Last season, I centered my Week 1 Preview on the Dilfer Zone—the tier of quarterbacks that are just good enough to win a Super Bowl with. I reasoned that to win a Super Bowl, a quarterback couldn’t hurt his team’s chances of winning in a given week. Alex Smith, who doesn’t help or hurt the Chiefs, was the prototype but Blake Bortles, who throws lots of interceptions, didn’t meet the bar. Then the Broncos won the Super Bowl with Peyton Manning as their quarterback.
It feels weird to write this in reference to Peyton Manning, but the 2015 Broncos featured the worst quarterback to ever win a Super Bowl. There have been lots of Dilfer Zone quarterbacks to win it before—Earl Morrall, Bob Griese, Mark Rypien, Jeff Hoestetler, Trent Dilfer, Tom Brady[1], Brad Johnson, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco—but none as bad as Peyton Manning was last year. Manning had 17 interceptions in just 10 games, ranking second-to-last in interceptable pass rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting. The Broncos were just the third team ever to win at least five games while starting a quarterback with two or less AV[2]. In doing so, they proved my definition of a Dilfer Zone quarterback to be wrong.
This year, the Dilfer Zone consists of three levels. Level 1 is for the players like Manning, who hurt the team’s chances of winning but not enough to stop it from doing so. This group can only win a Super Bowl with a historically great defense like the 2015 Broncos. Level 2 is for the players who neither help nor hurt a team’s chances. They may have some flaws, but can be lifted up by teammates. With good coaching, good defense and good skill positions, these guys can win you a title. Level 3 is made up of the quarterbacks that will help you win a title but don’t make you automatic contenders. You still need a good supporting cast, but you won’t think twice about the quarterback position.
Without further ado, here is your 2016 Dilfer Zone.
Level 1
Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill has been greatly damaged by his supporting casts over the first four years of his career. Miami’s receiving corps has never clicked and they haven’t had a good coach in years, but Tannehill is far from the biggest problem. He had a passable 78.9 PFF grade last year and eight of his 12 interceptions weren’t his fault, per Cian Fahey’s charting. If Adam Gase turns out to be a decent head coach, there’s no reason Tannehill shouldn’t move up a level by the end of the year.
Ryan Fitzpatrick: Fitzpatrick is the prototype for an L1 Dilfer Zone QB. His supporting cast made him look good for most of last year despite a poor 3.5 percent DVOA and 72 percent accuracy rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting. The Jets were able to go 10-6 with Fitz, but with a better quarterback they would have likely made the playoffs as his poor decisions cost them games against Buffalo, Philadelphia and arguably Houston.
Matthew Stafford: Stafford has talent, but stats often overstate it as coaching and receiving talent have helped him immensely. He threw for 1,427 yards of simple YAC last season and averaged a pedestrian 25.7 throws per interceptable pass, per Cian Fahey’s charting. His 4,262 passing yards should come with a credit to Jim Bob Cooter, Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate as all three played a big hand in Stafford getting there. Nonetheless, the Lions have made the playoffs twice with Stafford and with the right team surrounding him; they could make it well past the first round.
Jameis Winston: Winston should move up at least one level this year but right now his decision-making is too much of a question mark. His 71.9 percent accuracy rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting, should improve with age but that number is too low for the NFL. These issues were apparent at Florida State and have yet to improve. Once they do, Winston will be a star but until then he’s a barrier to the Bucs getting anywhere.
Blake Bortles: Bortles made strides last season but, like Winston, poor decision-making hangs over all of the positives. He threw more interceptable passes (30) than all but two quarterbacks last season, per Cian Fahey’s charting, and regularly displayed poor accuracy. Despite better receivers, his completion percentage actually dropped by 0.3 percent, further indicating how bad this flaw is. Whether or not the Jaguars can be a playoff team this year largely hinges on whether or not Bortles can make things a little easier for his supporting cast.
Brock Osweiler: I’m including Osweiler here solely because he outplayed Peyton Manning last year. There’s no reason he couldn’t have done what Manning did in the playoffs last year if given the chance, putting squarely in this tier.
Sam Bradford: Lost in all of the noise over Bradford being traded to Minnesota is the fact that he was pretty good for the second half of last year. He finished with an 81.5 PFF grade, just outside the top-10 and his 44.3 interceptable pass rate was second in the league, per Cian Fahey’s charting. The price was ridiculous, but the Vikings traded for him because he can do what Teddy Bridgewater did last season without much trouble. In 2015, Bradford’s completion percentage was 0.3 percent lower than Bridgewater’s. Bradford’s passer rating was 2.3 points lower and he averaged 0.2 less yards per attempt. Bradford was worse, but only by an extremely thin margin.
