bad way. Each time the Cowboys give up a sack, Free seems to be at fault[2] and it kills the unimpeachable aura around Dallas’ line. They’re still the best in the league, but every once in a while, Doug Free reminds you that they aren’t immortal, which makes things a little less fun.

8. Jalen Ramsey, backing up the trash talk

A lot has been made of Ramsey’s frequent (and unabashed) trash talking—he’s insulted everyone from Steve Smith to Aaron Rodgers, a habit the rookie should probably consider breaking. However, Ramsey does have an 83.1 PFF grade—an impressive mark for his first year. Though his comments and the obscurity of Jacksonville have taken him out of the Defensive Rookie of the Year conversation, he should be there. Ramsey has been everything draftniks thought he’d be and could easily grow into a perennial All-Pro.

9. Vontae Davis, spiraling downward

Here are Vontae Davis’ PFF grades from 2013 to now: 85.5, 94.6, 82.2, 42.9. That is a steep fall for someone who was arguably the best corner in the league two seasons ago and one that’s come before Davis’ time as well—he’s just 28 years old. Davis should be in his prime right now, but instead he looks lost on a weekly basis—the guy has become helpless against the players he used to shut down routinely. Who knows whether it’s because the Colts have changed coordinators from Greg Manusky to Ted Monachino or because Davis has just lost something, but the difference is massive.

10. Mike McCarthy, getting away unscathed

Mike McCarthy is the Jeff Fisher of his generation. Early on this year, it looked like his job may be in danger—rightfully so—but, once again, Aaron Rodgers bailed him out with one of the most impressive five-game runs in recent memory. The Packers will probably win on Sunday and end up in the playoffs again—resulting in yet another year of praise for a coach who has consistently failed to live up to the talent on his team. The moral of the story: one Super Bowl win gets you a long way in the NFL.

On to the picks.

Week 17 Picks

Vegas Insider’s consensus lines used. Home teams listed in CAPS. Because it’s Week 17, I won’t be writing about the games that hold no playoff implications.

Texans +3 over TITANS: The Texans are 11^th in defensive DVOA and the Titans are starting Matt Cassel at quarterback. I rest my case.

JETS +3.5 over Bills

Ravens +2.5 over BENGALS

COLTS -4.5 over Jaguars

Cowboys +4 over EAGLES: Even if Dallas rests everyone (and based on Monday, I don’t think they will), Tony Romo’s presence alone makes this line inflated.

Bears +5 over VIKINGS

Panthers +6 over BUCCANEERS

Browns +6 over STEELERS: The Steelers are locked into the #3 seed and have already announced that they’re resting everyone. And since the Browns are destined to mess everything up, it’s only appropriate that they lose the #1 pick by winning their last two games.

Patriots -9.5 over DOLPHINS: New England learned the value of home-field advantage the hard way last season. I don’t think they let this game slip through their hands—especially with Matt Moore still under center for Miami. Expect the Patriots to go into the playoffs with momentum—their biggest obstacle in the AFC is complacency and I expect Bill Belichick wants to put any of that feeling to rest.

FALCONS -6.5 over Saints: This game quietly means a lot—a win guarantees a first-round bye for the Falcons—and this is Matt Ryan’s last chance to cement his MVP case. At home, against a bad defense, the Falcons should move the ball easily and walk away with a win.

Cardinals -6 over RAMS

Chiefs -5.5 over CHARGERS: The Chargers are just falling apart. Philip Rivers is having the worst year of his career, they can’t catch a break in crunch time and their home games have turned into depressing reminders that the team will probably move to Los Angeles in the offseason. I can’t imagine that they’re motivated in any way after losing to the Browns next week—the only thing left is to play out the string and to hop on Zillow to look for homes in the L.A. area. Kansas City is playing for a bye, which means a probable AFC title game berth in a playoff field stacked with back-up quarterbacks. This is the only team that can beat New England before the Super Bowl—winning this week gets them a lot closer to doing so.

Seahawks -9.5 over 49ERS: The Seahawks still haven’t figured out the offensive line or their post-Earl Thomas secondary, but the 49ers aren’t well equipped to take on either of those flaws. Their defensive line is a middling 16^th in adjusted sack rate and a horrific 30^th in adjusted line yards. On the other side of the ball, they just aren’t capable of attacking the defense via deep balls without succumbing to turnovers.

