EthanSears.com

Week 13 Preview: Don't underestimate the Chiefs

Here’s a stat that may surprise you: according to FiveThirtyEight's Elo ratings, the Kansas City Chiefs have a 14 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl—tied with the Seattle Seahawks and behind only the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys. Make of that what you will—I don’t think the Chiefs’ Super Bowl chances are that high—but the number underscores the fact that no team this good has been so under the radar in recent memory.

It’s understandable why the public isn’t particularly interested in the Chiefs. I hate to sound like a curmudgeon at age 17, but without any enthralling fantasy football options on the team, there won’t be many people outside of Kansas City interested in watching them on a weekly basis. That’s fine, but as a result, the public has yet to catch on to just how good this team is.  Get into a conversation about the NFL and the Chiefs are often an afterthought at best. Tell someone they have a respectable chance at winning the whole thing and they’ll look at you as if you have three heads. Nevertheless, the Chiefs have as good a chance as anyone. Maybe not as high as 14 percent, but the 6.2 percent proposed by Football Outsiders—higher than all but five teams—is more than feasible.

Nobody likes to admit it, but Alex Smith and Andy Reid aren’t all that bad of a combination. Smith is the prototypical Dilfer Zone quarterback—he may not be the reason you’re winning, but he sure as hell won’t be an obstacle. Reid is frustrating late in games—he mismanages the clock and tries turning 2-minute drills into 10-hour marathons all too often—but his teams consistently play at or above expectations. With the right supporting cast, it’s not hard to see them winning games in the postseason and the Chiefs may have the right supporting cast.

Offensively, they can do just enough. Spencer Ware has kept the run game afloat by averaging 4.7 yards per carry and ranking inside the top-15 in DYAR and DVOA. The offensive line isn’t noticeably good, but all five players are average by PFF grading, meaning that none can be exploited by the likes of Von Miller in the way Marcus Cannon and Mike Remmers were last postseason. Travis Kelce is a unique, if underused threat. Defenses struggle to match up with him and the threat of a Gronk-like run up the seam is always there—it’s just a matter of when KC breaks it out. Tyreek Hill has turned into a dynamic playmaker in the screen game who picks up yardage after the catch as well as anyone in the league. He’s also spearheaded a special teams unit that ranks second in DVOA. (Don’t underestimate special teams in the playoffs. They were a big reason why Kansas City won against Houston in the wild card last season and the ability to maintain good field position is huge for a team like the Chiefs, especially on the road or in cold weather). Jeremy Maclin is also set to return soon—he’ll add the element this offense desperately lacks: a receiver who can consistently make plays downfield. It’s not the best offense in the league, but it can certainly supplement a defense that is among the top of its class.

With Justin Houston making a triumphant, resounding return over the past two weeks, the Chiefs’ pass rush is suddenly among the most fearsome in football. Dee Ford has piled up sacks—10 to be exact—with Chris Jones and Dontari Poe making positive contributions as well. Throw Houston into that mix and things are downright scary.

The inside linebacker position has been better than expected with Derrick Johnson posting an 82.8 PFF grade and Ramik Wilson ranking eighth at the position by PFF grading. The secondary can potentially be exploited—Phillip Gaines has been a frequent culprit—but Marcus Peters, Eric Berry and Ron Parker cover over the mistakes most weeks.

With sparingly few well-rounded teams this season, the time is ripe for Kansas City. Each potential opponent can be exploited in some way—New England via its lack of a pass rush, Oakland via its lack of a secondary, Denver via its offensive line and lack of a run game and so on—but outside of Gaines and potentially Kenneth Acker, there isn’t a glaring weakness for teams to go after when they play the Chiefs. If they can play to their potential defensively, this team is a Super Bowl contender, whether the public realizes it or not.

Week 13 Picks

 Vegas Insider’s consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Cowboys -3 over VIKINGS: Dallas’ defense will come back to bite them at some point, but it won’t be against a team that ranks 25^th in offensive DVOA and features a quarterback with an ALEX lower than Alex Smith himself. On the other side of the ball, I just don’t think any team can compete with the Cowboys’ offensive line. Quietly, one of the most important events of the year for them was La’El Collins getting hurt, which allowed Ron Leary to come back to the starting lineup at left guard. Over the first three games, Collins had a 42.1 PFF grade. Since Leary has started, he’s had an 81.9 PFF grade.

Broncos -4.5 over JAGUARS: This pick is contingent on Trevor Siemian playing—I would take Blake Bortles over Paxton Lynch if it came to that—but I don’t think there’s any way the Jaguars can compete with Denver if Siemian plays. Jacksonville should have one goal for the rest of the season: making a definitive choice as to whether or not Bortles can be their quarterback for the next 10 years. I can’t profess to know a lot about the quarterback class in the draft this year, but if the Jaguars are going to make a change, it should be sooner rather than later.

Chiefs +3.5 over FALCONS: After the top of this column, all I’ll say is that I will continue to take Kansas City as long as the public underestimates them against tough competition. 4  

PACKERS -6.5 over Texans: I’ve been spending way too much time playing with the New York Times’ playoff simulator and here’s what it looks like in the AFC South: if Houston can win three more games, it would take a minor miracle for them to miss the postseason. If they only win two, it has to be against Indy and Tennessee, otherwise things get dicey. Even in that scenario, however, the Titans would need to beat either Kansas City or Denver to get in, meaning that the favorite would be the Colts, who have a much easier schedule. If Houston can beat them next week, it virtually eliminates them and if they can beat Tennessee in Week 17, it virtually eliminates them. And, unfortunately, both of those seem possible.

