Week 12 Preview: Thanksgiving Watchability Rankings

Welcome to the annual Thanksgiving Watchability Rankings. These rankings are based solely on how fun it is to watch a given team—win-loss record is not taken into account, though better teams are often more fun to watch, nor is any statistical factor. Let’s get right to it.

Tier 7: Avoid under all circumstances

32. Los Angeles Rams
33. San Francisco 49ers
34. New York Jets
35. Jacksonville Jaguars
36. Cleveland Browns
37. Chicago Bears
38. Houston Texans

If you’re watching one of these teams, strap in for a long game. Bad quarterbacks consume each of them, which offset any redeeming value they should have as a team. Take out the revolving door of misery at quarterback and the Browns, for example, are sort of fun. Terrelle Pryor does things, Isaiah Crowell is a good, physical running back and Hue Jackson is an inventive coach. But alas, Josh McCown and Cody Kessler will get the majority of snaps at quarterback this year, confining their offense to stagnation. There are similar situations for just about every team in this tier—it serves as a reminder that teams like Denver are the exception, not the rule. If you’re going to compete, quarterbacks are pretty damn important.

Tier 6: Competitive but boring

25. Indianapolis Colts
26. Green Bay Packers
27. Tennessee Titans
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
29. Miami Dolphins

Seeing the Colts and Packers here may surprise people, but both teams are sloppy, badly coached and lacking in any redeeming value outside of the quarterback position. In Indianapolis, Andrew Luck rarely has time to throw the ball and while Aaron Rodgers often has ample time, no Packers receiver can get open downfield. The Titans should be higher up, but they play such a primitive style that if the offense isn’t humming, it can be hard to sit through. Tampa and Miami are less interesting on paper—and have less upside in watchability—but things are more consistent in both places.

Tier 5: Meh

20. Cincinnati Bengals
21. Arizona Cardinals
22. Baltimore Ravens

None of these teams is particularly awe-inspiring, but each of them will give you a decent game to watch. The Bengals may slide in the wake of injuries to A.J. Green, their most dynamic player, and Giovani Bernard—I dropped them from 18 to 20 and it may have been too generous—but Tyler Eifert gets rolling, it’s mesmerizing football. The Cardinals and Ravens aren’t particularly fun offensively, but consistently play competitive games. Plus, who doesn’t love to watch Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Smith put the rest of the NFL to shame?

Tier 4: Sure, why not?

17. Detroit Lions
18. Minnesota Vikings
19. New York Giants
20. Philadelphia Eagles
21. Carolina Panthers
22. Washington Redskins

Other than Minnesota (and arguably Philly), every team in this tier is capable of moving the ball on offense and other than Carolina, every team in this tier is going to be playing meaningful games over the next month. I’m particularly optimistic about Washington’s watchability—Jay Gruden has quietly built up one of the best skill position groups in the league. There aren’t any superstars (though if Rob Kelley continues on his current pace, he will be one soon), but it’s impossible to defend Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon, Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson all at once. There’s just too much talent on the field—and Kirk Cousins often has his pick of where to throw.

Tier 4: Good defense, bad offense

11. Kansas City Chiefs
12. Buffalo Bills

Kansas City and Buffalo remind us every week that defense is fun too. Marcus Peters is the cornerback version of Barry Sanders—you’re getting either an awe-inspiring interception or a badly blown coverage with little room for moderation. They also got Justin Houston back last week to improve the pass rush, which had lagged a bit in his absence. The Bills have set the standard in terms of rushing the passer this season, leading the league in adjusted sack rate. Both teams have enough dynamism offensively to keep you entertained as well. It’s fun to watch LeSean McCoy and Spencer Ware run the ball. Alex Smith isn’t tossing many deep balls, but Tyrod Taylor can still drop one or two dimes per game, even without Sammy Watkins.