BRONCOS -1.5 over Raiders: Count me as pessimistic about Matt McGloin. He hasn’t started a game since 2013 and his only extended appearance in the last two seasons came in Week 1 of 2015, when he threw for just 142 yards in 31 attempts as the catalyst in a 33-13 Oakland loss. Even with the Broncos playing for pride, I can’t see McGloin doing anything against their defense.

Giants +7.5 over REDSKINS: Washington should win this game, but this is too many points. Ben McAdoo has indicated that the Giants are playing all of their starters and defensively, they present a formidable challenge for Kirk Cousins. I doubt New York has its foot all the way down on the pedal, but they’ll keep it close enough to cover.

Packers -3.5 over LIONS: Betting against Aaron Rodgers in scorched-earth mode is like hitting on 20 at a blackjack table. You might as well be tossing money into a fire. The Lions are dead last in defensive DVOA and Darius Slay—their best corner—will either miss the game or play hurt. If you think that’s enough to slow down Rodgers, Nelson and co right now, there's a Nigerian prince who wants to meet you.

 

Last Week: 5-11-0

Season: 122-111-7

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] The only game Fuller missed was Week 10.

[2] With the notable exception of a Ziggy Ansah sack on Monday where Smith was the culprit.

Week 16 Preview: Throwing cold water on the Giants' optimism

The New York Giants have lost just one of their past nine games. They’re almost guaranteed to finish in the top wild card spot in the NFC and travel to Atlanta, Detroit or Green Bay in the first round—all winnable games. If they do win in the wild card round, they likely play Dallas in the divisional round—a team they’ve beaten twice this year. Therefore, it isn’t too far-fetched to say that the Giants may be in the NFC title game, which means it isn’t too far-fetched to say they reach, or even win, the Super Bowl.

Indeed, that line of thinking has been taken by many this week—often paired with the idea of a Super Bowl XLII/XLIV rematch against the Patriots, a dream for FOX executives. Despite the relative feasibility of it, I—a Giants fan—don’t see it happening. I don’t see them beating Dallas in the second round either—even beating Atlanta or Green Bay in the first round seems like a stretch[1]. The reason is simple: the New York Giants are not that good a football team.

Let’s look at DVOA. The Giants are 11^th in both the regular and weighted versions of the category, 21^st in offense, third in defense and 17^th in special teams. That may seem low, but take a deeper dive into the numbers and it looks high. New York has just 8.4 estimated wins according to Football Outsiders—a number they’ve outperformed by nearly two full games—because they’ve been extremely lucky in close games. Back in Week 1, Terrance Williams failed to run out of bounds, ending the game and handing New York a 1-point victory. In Week 2, it took a game-ending field goal after a rare drive down the field to eke out a 3-point victory against New Orleans and in Week 6; it took a 66-yard catch-and-run from Odell Beckham and a defensive stand to win against the Ravens. I could go on, but it would get tedious (if it isn’t already). The point is that the Giants have won just two games this season by more than one score: last week against Detroit and Week 12 against the (winless) Browns.

If those 8.4 estimated wins suddenly seem high now, it’s worth noting that Pro Football Reference’s Expected Win-Loss metric pegs the Giants at 7.7-6.3, which, rounded up, would tie them with playoff hopefuls like Green Bay and Baltimore.

Furthermore, their offensive weakness is glaring. It’s easy to look at Eli Manning’s struggles and shrug them off given how well the defense is playing, but to contend for a Super Bowl with a bad offense, you need a historically good defense. For context, the Broncos were 25^th in offensive DVOA last season but led the league with a -25.8 percent defensive DVOA. This year, the Giants are 21^st in offensive DVOA, but rank third with a -14.3 percent defensive DVOA—that’s over 10 percent lower than last year’s Broncos, a team that still needed an extraordinary amount of luck to even advance to the Super Bowl.

Having a good offense matters—a lot—and the Giants don’t, in any way, shape or form. Despite indisputable talent around him, Eli Manning has been consistently terrible, ranking 19^th in DYAR, 20^th in DVOA and 26^th in QBR with a 50.6 PFF grade to boot. More often than not, the team has relied on the occasional big play from Odell Beckham, like the 8-yard slant he took to the house against the Cowboys, for points—a strategy that is sure to fail eventually. They haven’t been able to run the ball either—as a team, the Giants average a horrific 3.4 yards per carry, good for 30^th in the league. It’s possible to win with defense, but the offense has to contribute somehow and this offense hasn’t. Over their last four wins—against the Bears, Browns, Cowboys and Lions, who rank 18^th, 32^nd, 20^th and 31^st in defensive DVOA—the Giants have scored 19 points on average. Last year, the Broncos averaged 22.1875 per game with a significantly better defense to compensate.

