We are roughly halfway through the NFL season and there has not been a single head coach fired. That is an upset in its own right, but if history is any indication, there are firings coming soon. This week, I decided to go over the most likely firings. Let’s get right to it.
Chuck Pagano: I picked Pagano before the season to be the first coach fired and I am standing by it, even as Gus Bradley implodes in Jacksonville. There were real expectations in Indianapolis, this year and last, and the Colts are languishing in third place in a division that may not feature a winning team this year. Injuries provided a valid excuse in 2015, but there are no such issues this year. Yet, the Colts are 3-5 heading into this week. Without a miracle win at Lambeau this week, I do not see how the Colts retain Pagano heading into their bye week.
Gus Bradley: There are no excuses left for Bradley, whose career record sits at 14-41 after four years—2016 being the first with expectations. Firing offensive coordinator Greg Olson may buy Bradley some time, but it’s not so much a matter of “if” but “when” Bradley is canned.
Mike McCoy: My assumption is that McCoy will be fired after the season once the Chargers begin to transition for their move to Los Angeles[1]. That would be a sensible time to make a coaching change, though if the Chargers think they can contend then I would advise a change now. McCoy is not an Andy Reid-type coach in close games—there is not one thing he is particularly bad at like clock management—but San Diego has constantly lost close games under him. Some of it—like botched snaps on field goals—does not stem from coaching, but there have been mistakes made leading up to those moments in droves. At a certain point, those mistakes pile up and a change must be made.
Jeff Fisher: Jeff Fisher will never be fired, but it does not change the fact that he is a horrific head coach. This has only been reinforced by the Rams standing by Case Keenum as if Jared Goff—the #1 overall pick in the draft that they traded a massive amount of draft capital in order to obtain—is JaMarcus Russell reincarnate.
Let’s get to the picks.
Week 9 Picks
Vegas Insiders’ consensus odds are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.
Falcons -4 over BUCCANEERS: Without any of their top-3 running backs, Tampa Bay will have to depend on Jameis Winston to provide their offense this week. The problem is that Winston is mistake-prone; having thrown nine picks thus far, and is outside the top-20 in both DYAR and DVOA. The Bucs can win this in a shootout, but I do not trust their 22nd-ranked offense in DVOA to keep it close.
CHIEFS -7.5 over Jaguars: I thought long and hard about picking Jacksonville here—it’s tempting with Nick Foles starting and serious trap game potential—but picking the Jaguars on the road is just stupid at this point. They may cover, but it is just irresponsible to pick Blake Bortles to cover on the road—even against Nick Foles.
Lions +6 over VIKINGS: The Vikings are in a free fall right now. I initially thought they could climb out of it this week—and they still may win—but Norv Turner resigning this morning is a big deal, even if Sam Bradford worked with Pat Shurmur in Philly. Detroit’s defense is awful, but their one area of competency is the pass rush—Kerry Hyder has come onto the scene this year with five sacks and both Ziggy Ansah and Haloti Ngata can be disruptive forces against a truly horrific Minnesota offensive line. In what should be a low-scoring game, the Lions can cover on the road.
Eagles +2.5 over GIANTS: Until the Giants’ offense really starts to click; they are not going to beat the best defensive team in the league by DVOA. New York has talent, but Eli Manning has struggled and Ben McAdoo’s system has been an unmitigated disaster this season. This is a must-win game for both teams, but the Eagles are simply a better team in every facet of the game.
Cowboys -7 over BROWNS: New England is not playing this week and I do not feel this pick needs much explanation, so I am going to use this space to talk about the Jamie Collins trade because I do not understand what the Patriots were thinking. I do not care if the Patriots were not going to resign him and I do not care if he was not playing quite as well as he normally does. Jamie Collins is a top-10 linebacker—arguably, a top-10 defensive player in general—and trading him makes the Patriots markedly worse on defense. For analysts who may or may not be friends with Bill Belichick (cough*Mike Lombardi*cough) to say Collins was playing badly and New England’s defense needed fixing is utterly ridiculous. He had a bad game against Buffalo and maybe he was freelancing—I do not know what plays Matt Patricia is calling—but acting like trading one of the best defensive players in the league “fixes” New England’s defense is flat-out stupid. The Patriots are top-10 in yardage and top-5 in points on defense. Those numbers paper over some issues, but the linebacker position is not one of them. Obviously, Bill Belichick is smarter than I am and knows what he is doing and the Patriots will probably win the Super Bowl regardless, but New England’s PR campaign against Collins is shameful.
DOLPHINS -3.5 over Jets: The Dolphins are 18th in DVOA and playing at home after their two best wins in recent memory and a bye week. The Jets are 31st in DVOA and playing on the road after they struggled to beat Cleveland. New York is also trotting out Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, someone whom the organization seems to have no faith in whatsoever (with good reason). If there is a reason to take the Jets this week, I have not found it.
Steelers +3 over RAVENS: According to reports today, it seems likely that Ben Roethlisberger will play this week in which case the Steelers should win outright and this line will probably move to a pick’em. If Roethlisberger does not play, I may change my pick but if this line is still three when this publishes, people should jump on it immediately.
49ERS +3.5 over Saints: New Orleans is coming off games in Kansas City and against Seattle. After this week, they play Denver and go to Carolina. This is a trap game and the Saints will fall victim.
Panthers -3 over RAMS: The Panthers are not a bad offensive team—they rank 14th in offensive DVOA and Jonathan Stewart should play which means good things are to come. As long as Case Keenum is under center, the Rams are ill equipped to take advantage of Carolina’s secondary deficiencies. Without being able to throw the ball, it is tough to beat Carolina and the Rams cannot throw the ball.
PACKERS -7 over Colts: Aaron Rodgers had a 125.5 passer rating last week so I guess it turns out his career is not finished. With Green Bay’s offense back to normal—, which is to say that Rodgers is making up for all of Mike McCarthy’s flaws as a coach again—they will not have any trouble scoring against an awful Indy defense. On the other side of the ball, Green Bay can dominate at the line of scrimmage enough to prevent Andrew Luck from wreaking too much havoc—a formula good enough to cover.
Titans +5 over CHARGERS: This game intrigues me because I am still not sure what to make of the Titans. A win here would put them ½ games out in the AFC South and I think there is enough talent on the roster to win a bad division. Whether or not that talent can overcome Mike Mularkey’s coaching is another question, but this game could be an indicator. I do not know if they can win, but I think they keep it close against disaster-prone Chargers.
Broncos over RAIDERS (pick’em): The Raiders are going to struggle against good defenses and the Broncos’ unit is a hell of a lot better than good. Denver can move the ball against the Raiders’ defense—which ranks 28th in DVOA—without much trouble and Oakland has penalty issues across the board. FiveThirtyEight has Denver as three-point favorite, an assessment that makes sense given that Denver is on the road.
Bills +7 over SEAHAWKS: Until Russell Wilson gets fully healthy; it is going to be tough for Seattle to manufacture offense. Their offensive line will not hold up well against a Bills team ranked second in adjusted sack rate and if Wilson is not able to create things out of the blue, the Seahawks will not be able to move the ball. They can still win in a low-scoring game, but the Bills should cover regardless.
Last Week: 6-7-0
Season: 67-51-2
All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted
[1] Yes, I am also assuming that San Diego votes not to fund the team’s stadium next week and the team moves.
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