Level 2
Kirk Cousins: Cousins was helped a lot by scheme and supporting cast last season, but the shift from Washington’s bad quarterback medley in years past was apparent to any viewer. Cousins could hit the easy throws Jay Gruden’s scheme needed from him while avoiding interceptions. Sure, it helped that the NFC East was a dumpster fire, but if someone is capable of completing 69.8 percent of passes, as Cousins did last year, then you can contend with that person at quarterback. Whether or not Cousins can play at a higher level, especially if the scheme gets tougher, is another story but last season proved that you can win with him and not in spite of him.
Tyrod Taylor: Of all the reasons the Bills disappointed last year, Tyrod Taylor somehow didn’t make the list. The former back-up made the Pro Bowl, ranking top-10 in QBR, DVOA and PFF grading. He showed a surprising proficiency for deep balls and turnovers simply weren’t an issue. Taylor had just a 1.6 percent interception rate and was top-10 in interceptable pass rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting. If the Bills falter this season, it won’t have much to do with him.
Alex Smith: I gave Smith as the prototypical Dilfer Zone quarterback because there is nobody in football, maybe even all of sports, who is more neutral to a team’s chances than Alex Smith. He won’t hit big plays or lead miraculous comebacks, but on the flipside he never throws the game away. It’s annoying at times, but the Chiefs will almost never lose a game because of Alex Smith. They won’t win games because of him either, but such is the life of a team with a Dilfer Zone quarterback.
Derek Carr: It wouldn’t be all that surprising if Carr moved up a level or out of the Dilfer Zone entirely by the end of the year. His talent is off the charts and virtually every statistical category made a leap from Year 1 to Year 2. With a good team around him, it won’t be long before Carr’s mettle is tested in the postseason, where he can show the world whether or not he can make another leap, this one landing in the realm of superstardom.
Joe Flacco: Coming off an injury, Flacco is a bit of a question mark this year but his record suggests he should be fine. His place here is pretty self-explanatory given the Ravens have been Super Bowl contenders—and winners—throughout Flacco’s career by building strong teams around him,
Matt Ryan: There was a point when Matt Ryan might have been at Level 3, but his play has slipped in the last few years. After Week 5 of last year, when Atlanta’s bubble burst, Ryan threw 12 picks compared to 15 touchdowns and he ranked just 19th in DYAR on the year. Ryan wasn’t hurting the Falcons’ chances—he was fourth in accuracy rating per Cian Fahey’s charting—but he wasn’t elevating teammates either. He had a massive overreliance on Julio Jones—although it was partly because the rest of their receiving corps was terrible—and a negative DVOA.
Marcus Mariota: The Titans don’t have anything close to the infrastructure to win regardless of quarterback, but Mariota had as good a rookie year as you could have asked for. He was middle of the road in accuracy percentage and interceptable pass rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting, and looked really impressive in some games. He won’t get any help from the coaching staff this year, but a year out it looks like he was the most talented quarterback of the 2015 Draft.
Level 3
Eli Manning: Two years ago, Manning would have been a Level 1 QB if he was in the Dilfer Zone at all. However, since Ben McAdoo has come in, Manning’s interceptions have nearly been cut in half and his completion percentage and adjusted net yards per attempt have shot up. McAdoo has given Manning’s career a second life as he’s thrown for over 4,400 yards in two straight years. Last season he made his first Pro Bowl since 2012 and was top-10 in accuracy rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting.
Philip Rivers: The Chargers were bad last season and will probably be bad this season, but that won’t have anything to do with Rivers. He was eighth in DYAR last season and fourth in interceptable pass rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting, throwing for 4,792 yards. He’s in the Dilfer Zone because the Chargers aren’t an automatic contender with him, but he’s undoubtedly elevated them every year he’s been the starter—even 2015’s 4-12 nightmare.
Andy Dalton: No quarterback had a bigger improvement last season than Dalton. He shot up from 23rd to fifth in QBR, 25th to second in DVOA and 22nd to fourth in DYAR. His PFF grade went from 75.6 to 87.4, threw six more touchdowns in three less games and cut his interception rate in half. It was astounding to see it unfold as Dalton suddenly began to elevate his teammates instead of vice versa. There’s a chance last season was an outlier, but as of now we have to treat Dalton based off of what we saw from him in 2015.