Take all of this into account—along with factors like Ben McAdoo’s suspect game management—and it’s hard to be optimistic about the Giants. Even after a great regular season, the fact of the matter is that they will probably crash out in the first round.

Week 16 Picks

Vegas Insider’s consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Giants -2.5 over EAGLES: I don’t like the idea of Carson Wentz on a short week against one of the best defenses in football. Philly’s offensive line is capable, but the Ravens decimated them last week and I don’t love the Eagles’ chances against the Olivier Vernon-led Giants pass rush. Given Philly’s lack of skill position players, this is also the perfect game for Janoris Jenkins to miss. This still could be close—it’s Thursday night and the Giants’ offense hasn’t exactly been inspiring—but if the Giants are really contenders, this is a win and a cover.

BEARS +3.5 over Redskins: Don’t look now, but Matt Barkley has an 82.6 PFF grade this year. Throw in Jordan Howard’s incredible running ability and Washington’s defense—26^th in weighted DVOA—and the Bears, um, might be able to move the ball at home. I’m still worried about the Redskins if they make the playoffs because their offense is dynamic enough to win them games, but getting there won’t be easy—especially after came out flat on Monday night against a beaten down Panthers squad.

BILLS -3.5 over Dolphins: Tyrod Taylor hasn’t been great this year, but calls to get rid of him are unwarranted at best. He has a respectable 105 DYAR, ranks 12^th in QBR and 13^th in PFF grading among QBs. It’s not like he’s lighting the world on fire, but the guy is capable—especially when you throw in the fact that, for most of the year, Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin were his best two receivers. If the Bills make him available, the Jets, 49ers, Browns, Jaguars, Broncos, Texans and Cardinals should all jump at the chance to have him.

Falcons -2.5 over PANTHERS: The Falcons are fourth in regular and weighted DVOA and first in offensive DVOA. Defense is an issue, but Vic Beasley has turned into an impact pass rusher and Deion Jones has a good Defensive Rookie of the Year case. Nearly all of their losses have been in close games as well—nobody’s blown them out and they’ll probably regress.  In other words, this team is a Super Bowl contender and shouldn’t have trouble beating a Panthers team that’s out of it.

Vikings +6.5 over PACKERS: I buy Green Bay’s offensive resurgence, but not their defensive resurgence. In the last four weeks, they’ve played Brock Osweiler, Carson Wentz, Matt Barkley and Russell Wilson. Wilson is the only one of those four with any sort of pedigree and he had his worst game of the year against Green Bay. It’s easy to dismiss Sam Bradford, but pointing to him as the cause of Minnesota’s struggles is flat-out wrong. If their offensive line holds up—far from a guarantee—they will move the ball. That should at least earn them a cover.

PATRIOTS -16.5 over Jets: Instead of firing Todd Bowles, maybe the Jets should look at getting rid of Mike Maccagnan, the general manager. The biggest moves he’s made are bringing in Buster Skrine (an unmitigated disaster), Darrelle Revis (one of the worst contracts in football), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Ryan Fitzpatrick), Antonio Cromartie (yikes), and Matt Forte (played well this year but is 31 with two years left on his contract). He also exercised Sheldon Richardson’s option for 2017, ignoring his constant disciplinary issues and failing to foresee a major dip in play, and gave Muhammad Wilkerson a 5-year megadeal (Wilkerson has a 40.9 PFF grade this year, 117^th among edge rushers). Drafting Leonard Williams was nice, but there wasn’t a single person who has ever watched football that wouldn’t have drafted him in that spot. And while it may be too early to pass judgement on some of his other picks—Devin Smith, Lorenzo Mauldin, Darron Lee and Jordan Jenkins to name a few—Maccagnan drafted Bryce Petty in the 4^th round, then drafted Christian Hackenberg in the second round the next year. If either of them starts for a team that comes remotely close to a winning season, it would be shocking. So, why exactly is their pressure on Todd Bowles instead of the person who built this horrific roster?

Titans -5 over JAGUARS: I have yet to see an adequate explanation of why people are assuming Dave Caldwell doesn’t draft a quarterback this season. Where is it written that a general manager must stay with the first quarterback he drafted until he’s fired? Blake Bortles is terrible—not drafting a quarterback would be committing negligence—and Caldwell’s other moves have generally been fine (if anything, he’s drafted well outside of Bortles). Caldwell has eyes. He can see that the Jaguars need a quarterback, as can anyone else with or without sight. Given that they will be drafting high, the Jaguars will probably draft a quarterback.

