One of my earliest football memories is walking into Sal’s Pizzeria in Mamaroneck as the 2007 NFC Divisional Round game between the Giants and Cowboys was nearing its conclusion. Dallas had the ball near the red zone with no timeouts left, needing a score to win. I stood by the counter watching as the Tony Romo threw two incomplete passes then, on 4th and 11, was intercepted by R.W. McQuarters in the end zone.
My first memory of Tony Romo is the same as the memory of him that will endure among many as the years pass: choking away a game the Cowboys—7-point favorites in this specific matchup—should have won. And that’s unfortunate. Romo’s failures on the biggest stages—dropping the snap against Seattle, the McQuarters interception, two Week 17 losses that decided the division and even the playoff game in Green Bay two years ago—will forever overshadow the fact that for eight seasons—2006-2014[1]—he turned the Cowboys into a respectable team despite a supporting cast that was often forgettable at best. When finally given a good team to play with, Romo turned the Cowboys into a Super Bowl contender, turning in MVP-type numbers in 2014 and directing the best offense in the league. In 2015, when he could have followed up on that year, Romo instead suffered an injury. In 2016, when he could have redeemed himself yet again, another injury sunk his season and allowed him to be supplanted by Dak Prescott, likely ending any chance Romo had of winning a title as a starter.
After his press conference yesterday, I decided to pull up a comparison of Romo and Dan Marino, just for kicks. Marino played nearly 100 more games so the counting stats aren’t close except for sacks—Romo is just 28 behind Marino, an apt metaphor for his career. In terms of rate stats—completion percentage, passer rating, yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt—Romo nearly sweeps the entire board. Things are easier for quarterbacks now than in the ‘80s and ‘90s when Marino played, both from a coaching and rules perspective, so if you want to throw that comparison out then go ahead, but there are probably few quarterbacks with more similar careers. And I don’t know if Marino was seen as a choker the way Romo is, but if he played today I can guarantee that Miami’s 8-10 record with him in the postseason—along with the fact that they made it to the Divisional Round the year after he retired—would dominate the conversation around him, just as similar shortcomings will dominate the conversation around Romo for the rest of time.
On to the picks.
Week 11 Picks
Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.
Saints +3.5 over PANTHERS: Carolina’s playoff chances are being vastly overstated right now. They are 3-6, in last place in the NFC South, with a bad secondary and offensive line. Their playoff chances don’t hinge on this game—their playoff chances are already dead. New Orleans isn’t particularly trustworthy in this game either—the 29th ranked defense by DVOA on the road with a short week doesn’t inspire confidence, but the Saints can win a shootout, or at least keep it close enough to cover, if necessary.
Titans +3 over COLTS: They may not be able to overcome a 1.5-game deficit, but the Titans are the best team in the AFC South and it is not close. Marcus Mariota looks great, even with the Mike Mularkey-induced handicap he ranks 10th in DYAR and 11th in DVOA among quarterbacks. The Colts won’t be able to get pressure against a line that has quietly been one of the best in football and Tennessee will be able to move the ball at will against the 31st-ranked defense by DVOA. The Titans should win this game outright, let alone against the spread.
LIONS -6.5 over Jaguars: Is there really much explanation needed after this?
CHIEFS -7.5 over Buccaneers: According to FiveThirtyEight's Elo ratings, the Chiefs are the second-best team in football, with the third-best chance to win the Super Bowl. I would not go that far, but Kansas City is a lot better than people think—the defense has ranked top-10 in DVOA without Justin Houston, and even though the offense is far from inspiring, it is good enough to win on a given week. I do not trust Jameis Winston for a second on the road against a great defense—he has played well as of late, but the Bucs have had an easy schedule for the past few weeks. If his play continues this week and next week—against Seattle—then I’ll buy Jameis stock, but until then I’m holding off.
GIANTS -7.5 over Bears: After Jay Cutler’s recent performances and Mike Freeman reporting that most of the locker room has given up on their quarterback, I’m surprised that this line is still in the single digits. At this point, it’s pretty hard to fathom the Bears even competing on the road against a potential playoff team—even if the Giants have a history of blowing games like this one.