Eagles -1 over BENGALS: What reason is there to pick the Bengals at this point? There’s nobody for Andy Dalton to throw the ball to, Jeremy Hill looked bad last week and is probably playing hurt, Vontaze Burfict might kill somebody on defense and Mike Nugent can’t make an extra point to save his life. I was optimistic about this team at the beginning of the year, but things have gone as badly as they possibly could have gone.

Lions +6 over SAINTS: Per Football Outsiders’ premium DVOA database, the Lions’ defensive DVOA over their past four games is 9.45 percent. That’s not good by any means—it would rank 29^th on the year—but it is nearly twice as good as the 18.4 percent mark they have over the year, which ranks 31^st. When you have a dynamic passing game as Detroit does, you don’t need much from the defense—especially in a shootout like this week’s game looks to be. Of course, the same logic applies to the Saints, but with this game being winnable for both sides, the six-point spread looks good for the underdog.    

49ers +1.5 over BEARS: One of many unfortunate things about Colin Kaepernick’s recent comments regarding Fidel Castro is that they’ve overshadowed a small resurgence in his play. The 49ers have lost their last four games, but Kaepernick has played well in each of them—particularly in the past three, all of which were winnable. Kaepernick is running the ball well; he’s making something out of a horrific receiving corps and keeping the Niners in games. Most importantly, he’s thrown just two interceptions in those four games. It won’t save San Francisco’s season—it might even ruin their shot at a better draft pick—but it is nice to see him playing well after it looked like his career was over a year ago.

PATRIOTS -13.5 over Rams: Jeff Fisher’s week has included alienating his franchise’s best player of all-time, losing his 163^rd game—which ranks second all-time (he’s only two losses away from tying Dan Reeves for the most)—and telling New England reporters about the importance of stopping Brandon Bolden and Danny Woodhead in this week’s game. Bolden has four carries this season and Woodhead plays for San Diego. At some point, we have to entertain the possibility that Jeff Fisher is pulling a Costanza and trying to lose his job.

RAVENS -3 over Dolphins: This is a stay-away of the highest order, but I went with Baltimore. They’re at home, they rank first in defensive DVOA and in a defensive game, being able to kick from anywhere inside the opposing 45-yard line with confidence can make a difference. That being said, nobody should bet on this game.

RAIDERS -3 over Bills: Outside of cold weather games, I’m not sure the Raiders' offense can be stopped. If they can get the #1 seed—a scenario I consider unlikely given that they still have to go on the road to Denver and Kansas City—Oakland is the biggest threat to New England in the AFC. As for this week, I don’t think Buffalo’s offense is good enough to keep up with the Raiders unless they can force a couple of turnovers defensively. The problem: Oakland has turned it over just nine times, the sixth-best mark in the league.

CHARGERS -3.5 over Buccaneers: Quietly, this is one of the most interesting games of the weekend. If Tampa Bay loses, they would need to win all three remaining divisional game—two against New Orleans and one against Carolina—to make the playoffs (assuming they lose against Dallas in two weeks). Despite that, I just don’t think they can get another top-notch defensive performance against Philip Rivers, who has quietly put together one of the better seasons in the league. Normally I love going against San Diego at home, but this has the makings of a game they should win—and cover—with the Bucs’ luck ready to run out.

Redskins +2.5 over CARDINALS: Carson Palmer ranks 25^th in DYAR, 24^th in DVOA and 23^rd in QBR. If the Cardinals go down by two scores early, they aren’t coming back. Rob Kelley is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and Kirk Cousins is on his way to 4,000 yards thanks to one of the best receiving corps in football[1]. In other words, the Redskins can get up by two scores.

Giants +6 over STEELERS: I picked the Steelers to miss the playoffs at the beginning of the year and still think it’s unlikely that they’re playing in January. It’s not just that the defense isn’t good enough (it isn’t), the offense has suffered more than anyone expected from losing Martavis Bryant. Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell are great, but it’s tough to be an incredible offensive team when you’re relying on two skill position players to do everything. Eli Rogers is interesting in the long-term, but he’s been too inconsistent to make a big difference this year. Against a team like New York that can win at the line of scrimmage, slow down the run and do a passable job covering Brown, it’s just too hard for Pittsburgh to move the ball.

SEAHAWKS -7 over Panthers: With Justin Britt likely back at center, Seattle’s offensive line can survive just enough at home for them to eke out a cover. Expect constant pressure on both quarterbacks, but with Michael Bennett expected to return for Seattle and Ryan Kalil—and backup center Gino Gradkowski—out for the Panthers, things could get ugly for Cam Newton and whatever run game Carolina has salvaged this season.

Colts -2 over JETS: The Jets may look appealing after last week, but remember that they’ve played the Patriots close ever since Rex Ryan became their head coach all the way back in 2009. This line is an overreaction to that—as long as Andrew Luck plays, this game will be a blowout.

 

Last Week: 7-8-1

Season: 96-76-5

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] Jamison Crowder is averaging 6.29 YAC per reception according to NFL GSIS. That’s not the highest among receivers—Golden Tate, Ty Montgomery, Adam Humphries, Cordarrelle Patterson and Randall Cobb all have more—but when you factor in that his average reception is caught 6.89 yards away from the line of scrimmage, it’s easily the most impressive. In light of this, can we make Crowder’s nickname “YAC God”?