Chargers -6 over BROWNS: In lieu of actual Browns analysis, let's set an over/under for the attendance at First Energy Stadium on Sunday. The Browns reported attendance of over 60,000 for their last home game (any picture of the stadium at the time will contradict this number), so let’s put the over/under for reported attendance at 52,500 and the over/under for actual attendance at 12.5.

Colts +3.5 over RAIDERS: These teams are built similarly: high-powered offense compensating for a bad defense. Oakland has had more success because their offensive line is great and their coaching is much better than Indy’s, but neither team is going to have trouble scoring in this one. That makes it a winnable game for the Colts—don’t forget that they don’t just have an offense that can go toe-to-toe with the Raiders; they also have a better kicker. If nothing else, they should at least cover.

Buccaneers +3 over SAINTS: The Bucs are playing for their playoff lives, the Saints are playing for nothing. There’s no one on the Saints’ roster capable of covering Mike Evans and they’re 25^th in DVOA against tight ends, so expect Cameron Brate to have a nice game as well. Even with Jameis Winston being subpar at times, I’ve been impressed with the Bucs over recent weeks. With so much on the line—their playoff chances drop to 15 percent with a loss, per FiveThirtyEight—Tampa Bay should win this game outright.

SEAHAWKS -8 over Cardinals: With a win against the vastly inferior Cardinals, Seattle’s chances of a first-round bye rocket up to 94 percent, per FiveThirtyEight. That’s enough incentive to come out with full force at home and cover.

RAMS -3.5 over 49ers: I’m tempted to leave this space blank because there just isn’t anything to say about these teams. If you pay money to attend this game, it’s time to reevaluate things.

Bengals +1.5 over TEXANS: The Texans are 30^th in DVOA, below the Rams, 49ers, Jaguars and Bears. They just benched Brock Osweiler for a guy who couldn’t hold down a starting job at places like Pitt and Rutgers. Their coach makes an art out of being a moron—did you know that Bill O’Brien accepted a 5-yard penalty that negated an 18-yard gain two weeks ago[2]? Any time this team is favored, bet against them.

Ravens +5 over STEELERS: Baltimore can win at the line of scrimmage, pressure Ben Roethlisberger, slow down Le’Veon Bell and contain Antonio Brown enough to cover—and maybe even eke out a win. Even on the road, the weather will favor a Ravens team that leans on its defense. I don’t buy Pittsburgh’s defense either—against a great offensive line, their pass rush will wilt and the secondary will struggle to find a good matchup against Steve Smith. In a must-win game, I think the Ravens pull it out.

CHIEFS -3.5 over Broncos: If you’re going to bet on a team other than New England to win the AF, it should still be Kansas City at 15/2, per Vegas Insider. One game doesn’t change the fact that this is still a great defense, a great special teams and an offense playing better than it normally does. There’s still good value in this bet, but it won’t last if (and when) they close out the year strong.

COWBOYS -7 over Lions: This could be a resoundingly dominant performance by Dallas’ offense. Detroit is 31^st in defensive DVOA—they have no line and their best defensive back, Darius Slay, got hurt last week. The Cowboys should score at will—there is no position at which they do not have an advantage. Maybe the Lions can keep pace, but I doubt it.

 

Last Week: 4-11-1

Season: 117-100-7

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] If they play Detroit, however, they should get by.

[2] The only excuse is that it was on 1^st and 20, but the logic for that is in the same room as Andy Reid saying the Chiefs didn’t go no-huddle when they were down by two scores with 10 minutes left in the playoffs last year so New England wouldn’t have time to score again.

Week 15 Preview: Where do the Rams go from here?

This week, the Los Angeles Rams finally, mercifully, fired Jeff Fisher. To say it had been a long time coming would be an understatement—Fisher did not have a single winning season with the team and had not enjoyed a winning season with any team since before Barack Obama was President. He was a laughingstock and so were the Rams. They did the right thing in letting Fisher go, even if it was multiple years too late. The question now is how can they make up for all the mistakes he made?