Andrew Luck: Just like we have to treat Dalton based off of what we saw in 2015, we should do the same with Luck. In the seven games he played last season, Luck was really, really bad. He threw 12 interceptions and completed just 55.3 percent of passes. He made three straight Pro Bowls in the preceding seasons and was hurt in 2015, but that doesn’t mean we can wipe it off the map. There’s a solid chance that Luck is right back with the elite quarterbacks in a few weeks, but no one can put him in the same class as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers right now unless they’re completely ignoring last season.
With one day left to get in preseason over/unders and prop bets, I decided to give out some of my favorites as part of this column. Here they are.
Over/Unders
Panthers OVER 10.5 (-105): If this bet was phrased “Will the Panthers be at least five games worse than last season?” the odds for No would be -250. This team won’t go 15-1 again, but it gets Kelvin Benjamin back with Josh Norman being the only real loss. The NFC South is slightly better, but it would be a massive shock if any team other than Carolina was to win it. Unless you think a star cornerback is worth five wins, there really isn’t any reason to bet the under here.
Bengals OVER 9.5 (-115): I’m all-in on the Bengals this year. This team was second in offensive DVOA last season despite Dalton’s injury and has the chance to be a top-5 team on both sides of the ball this year. Andy Dalton turned a corner in 2015 and turned Cincy into one of the most efficient offenses in football as they ranked fourth in points per drive. I don’t expect them to slow down.
Broncos OVER 9.5 (+145): This seems like a massive overreaction to the retirement of a player who actively hurt Denver’s chances of winning last season. Trevor Siemian is a question mark, but he’s not worse than Peyton Manning was last year. Yes, the defense has lost some players and yes, it’s close to impossible to put together the type of run they had last year but that doesn’t mean this isn’t a playoff team.
Texans UNDER 8.5 (Even): I don’t think Brock Osweiler will be an improvement over Brian Hoyer and with the Colts and Jaguars both significantly improved; the Texans are the odd man out in the division. This team only made the postseason last year because somebody had to win the AFC South, but there’s an actual competition this year. They’ve made some improvements in getting Lamar Miller and drafting Will Fuller and Braxton Miller, but I don’t think that compares to what the Jaguars have done or Andrew Luck returning to the Colts.
Jaguars OVER 7.5 (-125): I picked the Jaguars to win the division, which would presumably require at least seven wins. Their offense could be one of the most dynamic in football if the line can hold it together and the defense has reached a point where Gus Bradley should be able to make it into something. Jacksonville has playoff talent and I expect them to make use of it.
Patriots OVER 10.5 (-140): Do I have to write anything here? It’s the Patriots; of course they’ll win over 10.5 games.
Chargers UNDER 7.5 (Even): San Diego’s vote on whether or not to fund a new stadium for the Chargers is on Election Day. If the city votes No, and it looks like they will, the Chargers will play six of the most depressing games you’ve ever seen to round out the year. If you thought their home-field advantage was nonexistent last year, wait until then. This has all the ingredients for a 1995 Browns-esque year, which means misery, abound.
Prop Bets
All bets and lines are from sportsbook.ag
Mike Zimmer to win Coach of the Year (+900): This bet is based off of the premise that if the Vikings win the NFC North, Mike Zimmer will win Coach of the Year. The Bradford trade made me hesitate a little, but this is an award that’s usually driven by narrative. Mike Zimmer leading a Bridgewater-less Vikings team to a division title is a better story than Gus Bradley winning the AFC South with an 8-8 Jaguars team or Jack Del Rio getting Oakland a wild card when everyone expects him to do that. Right now, Minnesota is +400 to win the division and Mike Zimmer is +900 to win this award, making this one both a good value and a smart bet.
Chuck Pagano to be first coach fired (+1200): These odds are way too high given that Pagano and Ryan Grigson hate each other and Jim Irsay was inches away from cleaning house last season. If the Colts start out badly, and I think they will, Pagano will be gone like that. None of the coaches with shorter odds are particularly enticing either. Last year was the exception for Martha Ford firing coaches and executives in Detroit, if the Chargers are going to fire Mike McCoy they would have done it last year and the Rams’ front office seems to like Jeff Fisher for some reason. The only reason not to bet on Pagano is the Colts’ schedule[3]. Unless you think someone like Marvin Lewis, Sean Payton or Mike McCarthy may get the axe, there isn’t a better value on the board.