Week 12 Preview: Thanksgiving Watchability Rankings

Welcome to the annual Thanksgiving Watchability Rankings. These rankings are based solely on how fun it is to watch a given team—win-loss record is not taken into account, though better teams are often more fun to watch, nor is any statistical factor. Let’s get right to it.

Tier 7: Avoid under all circumstances

32. Los Angeles Rams
33. San Francisco 49ers
34. New York Jets
35. Jacksonville Jaguars
36. Cleveland Browns
37. Chicago Bears
38. Houston Texans

If you’re watching one of these teams, strap in for a long game. Bad quarterbacks consume each of them, which offset any redeeming value they should have as a team. Take out the revolving door of misery at quarterback and the Browns, for example, are sort of fun. Terrelle Pryor does things, Isaiah Crowell is a good, physical running back and Hue Jackson is an inventive coach. But alas, Josh McCown and Cody Kessler will get the majority of snaps at quarterback this year, confining their offense to stagnation. There are similar situations for just about every team in this tier—it serves as a reminder that teams like Denver are the exception, not the rule. If you’re going to compete, quarterbacks are pretty damn important.

Tier 6: Competitive but boring

25. Indianapolis Colts
26. Green Bay Packers
27. Tennessee Titans
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
29. Miami Dolphins

Seeing the Colts and Packers here may surprise people, but both teams are sloppy, badly coached and lacking in any redeeming value outside of the quarterback position. In Indianapolis, Andrew Luck rarely has time to throw the ball and while Aaron Rodgers often has ample time, no Packers receiver can get open downfield. The Titans should be higher up, but they play such a primitive style that if the offense isn’t humming, it can be hard to sit through. Tampa and Miami are less interesting on paper—and have less upside in watchability—but things are more consistent in both places.

Tier 5: Meh

20. Cincinnati Bengals
21. Arizona Cardinals
22. Baltimore Ravens

None of these teams is particularly awe-inspiring, but each of them will give you a decent game to watch. The Bengals may slide in the wake of injuries to A.J. Green, their most dynamic player, and Giovani Bernard—I dropped them from 18 to 20 and it may have been too generous—but Tyler Eifert gets rolling, it’s mesmerizing football. The Cardinals and Ravens aren’t particularly fun offensively, but consistently play competitive games. Plus, who doesn’t love to watch Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Smith put the rest of the NFL to shame?

Tier 4: Sure, why not?

17. Detroit Lions
18. Minnesota Vikings
19. New York Giants
20. Philadelphia Eagles
21. Carolina Panthers
22. Washington Redskins

Other than Minnesota (and arguably Philly), every team in this tier is capable of moving the ball on offense and other than Carolina, every team in this tier is going to be playing meaningful games over the next month. I’m particularly optimistic about Washington’s watchability—Jay Gruden has quietly built up one of the best skill position groups in the league. There aren’t any superstars (though if Rob Kelley continues on his current pace, he will be one soon), but it’s impossible to defend Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon, Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson all at once. There’s just too much talent on the field—and Kirk Cousins often has his pick of where to throw.

Tier 4: Good defense, bad offense

11. Kansas City Chiefs
12. Buffalo Bills

Kansas City and Buffalo remind us every week that defense is fun too. Marcus Peters is the cornerback version of Barry Sanders—you’re getting either an awe-inspiring interception or a badly blown coverage with little room for moderation. They also got Justin Houston back last week to improve the pass rush, which had lagged a bit in his absence. The Bills have set the standard in terms of rushing the passer this season, leading the league in adjusted sack rate. Both teams have enough dynamism offensively to keep you entertained as well. It’s fun to watch LeSean McCoy and Spencer Ware run the ball. Alex Smith isn’t tossing many deep balls, but Tyrod Taylor can still drop one or two dimes per game, even without Sammy Watkins.

Tier 3: Good offense, bad defense

9. New Orleans Saints
10. Atlanta Falcons

The Saints are fifth in offensive DVOA and 24^th in defensive DVOA; Atlanta is second in offensive DVOA and 27^th in defensive DVOA. That doesn’t just mean fun offense, it means high-scoring games, like the Packers-Falcons game that ended 33-32 in Week 8—one of the better matchups this season. Watching Drew Brees and Matt Ryan work in the pocket is a treat—both operate efficiently and surgically. The Falcons have bigger names at the skill positions—Julio Jones does things that humans shouldn’t be capable of on a weekly basis—but the Saints have quietly put together a decent run game and turned unknowns like Michael Thomas into weapons at wide receiver.

Tier 2: Stop what you’re doing to watch

7. Denver Broncos
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
9. San Diego Chargers
10. Seattle Seahawks
11. New England Patriots

I don’t think the Steelers or Chargers are making the playoffs, but both have partaken in some of the best games this season. The Steelers-Cowboys game two weeks ago is on the shortlist for Game of the Year and when healthy, the Pittsburgh moves the ball like no other team. The Roethlisberger-Bell-Brown combination is lethel to most defenses—we haven’t gotten many instances this year of all three being 100 percent, but there will be more in the next month. In San Diego, Philip Rivers has cemented himself as arguably the most underrated players in football. And Rivers isn’t marching the Chargers downfield, they’re often imploding—San Diego has lost more heartbreakers this year than you can count. Denver isn’t the best offensive team in the league, but Von Miller’s ability on defense more than makes up for it. In New England and Seattle, you get high-quality football through and through. They are the two best teams in football—it’s always must-see when either comes across your television.