The Rams certainly have talent—Aaron Donald is in the DPOY conversation on a yearly basis, Todd Gurley is one of the most talented running backs in the league and the team spent a #1 pick on Jared Goff last spring. The entire defense has ability—the Rams are 16^th in defensive DVOA and will get better if the front office hires the right coaches. The problem is on the other side of the ball. Goff didn’t play until far too late this season and even after a few games, it’s clear that there’s still a lot of developing to go before he looks like a top-notch quarterback. And thanks to Fisher’s (and the front office’s) epic whiffs in the draft, there’s almost nothing besides Gurley to build the offense around.

Left tackle Greg Robinson is one of the worst draft busts in recent memory. If there’s one decent receiver in the long term between Kenny Britt, Tavon Austin and Brian Quick, the Rams should consider it a success and the same goes for any player on an offensive line that ranks 25^th in adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate. To put yet another problem atop this mess, the Rams traded away their first and third round picks next season for Jared Goff—along with a bevy of picks in the 2016 Draft that produced Derrick Henry and Corey Coleman, among others.

Per Over the Cap, the Rams will have about $41 million to spend in free agency this offseason, but that doesn’t factor in players like Trumaine Johnson, Dominique Easley and T.J. McDonald who are due for raises. Building through free agency is also a dicey proposition—just ask Dave Caldwell—and handing out big money to upcoming free agents like Ronald Leary, T.J. Lang and Joe Bergercould backfire, costing the front office their jobs if Stan Kroenke gets impatient.

In the end, the best answer is probably to build up slowly. The Rams need to hire a good coach, develop Goff into a star, find better players in the draft and eventually build a contender around their defense. That doesn’t happen overnight and it won’t be good for their status in the L.A. market—especially if the Chargers follow through and move there this offseason—but the fact of the matter is that even without Jeff Fisher, the Rams may still be 7-9 in 2017.

On to this week’s picks.

Week 15 Picks

Vegas Insider’s consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Rams +16 over SEAHAWKS: Forget the Rams’ success against Seattle, I just don’t think any team should be favored by 16 on a Thursday night. The short rest has too much of an effect. Seattle probably breaks their losing streak against L.A., but the offensive line’s struggles will be magnified with the short week and they could have trouble moving the ball as a result.

JETS +2.5 over Dolphins: Bryce Petty vs. Matt Moore rivals Alex Tanney vs. Ryan Lindley/Josh Johnson for the worst quarterback matchup in recent NFL history. I have nothing else to say about this game other than recommending that you avoid watching it.

Lions +4.5 over GIANTS: The Giants aren’t well-equipped to take advantage of Detroit’s deficiencies. They just turned in a horrendous offensive performance against Dallas, ranked 21^st in defensive DVOA, and have struggled to sustain drives all year. Detroit, 31^st in defensive DVOA, can do just as well as Dallas if Eli Manning keeps playing this badly. New York can still win the game with their defense, but the Lions should keep this one close enough to cover.  

RAVENS -6 over Eagles: Even after Tom Brady’s surgical dismantling of their defense on Monday, the Ravens rank second in defensive DVOA. Carson Wentz, on the road, with a notable lack of talent at skill positions, is going to have a tough time moving the ball. Maybe Philly’s defense slows down the Ravens enough to keep it close, but I like how Baltimore’s been playing lately. Every game is a must-win for them now—I don’t think they falter against a team that’s essentially out of the playoff picture.  

Packers -6.5 over BEARS: When the Packers struggled, people rushed to blame Aaron Rodgers. Now that the Packers are playing well, they rush to laud Mike McCarthy for getting them through tough times. I’d say that this is how you end up with Jeff Fisher, but it’s too late for the Packers, who will find themselves wondering why they keep going 7-9 in the years after Rodgers retires.

VIKINGS -4 over Colts: I’m so disappointed that Chuck Pagano wasn’t the first coach fired after I picked him at 12/1 before the season. The Colts had the perfect window to do it—right after they lost to Jacksonville in London—but they held out and stayed just competitive enough to justify keeping Pagano. Now, their chances to make the playoffs are virtually dead and they’ll probably fire Pagano (and Ryan Grigson) after the season for their colossal failure to build a contender around Andrew Luck. Oh, well.

BILLS -10 over Browns: If the Browns fire everyone after the season, then they deserve to be 0-16. They didn’t just know that this would be a rough year, even by their standards, they probably tanked to some extent. Oh, and every quarterback on their team got hurt. Football needs some sort of innovation. Maybe Sashi Brown and Paul DePodesta’s plan works, maybe it doesn’t, but firing them now brings Cleveland back to square one for the nth year in a row.

