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Week 8 Preview: The fatal flaws of title contenders

The NFL is not in a good place right now. Last week was one of the worst weeks you can imagine when it comes to the standard of play. Matt Barkley played quarterback for the Bears on Thursday night. The Eagles and Vikings had a turnover-off, Case Keenum played like Case Keenum, Kevin Hogan became the sixth player to throw a pass for the Browns, Landry Jones started for the Steelers, Brock Osweiler threw for 131 yards and it felt like less. The Seahawks and Cardinals had a 6-6 tie in prime time!

This isn’t the Browns or 49ers being bad, this is everyone being bad. There’s no such thing as a perfect team, but we’ve never seen a situation where no team looks great or even very good, with the possible exception of New England. Everyone has a flaw that, in a normal year, may sink them come January. This week, I decided to look at what that flaw is for the best five teams in football by DVOA. Let’s jump right into it.

Philadelphia Eagles: Wide receiver, right tackle

As of right now, no Eagles receiver ranks above 61^st in DYAR and Jordan Matthews is the only one with over 200 receiving yards. With Lane Johnson suspended, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, whose name I think I spelled correctly, is the starting right tackle. This has already shown to be a problem as Vaitai has a 39.9 PFF grade and has been a major issue in pass protection. Both of these issues get worse when you consider that they have a rookie quarterback. As good as Carson Wentz has been, it’s a bad thing when your rookie quarterback is depended on to make his receivers better instead of the other way around and an even worse thing when said quarterback is facing pressure with regularity.

Seattle Seahawks: Offensive line

Four out of five Seattle starters on the offensive line are rated as “poor” by PFF grading. They’re 28^th in adjusted line yards and 13^th in adjusted sack rate. The latter number looks good before you realize that Russell Wilson is the best quarterback in the league when it comes to avoiding pressure. Seattle has survived with a bad offensive line before, but that was with Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Rawls—two steamrollers in human form—at running back and a healthy Wilson under center. The Seahawks have neither of those luxuries this year, at least until Rawls returns from injury, and its showing. Their offense has lagged in recent weeks thanks to a slew of holding penalties and constant pressure. It’s bordering on disaster (though I’m sure some will tout Tom Cable, their offensive line coach, as a strong head coaching candidate once January comes around).

Denver Broncos: Quarterback

It has been well documented that I do not believe the Broncos have downgraded at quarterback by replacing Peyton Manning with Trevor Siemian. That being said, Siemian has a significantly lower margin for error. Denver won the Super Bowl last season by scooting by in close games, not by dominating their opponents, inferior or otherwise. No team can win that many close games for two years in a row and it’s already shown this year in the Broncos’ loss to San Diego. That makes the quarterback position an issue—even though Siemian has been fine thus far, Denver is still depending on defense to win games, an issue for most teams no matter how good their defense may be.

Minnesota Vikings: Offensive line

The Vikings came into the season with the worst starting tackles in football. Then, Matt Kalil got hurt, which meant T.J. Clemmings had to slide over to left tackle. To call Clemmings an unmitigated disaster would be the understatement of the century. He has a 26.9 PFF grade, the worst among qualified players at tackle by nearly ten points. Jeremiah Sirles has been better at right tackle, but only default as his 56.9 PFF grade looks good in comparison while Brandon Fusco and Alex Boone have been underwhelming on the interior. All in all, Minnesota is dead last in adjusted line yards and stuff rate, rendering their run game useless at best.

Dallas Cowboys: Pass rush

Dallas ranks 22^nd in pass defense DVOA and the issue mostly stems from an inability to get pressure. Tyrone Crawford, Maliek Collins and Jack Crawford—three of the team’s four starting defensive linemen—have PFF grades below 44. While players such as David Irving—who forced three fumbles and had a sack in Week 6 against Green Bay—have picked up the load, the Cowboys don’t have anyone who can be a disruptor on a regular basis. Without being able to consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks, things can, and will, get a lot tougher defensively.

Week 8 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Jaguars +3.5 over TITANS: Laying points with Mike Mularkey is one of the dumbest things you can do. I did it last week and lost—I will not do it again, even against Blake Bortles and Gus Bradley. This game being on prime time is a travesty, but not as much as the fact that this game somehow has playoff implications. The AFC South is flaming garbage personified and the reward for winning it will be a loss worse than the 30-0 defeat Houston suffered last year in January.

Bengals -3 over Redskins (N): The Bengals are under .500, but their losses are against Pittsburgh, Denver, Dallas and New England—four potential Super Bowl contenders. Against Washington—a team that is decidedly not a Super Bowl contender—Cincinnati will be just fine. They can throw the ball against a thin Redskins secondary and I don’t buy Washington’s run game being as good as it has been the past few weeks. The Bengals can, and will, get back on the playoff track with a win in London[1]

Lions +2.5 over TEXANS: Brock Osweiler is currently 32^nd in DYAR and DVOA. Out of 32. And yes, that includes Cody Kessler. If you include players who don’t qualify, Osweiler is still dead last in DYAR, ranking behind the likes of Matt Barkley and Kevin Hogan. If there’s anyone who will fail to take advantage of the worst defense in the league by DVOA, it’s him and if there’s anyone who shouldn’t be favored at home against a remotely competent team, it’s also him.

Seahawks -2.5 over SAINTS: This line is an overreaction to the 6-6 monstrosity the Seahawks engaged in last week. Their offense is clearly an issue with Russell Wilson playing hurt, but they can still score against the Saints—who rank 28^th in pass defense DVOA. FiveThirtyEight has Seattle as six-point favorites, a far cry from the 2.5 you can get in Vegas, so jump on this while you can.