Ezekiel Elliot to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+110): Who else is going to win this award? Dak Prescott won’t start the whole year, Carson Wentz is severely underdeveloped and no skill position player will get half the opportunities that Elliot will. He’s running behind the best line in football on a team whose quarterback is hurt for the first half of the season. The Cowboys also spent the #4 pick on him because they felt he was the missing piece to their offense. Only four players have ever gotten 350 or more carries in their rookie season and all four won Offensive Rookie of the Year. Elliot is as close to a lock as they come.
Andy Dalton to win MVP (+7000): Purely from a value standpoint, this makes sense. 70/1 odds translates to a 1.41 percent probability and Dalton’s chances to win MVP are significantly higher than that. This is a player who got MVP buzz last year before he got injured and Cam Newton ran away with the award. If the Bengals win the AFC North and get a first-round bye, which they were on track to do last year before Dalton’s injury, the credit will fall at his feet. Throw in a Bengals’ receiving corps that many have called depleted and last year’s buzz will repeat itself. Dalton probably won’t win the award, but at 70/1, he’s a damn good value.
Bengals to win Super Bowl LI (+2000): Once again, I like this one as a value play. The Patriots are my actual pick to win it but at +750, there isn’t much point in betting on them this early[4], but I think the Bengals are the second-best team in the AFC. At 20/1, with New England a Rob Gronkowski injury away from disaster, this is your best option from a gambling perspective.
I’ve spent the last month previewing the divisions, but haven’t touched on playoff picks. Here are those picks.
Playoff Predictions
NFC Wild Card: Packers over Vikings, Seahawks over Giants[5]
AFC Wild Card: Chiefs over Broncos, Raiders over Jaguars
NFC Divisional Round: Cardinals over Packers, Seahawks over Panthers
AFC Divisional Round: Patriots over Raiders, Bengals over Chiefs[6]
NFC Championship Game: Cardinals over Seahawks
AFC Championship Game: Patriots over Bengals
Super Bowl LI: Patriots over Cardinals
Finally, here are this week’s picks. All lines are the VI consensus from Vegas Insiders and home teams are listed in CAPS.
Week 1 Picks
BRONCOS +3 over Panthers: In FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Elo ratings, out earlier today, Denver has the highest chance to win the title of any team in football. I don’t agree with that, but I do think this team is severely underrated. Expect a win to start the year as the Panthers continue to struggle against the Broncos’ star-studded defense.
Buccaneers +3 over FALCONS: Before the Vikings traded for Sam Bradford, I strongly considered the Bucs to take their playoff spot. If Jameis can cut down on his turnovers, this team could impress some people. This week, they’ll have a clear advantage in the run game and Robert Ayers will get on the board with a few sacks given his favorable matchup against left tackle Jake Matthews. With Atlanta having a fairly shallow receiving corps, I can’t see them being able to take much advantage of Tampa’s lackluster secondary and the Bucs should be able to at least keep it close.
TITANS +2.5 over Vikings: I’ll regret this pick as soon as I see Mike Mularkey roaming the sideline, but Sam Bradford hasn’t learned Minnesota’s system yet. If Mike Zimmer opts to play Shaun Hill, he’s actively putting the team at a disadvantage so this really is a choice between the lesser of two evils. With that in mind, this game has all the right ingredients for an upset.
Browns +4 over EAGLES: The highest level of football Carson Wentz has ever played at is the FCS title game against Jacksonville State. He barely played in preseason and was slated to be the #3 quarterback on this team before the Bradford trade. In making him the starter, the Eagles have done the impossible and made the Browns’ QB situation look good by comparison. With Cleveland getting points, you can lock this one up[7].
Bengals -2.5 over JETS: If you can’t tell from the earlier parts of this column, I like the Bengals this year. The Jets will have a tough time moving the ball against a Cincinnati defense that was top-10 in both run and pass defense DVOA. On the other side of the ball, I don’t trust the Jets’ secondary, especially with Darrelle Revis’ play in decline. Shutting down A.J. Green may be a task too tall for Todd Bowles’ crew.
Raiders +1 over SAINTS: This is one of the most fun games on the slate this week as both teams will air it out. I’m taking the Raiders because I find their secondary more reliable after they signed Reggie Nelson and Sean Smith in free agency and drafted Karl Joseph. However, this will be a shootout so the better bet may be the over.
CHIEFS -6.5 over Chargers: San Diego was 31st in run defense DVOA last season while the Chiefs were first in rushing offense DVOA. On a similar note, Spencer Ware’s two best games of 2015 by yards per attempt were both against the Chargers. Even without Jamaal Charles, there’s no reason to think that the Chiefs won’t be able to run the ball at will here. They haven’t lost to the Chargers since December, 29, 2013 and I don’t think that streak comes close to ending this week.