Titans +5.5 over CHIEFS: The Chiefs should win this outright, but the Titans will run the ball, control possession and get Marcus Mariota to the red zone where he excels. Unless Kansas City really has abandoned their conservative approach, this will be a slow-developing game on their side as well. Maybe they can pull away with big plays on special teams—they seem to do it every week—but I expect the Titans to hang in and keep it close.

TEXANS -6 over Jaguars: Jacksonville has more incentive to tank than any team right now. Outside of Gus Bradley and Blake Bortles trying to save their own skins—something they have failed at spectacularly—there’s no reason for the franchise to win their remaining games this year. They quietly slid Julius Thomas and Jared Odrick to IR last week—don’t be surprised if Chris Ivory or Allen Hurns join them soon.

BENGALS +3 over Steelers: If A.J. Green is out, I’ll probably change this, but assuming he’s back, the Bengals are capable of beating Pittsburgh outright. There have been just four games this year where Green and Tyler Eifert have both been healthy—Pittsburgh is going to struggle to cover both. It’s also a revenge game of sorts for Vontaze Burfict, who was suspended for the initial meeting between these teams. Even with the Bengals out of it, I’m putting the Steelers on upset watch this week.

Saints +2.5 over CARDINALS: The Cardinals have an interesting dilemma with Carson Palmer in the offseason. I’m not sure what team would take him in a trade—his salary isn’t very high so maybe the Jets or 49ers go for it—but it’s clear that Arizona can’t win with him at the quarterback position. With talent all over the roster, it’s tough to just cut bait and sacrifice at least a year without any reward. Maybe they can trade up in the draft with one of the aforementioned teams, but that would involve shelling out future draft stock for an unproven rookie. It’s an unpleasant crossroads for a team that wanted to contend for a Super Bowl this season, but how they handle it will be telling.

FALCONS -14 over 49ers: I learned a few things last week. Among them were: don’t pick the Browns or 49ers, ever.

BRONCOS +3 over Patriots: Historically, playing in Denver has given New England fits during the Tom Brady Era. In nine games at Mile High since 2001, including the playoffs, the Patriots have won just twice. I also don’t entirely buy that New England’s offensive line is leaps and bounds better than last season. There’s certainly been improvement, but pass blocking will still be an issue against the squad that decimated them in the AFC Championship Game last season. If they’re going to lose a game for the rest of the season, this will be the one.

Raiders -3 over CHARGERS: This line is still factoring the Chargers as the home team, but there will probably be just as many (or more) Raider fans in attendance. With Philip Rivers struggling, San Diego having lost three of their last four and Oakland coming off 10 days’ rest, I’m not sure why this line isn’t closer to six or seven points.

COWBOYS -7 over Buccaneers: This is the game where Dak Prescott has to put the Romo debate to bed. Dallas is on national TV again, against an inferior opponent. If they can win convincingly behind their quarterback of the future, nobody will utter another word about this asinine debate again. Please Dak, save us from the takes.

REDSKINS -5 over Panthers: Carolina has yet to beat a team with a winning record and they won’t start this week . Washington’s receiving corps is too deep, their offensive line too good and Josh Norman too motivated for anything less than a convincing victory on Monday.

 

Last Week: 9-6-1

Season: 113-89-6

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

Week 14 Preview: Tom Brady is the MVP and it isn't close

The Most Valuable Player award is meant to represent the best player in a given sport. Sure, we can get into semantics and argue about the use of the word “valuable,” but the award is supposed to be given to the best player. With that simple definition in mind, the best player in football this year—and thus the MVP—is Tom Brady.

Yes, he missed four games thanks to an unjust suspension, but that doesn’t change what he did on the field. Right now, Brady leads the league in passer rating, QBR and adjusted net yards per attempt. On a per game basis, he’s fourth in passing yards. He’s also third in touchdown percentage and is on pace to set a single-season record for interception percentage, having been picked off on just 0.3 percent of his throws. Despite throwing downfield with regularity—he has a 2.4 ALEX—Brady is third in completion percentage and despite missing those four games, he’s sixth in DYAR, ahead of Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger by notable margins. Brady also has a 95.4 PFF grade—that’s not just the best among quarterbacks, it’s tied with Aaron Donald for the best in football.  