Patriots -6.5 over BILLS: Outside of the first game against the Bills—in which Jacoby Brissett played quarterback—the Patriots may not lose straight-up or against the spread all year. I won’t be picking against them until one or both of those things happen.

Jets -3.5 over BROWNS: If Cody Kessler plays, I may change my pick, but right now it looks like Kevin Hogan will play quarterback for the Browns which means that you can bet against Kevin Hogan and lay less than a touchdown. For the sake of clarity, I’ll repeat that: you can bet against Kevin Hogan and lay less than a touchdown.

Raiders +1 over BUCCANEERS: I don’t know if this is a West Coast team playing on the East Coast or what, but this is the second week in a row that the Raiders have been underdogs against a team that is decidedly worse. If that is a result of Oakland having to travel, I will point out that the Raiders have played four games that started at 10:05 PT and won all of them. Why they are still underdogs in this game, after winning four in a row on the road, I have no idea.

Chiefs -2.5 over COLTS: Indy’s offensive line was good for stretches last week and we got to see what this offense would look like if Ryan Grigson and Chuck Pagano weren’t completely incompetent. Unfortunately, Ryan Grigson and Chuck Pagano are completely incompetent and the Chiefs have a solid defense, even without Justin Houston. The Colts just aren’t going to move the ball well against a defense ranked 12^th in DVOA and the Chiefs are going to run the ball against a 32^nd ranked run defense by DVOA. They can also throw the ball against an incompetent secondary—particularly given that Indy is 32^nd in DVOA against tight ends. This will be a big game for Travis Kelce and a potential blowout win for Kansas City. 

PANTHERS -3 over Cardinals: The Cardinals have a history of underperforming in games they should win—particularly those on the East Coast. I don’t love this line, but Carolina is better than their record and I’m not sure Carson Palmer can take advantage of the holes in their secondary.

BRONCOS -5.5 over Chargers: The Chargers’ offensive line is 28^th in adjusted sack rate and 26^th in adjusted line yards. Denver got back on track Monday night and their offense looked good against a solid Houston defense. I’m willing to accept their previous loss against San Diego as a result of Paxton Lynch and take them this week in a game they should win.

FALCONS -3 over Packers: The Falcons can score against any defense in the league. Unless Matt Ryan reverts to last year’s form, there are no holes in this unit. The only question is their defense, which I’m not worried about against a badly designed Green Bay offense.

COWBOYS -4.5 over Eagles: Carson Wentz is hitting the rookie wall after his worst game (by far) last week, which consisted of two interceptions and a 52.4 passer rating—over 25 points lower any other game[2]. If Dak Prescott hits the same wall, I don’t think it will have the same effect on the Cowboys’ offense because they rely so much on running the ball. My only hesitation with this game is that there’s a real chance for a backdoor cover, but that’s a chance worth taking given that Dallas is a flatly better football team.

Vikings -5.5 over BEARS: We need to either kill Monday Night Football as an entity or start giving it better games because the Bears being in prime time (again) is flat-out unacceptable.

 

Last Week: 10-5-0

Season: 61-44-2

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] How big of an upset is it that between Chuck Pagano, Gus Bradley and Jeff Fisher, none were fired this season after a London game? The odds on that had to be at least 100/1.

[2] His previous low was two weeks ago against Washington.

Last-minute NBA prop bets

The NBA season always seems to creep up on you. With the NFL in full-swing and MLB postseason happening, it’s easy to forget that basketball is going to be back in [checks watch] three hours. The League Pass alerts, Spursgasms, Stephen Curry heat checks, Russell Westbrook drives and DeMarcus Cousins dirty looks toward teammates are just three hours away from being in our lives again. If you’re looking for some last minute gambling tips, here is your guide.

All odds are from Bovada unless otherwise noted.

Charlotte Hornets to win Southeast Division (+350)

Charlotte Hornets over 42.5 wins (-105)

Charlotte Hornets to make playoffs (-140)

These odds may not reflect it, but the Hornets are good. Last season, Charlotte won 48 games and finished in a three-way tie for first place in the Southeast[1] despite Michael Kidd-Gilchrist playing just seven games.

There are some concerns: Marvin Williams may not shoot 40.2 percent from 3 again, Courtney Lee and Jeremy Lin are gone, Nicolas Batum had a career-year and probably won’t match it—but this is still a playoff team by a fair margin. Steve Clifford is one of the most underrated coaches in the league, Kemba Walker is turning into a real crunch-time scorer and Batum is still a solid 3 and D player at his worst. Even if his 3-point percentage declines by five or six points, Marvin Williams is still a viable stretch four who can negate the damage Kidd-Gilchrist does to their spacing.

Additionally, the Southeast has gotten markedly worse. Unless Justise Winslow turns into a two-way All-Star, the Heat are out of the playoff picture. The Hawks effectively traded Al Horford for Dwight Howard—a move that helps their rebounding at the cost of their spacing, defense and chemistry. John Wall and Bradley Beal are at each other’s throats in Washington—a chemistry issue for a team that already has to deal with Markieff Morris—not to mention the fact that the Wizards are depending on a strategy that won them one playoff series two years ago. Frank Vogel’s Magic are intriguing, but they’re still at least a year away.

Chicago Bulls under 38.5 wins (+115)

Chicago Bulls not to make playoffs (Even)

The Bulls brought in Fred Hoiberg to run a pace-and-space system to better fit today’s NBA. One year later, they’re starting Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Mirotic and Robin Lopez—a five-man crew with a grand total of one 3-point shooter, assuming if you count Mirotic, who has shot 35.5 percent from beyond the arc in his career, as a 3-point shooter. The building of this roster makes absolutely no sense unless Gar Forman’s goal was to sell jerseys. You can already see the chemistry issues building as Wade, Butler and Rondo compete for touches, not to mention the latter’s incessant stat-padding and the potential conflicts with Hoiberg given the impossible task he has in front of him and the poor job he last season.