Tier 1: Dallas and Oakland

2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Oakland Raiders

Oakland gets the top spot because they play more close games—they even made the Texans palatable on Monday night—but both of these teams are offensive machines. Dallas can put Ezekiel Elliott behind their offensive line and guarantee fireworks on any drive while Derek Carr can rip it to Oakland’s All-Star cast of wideouts and do the same. Forget about measuring these teams against the rest of football—watching these two offenses at work is one of the most enjoyable experiences you’ll have this year.

On to the picks.

Week 12 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Vikings +1.5 over LIONS: The central question to every Vikings game is whether their offensive line can function. The Lions rank 18^th in adjusted sack rate and 24^th in adjusted line yards, but Kerry Hyder is their only starting lineman with a PFF grade above 51.3. I’m not as worried about Minnesota being on the road since Ford Field is indoors and it’s a short week, which means all conventional wisdom can be thrown out the window. As long Minnesota’s line holds up, they should win this game outright.

COWBOYS -7 over Redskins: I thought Baltimore was the perfect foil for Dallas last week and for the first half, I was right. Then the Cowboys essentially moved the ball at will in the second half and I realized that it’s almost impossible to stop this team from moving the ball for an entire game. I don’t think the Redskins can win a shootout—it’s an especially short turnaround for them after playing on Sunday night and Dallas is good enough defensively to prevent the big plays that Washington thrived on against Green Bay.

Steelers -9 over COLTS: The Colts rank 31^st in defensive DVOA and Scott Tolzien is playing quarterback for them. There is no reason this line shouldn’t be at least 13.5 points[1].

Chargers -1.5 over TEXANS: Brock Osweiler currently ranks dead last among qualified quarterbacks with -448 DYAR. Second worst is Ryan Fitzpatrick with -360 DYAR. In short, don’t put money on Brock Osweiler.

Titans -5 over BEARS: Matt Barkley’s career stats: 36/65, 381 yards, 0 TDs, 6 INTs, 1.12 adjusted net yards per attempt. If you thought the quality of the quarterback position was bad, this will not be a fun week for you.

BILLS -7.5 over Jaguars: Jacksonville is 23^rd in run defense DVOA and 32^nd in power success. Now they have to go to Buffalo—where the high temperature will be 42 degrees according to AccuWeather—and stop the best rushing attack in the league by DVOA. For once, Blake Bortles won’t be the biggest reason for a Jacksonville loss.

Bengals +4 over RAVENS: The Bengals have won just one game since Week 5 and I don’t expect that this will be the second. However, this line seems like a bit of an overreaction to A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard being injured. Baltimore is a bad offensive team—even against a mediocre Bengals defense, they’ll struggle to move the ball. In a low-scoring game, I like the underdog.

FALCONS -4 over Cardinals: I’m not going to try to explain this phenomena, but the Cardinals are consistently awful on the East Coast. They haven’t won a game in the Eastern time zone since Week 8 of last season—against the Browns. With Carson Palmer finding it impossible to replicate his MVP-caliber 2015, I don’t love Arizona in this matchup either way, but they just can’t play on the East Coast.

DOLPHINS -7.5 over 49ers: Over the past few weeks, Miami has convinced me that they’re at least a playoff contender. There’s trap game potential here, but this is still a must-win game if the Dolphins are to keep that status. If they lose, their playoff odds drop to 22 percent, per the NYT Upshot simulator, with games coming against Baltimore and Arizona that would turn into must-win contests.

Rams +7 over SAINTS: Jared Goff was, um, uninspiring last week, but that’s almost to be expected in his debut—especially when things have been so horribly mismanaged. He gets to face a bad defense this week—for all the credit New Orleans has gotten; they still rank 24^th in defensive DVOA—and the Rams can slow down the Saints enough to keep it close. They have arguably the best run defense in football and their secondary will hold up if Aaron Donald and co can pressure Drew Brees with some consistency.

Giants -7 over BROWNS: Watching Josh McCown is one of the most depressing experiences you can have as a football fan. The Browns have at least been feisty at times with Cody Kessler under center, but kicking off with McCown as your starter is like signing a declaration of war underneath a white flag. Here’s to Robert Griffin III returning soon.

Seahawks -6 over BUCCANEERS: The Seahawks have taken the top spot in DVOA and they are playing like the best team in football. Russell Wilson is healthy, the defense looks great (with Michael Bennett potentially returning this week) and the offensive line is playing at a semi-acceptable level. I can’t see Jameis Winston keeping it close against this defense at full strength—the only way the Bucs cover is by consistently getting pressure, forcing Wilson to break the pocket and make plays with his legs, where the injury may still be taking a toll. However, Tampa is a mediocre 15^th in adjusted sack rate, so that seems unlikely.

Panthers +3 over RAIDERS: Oakland’s defense is going to be a liability for them in games like this. Carolina is coming off 10 days rest while the Raiders are on six days rest after playing on a Monday night in Mexico City. That doesn’t bode well for a team that ranks 29^th in defensive DVOA. Furthermore, the Raiders can’t match up with Greg Olsen and will struggle against a strong receiving corps. Sure, they may be able to keep up on the opposite end, but Carolina’s defense is significantly better—even without Luke Kuechly—and their secondary has put it together for the past few weeks.

Patriots -7.5 over JETS: Thank god they flexed this game out of prime time. Ryan Fitzpatrick on Sunday Night Football would have been an unmitigated disaster for all parties involved.

Chiefs +3 over BRONCOS: This game will come down to two things: defense and field position. The Broncos have the best defense in the league, but KC has the edge in field position. The Chiefs are also going to turn the ball over less—one of few positive outcomes resulting from Alex Smith being their quarterback. There is a clear advantage for Denver defensively, but the Chiefs are barely outside the top-10 in DVOA and Trevor Siemian isn’t exactly picking teams apart. This game is close to a toss-up, but I give it to the Chiefs by a hair.

