On Sunday, the Jets lost in a Jets-y fashion. The final score was 23-22 and the Jets missed an extra point, had a 22-yard field goal blocked and threw a game-ending interception. It was a quintessential Jets loss--opportunities left all over the field with a heartbreak ending.
The odd thing about it was that the Bengals were on the other end. Quietly, Cincinnati has been one of the most unlucky teams in football since drafting Andy Dalton in 2011.
Before Dalton, they weren’t exactly the luckiest team in football either. Marvin Lewis’ first playoff appearance was in 2005, the third year of his tenure. Carson Palmer was in his second year and led the league in completion percentage and touchdowns. They won the division and were at home in the Wild Card round against the Steelers. Then, Palmer tore his ACL on his first throw of the game. With backup Jon Kitna at the helm, the Bengals meekly went out 31-17.
It wasn’t until 2009 that the Bengals made it back after their defense ranked 30th and 27th in yardage in ’06 and ’07 and Palmer got hurt again in ’08. It didn’t help that they were stuck in the AFC North either, where the Steelers and Ravens were perennial juggernauts.
Cincinnati drew the Jets in that playoff game and was a 2.5 point favorite at home. After the Jets went up by 10 with about six minutes left in the game, Palmer drove down the field to set the Bengals up for a field goal attempt. Then, Shayne Graham missed from 28 yards, effectively ending the game on his second missed field goal from less than 40 yards that day. Making those two field goals wouldn’t have won them the game—they lost by 10—but it may have changed things enough to have given them a chance.
The next year was a debacle, leading the team to draft Andy Dalton after Palmer’s ugly exit. That started a five-year streak of wild card game losses, nearly all of which can be chalked up to bad luck and bad breaks.
The only playoff loss in the Dalton Era that’s strictly out of this category is the first, in 2011. There are no excuses for losing a playoff game to T.J. Yates. Next year, however, they drew Houston again, this time with Matt Schaub healthy. Down by six and driving for the win, Dalton missed an open A.J. Green in the end zone on third down, then found Marvin Jones three yards short of the sticks on fourth down. You can put that on Dalton if you want, but near-misses have a way of finding the Bengals at the wrong time.
In 2013, they were blown out by San Diego in the first round, but even that came with some bad breaks. Fumble luck was not in their favor as two of their four turnovers came on failures to recover a fumble. They held Philip Rivers to just 128 passing yards, but Ronnie Brown ran for 77 yards on eight attempts. Brown averaged 3.5 yards per carry and didn’t run for more than 36 yards in any other game that season.
The next two years can be chalked up solely to luck. In 2014, they lost on the road to Indy with both A.J. Green and Marvin Jones missing the game with injury. Mohamed Sanu was the only Bengals wide receiver to get a target that game while fullback Ryan Hewitt and somebody named Kevin Brock each had multiple balls thrown their way.
It’s possible that the nadir of the Bengals’ bad luck was against Pittsburgh last season. Dalton missed the game with injury, but that didn’t seem to matter. With 1:56 to go, their win probability was 90.94 percent. Then, Jeremy Hill fumbled on what should have been a celebratory, clock-killing drive. Even so, with 22 seconds left the Steelers were facing 4th and 3 on their own 41. They converted it, but even after the 12-yard gain they still weren’t in Chris Boswell’s field goal range and had no timeouts. On the next play, Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones each committed 15-yard penalties, making the game-winning field goal a chip shot and once again, the Bengals exited in the wild card round.
After that game, the tides almost have to turn in Cincinnati’s favor. Sunday was the first piece of evidence that they are.
Week 2 Picks
Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS
Jets -1 over BILLS: The Bills just didn’t look ready for the season in their loss to Baltimore on Sunday. Their offensive line was anemic, it took LeSean McCoy until the second half to look like himself and Tyrod Taylor threw for just 111 yards. On a short week against an already great pass rush seeing Sheldon Richardson return from suspension, it’s tough to see the Bills covering in what is essentially a pick’em. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Jets win in a blowout, even with a poor performance from Ryan Fitzpatrick last week. It may be worth it to hedge that Chuck Pagano first coach fired bet from last week with Rex Ryan.
LIONS -5.5 over Titans: Every time you’re about to take the Titans, just take a step back and remember that Mike Mularkey is coaching them. I failed to do this last week and talked myself into them, then proceeded to watch them lose to Shaun Hill because Mularkey is running an offense from the Nixon administration. On the road, against the sneaky-decent Lions is not a good time to decide that the Titans can suddenly look like a football team from the modern era.
Chiefs +2.5 over TEXANS: This line is an overreaction to the first half of Week 1, when the Chiefs looked like the JV squad before coming back to win in overtime against San Diego. Don’t fall victim to that overreaction—FiveThirtyEight’s Elo model has KC as 1.5-point favorites and it’s easy to overrate Houston because they made some splashy moves in the offseason. In DAVE, a Football Outsiders stat that combines preseason projections with early season DVOA, the Chiefs are fifth and the Texans 23rd. Do yourself a favor and trust in the numbers.
PATRIOTS -6.5 over Dolphins: The only part of Week 1 that shocked me (outside of there not being a fan revolt during the Rams-49ers Monday Night game) was the Pats winning in Arizona without Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski or either starting tackle. Jimmy Garoppolo was perfectly competent, even creating a couple big plays, and Chandler Catanzaro missed a makeable field goal to lose a game that shouldn’t have been that close to begin with. This was the only game on New England’s schedule all year where they looked bad on paper and they won it. The rest of the league should be terrified to face this team once everyone is healthy and Brady is back.