Put all of this together and it’s hard to find a reason not to give the award to Brady. Missing four games means that the bar is set higher for him, but if he hasn’t hit that bar then what else could he possibly do? The only reason more people haven’t advocated for Brady is that there’s been a lack of signature moments on his part—in other words, the Patriots are too good. Outside of the game they lost to Seattle and their victory against the Jets two weeks ago, New England hasn’t had any close games this season since Brady returned. They haven’t beaten expectations either because the expectation is a Super Bowl. That makes Brady a boring pick—the suspension only gives voters an excuse to go with Derek Carr, Matt Ryan, Ezekiel Elliott or Dak Prescott, all of whom have been worse than Brady this year.

It’s easy to overlook because, let’s face it, we expect it at this point. Anything less than an AFC title game appearance would inspire Skip Bayless to proclaim that Jimmy Garoppolo should start next season. But that expectation has clouded our judgement. If we look at things objectively, Tom Brady has been the best player in football this year and it isn’t very close.

Week 14 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

CHIEFS -3 over Raiders: Kansas City matches up well in this game. They can move the ball against a bad defense and slow down Oakland just enough to eke out a win. Justin Houston will go up against Austin Howard, by far the worst player on Oakland’s offensive line—so the Chiefs may be able to manufacture some pressure against a normally sound Raider line. It only takes a small explosion from Oakland to win—they went from down 24-9 to up 38-24 in a matter of minutes on Sunday—but Kansas City has already slowed them down this year and that was on the road, without the short week. If the Chiefs can win this game, they’ll take up the mantle in the AFC as the team to beat (outside of New England that is), so take them at 6/1 to win the AFC or 12/1 to win the Super Bowl while you can.

TITANS -1 over Broncos: Like last week, I’ll reexamine this once we know Trevor Siemian’s status. As of now, I assume he’s out, so I like Tennessee. The Broncos, despite ranking first in defensive DVOA, are 26^th in run defense DVOA, which plays right into the Titans’ wheelhouse. Couple that with Marcus Mariota’s off the charts red zone efficiency and Tennessee should be able to win this game if Denver is forced to start the ever-hapless Paxton Lynch at quarterback.

Chargers +1 over PANTHERS: This game has no impact on the playoff picture, so let’s talk about the absurdity of the Chargers potentially playing games at the L.A. Coliseum next season instead. I understand there aren’t many good options in Los Angeles, but having three teams play at a stadium that’s already run down is a disaster waiting to happen. Every home Rams game already features the USC logo badly hidden underneath the NFL logo at midfield, we don’t need to add a third team to this mix. Go to the StubHub Center and deal with the smallest crowd in the league (by far) for two years. Try to work out a deal with the Rose Bowl. Stay in San Diego until the Rams’ complex in Los Angeles is complete. I don’t really care; just don’t subject us to a year of stories about the field at the Coliseum being unplayable.

Texans +6 over COLTS: This line is an overreaction to Indy beating up on the Jets in a nationally televised game. The Colts shouldn’t be six-point favorites over any remotely competitive team—they rank 30^th in defensive DVOA and provide almost exclusively on Andrew Luck to move the ball. Maybe they win this one outright—Brock Osweiler is certainly incompetent enough to make it happen—but they should at least keep this game close.

BROWNS +5.5 over Bengals: The Browns are +210 to win straight-up this week, per Sportsbook, and +130 to finish 0-16. One of those two things will happen. This is by far their best chance to win—Robert Griffin III is coming back and the Bengals are both in the midst of a death march and badly depleted without A.J. Green. If they lose, their remaining games are against Buffalo, San Diego and Pittsburgh. Unless the Steelers win their next three and decide to rest their players in Week 17 instead of going for a slim chance at the #2 seed, none of those are winnable for the Browns. With better-than-even odds on both, this is easy money.

BILLS +2 over Steelers: I don’t understand why the Steelers are favored in this game. Not only are they on the road, but the Bills are a better team. They have the best run game in the league by DVOA—Pittsburgh is a respectable 12^th in adjusted line yards on defense, but they’re not going into the cold and stopping LeSean McCoy. If the Bills can turn this into a contest of running backs, they’re going to win. As good as Le’Veon Bell is, the Bills have a better defensive front than Pittsburgh, the weather on their side and a much better running game by DVOA. Buffalo can, and will, win this game outright.

DOLPHINS -1 over Cardinals: The Cardinals have played well lately and Miami just got embarrassed in a huge game, but until the Arizona at 1 PM on the East Coast Corollary fails, I’m blindly going by it.

