This time of year is ripe for overreaction. That’s natural—we’ve had six months of buildup and only two games—but it’s also wrong most of the time. Despite being wrong most of the time and knowing that we’re probably wrong most of the time, it’s pretty hard not to overreact after two weeks. With that in mind, here is a short guide to overreacting after two weeks of football.
Stick to your guns until one of the following things happens:
- The coach is fired: After a team fires its coach, it gets exponentially harder to win. The interim may want to install something different or be even worse than the first coach. Plus, if you’re firing a coach, it means things are pretty terrible to begin with.
- The team is getting blown out on a frequent basis: Point differential is more indicative of talent than record. Apart from some rare instances (i.e. the 2015 Broncos and Giants), teams are rarely good or bad in close games. If they’re getting destroyed or destroying on a weekly basis though, it may be time to overreact.
- The quarterback gets hurt.
- Their deficit in the playoff race becomes too hard to overcome even with a turnaround: I’m currently experiencing this with Jacksonville. I still think the Jaguars can contend, but if they lose and Houston wins this week, it’s unrealistic to expect a playoff berth as they’ll be three games back in the division and the AFC wild card is a tougher competition than the AFC South. After a certain point, math overrides your predictions.
Remember that:
- Good coaches and/or quarterbacks usually come around: Seattle starts slow every year and every year, people declare them dead. Just because it takes a team a few weeks to shake off the rust doesn’t mean that team is out of contention. As long as the team is staying relevant, they can mount a run at any time.
- Opponents play a large role in dictating success: If a team comes out of the gate and beats the Browns, Titans and 49ers, you probably shouldn’t take much from it. That team may be good, but beating three of the worst teams in football isn’t an indicator of that as much as an indicator of being good as it is of being not awful. Wait to see how a team does against good opponents before making judgements—even if they get into the playoffs on the back of an easy schedule, you can make money betting against them in the first round.
- It’s early. Really early. Before the year starts, pick a date in your head. Maybe it’s as late as Thanksgiving, maybe it’s as early as Week 6. Don’t make huge changes until that date unless one of the circumstances above occurs. Personally, I prefer Week 8 because Football Outsiders incorporates their preseason projections into DVOA until Week 8.
- Most injured players can be replaced without a team losing much. If a running back goes down, everyone in your fantasy football league rushes to add the back-up because he will likely come close to the starter’s production if given the opportunity. Often, the same goes in real life at positions that don’t have fantasy implications. It doesn’t apply for every player and every position—if J.J. Watt or Tyron Smith gets hurt, the production from their positions will change—but non-superstars are surprisingly replaceable. It’s counterintuitive, but unless a team or positional group is decimated by injuries, it’s unlikely they’ll have a huge effect.
On to the picks.
Week 3 Picks
Vegas Insider’s consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.
Texans -1 over PATRIOTS: It’s tough to bet against the Patriots as home underdogs, but Jacoby Brissett is starting at quarterback[1] and Houston is favored by a mere point. If you’re not betting against New England here, you probably won’t bet against them all season. Houston’s pass rush has been great thus far and J.J. Watt is only getting healthier. They’re going up against a New England line that’s starting Marcus Cannon at right tackle—across from Whitney Mercilus who already has two sacks this season. I can’t imagine the Patriots will dare make Brissett stand in the pocket and face pressure which means a steady diet of screens, runs and play action. Against a lesser defense, that may work, but I can’t see it happening on a short week against a top-10 team in defensive DAVE.
BENGALS -3 over Broncos: The gambling public seems to have caught onto the Broncos being good as this line seems about right. The Bengals can slow down Denver’s pass rush and their defense is the toughest matchup yet for Trevor Siemian. This game seems ripe for the Broncos’ first loss with Siemian at the helm—although if their interior line proves to be as good as it’s been the first two weeks they may be able to slow down Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap enough to cover on the back of C.J. Anderson.
Raiders +1.5 over TITANS: I’m not sure how the Titans are favored over a team that should at least contend for the playoffs, but they are. This coaching matchup is about as lopsided as can be[2] and I can’t fathom Tennessee’s secondary slowing down Derek Carr, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. This could be a high-scoring game given Oakland’s defensive issues thus far, but I don’t think the Titans can keep up given that Mike Mularkey is their coach. He’s not apt to let Marcus Mariota air it out and exotic smashmouth isn’t the right way to beat a team that can score on you.
Cardinals -4 over BILLS: I was somewhat worried about this being a trap game as Bruce Arians’ Cardinals have severely underperformed at times against inferior competition, but their next two games are against the Rams and 49ers. Plus, they had a trap game was in Week 1 when they lost to New England at home. The Bills might challenge New Orleans for the worst defense in football and they fired the wrong coordinator last week. I can’t imagine the Ryan brothers have much time left—firing Greg Roman after scoring 31 points against a good Jets’ defense, not to mention that he turned Tyrod Taylor into an above average quarterback, can’t be too inspiring to the locker room. If the Cardinals blow them out this week, it could be the last straw.