New York Knicks under 38.5 wins (+115)

Somehow, people haven’t come to grips with the fact that Derrick Rose is not a starting-caliber point guard. The evidence is in plain sight—Rose was 68^th among point guards in Real Plus-Minus last season, per ESPN.com. That’s lower than Joe Young, Tyler Ennis, Marcelo Huertas and Ray McCallum. Joakim Noah isn’t anywhere near the player he was in 2013-14 and that’s assuming he stays healthy. Carmelo Anthony will mail it in on the defensive end and, frankly, isn’t a good enough player on the offensive end to carry the load at age 32. Kristaps Porzingis is a great player, but he’s surrounded by older players who will demand touches.  As soon as the Knicks start losing, there will be conflict between Jeff Hornacek and Phil Jackson, giving the season that trademarked sense of hopelessness.

Denver Nuggets over 37 wins (-120)

This is based mostly on projection systems being smarter than me—FiveThirtyEight and Kevin Pelton's SCHOENE both have the Nuggets at 40 wins and I can see the upside. Nikola Jokic is as good a passer as a big man can be and on the cusp of becoming a legitimate star. If Denver doesn’t trade Danilo Gallinari, he’ll give them a go-to guy on the offensive end and Wilson Chandler is returning from injury. Kenneth Faried will either be a scorer off the bench or draw assets as trade-bait and Will Barton would have been a 6^th Man of the Year candidate had the team drawn more national attention. The Nuggets may not make the playoffs, but they can compete.

Memphis Grizzlies not to make playoffs (+150)

The bottom of the West is so cluttered that no team should have odds this high to miss the playoffs. On top of that, the Grizzlies have more injury risk than any of these teams and a lack of depth that will rear its head if Marc Gasol or Mike Conley goes down again. Zach Randolph is going to drop off one of these years, even if David Fizdale has him come off the bench, and FiveThirtyEight has Memphis at just 35 wins, well out of contention for the 8-seed. At +150, the odds are just too good to pass up.

Blake Griffin to win MVP (+3300)

MVP seems like the most interesting bet this year, but I’m surprised there haven’t been more arguments for Griffin. Let’s assume that Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are out of the running because no media member will want to vote for a Warrior. Let’s also assume that LeBron starts going the Tim Duncan route and plays between 60 and 65 games, taking himself out of contention for the award. Russell Westbrook is currently the odds-on favorite, but there are legitimate questions about his efficiency with the offense entirely in his hands. The counting stats will undoubtedly be great, but if his usage rate climbs above 35 percent, he may get treated like Kobe Bryant did in 2006 with a similarly loaded field. There’s also a chance Oklahoma City doesn’t make the playoffs, in which case there’s a pretty low chance the media votes for him. If the Pelicans don’t make it, they won’t vote for Anthony Davis either.

Kawhi Leonard and James Harden are both interesting, but Leonard lacks the offensive flash necessary to ever be heralded as the best in the league while Harden will get docked for his defense—especially given that the Rockets may be one of the worst defensive teams in the league even without him. As long as we’re not veering off into Karl-Anthony Towns’ territory, that leaves only a few viable options: Paul George (+2200), Kyrie Irving (+3300), Chris Paul (+3300), Damien Lillard (+3300) and Griffin.

George is intriguing—he could hypothetically carry Indiana to 50 wins—but the way Larry Bird has built that team reminds me too much of the Bulls. The Pacers may get to the playoffs, but they won’t be a juggernaut, nor will George carry them emphatically enough to grab attention. Even if LeBron James plays just 60 games, that’s still enough to take the credit out of Kyrie Irving’s hands and in Portland, Lillard’s defense is a few Vine-able plays away from Harden territory.

Chris Paul is 31—old enough to hand the offensive reigns to Griffin for the majority of the regular season. If Blake (and everyone else) can stay healthy, the Clippers are capable of winning 60 games. They’ve fallen off the radar, but don’t forget that they won 53 last year while being riddled with injuries. At his best, Griffin is a top-10 player—an offensive threat inside with ability to step out past the elbows that can switch on the defensive end and carry a team in crucial playoff games. If Doc Rivers takes the plunge and slides him over to the five for stretches, Griffin will look like Draymond Green with a better offensive game and the Clippers will become the darling of the media—which will strive to avoid making the Warriors the topic of discussion for an entire season.

Rudy Gay to be traded during the regular season (-175)

Gay essentially demanded a trade without explicitly demanding a trade and risking a fine. Even for the ever-incompetent Sacramento front office[2], it’s a no-brainer to get some sort of asset for Gay while they can. This is as close to a lock as anything can be.

Rick Carlisle to win Coach of the Year (+3500)[3]

I don’t have Dallas making the playoffs, but the West could be congested enough that they slip into the postseason on the backs of Dirk Nowitzki, Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews. As crazy as that sounds, it’s not much more insane than the Mavs winning 42 games last season when, before the season, it seemed likely they would tank to keep a top-7 protected pick dealt to Boston in the disastrous Rajon Rondo trade. Carlisle has won this award before, but it was in 2001-02—his rookie year as a head coach—when he took the Pistons to 50 wins and the #2 seed. It’s been too long since Carlisle was given some appreciation—the fact that he’s 35/1 for this award reflects that more than anything. Dallas is primed to beat expectations and if they do, Carlisle will be given the credit (rightly so).