Bears +8 over LIONS: The Lions are coming off games against Minnesota and New Orleans; after this week, they visit the Giants and Cowboys. This has trap game written all over it. The Bears can run the ball against a shambolic Detroit defense and on the other side of the ball, Chicago quietly ranks 16^th in DVOA. That’s good enough to cover—and maybe even eke out a win—against a Detroit side looking for a week off.

Vikings -3.5 over JAGUARS: If the Jaguars lose out, they probably end up with the #2 pick. With Lamar Jackson and DeShaun Watson both available in the Draft, I’m not sure how you can justify not tanking—a perfect explanation for why the Jags are waiting until the season ends to fire Gus Bradley.

Redskins -1 over EAGLES: A few weeks ago, I wrote that if the Wentz Wagon were in the Oregon Trail game, everyone on it would have dysentery. Now, there’s only one ox left—the rest have been killed for food—and about half the people on the wagon are dead. Also, they still need to cross the Mississippi River.

49ERS -2.5 over Jets: I don’t think Todd Bowles is a bad coach, but he’s trying as hard as he can to prove me wrong. The Jets have flat-out quit on the season and they announced it on national television. With Bryce Petty starting for the remainder of the year, it’s tough to see them competing in any games—even against whichever quarterback Chip Kelly trots out this week in San Francisco[1].

BUCCANEERS -2.5 over Saints: I bet against Tampa worming their way into the playoff conversation and they proved me wrong. They should move the ball at will against New Orleans—which ranks 25^th in defensive DVOA and features no player remotely capable of covering Mike Evans. This game should be an interesting test for their defense, but given how well they’ve played against Kansas City, Seattle and San Diego in the past three weeks, I like their chances.

Seahawks -3 over PACKERS: Quality of opponent matters. In the past two weeks, the Packers have played the Eagles and Texans—two teams that will get trounced in the first round if things go perfectly for the rest of the season—and looked great. Against Seattle—a Super Bowl contender—things might not go as well. Even without Earl Thomas, the Seahawks are still capable of consistently pressuring Aaron Rodgers and making things tough for a receiving corps that regularly struggles to get open. With Thomas Rawls back and Green Bay’s defense ranking 20^th in weighted DVOA, Seattle can move the ball on offense as well. Unless Rodgers puts in an incredible performance, the Packers are in danger of being blown out.

Falcons -6 over RAMS: Jeff Fisher may be having the worst two-week stretch in the history of coaching. He forgot the name of New England’s running backs; had the entire world laugh at his extension; got blown out against the Patriots, forgetting where his challenge flag was in the middle of it; forgot his general manager also received an extension, then tried to look at the bright side by talking about how good the Rams are at punting and saying that they don’t have to leave Pacific Standard Time again this year (never mind that Los Angeles is 2-4 in their own time zone). If the Rams lose this week, Fisher ties Dan Reeves for the most coaching losses of all-time, with nearly 17 less wins, 19 less overall games and three less playoff appearances. Fisher’s last winning season was during the Bush administration—it’s becoming increasingly safe to say that he’s among the worst coaches of all-time.

Cowboys -3 over GIANTS: With a depleted defensive line, the Giants are going to have trouble in run defense—normally their calling card—and it’s going to be tough for them to contain one of the league’s best passing attacks. Unless Eli Manning shakes off his struggles in a big way, I don’t see how New York can keep up with the Cowboys’ offense.

Ravens +7 over PATRIOTS: This reminds me a lot of the playoff game between these teams two years ago. The Patriots won that game despite having no run game or pass rush thanks to one of the best games of Tom Brady’s career and an insane coaching performance from Bill Belichick—featuring Julian Edelman throwing a touchdown pass and eligible/ineligible receiver shenanigans that drove John Harbaugh to insanity. Belichick won’t break out those goods for a regular season game when the Patriots have a tight grip on the division and the Patriots don’t have Rob Gronkowski to bail them out if needed. I think they still manage to win it, but this should be a close game—perhaps the highlight of Monday Night Football this year.

 

Last Week: 8-7-0

Season: 104-83-5

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] I don’t think I’ve ever been proven wrong more quickly than last week with Colin Kaepernick. He truly did play well for two games and I talked myself into Kaepernick potentially being redeemable. Then, he threw for four yards. The internet always laughs at people for saying “I could do (blank),” but most able-bodied people could throw for four yards in an NFL game—even in cold weather. As long as you complete one or two screen passes, you’re set, but Kaepernick couldn’t even do that. It’s sort of incredible.