Tier 3: Good offense, bad defense

9. New Orleans Saints
10. Atlanta Falcons

The Saints are fifth in offensive DVOA and 24^th in defensive DVOA; Atlanta is second in offensive DVOA and 27^th in defensive DVOA. That doesn’t just mean fun offense, it means high-scoring games, like the Packers-Falcons game that ended 33-32 in Week 8—one of the better matchups this season. Watching Drew Brees and Matt Ryan work in the pocket is a treat—both operate efficiently and surgically. The Falcons have bigger names at the skill positions—Julio Jones does things that humans shouldn’t be capable of on a weekly basis—but the Saints have quietly put together a decent run game and turned unknowns like Michael Thomas into weapons at wide receiver.

Tier 2: Stop what you’re doing to watch

7. Denver Broncos
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
9. San Diego Chargers
10. Seattle Seahawks
11. New England Patriots

I don’t think the Steelers or Chargers are making the playoffs, but both have partaken in some of the best games this season. The Steelers-Cowboys game two weeks ago is on the shortlist for Game of the Year and when healthy, the Pittsburgh moves the ball like no other team. The Roethlisberger-Bell-Brown combination is lethel to most defenses—we haven’t gotten many instances this year of all three being 100 percent, but there will be more in the next month. In San Diego, Philip Rivers has cemented himself as arguably the most underrated players in football. And Rivers isn’t marching the Chargers downfield, they’re often imploding—San Diego has lost more heartbreakers this year than you can count. Denver isn’t the best offensive team in the league, but Von Miller’s ability on defense more than makes up for it. In New England and Seattle, you get high-quality football through and through. They are the two best teams in football—it’s always must-see when either comes across your television.

Tier 1: Dallas and Oakland

2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Oakland Raiders

Oakland gets the top spot because they play more close games—they even made the Texans palatable on Monday night—but both of these teams are offensive machines. Dallas can put Ezekiel Elliott behind their offensive line and guarantee fireworks on any drive while Derek Carr can rip it to Oakland’s All-Star cast of wideouts and do the same. Forget about measuring these teams against the rest of football—watching these two offenses at work is one of the most enjoyable experiences you’ll have this year.

On to the picks.

Week 12 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Vikings +1.5 over LIONS: The central question to every Vikings game is whether their offensive line can function. The Lions rank 18^th in adjusted sack rate and 24^th in adjusted line yards, but Kerry Hyder is their only starting lineman with a PFF grade above 51.3. I’m not as worried about Minnesota being on the road since Ford Field is indoors and it’s a short week, which means all conventional wisdom can be thrown out the window. As long Minnesota’s line holds up, they should win this game outright.

COWBOYS -7 over Redskins: I thought Baltimore was the perfect foil for Dallas last week and for the first half, I was right. Then the Cowboys essentially moved the ball at will in the second half and I realized that it’s almost impossible to stop this team from moving the ball for an entire game. I don’t think the Redskins can win a shootout—it’s an especially short turnaround for them after playing on Sunday night and Dallas is good enough defensively to prevent the big plays that Washington thrived on against Green Bay.

Steelers -9 over COLTS: The Colts rank 31^st in defensive DVOA and Scott Tolzien is playing quarterback for them. There is no reason this line shouldn’t be at least 13.5 points[1].

Chargers -1.5 over TEXANS: Brock Osweiler currently ranks dead last among qualified quarterbacks with -448 DYAR. Second worst is Ryan Fitzpatrick with -360 DYAR. In short, don’t put money on Brock Osweiler.

Titans -5 over BEARS: Matt Barkley’s career stats: 36/65, 381 yards, 0 TDs, 6 INTs, 1.12 adjusted net yards per attempt. If you thought the quality of the quarterback position was bad, this will not be a fun week for you.

BILLS -7.5 over Jaguars: Jacksonville is 23^rd in run defense DVOA and 32^nd in power success. Now they have to go to Buffalo—where the high temperature will be 42 degrees according to AccuWeather—and stop the best rushing attack in the league by DVOA. For once, Blake Bortles won’t be the biggest reason for a Jacksonville loss.