VIKINGS over Cardinals (pick’em): I would not touch this game with a 10-foot pole. The Vikings are still reeling after losing their fourth straight game and Arizona’s offense was horrific against the 49ers last week (along with every other opponent they have played this year). I think Minnesota can win a low-scoring game because their special teams are significantly better, but I do not have much faith in them after the past few weeks.
Bills +3 over BENGALS: The Bills can win this game outright. Cincinnati is vulnerable on the offensive line and Buffalo leads the league in adjusted sack rate already. Offensively, the Bills can move the ball with the run game—Cincy ranks 20th in run defense DVOA—and Tyrod Taylor is good enough to throw deep against a Bengals’ defense that ranks 29th in DVOA against deep balls. The Bengals are a better team on paper, but the matchup favors the Bills.
Ravens +7 over COWBOYS: If any team in the league can slow down the Cowboys’ offense, it’s the Baltimore Ravens. John Harbaugh’s squad has the best run defense in the league by DVOA and is just outside the top-5 in pass defense DVOA. Dallas’ offensive line may be good enough that it won’t matter, but if the Ravens can force Dak Prescott to operate without a run game—and potentially without a lead—it will take the rookie out of his comfort zone and could force a few mistakes out of him. If their offense isn’t playing at a high level, the Cowboys cannot depend on their defense—even against Joe Flacco and a lackluster Baltimore offense. Expect this one to be close—and be on the lookout for an upset.
Steelers -8 over BROWNS: Unless the Browns can pull off a major upset, they are not winning a game this year. Their remaining schedule consists of two games against the Steelers, a visit to Buffalo and home games against the Giants, Bengals and Chargers. If you can find a win in there, you’re a lot more creative than I am.
Dolphins -1.5 over RAMS: Quietly, the Dolphins sit at sixth place in DVOA. It looks like whichever two teams don’t win the AFC West between Oakland, Denver and Kansas City have the wild cards locked up, but if those teams cannibalize each other’s playoff chances, Miami can sneak in there.
Patriots -13 over 49ERS: We’re at the point in the season where it’s tenuous to write about why the 49ers are bad. Give credit to the coaching staff for keeping a few games close, like last week at Arizona or Week 4 against Dallas, but the quarterback matchup alone gives the Patriots an insurmountable edge in this game.
Eagles +6.5 over SEAHAWKS: Seattle is going to struggle against teams that can dominate the line of scrimmage. Cris Collinsworth destroyed Bill Simmons for this tweet, but Simmons' overall point was correct—the Seahawks look much better offensively against teams that can’t rush the passer. The Eagles—unlike New England—are a team that features numerous standout pass rushers. They rank second in adjusted sack rate while Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham both rank at the top-5 at their position by PFF grading (Graham ranks first among edge rushers). It won’t be easy for Philly to score either—facing Seattle on the road isn’t the best situation for Carson Wentz—but if they can play good defense then they should at least cover.
REDSKINS -2.5 over Packers: I don’t feel great about this game, but Green Bay’s only win since Week 5 was against the Bears. Things look a little better against the spread (they covered in Week 8 against Atlanta), but their defense is struggling and I have no faith in Mike McCarthy’s offense to win games on its own, despite the greatness of Aaron Rodgers.
Raiders -5.5 over Texans (N): Normally I’d be wary of picking Oakland against a good defense with a spread this big, but their offensive line played so well against the Broncos that any worries about Houston’s pass rush have been put to bed. It will be fun to see A.J. Bouye work against Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, but that may be the only matchup that falls in Houston’s favor on the defensive side of the ball[2]. As for the other side of the ball, Brock Osweiler is so bad that the Texans may not even be able to move the ball against one of the worst defensive units in the league.
Last Week: 9-5-0
Season: 81-63-3
All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted
[1] He played just six games in 2010
[2] If Whitney Mercilus goes up against Austin Howard for most of the game, then that’s a second.
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