Packers +4 over EAGLES: If the Wentz Wagon was in the Oregon Trail game, everyone on it would have contracted dysentery over the past few weeks—the rookie quarterback has thrown two touchdowns and four interceptions in the past three games with a paltry 58.59 completion percentage. Nobody’s dying yet—that wagon made it pretty far before people started getting sick—but prospects are grim.

 

Last Week: 8-5-1

Season: 89-68-4

All stats are from pro-football reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] Isn’t a Steelers/Giants/Patriots 6-point teaser the easiest bet of the year? How is the Pittsburgh line not higher solely to prevent people from betting their life savings on that tease?

Week 11 Preview: Eulogizing Tony Romo's career

One of my earliest football memories is walking into Sal’s Pizzeria in Mamaroneck as the 2007 NFC Divisional Round game between the Giants and Cowboys was nearing its conclusion. Dallas had the ball near the red zone with no timeouts left, needing a score to win. I stood by the counter watching as the Tony Romo threw two incomplete passes then, on 4^th and 11, was intercepted by R.W. McQuarters in the end zone.

My first memory of Tony Romo is the same as the memory of him that will endure among many as the years pass: choking away a game the Cowboys—7-point favorites in this specific matchup—should have won. And that’s unfortunate. Romo’s failures on the biggest stages—dropping the snap against Seattle, the McQuarters interception, two Week 17 losses that decided the division and even the playoff game in Green Bay two years ago—will forever overshadow the fact that for eight seasons—2006-2014[1]—he turned the Cowboys into a respectable team despite a supporting cast that was often forgettable at best. When finally given a good team to play with, Romo turned the Cowboys into a Super Bowl contender, turning in MVP-type numbers in 2014 and directing the best offense in the league. In 2015, when he could have followed up on that year, Romo instead suffered an injury. In 2016, when he could have redeemed himself yet again, another injury sunk his season and allowed him to be supplanted by Dak Prescott, likely ending any chance Romo had of winning a title as a starter.

After his press conference yesterday, I decided to pull up a comparison of Romo and Dan Marino, just for kicks. Marino played nearly 100 more games so the counting stats aren’t close except for sacks—Romo is just 28 behind Marino, an apt metaphor for his career. In terms of rate stats—completion percentage, passer rating, yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt—Romo nearly sweeps the entire board. Things are easier for quarterbacks now than in the ‘80s and ‘90s when Marino played, both from a coaching and rules perspective, so if you want to throw that comparison out then go ahead, but there are probably few quarterbacks with more similar careers. And I don’t know if Marino was seen as a choker the way Romo is, but if he played today I can guarantee that Miami’s 8-10 record with him in the postseason—along with the fact that they made it to the Divisional Round the year after he retired—would dominate the conversation around him, just as similar shortcomings will dominate the conversation around Romo for the rest of time.

On to the picks.

Week 11 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Saints +3.5 over PANTHERS: Carolina’s playoff chances are being vastly overstated right now. They are 3-6, in last place in the NFC South, with a bad secondary and offensive line. Their playoff chances don’t hinge on this game—their playoff chances are already dead. New Orleans isn’t particularly trustworthy in this game either—the 29^th ranked defense by DVOA on the road with a short week doesn’t inspire confidence, but the Saints can win a shootout, or at least keep it close enough to cover, if necessary.

Titans +3 over COLTS: They may not be able to overcome a 1.5-game deficit, but the Titans are the best team in the AFC South and it is not close. Marcus Mariota looks great, even with the Mike Mularkey-induced handicap he ranks 10^th in DYAR and 11^th in DVOA among quarterbacks. The Colts won’t be able to get pressure against a line that has quietly been one of the best in football and Tennessee will be able to move the ball at will against the 31^st-ranked defense by DVOA. The Titans should win this game outright, let alone against the spread.

LIONS -6.5 over Jaguars: Is there really much explanation needed after this? 

CHIEFS -7.5 over Buccaneers: According to FiveThirtyEight's Elo ratings, the Chiefs are the second-best team in football, with the third-best chance to win the Super Bowl. I would not go that far, but Kansas City is a lot better than people think—the defense has ranked top-10 in DVOA without Justin Houston, and even though the offense is far from inspiring, it is good enough to win on a given week. I do not trust Jameis Winston for a second on the road against a great defense—he has played well as of late, but the Bucs have had an easy schedule for the past few weeks. If his play continues this week and next week—against Seattle—then I’ll buy Jameis stock, but until then I’m holding off.

GIANTS -7.5 over Bears: After Jay Cutler’s recent performances and Mike Freeman reporting that most of the locker room has given up on their quarterback, I’m surprised that this line is still in the single digits. At this point, it’s pretty hard to fathom the Bears even competing on the road against a potential playoff team—even if the Giants have a history of blowing games like this one.

VIKINGS over Cardinals (pick’em): I would not touch this game with a 10-foot pole. The Vikings are still reeling after losing their fourth straight game and Arizona’s offense was horrific against the 49ers last week (along with every other opponent they have played this year). I think Minnesota can win a low-scoring game because their special teams are significantly better, but I do not have much faith in them after the past few weeks.