Bengals +4 over RAVENS: The Bengals have won just one game since Week 5 and I don’t expect that this will be the second. However, this line seems like a bit of an overreaction to A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard being injured. Baltimore is a bad offensive team—even against a mediocre Bengals defense, they’ll struggle to move the ball. In a low-scoring game, I like the underdog.

FALCONS -4 over Cardinals: I’m not going to try to explain this phenomena, but the Cardinals are consistently awful on the East Coast. They haven’t won a game in the Eastern time zone since Week 8 of last season—against the Browns. With Carson Palmer finding it impossible to replicate his MVP-caliber 2015, I don’t love Arizona in this matchup either way, but they just can’t play on the East Coast.

DOLPHINS -7.5 over 49ers: Over the past few weeks, Miami has convinced me that they’re at least a playoff contender. There’s trap game potential here, but this is still a must-win game if the Dolphins are to keep that status. If they lose, their playoff odds drop to 22 percent, per the NYT Upshot simulator, with games coming against Baltimore and Arizona that would turn into must-win contests.

Rams +7 over SAINTS: Jared Goff was, um, uninspiring last week, but that’s almost to be expected in his debut—especially when things have been so horribly mismanaged. He gets to face a bad defense this week—for all the credit New Orleans has gotten; they still rank 24^th in defensive DVOA—and the Rams can slow down the Saints enough to keep it close. They have arguably the best run defense in football and their secondary will hold up if Aaron Donald and co can pressure Drew Brees with some consistency.

Giants -7 over BROWNS: Watching Josh McCown is one of the most depressing experiences you can have as a football fan. The Browns have at least been feisty at times with Cody Kessler under center, but kicking off with McCown as your starter is like signing a declaration of war underneath a white flag. Here’s to Robert Griffin III returning soon.

Seahawks -6 over BUCCANEERS: The Seahawks have taken the top spot in DVOA and they are playing like the best team in football. Russell Wilson is healthy, the defense looks great (with Michael Bennett potentially returning this week) and the offensive line is playing at a semi-acceptable level. I can’t see Jameis Winston keeping it close against this defense at full strength—the only way the Bucs cover is by consistently getting pressure, forcing Wilson to break the pocket and make plays with his legs, where the injury may still be taking a toll. However, Tampa is a mediocre 15^th in adjusted sack rate, so that seems unlikely.

Panthers +3 over RAIDERS: Oakland’s defense is going to be a liability for them in games like this. Carolina is coming off 10 days rest while the Raiders are on six days rest after playing on a Monday night in Mexico City. That doesn’t bode well for a team that ranks 29^th in defensive DVOA. Furthermore, the Raiders can’t match up with Greg Olsen and will struggle against a strong receiving corps. Sure, they may be able to keep up on the opposite end, but Carolina’s defense is significantly better—even without Luke Kuechly—and their secondary has put it together for the past few weeks.

Patriots -7.5 over JETS: Thank god they flexed this game out of prime time. Ryan Fitzpatrick on Sunday Night Football would have been an unmitigated disaster for all parties involved.

Chiefs +3 over BRONCOS: This game will come down to two things: defense and field position. The Broncos have the best defense in the league, but KC has the edge in field position. The Chiefs are also going to turn the ball over less—one of few positive outcomes resulting from Alex Smith being their quarterback. There is a clear advantage for Denver defensively, but the Chiefs are barely outside the top-10 in DVOA and Trevor Siemian isn’t exactly picking teams apart. This game is close to a toss-up, but I give it to the Chiefs by a hair.

Packers +4 over EAGLES: If the Wentz Wagon was in the Oregon Trail game, everyone on it would have contracted dysentery over the past few weeks—the rookie quarterback has thrown two touchdowns and four interceptions in the past three games with a paltry 58.59 completion percentage. Nobody’s dying yet—that wagon made it pretty far before people started getting sick—but prospects are grim.

 

Last Week: 8-5-1

Season: 89-68-4

All stats are from pro-football reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] Isn’t a Steelers/Giants/Patriots 6-point teaser the easiest bet of the year? How is the Pittsburgh line not higher solely to prevent people from betting their life savings on that tease?