All stats are from basketball-reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] They were the six seed for the postseason due to tiebreakers as four different teams in the East finished 48-34 last season

[2] Vivek Ranadive saying that he didn't want to draft Nik Stauskas when there is video of him advocating for Stauskas in Sacramento’s draft room was my favorite part of the offseason.

[3] This bet is from Sportsbook.ag as Bovada does not offer odds on Coach of the Year

Week 7 Preview: Taking stock of quarterback controversies

It’s only been six weeks and quarterback controversies are in our midst. As of today, four teams have legitimate dilemmas as to who they’ll start for their next game. For this week’s column, I’m making the case for each quarterback and coming to a conclusion as to who should start. Let’s get right into it.

Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott: It’s pretty tough to make a good case against Prescott. Not only is the Cowboys’ offense first in DVOA, it’s third in passing DVOA. Yes, Prescott’s young and could regress, but sitting him now would be like leaving a card table after a royal flush. If things falter, you can always turn back to Romo, but there isn’t any evidence that they will.

Tony Romo: It’s easy to forget that the last time Tony Romo was healthy for an extended period of time, he was an MVP candidate. He led the league in completion percentage; touchdown percentage, yards per passing attempt, passer rating and QBR in 2014. The Cowboys may have been in the NFC Championship Game if not for a questionable call in Divisional Round game against Green Bay. You know what you’re getting in Romo—as long as he stays healthy, the Cowboys will be in the mix.

Verdict: Let it ride and keep Dak Prescott.

New York Jets

Ryan Fitzpatrick: Yes, Fitzpatrick is playing terribly now, but let’s not forget that the Jets were a near-playoff team last season with him at the helm. If they have even a slight chance of getting back into contention this season, they need keep Fitzpatrick in and hope things get fixed.

Geno Smith: Remember that one game against Atlanta in Week 5 of 2013? That was a pretty good game, right? Maybe he can play like that again.

Other: The Jets are 1-5; they might as well try out one of their two rookie quarterbacks. They spent a 4^th round pick on Bryce Petty last year and a 2^nd round pick on Christian Hackenberg this year. It’s unlikely that either one turns into much, but the Jets might as well see what they have. If nothing else, at least they can go into the offseason knowing which quarterback of the four on their roster will be cut before next season.

Verdict: Other, if only because chaos is fun.

San Francisco 49ers

Blaine Gabbert: Even if the ceiling is lower for Gabbert, the floor is much higher. At minimum, the 49ers will have a functional offense most of the time. If you haven’t watched the 49ers this year, I promise that’s better than it sounds.

Colin Kaepernick: Things are much more interesting with Kaepernick in. Sure, he could (and probably will) implode, but he at least has some arm strength and can be a threat running the ball. Why not roll the dice?

Verdict: Kaepernick. At least they may have a chance to win a game or two.

Chicago Bears

Jay Cutler: As bad as he’s played this year, there’s a higher ceiling for Cutler. The Bears were a good offense last season, ranking 10^th in DVOA. Hoyer’s Texans were 24^th with a supporting cast that was arguably better than Chicago’s. Both will lose some games for you, but Cutler has the ability to win them.

Brian Hoyer: Since Hoyer has seen significant snaps, starting in Week 3, Chicago’s offensive DVOA has gotten significantly better. Per Football Outsiders’ premium data, in the two games prior the Bears were over 20 percent below average offensively and in the four games Hoyer has started they have not been worse than four percent below average. Historically, Cutler has been the better quarterback, but today it’s clear that Hoyer is significantly better.

Verdict: Hoyer. Their offense doesn’t function well with either, but it’s clearly improved with Hoyer. Also, if Cutler sits then we get shots of him pouting on the bench during every game.

Week 7 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

PACKERS -7.5 over Bears: This line is an overreaction to the Packers getting embarrassed on what was essentially a nationally televised game. While Aaron Rodgers was having his worst game in recent memory, the Bears melted down and lost to the Jaguars at home—a markedly worse loss than Green Bay’s. If you don’t get carried away with Rodgers’ struggles—he’s still Aaron Rodgers after all—and remember that the Bears are one of the worst teams in football by any objective measure, this isn’t that hard of a pick.

Giants -3 over Rams (N): Lost in Odell Beckham’s resurgence was the Giants’ defensive line looking great at times against Baltimore. If they can dominate the line of scrimmage on a weekly basis, New York will go places. The Rams got scored on at will against Detroit last week and we could easily see the same thing happen again if the Giants’ offense can continue playing well. Los Angeles has weaknesses across the board—a lack of a passing game and a flailing secondary to be exact—that the Giants can and will exploit.

Vikings -2.5 over EAGLES: Since 2015, the Vikings are 19-3-0 against the spread, the best record in the league by nearly 20 percentage points, per Team Rankings. Yet somehow, the Vikings are favored by less than a field goal against an Eagles team that played well above its level for the first three weeks of the season. I don’t understand why Minnesota isn’t being given more respect, but gamblers should take advantage of it while they can.

Saints +6.5 over CHIEFS: Per Team Rankings, the Saints are undefeated this year against the spread as an underdog and it’s easy to see why. Four of their five games have been decided by three points or less, a product of a great offense combined with a horrific defense. This seems like another one of those games, so take the points.

Redskins +1.5 over LIONS: I watched the Rams-Lions game last night and temporarily convinced myself that Case Keenum was a decent NFL quarterback. The Lions’ defense was so horrific it didn’t just make Case Keenum look competent, it made him look good. They are dead last in defensive DVOA, dead last in defensive DAVE, 31^st in pass defense DVOA and 26^th in run defense DVOA. If Case Keenum had an 84.38 completion percentage against them, imagine what Kirk Cousins is going to do.