BROWNS +6.5 over Ravens: Joe Flacco made roughly three good throws on Sunday and it felt like Baltimore only won because the Bills were so dead on offense. They’ll probably win again this week in the same fashion, but the Browns can keep it close. Josh McCown is less exciting, but he’s probably a better quarterback than Robert Griffin III at this point and Hue Jackson can run more conventional stuff with him under center. I don’t buy the Ravens as anything more than an average team and with Flacco’s struggles last week, the Browns can at least cover.
Bengals +3 over STEELERS: The Steelers won’t be able to dare the Bengals to run like they did with Washington on Monday and none of their corners are anywhere near reliable against A.J. Green. Of course, this also applies for the Bengals against Antonio Brown, but Cincinnati is better served to stop other facets of the Steelers’ attack than vice versa. This is the game of the week—there will be bad blood and lots of it from last year’s playoff game—but with Dalton at quarterback instead of A.J. McCarron, the Bengals should be able to pull through on the road.
Cowboys +3 over REDSKINS: Are we sure the Redskins are good? They didn’t beat a winning team last season and Jay Gruden got badly outcoached on Monday. They can’t run the ball in any way, shape or form and the defensive gameplan to beating them is out in the open after last week. Sure, they could change things up, but until Kirk Cousins can be consistent throwing the ball downfield, it’s not going to be easy. Dallas had an uncharacteristically bad game in run blocking against the Giants and Dak Prescott looked about the same as Cousins. The Cowboys can—and should—win this game outright.
GIANTS -4.5 over Saints: I went back and forth on this game, but settled on the Giants because even though their defense will probably be bad this season, it’s at least improved. The Saints looked exactly the same as last year on Sunday and Delvin Breaux got hurt. In what is likely to be a shootout, the Giants have a better chance to hold up than a Saints’ unit that is already 31st in both DVOA and DAVE.
49ers +13.5 over PANTHERS: This is just too many points. There’s no other logic to this pick outside of it being too early in the year to take a team favored by nearly two touchdowns. FiveThirtyEight’s Elo spread has this game at nine points which seems more reasonable for a game in Week 2.
CARDINALS -6.5 over Buccaneers: This line is a result of an overreaction to Week 1. The Cardinals played badly and lost a game they should have won. That’s not the first time this has happened in the past few years. Justin Bethel should take Brandon Williams’ snaps at corner and the passing game can settle in against a Bucs secondary that was 26th in pass defense DVOA last season. The Cardinals were 3-0 last season after a loss and they should easily cover here.
RAMS +3.5 over Seahawks: Seattle is traditionally a slow starting team and looks to be slow out of the gate again this year. The Rams usually play them close and this may be the only game all season during which the Coliseum is full and enthusiastically supporting the home team. Case Keenum can’t possibly be that bad again (assuming he starts) and nobody is better at delivering an encouraging loss than Jeff Fisher. If this line moves to three, I’ll flip but for now I like the Rams as home dogs.
BRONCOS -6 over Colts: Until the gambling public realizes that the Colts aren’t good, fade the hell out of them. Do the opposite with Denver. Andrew Luck is the only reason this team isn’t in danger of going 0-16; Denver can run the ball down their throats and Trevor Siemian was surprisingly competent on Thursday night. Defensively, the Broncos will get to Luck like a shark to blood. This has all the makings of a blowout.
RAIDERS -4.5 over Falcons: Atlanta’s defense might be terrible. Giving up 31 points in Week 1 at home against Tampa is deplorable and they’re facing a much better offense this week in Oakland. The biggest factor in this game will be whether or not Sean Smith’s terrible debut as a Raider was a fluke. He was terrible last week, posting a 40.3 PFF grade and giving up a 98-yard score to Brandin Cooks. Julio Jones is a tougher matchup and Smith needs to prove he’s worth the 4-year, $38 million contract Oakland gave him this offseason.
Jaguars +3 over CHARGERS: At home last season, the Chargers were 2-6-0 against the spread, per Team Rankings. This is already shaping up to be a year from hell for San Diego and I can’t see their home record improving with the referendum on building a new stadium looming. Without Keenan Allen, there’s nobody for Rivers to throw to and Jacksonville’s defense is a legitimately good unit[1]. They should win this game outright.
VIKINGS +2.5 over Packers: Don’t sleep on Minnesota with Sam Bradford. It’s pretty unlikely he’s worse than Bridgewater was last season and now he should be fully acclimated to Minnesota’s offense. The Vikings are at home, opening up their new stadium, and their defense played well against Green Bay last season. The Packers’ scheme hasn’t changed from last season, when it actively hurt their chances of winning. Even with Aaron Rodgers doing insane Aaron Rodgers things, the Vikings should be able to contain their offense enough to at least cover.
BEARS -3 over Eagles: It’s time to slow down the Carson Wentz bandwagon, or better yet, bring it to a halt. He played well on Sunday, but playing well against the Browns is the bare minimum an NFL quarterback can do. Assuming Kyle Fuller plays, the Bears are a much better test for the rookie and I think he’ll fail.
Last Week: 8-8-0
Season: 8-8-0
All stats are from pro-footballl-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted
[1] I’m surprised Myles Jack didn’t get on the field more in Week 1 though. It’s a bad sign for either his health, his play or both.
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