Bills +3 over BENGALS: The Bills can win this game outright. Cincinnati is vulnerable on the offensive line and Buffalo leads the league in adjusted sack rate already. Offensively, the Bills can move the ball with the run game—Cincy ranks 20^th in run defense DVOA—and Tyrod Taylor is good enough to throw deep against a Bengals’ defense that ranks 29^th in DVOA against deep balls. The Bengals are a better team on paper, but the matchup favors the Bills.

Ravens +7 over COWBOYS: If any team in the league can slow down the Cowboys’ offense, it’s the Baltimore Ravens. John Harbaugh’s squad has the best run defense in the league by DVOA and is just outside the top-5 in pass defense DVOA. Dallas’ offensive line may be good enough that it won’t matter, but if the Ravens can force Dak Prescott to operate without a run game—and potentially without a lead—it will take the rookie out of his comfort zone and could force a few mistakes out of him. If their offense isn’t playing at a high level, the Cowboys cannot depend on their defense—even against Joe Flacco and a lackluster Baltimore offense. Expect this one to be close—and be on the lookout for an upset.

Steelers -8 over BROWNS: Unless the Browns can pull off a major upset, they are not winning a game this year. Their remaining schedule consists of two games against the Steelers, a visit to Buffalo and home games against the Giants, Bengals and Chargers. If you can find a win in there, you’re a lot more creative than I am.

Dolphins -1.5 over RAMS: Quietly, the Dolphins sit at sixth place in DVOA. It looks like whichever two teams don’t win the AFC West between Oakland, Denver and Kansas City have the wild cards locked up, but if those teams cannibalize each other’s playoff chances, Miami can sneak in there.

Patriots -13 over 49ERS: We’re at the point in the season where it’s tenuous to write about why the 49ers are bad. Give credit to the coaching staff for keeping a few games close, like last week at Arizona or Week 4 against Dallas, but the quarterback matchup alone gives the Patriots an insurmountable edge in this game.

Eagles +6.5 over SEAHAWKS: Seattle is going to struggle against teams that can dominate the line of scrimmage. Cris Collinsworth destroyed Bill Simmons for this tweet, but Simmons' overall point was correct—the Seahawks look much better offensively against teams that can’t rush the passer. The Eagles—unlike New England—are a team that features numerous standout pass rushers. They rank second in adjusted sack rate while Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham both rank at the top-5 at their position by PFF grading (Graham ranks first among edge rushers). It won’t be easy for Philly to score either—facing Seattle on the road isn’t the best situation for Carson Wentz—but if they can play good defense then they should at least cover.

REDSKINS -2.5 over Packers: I don’t feel great about this game, but Green Bay’s only win since Week 5 was against the Bears. Things look a little better against the spread (they covered in Week 8 against Atlanta), but their defense is struggling and I have no faith in Mike McCarthy’s offense to win games on its own, despite the greatness of Aaron Rodgers.

Raiders -5.5 over Texans (N): Normally I’d be wary of picking Oakland against a good defense with a spread this big, but their offensive line played so well against the Broncos that any worries about Houston’s pass rush have been put to bed. It will be fun to see A.J. Bouye work against Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, but that may be the only matchup that falls in Houston’s favor on the defensive side of the ball[2]. As for the other side of the ball, Brock Osweiler is so bad that the Texans may not even be able to move the ball against one of the worst defensive units in the league.

 

Last Week: 9-5-0

Season: 81-63-3

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] He played just six games in 2010

[2] If Whitney Mercilus goes up against Austin Howard for most of the game, then that’s a second.

Week 10 Preview: Football is weird to think about right now, but it's a necessary distraction

If you’ve ever stopped to wonder why we as a collective population spend so much of our time, energy and wherewithal on stupid little games—watching men on a field hit each other, a ball or throw that ball through a hoop—today is your answer. Baseball—the oldest professional sporting institution in the country—was invented during the Civil War, acting as somewhat of a uniting factor between Union and Confederate soldiers, an escape from the horrors of the battlefield and the sharp divides of geography. Now, once again, sports will take up its role as an escape from reality.

As odd as it feels to write, or even to think about football right now, every second we spend on a matter as trivial as the Super Bowl is a second we spend on something other pessimism or disagreements. As stupid as it is to occupy our time rooting for logos, which mean nothing in reality, there is no time perhaps since 2001 during which that stupidity has been more necessary.

Let’s get on to the picks.

Week 10 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

RAVENS -10 over Browns: In this week’s edition of “Why are NFL ratings down?” the Cleveland Browns are on Thursday Night Football. As of this time, we are still wondering why NFL ratings are down.

Texans -1.5 over JAGUARS: Blake Bortles has melted down against worse defenses than Houston—he played like Jon Kitna against the Titans two weeks ago. If we are only counting unquestioned starters[1], Bortles may be the worst quarterback in football. The Jaguars cannot run the ball and they cannot play defense. They are nearing the point where it is irresponsible to pick them against most teams when the spread is less than 10 points.

Chiefs +3 over PANTHERS: There is a built-in bias against quarterbacks like Alex Smith that make the Chiefs a strong bet here. As uninspiring as their offense is, Kansas City can move the ball against a bad Panthers’ secondary. People are overreacting to Carolina’s last few games—remember that they can struggle in the trenches against teams like Kansas City and if their makeshift secondary does not hold up, it’s game over.

Broncos +2 over SAINTS: Not to be hyperbolic, but this line is flat-out wrong. Denver is a 2.5-point favorite on FiveThirtyEight and even that seems low. The Saints will not beat the Broncos in the trenches the way Oakland did last week, nor will a second straight bad defense play well against Denver. The public still has not caught on to the fact that Denver remains a Super Bowl contender and until it does, the Broncos are a strong bet every week.