BENGALS -9.5 over Browns: Rule 1: Don’t overthink. Picking the Browns on the road against a team contending for the playoffs is the definition of overthinking.

DOLPHINS +3 over Bills: I just feel that the Bills bandwagon is going to come to a halt at some point. At some point, they may prove me wrong, but it could be tough for them to run the ball this week against a Dolphins front featuring Ndamukong Suh. Miami has struggled in run defense thus far, but they rank eighth in power success and 12^th in stuff rate. Most of their troubles have come on the second level, but if they can win at the line of scrimmage that won’t make as much of a difference.

Raiders +1 over JAGUARS: The first time I saw this line, I thought it was a typo. Oakland is coming off a bad game, but they can move the ball in this matchup. Blake Bortles has been an utter disappointment—the single biggest reason the Jaguars have failed so miserably this year—and I can’t see them taking much advantage of Oakland’s defense. Jacksonville still has a road to winning the division because the AFC South is so horrific, but I can’t say I’m optimistic.

TITANS -2.5 over Colts: Normally, I would shy away from taking the Titans as favorites because of Mike Mularkey, but Chuck Pagano is nearly as bad. It’s astounding to me that neither he nor Ryan Grigson has been fired—the Colts are wasting a potential Hall of Fame quarterback’s prime years. At minimum, the Titans can run the ball with consistency and play acceptable defense. That alone may make them the best team in the AFC South.

Ravens +1 over JETS: This may be your last chance to bet against Geno Smith. Don’t let it slip by[1].

FALCONS -6.5 over Chargers: I’m buying Falcons stock. There are some defensive issues, but Atlanta has a lot of offensive firepower, ranking first in offensive DAVE so far. They played an impressive game at Seattle last week and may have won if not for a missed pass interference call on their last offensive snap. The Falcons can move the ball at will against San Diego—the Chargers may be able to keep it close for a while but Atlanta should pull away by the end.

Buccaneers -2 over 49ERS: Until a 49ers’ quarterback, be it Blaine Gabbert or Colin Kaepernick, plays a semi-acceptable game, nobody should bet on them if the spread is less than one score.

Patriots -7 over STEELERS: Remember in Week 1 of last season when the Steelers were completely incapable of covering Rob Gronkowski? A big part of that was New England going to a two tight end formation in the red zone, something they continued to do for the early part of 2015 with great success. Now that New England has Martellus Bennett, those sets are back and better than ever. With Landry Jones filling in for Roethlisberger, this has some blowout potential.

Seahawks +2 over CARDINALS: It might be time to worry about Carson Palmer. He ranks 24^th in both DYAR and DVOA, 22^nd in QBR and has gone from a league-leading 8.41 adjusted net yards per attempt last season to 6.06 this season. The Cardinals can still make the playoffs, but unless Palmer regains his footing, they are not a Super Bowl contender and they cannot beat a strong defensive team like Seattle.

BRONCOS -7.5 over Texans: Brock Osweiler on the road against his former team, whose defense is one of the best in the league, in a nationally televised game, does not look very enticing. Denver should be able to keep the Texans pinned back, winning the field position battle and making things easy for Trevor Siemian just as they did in the first few weeks of the season.

Last Week: 9-4-2

Season: 51-39-2

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] Important caveat: this is assuming Joe Flacco plays. If not, I still like Baltimore, but it’s a stay-away.

Week 6 Preview: The State of the Running Back

In Week 5 of 2015, in an afternoon game at home against the Chicago Bears, Jamaal Charles tore his ACL for the second time in his career. It was a crushing blow for the Chiefs, who were 1-3 before that game and fell to 1-4 with little hope after the spark of their offense had been blown apart by the injury. They lost the next week at Minnesota, scoring just 10 points and rushing for just 57 yards—a confirmation of what many had feared. Then, something strange happened. The Chiefs beat the Steelers, then they went to London and blew out the Lions by the score of 45-10. They went to Denver and won, then blew out San Diego. This streak morphed into a playoff appearance and a playoff win in which Kansas City blew out Houston on the road. From Week 7 on, they did not lose until the Divisional Round of the postseason—an 11 game winning streak when mustering any sort of an offensive attack seemed impossible.

At the time, I thought that Jamaal Charles was a textbook example of the Ewing Theory. The Chiefs’ offense opened up once he was gone—Alex Smith gained confidence and suddenly things were less one-dimensional. That may be, but I think there is a case to be made that the running back position simply does not matter like we thought it did.

When Charles got hurt last season, fantasy players rushed to pick up Charcandrick West and/or Spencer Ware, who would combine to replace him. In that realm, back-up running backs can often come close to duplicating the production seen by the starter. If this is the case in terms of fantasy production, then why haven’t we at least attempted to try and see if it applies to a team’s performance?

Don’t get me wrong, equating fantasy football with reality is a slippery slope that we shouldn’t go down. And there are certainly teams that lean on the run, such as Dallas, where injuries would affect things more than, say, Kansas City. However, it’s been well-documented that running the ball does not win football games when you look at the league as a whole. Additionally, a quick look at the leaders in DYAR and DVOA among running backs shows that the relation between those stats and record is virtually nonexistent. Sure, there are players like LeSean McCoy and Ezekiel Elliot, whose offenses have undoubtedly been lifted by their own ability in the run game. But there are also players like Isaiah Crowell and Carlos Hyde, whose offenses are utterly terrible, despite their efforts.

There are a lot of factors at play here. Run blocking plays a huge role in the success of a run game and teams like Cleveland and San Francisco don’t have particularly good run blocking. I would say that the biggest factor, however, is the simple idea that you can pass the ball effectively without a run game fairly easily, but doing the reverse is close to impossible. In other words, building a team around the pass allows for a better run game than building a team around the run.