RAVENS -3 over Bills: As one team regains health, another team loses it. The Ravens were decimated by injuries last season and their year ended in a 5-11 dumpster fire. However, they’re healthy now and their bad injury juju has seemingly transferred to Buffalo. The Bills have already suffered numerous big injuries on their defense and to add to the misery, Marcel Dareus is suspended for four games. With the Ryan brothers involved, neither of whom seems to be anything more than bad coaches, this year could be a disaster for the Bills and that disaster will start on Sunday.
Bears +6 over TEXANS: With J.J. Watt playing hurt, I don’t think the Texans will be able to fully exploit Chicago’s questionable offensive line. If Jay Cutler can carry over his strong play from last season with new coordinator Dowell Loggains, Chicago’s offense looks pretty good, especially against a potentially poor Houston secondary. The Texans will be able to run the ball, but I’m not a very big fan of Brock Osweiler and there isn’t much reason Chicago can’t at least keep it close.
JAGUARS +5.5 over Packers: This is just too many points. The Packers shouldn’t be favored by 5.5 on the road against a team with a good secondary after what we saw from their receivers last year. Davon House, Prince Amukamara and first rounder Jalen Ramsey make up a formidable cornerback group in Jacksonville and although Jordy Nelson will help, he may be the only Packers’ receiver able to get open. I like Green Bay to win straight-up, but their passing game, particularly Mike McCarthy’s scheme, make it tough for them to cover.
SEAHAWKS -10.5 over Dolphins: There might not be a single matchup not involving Ndamukong Suh that looks favorable for the Dolphins in this game. The biggest thing to look for is DeShawn Shead, the corner who will try to fill the spot opposite Richard Sherman for Seattle. Shead played in that role for part of last season, but wasn’t particularly impressive. It won’t matter much this week, but if Seattle can’t figure out this position, it will be the first place opponents target come January.
Giants over COWBOYS (pick’em): I have trouble picking the Cowboys straight-up in Dak Prescott’s NFL debut. They’ll be able to run the ball, but handing it off 40 times isn’t a very efficient way to try and win in today’s NFL. If they’re down early, I don’t trust Prescott to bring them back and the newly revamped front four will give him a lot of trouble if they can get past Dallas’ offensive line.
Lions +3.5 over COLTS: This line is ½ point too high as these teams are very similar outside of preseason expectations. Both have poor defenses outside of a few players, no running game, unreliable offensive lines and bad coaches. With Darius Slay covering T.Y. Hilton, it will be tough for Indy to get much traction on offense while Matthew Stafford can take advantage of Detroit’s deep receiving corps to stretch out the Colts’ middling secondary. If Andrew Luck really is the same player that took the Colts to the AFC Championship Game in 2014, the Colts should win this game but even then I don’t think they can cover.
CARDINALS -6 over Patriots: The NFL robbed us of one of the best matchups of the season by scheduling this game in Week 1 instead of any time after Week 5. Instead of seeing the two best-coached teams in football go at it at full strength, we get Jimmy Garoppolo making his first ever start against one of the best defenses in football. This could get ugly real fast.
Steelers -3 over REDSKINS: This is quietly one of the most fascinating matchups of the week. I have lots of questions about both teams, particularly in pass defense, and I think we’ll get swift answers to those questions one way or another. If Kirk Cousins doesn’t slow down after the second half of last year, the Redskins will keep it close but I don’t see them being within three. Their run defense is suspect—it was 22nd in DVOA last year—and their secondary problems outweigh Pittsburgh’s for me.
Rams -2.5 over 49ERS: Gabbert! Keenum! Berman! It’s Monday Night Football on ESPN!
Last Year: 112-135-9
This Year: 0-0-0
All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise necessary
[1] This only applies for Super Bowl XXXVI, not the other three titles Brady has won.
[2] The other two were the 2005 Bears (Kyle Orton) and the 1971 Vikings (Gary Cuozzo).
[3] Their first four games are against Detroit, Denver on the road, San Diego and Jacksonville. Any of those could go either way.
[4] If you want to bet New England, wait until after this week when they get blown out by Arizona. That’s when their odds will be the highest.
[5] I originally had the Cowboys winning the NFC East but after the Romo injury, my pick changed to the Giants
[6] Yes, this game will involve a horrible clock management gaffe from Andy Reid. It wouldn’t be a Chiefs playoff loss without one.
[7] When was the last time someone wrote that? At least the 1980’s, right?
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