JETS -2 over Rams:  There is no reason for either team to start the quarterback they plan to start in this game. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Case Keenum have been completely awful and have tanked the playoff chances of their respective teams. The Jets may as well go with Bryce Petty and the Rams may as well go with Jared Goff, if for no other reason than to see if they can play. Also, I am changing my pick if either team makes that change.

Falcons over EAGLES (pick’em): With Wentz still hitting the rookie wall, it’s tough to see how the Eagles can win without stopping the best offense in the league by DVOA. As good as Philadelphia is defensively, they do not have anyone capable of covering Julio Jones. Unless they can pressure Matt Ryan with regularity—a tough ask against a strong Atlanta offensive line—the Eagles will fall victim to Atlanta for the second time in as many years.

REDSKINS -3 over Vikings: I’m going against my gut here, solely because I want to be sure that the Vikings are not collapsing before picking them in a game like this, where the line is suspiciously low and Minnesota is on the road.

Packers -2.5 over TITANS: The Titans currently rank 26^th in defensive DVOA and 27^th in pass defense DVOA. That is not a good formula for stopping Aaron Rodgers.

BUCCANEERS over Bears (pick’em): It is make-it-or-break-it time for Jameis Winston. The Bucs should be winning games like this with him at the helm without much trouble—the mere fact that this is a pick’em is a bad sign. However, Tampa should win this game. Winston is capable of throwing the ball against a team featuring De’Vante Bausby and Tracy Porter in the secondary and if Doug Martin returns, they can run the ball too. Whether or not their defense can hold up is another matter, but if they lose this, at home, then we have to begin to reevaluate Jameis Winston.

Dolphins +4 over CHARGERS: A small but notable portion of last night: San Diego’s stadium initiative failed to pass, meaning that, in all likelihood, they will move to Los Angeles. Whatever small home-field advantage they had before will evaporate as the team undertakes its death march toward the end of the season. That march starts this week.

CARDINALS -13.5 over 49ers: San Francisco is officially in Cleveland territory from a betting standpoint, meaning that it is not smart to put money on them unless the line is outrageous. This line is not outrageous given how badly Colin Kaepernick played in Arizona last year, not to mention how badly he played last week; therefore, it is not smart to put money on the 49ers.

Cowboys +2.5 over STEELERS: The Cowboys will score at will against a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 19^th in DVOA. The quarterback question has been answered with Dallas ranking second in offensive DVOA and first in weighted offensive DVOA through nine weeks. And if you are about to tell me that the Steelers can play good run defense, you should know that by DVOA the Cowboys are significantly better at throwing the ball than running it. Normally, I would have qualms about their defense on the road in this type of game, but it looks like Pittsburgh rushed Ben Roethlisberger back a few weeks too soon. I plan on proceeding with caution until Roethlisberger looks like himself again.

PATRIOTS -7.5 over Seahawks: This line is too high, but I have said that twice about New England this year and both times, I was wrong. That was with Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett playing quarterback—this time it’s with Tom Brady. The lesson from those first two times: Do not underestimate New England. No matter what.

Bengals +2 over GIANTS: Maybe I’m sticking with the Bengals a few weeks too long, but I still have not seen a good reason as to why they are struggling—thus continue to believe that they will turn it around. I do not trust Janoris Jenkins to cover A.J. Green in the slightest and the Giants will not get bailed out by bad coaching on the other side and untimely interceptions for the second week in a row. Even if the opposing quarterback is Andy Dalton.

 

Last Week: 5-7-1

Season:  72-58-3

 

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] Which is to say, eliminating Cody Kessler and Colin Kaepernick.

Week 9 Preview: Coaches in Danger

We are roughly halfway through the NFL season and there has not been a single head coach fired. That is an upset in its own right, but if history is any indication, there are firings coming soon. This week, I decided to go over the most likely firings. Let’s get right to it.

Chuck Pagano: I picked Pagano before the season to be the first coach fired and I am standing by it, even as Gus Bradley implodes in Jacksonville. There were real expectations in Indianapolis, this year and last, and the Colts are languishing in third place in a division that may not feature a winning team this year. Injuries provided a valid excuse in 2015, but there are no such issues this year. Yet, the Colts are 3-5 heading into this week. Without a miracle win at Lambeau this week, I do not see how the Colts retain Pagano heading into their bye week.

Gus Bradley: There are no excuses left for Bradley, whose career record sits at 14-41 after four years—2016 being the first with expectations. Firing offensive coordinator Greg Olson may buy Bradley some time, but it’s not so much a matter of “if” but “when” Bradley is canned.

Mike McCoy: My assumption is that McCoy will be fired after the season once the Chargers begin to transition for their move to Los Angeles[1]. That would be a sensible time to make a coaching change, though if the Chargers think they can contend then I would advise a change now. McCoy is not an Andy Reid-type coach in close games—there is not one thing he is particularly bad at like clock management—but San Diego has constantly lost close games under him. Some of it—like botched snaps on field goals—does not stem from coaching, but there have been mistakes made leading up to those moments in droves. At a certain point, those mistakes pile up and a change must be made.

Jeff Fisher: Jeff Fisher will never be fired, but it does not change the fact that he is a horrific head coach. This has only been reinforced by the Rams standing by Case Keenum as if Jared Goff—the #1 overall pick in the draft that they traded a massive amount of draft capital in order to obtain—is JaMarcus Russell reincarnate.

Let’s get to the picks.