Let’s look at the top-5 running backs in DYAR[1]: Isaiah Crowell, LeSean McCoy, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliot and Carlos Hyde. Furthermore, let’s split those players up by whether their offenses rank above or below average in DVOA. The Bills (McCoy) and the Cowboys (Elliot) are above average while the Browns (Crowell), Cardinals (Johnson) and 49ers (Hyde) are below.

It’s not hard to see what separates these offenses from one another. Dak Prescott ranks second among quarterbacks in DYAR and third in DVOA. He hasn’t thrown an interception and ranks fourth in adjusted net yards per passing attempt. The difference between Elliot and the running back by committee the Cowboys had last season isn’t so much the player itself as the threat of the pass.

Things are more complicated with the Bills—Tyrod Taylor is an above average quarterback by DYAR but his play has declined from last season by most statistical measures. However, it can be explained in how opponents treat the Bills. Coming into last season, Taylor was a complete unknown—a former backup who won the starting job from E.J. Manuel and Matt Cassel. Of course McCoy averaged less than three yards per carry twice in the Bills’ first three games last season—teams were stacking the line of scrimmage. The reverse is true this season. Teams have significantly more respect for Taylor after his Pro Bowl campaign last season. He’s shown ability to stretch the field vertically and opposing teams know that if they stack the line, Taylor will happily toss it deep and reap the rewards. Thus, McCoy’s production has gone up while Taylor’s has declined.

When it comes to the bad offenses, the reason for struggles in Cleveland and San Francisco are overwhelmingly clear to anyone who has watched either team this season. Cleveland is trotting out a carousel of misery at quarterback and may turn to their best receiver—Terrelle Pryor—to take snaps under center at times this week while the 49ers are so desperate at the position that they are starting Colin Kaepernick, who was benched last season after the offense proved utterly incapable of functioning with him throwing the ball. Opposing teams don’t even have to mind the pass against either team, making it even more impressive that Crowell and Hyde have done so well this season.

David Johnson is the most interesting case of the five. Arizona’s offense has traditionally been strong in the Bruce Arians era, particularly when throwing deep, but that has not been the case this season. Carson Palmer has been noticeably poor since his NFC Championship Game meltdown at Carolina, throwing five picks in four games this season, while Drew Stanton turned last week’s Thursday night game into a festival of misery in filling in for Palmer. Yet, Arizona’s run game has still been a strength—the Cardinals rank 13^th in rushing DVOA and Johnson has averaged five yards per carry, good for 10^th in the league. Hypothetically, teams should be stacking the box against the Cardinals to try and mitigate the run. Unlike Cleveland and San Francisco, however, Palmer does have a pedigree. Opposing coaches are not going to change their opinions on a player—or anything else for that matter—until it is painfully obvious[2]. Additionally, the Cardinals’ passing game is still built on deep throws. You can’t stack the box against them for fear that John Brown or Larry Fitzgerald will get free downfield.

You can pass without running, but it’s pretty tough to run without passing. That’s why Kansas City improved last season—their offense became less run-dependent with Charles out—and it’s why the Vikings have been so good despite Adrian Peterson getting hurt.

On to this week’s picks.

Week 6 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Broncos -3.5 over CHARGERS: In Paxton Lynch, the Broncos finally found a quarterback that can lose a game for them. Luckily, Trevor Siemian seems likely to play on Thursday night, which means that Denver will be just fine offensively; especially given that San Diego’s defense is in a constant state of crisis. I still love betting against the Chargers at home—this seems like one of those games where Philip Rivers will have to use the silent count in the red zone—so load up on the Broncos this week.

PATRIOTS -9 over Bengals: Death, taxes and New England against the spread. 

GIANTS -3 over Ravens: Must-win game for both teams, but ultimately I just have not seen anything positive out of the Ravens this season on the offensive side of the ball. Maybe firing Marc Trestman will provide a spark, but it’s tough to see Marty Mornhinweg, whose last coordinator job was for the horrific Geno Smith-led Jets, as a savior of any sort. The Giants have been losing (mainly) because Eli Manning has been on one of his bad streaks. It’s about time for him to snap out of it and if he doesn’t, New York’s season could be effectively over.

SAINTS +3 over Panthers: Drew Brees, at home, against Carolina’s godawful secondary, getting points. Yes, please.

Steelers -7.5 over DOLPHINS: Miami currently ranks 28^th in DVOA—30^th in offense and 21^st in defense. How they are supposed to compete in this game, with the corpse of Ryan Tannehill in the pocket and Byron Maxwell (assuming he doesn’t get re-benched) covering Antonio Brown, I have no idea.

Jaguars +2.5 over BEARS: The Jaguars are in the cellar of the AFC South, but in part because they have played one less game than the rest of the division. Call me crazy, but I’m not crossing them off just yet. The rest of the division is so bad that it might only take seven or eight wins to win it. That’s not out of the realm of possibility for this team given that their schedule is easier than that of Houston and Indianapolis, per Football Outsiders’ metrics.

49ers +8 over BILLS: Let’s slow down the Bills bandwagon a little bit. They have a thin receiving corps without Sammy Watkins and have benefitted greatly from playing four (potentially five, depending on where Arizona winds up) bad offenses. Not to say that San Francisco has a good offense—the 49ers are probably the worst offense in the league outside of Cleveland—but I think they can keep it close by leaning on the run and using Kaepernick’s arm to keep Buffalo’s defense honest.  

LIONS -3 over Rams: Good defense beats good offense, but does bad defense beat bad offense? I’ll go ahead and say yes here in picking the 32^nd-ranked defense in DVOA to beat the 31^st-ranked offense in DVOA. In any case, this will be an ugly game that would be the worst of the week if not for the Browns existing.