JAGUARS +1 over Ravens: Gus Bradley is fast closing in on Rex Ryan and Chuck Pagano in the first coach fired race. I’m willing to give the Jaguars one more game, at home against a mediocre Ravens’ team, until I hop off the bandwagon.
DOLPHINS -9.5 over Browns: I have no feel for this game, just picking against the Browns based on merit. As I was writing this, I got an alert that Corey Coleman broke his hand which, along with Josh Gordon probably getting cut and/or suspended at some point later this week essentially kills the Browns being a semi-watchable offense. It was a good run while it lasted.
GIANTS -4.5 over Redskins: The Giants might be good and I’m trying to temper my excitement. The Yankees already baited me this month, I don’t want the same thing to happen here but their defense is 15th in DAVE right now and they have the 15th-best defense in football, they could contend for the Super Bowl. Sterling Shepard is the early frontrunner for Rookie of the Year, Victor Cruz is healthy and they’re not falling apart at the end of games. I think they move to 3-0 this week as Kirk Cousins has been woeful and the Redskins don’t have a run game to fall back on. Unless Josh Norman performs voodoo magic on Odell Beckham Jr., the Giants should be able to move the ball, win this game and cover.
Lions +7.5 over PACKERS: Anyone who tells you the Packers are struggling because of Aaron Rodgers hasn’t watched the Packers over the past two years. Rodgers isn’t struggling, he’s just gone from impossibly good to a “normal” top-3 quarterback. The problem is the scheme, which completely fails to help receivers get open and the receivers themselves, who are completely incapable of getting open. Rodgers dragged them to 10 wins last season and he’ll probably do the same this season. As for this game, I think this spread is at least ½ point too high against a Lions team that would have beaten the Packers twice last season if not for Rodgers’ heroics.
Vikings +7 over PANTHERS: I don’t think losing Adrian Peterson is that big a blow to Minnesota’s chances. He was averaging 1.6 yards per carry through two games behind abominable run blocking—the Vikings were going to turn into a passing team regardless. Sam Bradford won’t play like he did on Sunday night most weeks, but he has a higher floor than Teddy Bridgewater did last season and their defense looks really, really good. Carolina may win this game straight-up, but the Vikings should keep it close enough to cover.
SEAHAWKS -9.5 over 49ers: I refuse to worry about the Seahawks until at least Week 8. I made that mistake last year and I won’t make it again. They’re a slow-starting team and lost last week to Los Angeles—a team that, for some reason, always does well against them. San Francisco does not usually play them close and I can’t imagine them starting to do so this week.
BUCCANEERS -5.5 over Rams: The Rams have scored nine points in two weeks and don’t seem to have entertained starting Jared Goff. Either Jeff Fisher drafted someone incapable of beating out Case Keenum or he’s completely failing to see that the #1 pick in the draft is better than Case Keenum. Did I mention that Andrew Luck threw for more yards in Week 1 than Keenum has in the first two weeks combined?
Steelers -3.5 over EAGLES: Be patient when it comes to rookie quarterbacks. Flaws will reveal themselves at some point and this is that game for Carson Wentz. Pittsburgh is the first non-bottom-5 defense he’ll face in the NFL, so please excuse me for not anointing him as the next (insert Hall of Fame quarterback), but I’ll hold off on him and the Eagles until they beat good, or even average teams.
CHIEFS -3 over Jets: The Chiefs-Texans game last week was weird. There were two catches that got called non-catches, both on big plays, three Kansas City fumbles, all of which were lost, along with nine penalties on the Chiefs. Ryan Fitzpatrick will have trouble moving the ball against a top-10 defense in DAVE unless he duplicates his great performance last Thursday against the Bills. New York’s defense is nothing to sneeze at, but Alex Smith should be able to move the ball against a middling secondary. I’m also slowly falling in love with Spencer Ware as he’s averaged 6.0 yards per carry thus far along with nine receptions for 177 yards. At home, the Chiefs should take this one.
Chargers +3 over COLTS: San Diego’s offense has impressed thus far and the Colts are playing Rashaan Melvin, Antoni Cromartie and Darryl Morris at cornerback. The only way they can win this game is by keeping pace in a high-scoring game, but even then there’s no guarantee they can cover.
Bears +7 over COWBOYS: The Cowboys should win this game and they should win it by a lot, but I’m picking the Bears solely because I think the difference between Brian Hoyer and Jay Cutler is pretty low and the line moved from four to seven after the news that Hoyer would be starting.
Falcons +3 over SAINTS: This might have the lowest TV ratings of any NFL game this century. Monday Night Football’s ratings are already tanking and now they have to go up against the first Presidential Debate, which could draw higher ratings than the Super Bowl. I won’t be watching this game live and I sat through Rams-49ers in Week 1 and Jaguars-Titans on Thursday Night Football two years in a row. Just a terrible break for ESPN.
Last Week: 8-8-0
Season: 16-16-0
All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted
[1] If Garoppolo starts (currently listed as doubtful), my pick changes
[2] Jack Del Rio is the early frontrunner for Most Improved Coach and he wasn’t half-bad last year either
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