Week 9 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus odds are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Falcons -4 over BUCCANEERS: Without any of their top-3 running backs, Tampa Bay will have to depend on Jameis Winston to provide their offense this week. The problem is that Winston is mistake-prone; having thrown nine picks thus far, and is outside the top-20 in both DYAR and DVOA. The Bucs can win this in a shootout, but I do not trust their 22^nd-ranked offense in DVOA to keep it close.

CHIEFS -7.5 over Jaguars: I thought long and hard about picking Jacksonville here—it’s tempting with Nick Foles starting and serious trap game potential—but picking the Jaguars on the road is just stupid at this point. They may cover, but it is just irresponsible to pick Blake Bortles to cover on the road—even against Nick Foles.

Lions +6 over VIKINGS: The Vikings are in a free fall right now. I initially thought they could climb out of it this week—and they still may win—but Norv Turner resigning this morning is a big deal, even if Sam Bradford worked with Pat Shurmur in Philly. Detroit’s defense is awful, but their one area of competency is the pass rush—Kerry Hyder has come onto the scene this year with five sacks and both Ziggy Ansah and Haloti Ngata can be disruptive forces against a truly horrific Minnesota offensive line. In what should be a low-scoring game, the Lions can cover on the road.

Eagles +2.5 over GIANTS: Until the Giants’ offense really starts to click; they are not going to beat the best defensive team in the league by DVOA. New York has talent, but Eli Manning has struggled and Ben McAdoo’s system has been an unmitigated disaster this season. This is a must-win game for both teams, but the Eagles are simply a better team in every facet of the game.

Cowboys -7 over BROWNS: New England is not playing this week and I do not feel this pick needs much explanation, so I am going to use this space to talk about the Jamie Collins trade because I do not understand what the Patriots were thinking. I do not care if the Patriots were not going to resign him and I do not care if he was not playing quite as well as he normally does. Jamie Collins is a top-10 linebacker—arguably, a top-10 defensive player in general—and trading him makes the Patriots markedly worse on defense. For analysts who may or may not be friends with Bill Belichick (cough*Mike Lombardi*cough) to say Collins was playing badly and New England’s defense needed fixing is utterly ridiculous. He had a bad game against Buffalo and maybe he was freelancing—I do not know what plays Matt Patricia is calling—but acting like trading one of the best defensive players in the league “fixes” New England’s defense is flat-out stupid. The Patriots are top-10 in yardage and top-5 in points on defense. Those numbers paper over some issues, but the linebacker position is not one of them. Obviously, Bill Belichick is smarter than I am and knows what he is doing and the Patriots will probably win the Super Bowl regardless, but New England’s PR campaign against Collins is shameful.

DOLPHINS -3.5 over Jets: The Dolphins are 18^th in DVOA and playing at home after their two best wins in recent memory and a bye week. The Jets are 31^st in DVOA and playing on the road after they struggled to beat Cleveland. New York is also trotting out Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, someone whom the organization seems to have no faith in whatsoever (with good reason). If there is a reason to take the Jets this week, I have not found it.

Steelers +3 over RAVENS: According to reports today, it seems likely that Ben Roethlisberger will play this week in which case the Steelers should win outright and this line will probably move to a pick’em. If Roethlisberger does not play, I may change my pick but if this line is still three when this publishes, people should jump on it immediately.

49ERS +3.5 over Saints: New Orleans is coming off games in Kansas City and against Seattle. After this week, they play Denver and go to Carolina. This is a trap game and the Saints will fall victim.

Panthers -3 over RAMS: The Panthers are not a bad offensive team—they rank 14^th in offensive DVOA and Jonathan Stewart should play which means good things are to come. As long as Case Keenum is under center, the Rams are ill equipped to take advantage of Carolina’s secondary deficiencies. Without being able to throw the ball, it is tough to beat Carolina and the Rams cannot throw the ball.

PACKERS -7 over Colts: Aaron Rodgers had a 125.5 passer rating last week so I guess it turns out his career is not finished. With Green Bay’s offense back to normal—, which is to say that Rodgers is making up for all of Mike McCarthy’s flaws as a coach again—they will not have any trouble scoring against an awful Indy defense. On the other side of the ball, Green Bay can dominate at the line of scrimmage enough to prevent Andrew Luck from wreaking too much havoc—a formula good enough to cover.

Titans +5 over CHARGERS: This game intrigues me because I am still not sure what to make of the Titans. A win here would put them ½ games out in the AFC South and I think there is enough talent on the roster to win a bad division. Whether or not that talent can overcome Mike Mularkey’s coaching is another question, but this game could be an indicator. I do not know if they can win, but I think they keep it close against disaster-prone Chargers.

Broncos over RAIDERS (pick’em): The Raiders are going to struggle against good defenses and the Broncos’ unit is a hell of a lot better than good. Denver can move the ball against the Raiders’ defense—which ranks 28^th in DVOA—without much trouble and Oakland has penalty issues across the board. FiveThirtyEight has Denver as three-point favorite, an assessment that makes sense given that Denver is on the road.

Bills +7 over SEAHAWKS: Until Russell Wilson gets fully healthy; it is going to be tough for Seattle to manufacture offense. Their offensive line will not hold up well against a Bills team ranked second in adjusted sack rate and if Wilson is not able to create things out of the blue, the Seahawks will not be able to move the ball. They can still win in a low-scoring game, but the Bills should cover regardless.

 

Last Week: 6-7-0

Season: 67-51-2

 

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] Yes, I am also assuming that San Diego votes not to fund the team’s stadium next week and the team moves.