TITANS -7 over Browns: Should the Browns just fold so that Cleveland can officially rid itself of any looming feeling that the Other Shoe is about to drop? Isn’t it bad karma for the Indians in the ALCS if the Browns are still lurking in the background going through quarterbacks faster than Donald Trump goes through controversies? At this point, the only lingering question for Cleveland is whether or not Terrelle Pryor is forced to go under center for an entire game at some point. At this point, the losses are more or less assumed, both straight-up and against the spread where Cleveland is a comparatively solid 1-4-0.

REDSKINS +2.5 over Eagles: Rookie quarterbacks are going to turn the ball over at one point or another and that time is coming for Carson Wentz. He threw his first pick last week in the Eagles’ loss to Detroit and more will come. I need to see a little bit more out of Philadelphia before I call the NFC East off or pick them as favorites on the road.

Chiefs +1 over RAIDERS: Don’t worry, I’m still on the Oakland bandwagon, but Kansas City can slow down Derek Carr just enough to win against a horrific Raiders’ defense. This is the type of game where Alex Smith can look like an All-Pro—the Raiders are 29^th in defensive DVOA and 29^th in pass defense DVOA—so as long as the Chiefs’ defense can slow down Oakland’s passing attack this is a very winnable game for them.

Falcons +6.5 over SEAHAWKS: After Atlanta’s convincing win at Denver, I am finally forced to admit that the Falcons are a playoff-caliber team. This is the most interesting game of the week for me—if Atlanta can win on the road against two of the best defenses in the league in consecutive weeks they might even be Super Bowl contenders—and I won’t be caught underestimating the Falcons again. This line is too high—FiveThirtyEight’s Elo spread has Seattle favored by 5.5—and I think they can keep it even closer than that. 

Cowboys +4.5 over PACKERS: The Cowboys offensive line against Green Bay’s run defense, which ranks second in DVOA, is an intriguing matchup but it’s almost impossible to think that the Cowboys could be overmatched in the run game after last week. If they can go to Lambeau Field and win, then there is a legitimate question as to whether or not Dak Prescott should keep the starting job, but it’s undeniable that the rookie has been a positive force for Dallas. If they can run the ball and keep Aaron Rodgers off the field, the Cowboys can at least cover.

Colts +3 over TEXANS: The Texans rank 31^st in DVOA after five weeks. In other words, they should not be favored over anybody, no matter the circumstance.

CARDINALS -8 over Jets: Assuming Carson Palmer plays[3], the Jets are the perfect team for Arizona to revive their deep attack against. New York has constantly been beaten deep this season, the Cardinals will practically be coming off a bye having played their last game on a Thursday, and the Jets’ season is essentially over after their loss to the Steelers. I still think Arizona is a playoff team and this is another must-win game. Expect them to come through.

Last Week: 10-4-0

Season: 42-35-0

 

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] This is the part where I point out that this is entirely subjective and in no way represents an actual study or quantitative proof of anything on this topic.

[2] See Manning, Peyton, circa 2015

[3] If he does not, I reserve the right to change my pick.

Week 5 Preview: Taking stock of the disappointing preseason favorites

Through four weeks, we’ve seen some surprises on both ends of the spectrum. The Falcons look like contenders, the Cardinals look like Carson Palmer has been replaced by Matt Leinart and the Rams are above .500. For those teams on the bottom, the climb back is extremely tough—only 14 percent of teams that started 1-3 have made the playoffs. With that in mind, I decided to look at the four 1-3 teams with the highest expectations coming into the season and evaluate their chances of turning things around. Let’s get right into it.

Arizona Cardinals: The biggest reason to believe that they can turn it around stands on the sideline wearing a beret. Bruce Arians is one of the best coaches in football, but it seems that some defenses have started to see Arizona’s take-no-prisoners offense as predictable. It’s up to Arians to fix that and mix in more short and intermediate throws along with the Cardinals’ standard deep balls. However, this hinges on the quarterback position as much as Arians. Carson Palmer won’t play this week[1], but after he returns from the concussion that is currently keeping him out, Palmer needs to play at the level he did last season. Since his NFC Championship Game meltdown last January, Palmer hasn’t looked the same. Sure, 2015 was a career year, but Palmer was great in 2014 before getting hurt as well. He’s capable of being that player in this offense, with Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd catching the ball and with David Johnson running it. Whether he lives up to that capability may decide the outcome of their season.

New York Jets: It turns out that Jets fans were right to be worried about their schedule this season. After blowing a Week 1 game against the Bengals, New York is suddenly staring down the 1-3 barrel, having failed to gain ground on New England before Tom Brady’s return. It doesn’t get any easier either—the Jets’ next three games are at Pittsburgh, at Arizona and against Baltimore. Right now, the blame is being thrown onto Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the defense hasn’t done itself any favors either. The Jets are 28^th in defensive DVOA and 25^th in defensive DAVE. Outside of Buster Skrine, none of the players in their starting secondary have a PFF grade above 69.6, painting a harrowing picture for a team that was dependent on defense last season. If things don’t turn around this week against the Steelers, you might as well write off the Jets given their offensive limitations.

Indianapolis Colts: In all fairness, the only people expecting the Colts to be real Super Bowl contenders were people working for the Colts. However, this team has underperformed even the most pessimistic predictions with general manager Ryan Grigson’s draft misses playing a huge role. The offensive line ranks 30^th in adjusted sack rate and has been riddled with injuries on the right side. Given their defensive struggles—the Colts are 30^th in defensive DVOA—Indy might need Andrew Luck to be Superman if they are to win on a given week, let alone make the playoffs.

