If you’ve ever stopped to wonder why we as a collective population spend so much of our time, energy and wherewithal on stupid little games—watching men on a field hit each other, a ball or throw that ball through a hoop—today is your answer. Baseball—the oldest professional sporting institution in the country—was invented during the Civil War, acting as somewhat of a uniting factor between Union and Confederate soldiers, an escape from the horrors of the battlefield and the sharp divides of geography. Now, once again, sports will take up its role as an escape from reality.
As odd as it feels to write, or even to think about football right now, every second we spend on a matter as trivial as the Super Bowl is a second we spend on something other pessimism or disagreements. As stupid as it is to occupy our time rooting for logos, which mean nothing in reality, there is no time perhaps since 2001 during which that stupidity has been more necessary.
Let’s get on to the picks.
Week 10 Picks
Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.
RAVENS -10 over Browns: In this week’s edition of “Why are NFL ratings down?” the Cleveland Browns are on Thursday Night Football. As of this time, we are still wondering why NFL ratings are down.
Texans -1.5 over JAGUARS: Blake Bortles has melted down against worse defenses than Houston—he played like Jon Kitna against the Titans two weeks ago. If we are only counting unquestioned starters[1], Bortles may be the worst quarterback in football. The Jaguars cannot run the ball and they cannot play defense. They are nearing the point where it is irresponsible to pick them against most teams when the spread is less than 10 points.
Chiefs +3 over PANTHERS: There is a built-in bias against quarterbacks like Alex Smith that make the Chiefs a strong bet here. As uninspiring as their offense is, Kansas City can move the ball against a bad Panthers’ secondary. People are overreacting to Carolina’s last few games—remember that they can struggle in the trenches against teams like Kansas City and if their makeshift secondary does not hold up, it’s game over.
Broncos +2 over SAINTS: Not to be hyperbolic, but this line is flat-out wrong. Denver is a 2.5-point favorite on FiveThirtyEight and even that seems low. The Saints will not beat the Broncos in the trenches the way Oakland did last week, nor will a second straight bad defense play well against Denver. The public still has not caught on to the fact that Denver remains a Super Bowl contender and until it does, the Broncos are a strong bet every week.
JETS -2 over Rams: There is no reason for either team to start the quarterback they plan to start in this game. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Case Keenum have been completely awful and have tanked the playoff chances of their respective teams. The Jets may as well go with Bryce Petty and the Rams may as well go with Jared Goff, if for no other reason than to see if they can play. Also, I am changing my pick if either team makes that change.
Falcons over EAGLES (pick’em): With Wentz still hitting the rookie wall, it’s tough to see how the Eagles can win without stopping the best offense in the league by DVOA. As good as Philadelphia is defensively, they do not have anyone capable of covering Julio Jones. Unless they can pressure Matt Ryan with regularity—a tough ask against a strong Atlanta offensive line—the Eagles will fall victim to Atlanta for the second time in as many years.
REDSKINS -3 over Vikings: I’m going against my gut here, solely because I want to be sure that the Vikings are not collapsing before picking them in a game like this, where the line is suspiciously low and Minnesota is on the road.
Packers -2.5 over TITANS: The Titans currently rank 26th in defensive DVOA and 27th in pass defense DVOA. That is not a good formula for stopping Aaron Rodgers.
BUCCANEERS over Bears (pick’em): It is make-it-or-break-it time for Jameis Winston. The Bucs should be winning games like this with him at the helm without much trouble—the mere fact that this is a pick’em is a bad sign. However, Tampa should win this game. Winston is capable of throwing the ball against a team featuring De’Vante Bausby and Tracy Porter in the secondary and if Doug Martin returns, they can run the ball too. Whether or not their defense can hold up is another matter, but if they lose this, at home, then we have to begin to reevaluate Jameis Winston.
Dolphins +4 over CHARGERS: A small but notable portion of last night: San Diego’s stadium initiative failed to pass, meaning that, in all likelihood, they will move to Los Angeles. Whatever small home-field advantage they had before will evaporate as the team undertakes its death march toward the end of the season. That march starts this week.
CARDINALS -13.5 over 49ers: San Francisco is officially in Cleveland territory from a betting standpoint, meaning that it is not smart to put money on them unless the line is outrageous. This line is not outrageous given how badly Colin Kaepernick played in Arizona last year, not to mention how badly he played last week; therefore, it is not smart to put money on the 49ers.
Cowboys +2.5 over STEELERS: The Cowboys will score at will against a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 19th in DVOA. The quarterback question has been answered with Dallas ranking second in offensive DVOA and first in weighted offensive DVOA through nine weeks. And if you are about to tell me that the Steelers can play good run defense, you should know that by DVOA the Cowboys are significantly better at throwing the ball than running it. Normally, I would have qualms about their defense on the road in this type of game, but it looks like Pittsburgh rushed Ben Roethlisberger back a few weeks too soon. I plan on proceeding with caution until Roethlisberger looks like himself again.
PATRIOTS -7.5 over Seahawks: This line is too high, but I have said that twice about New England this year and both times, I was wrong. That was with Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett playing quarterback—this time it’s with Tom Brady. The lesson from those first two times: Do not underestimate New England. No matter what.
Bengals +2 over GIANTS: Maybe I’m sticking with the Bengals a few weeks too long, but I still have not seen a good reason as to why they are struggling—thus continue to believe that they will turn it around. I do not trust Janoris Jenkins to cover A.J. Green in the slightest and the Giants will not get bailed out by bad coaching on the other side and untimely interceptions for the second week in a row. Even if the opposing quarterback is Andy Dalton.
Last Week: 5-7-1
Season: 72-58-3
All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted
[1] Which is to say, eliminating Cody Kessler and Colin Kaepernick.
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