Carolina Panthers: Their slow start has largely been chalked up to schedule, but there are underlying issues with this team that need fixing. Namely, the secondary has been a disaster after Josh Norman’s abrupt offseason departure. Julio Jones ate Bene Benwikere’s lunch last week with a monstrous 300 receiving yards, but James Bradberry and Robert McClain haven’t been much better. Outside of his pick-six last week, Kurt Coleman has failed to replicate a great 2015 while Kawann Short hasn’t been close to the same presence inside. After four weeks, the Panthers are 15^th in defensive DVOA. Compare that to their second-place finish last season and the reason for their struggles becomes clear. Their road to the playoffs is much easier—the NFC South is one of the lesser divisions in football—but if the Falcons are for real, then things suddenly get a lot more tough.  In any case, the Panthers must fix things defensively if they are to be Super Bowl contenders again.

Week 5 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

Cardinals -3.5 over 49ERS: I’m surprised this line hasn’t moved further toward San Francisco since the news that Carson Palmer won’t play, but this is a Kitchen Sink game for the Cardinals. There is just no way Arizona loses this if they are contenders in any way—if they do then they’ll be 1-4 and essentially out of the playoff race. I can’t see that happening to a Bruce Arians-led team, even with Drew Stanton at quarterback.

VIKINGS -6.5 over Texans: Brock Osweiler, on the road, against a top-3 defense is a recipe for disaster. The Vikings are legitimate Super Bowl contenders as long as Sam Bradford stays healthy and as long as the offensive line holds up, there shouldn’t be much, if any, trouble for them in this game.

Titans +3.5 over DOLPHINS: The Dolphins shouldn’t be 3.5-point favorites over anyone. I’ve officially given up on Ryan Tannehill, who hasn’t gotten better in the slightest since Adam Gase took over as head coach. The Dolphins don’t have a rushing attack, Tannehill can’t throw the ball and their defense is 28^th in yardage. Their lone win was against the Browns and the only reason they even won that was because Cleveland missed three field goals. This team is utterly terrible and should not be bet on under any circumstance.

Patriots -10.5 over BROWNS: I said last week that I’m not picking against New England for the rest of the year unless the line is utterly ridiculous and this line doesn’t meet that threshold. Frankly, it couldn’t be high enough in Tom Brady’s return.

STEELERS -7 over Jets: I wanted to pick the Jets in this game, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is crumbling to pieces in front of the entire city. He’s throw nine interceptions in two weeks, an incredible number in the worst way possible. New York is also 31^st in pass defense DVOA and faces the most prolific aerial attack in the league this week, on the road, which doesn’t bode well for a team in a must-win scenario so early in the year.  

Redskins +3.5 over RAVENS: I just don’t buy the Ravens yet. All of their wins thus far have been against subpar teams and none of them were convincing. Outside of the coaching and maybe the defensive line, I’m not sure you can point to any part of their team as an automatic advantage either. Until Baltimore starts turning in convincing wins against bad teams or starts beating good teams, I’m not taking them seriously as contenders.

LIONS +3 over Eagles: If you’re betting on this game, I think the under is better than the spread, but Carson Wentz as a road favorite worries me a little bit. The hype train has gotten a bit out of control and Detroit will slow it down a bit by keeping this one close.

Bears +4.5 over COLTS: Only one Colts starter on defense currently has a PFF grade above 58.5. In other words, I don’t think Brian Hoyer will have much trouble moving the ball, which is not a sentence I thought I would type at any point this year.

BRONCOS -5.5 over Falcons: Here’s who the Falcons have played so far with defensive DVOA ranking in parentheses: Tampa Bay (22), Oakland (29), New Orleans (27), Carolina (15). FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratings have Denver as 8.5-point favorites and the Broncos are fifth in defensive DVOA. Based on Sunday, the difference between Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch is minimal at best, so it’s tough to see Denver having much trouble offensively against the 31^st-ranked defense by DVOA.

Bills +2.5 over RAMS: If a Jeff Fisher-led team goes to 4-1, then everything we thought we knew about the NFL is wrong.

RAIDERS -3.5 over Chargers: Derek Carr played one of the best games of his career on Sunday against a feisty Ravens defense. Defensively, the Raiders have played acceptably for the past two weeks as well which, if they can keep it up, makes them downright terrifying. They can move the ball with ease against a San Diego defense that just lost its best player, Jason Verrett, and beat the Chargers twice last season. Oakland should continue their run as 2016’s Most Fun Team with a win this week.

Bengals -1 over COWBOYS: Cincinnati is well-rested and ready to shred a Dallas defense that has utterly failed to create a pass rush through four weeks. The Cowboys don’t have anyone to cover A.J. Green and may struggle to stop the run against a quietly decent Bengals’ offensive line. Dallas’ line has taken some injury hits and if Tyron Smith isn’t healthy on Sunday, they could struggle to slow down Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap.

Giants +7.5 over PACKERS: Are we sure the Packers are good? They’ve played one good half of football so far this season. I think they win this game, but I’m not sure Green Bay should be favored by more than a touchdown until Mike McCarthy’s offense looks competent for more than 30 minutes at once.

Buccaneers +7 over PANTHERS: Monday Night Football’s isn’t getting low ratings because of the election or Colin Kaepernick; it’s getting low ratings because the games are terrible. Look at this schedule and find me more than four games that you would pay to see not involving your team. It’s an impossible task. If ESPN is going to pay $15.2 billion for Monday Night Football, they should at least be able to guarantee some decent games.

Last Week: 10-5-0

Season: 32-31-0

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] If he misses next week’s game against the Jets, you may be able to write off Arizona entirely.