EthanSears.com

Week 4 Preview: Reevaluating the NFC East

The NFC East may not berth a Super Bowl contender, but it may be the closest division in football. After being a shambolic wasteland in 2015, three of the division’s teams are in the playoff hunt with the fourth on the cusp.

Philadelphia is the team that everyone (myself included) was dead wrong about. I wrote that the Browns were a lock against them in Week 1 with the game in Philly. It’s unclear whether or not Carson Wentz is a star, but he’s proven himself to be a Dilfer Zone quarterback at minimum after ranking fifth in DYAR and fourth in DVOA through three weeks. Defensively, the Eagles have the best unit in the division, ranking second in DVOA. If Wentz can keep playing well as the season goes on and the Eagles’ skill position troubles don’t catch up to them, they will win the division.

However, their skill positions are a potentially major issue. Jordan Matthews has been inconsistent at best while both Nelson Agholor and Dorial Green-Beckham have turned in below-average performances by PFF grading. They ran the ball last week, but if Ryan Mathews isn’t healthy coming out of the bye, it’s tough to see that continuing with Darren Sproles, Wendell Smallwood and Kenjon Barner splitting carries.

The Cowboys have survived well without Tony Romo, but there are clear holes in their roster right now. Left guard La’El Collins was put on IR and All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith may miss his second straight week with injury. With Dez Bryant suffering a hairline fracture in his knee that he may or may not play through, their offense suddenly looks as thin as the defense, which has utterly failed to produce a pass rush and is missing numerous players with suspension and injury. If Dallas can continue to survive these injuries, they can win the division and make noise in the playoffs once everyone is back. However, that’s far from a guarantee, even with Prescott playing well.

If Eli Manning doesn’t fall apart like he did last week and the defense continues to play well, the Giants will win this division. Both of those things are far from guarantees—Manning has been known to implode and the defense is teetering on the edge of average by DVOA. However, if both occur, New York is a borderline Super Bowl contender. With Sterling Shepard emerging as a threat for Offensive Rookie of the Year, their receiving corps is one of the best in football and Ben McAdoo’s system, they can move the ball. As long as their defense holds up, they can contend.

Washington is on the outside looking in, but if things go well for them this week, that will change. Kirk Cousins is a question mark, but the bar isn’t that high given how he performed last season. The Redskins have great pieces across the offense—particularly in the receiving corps and at left tackle with Trent Williams—but their defense will be an issue. They currently rank 25^th in defensive DVOA and DAVE—if things don’t get better on that unit it will prevent the Redskins from getting back into the mix for long.

On to the picks.

Week 4 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

BENGALS -7.5 over Dolphins: Here are the Bengals’ next five opponents: Miami, Dallas (road), New England (road), Cleveland, Washington. Outside of New England, they should win all of those games. If they do, Cincinnati will go into their bye week at 5-3 and their second-half schedule isn’t that tough either. The only thing that slightly worries me this week is the Bengals’ offensive line, which struggled badly last week against Denver. However, as good as Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake are, Miami’s front doesn’t compare to that of the reigning Super Bowl champs.

Jaguars +2.5 over Colts (N): The best thing the NFL could do to drive up interest in Europe is to stop giving them terrible games. They should make a rule that at least one team in every London game has to have made the playoffs the previous year because the most interesting thing about this matchup is seeing which coach gets fired afterward.

REDSKINS -7.5 over Browns: Terrelle Pryor did some interesting Terrelle Pryor things last week, but with Cleveland’s practice squad defense, I think we’re in for a Washington blowout, then a week of “Kirk Cousins is back” stories. Also, betting on the Browns when the spread is less than one score seems dubious at best.

PATRIOTS -4.5 over Bills: This line will move once we find out whether Jimmy Garoppolo or Jacoby Brissett is New England’s starting quarterback this week, but frankly I don’t care. After last week, there’s almost nothing that would make me pick against the Patriots for the rest of this season. Bill Belichick is the best coach of all-time and I think there is a very real chance the Patriots go 19-0. I picked them to win the Super Bowl before the season started and they have blown away my expectations.

JETS +2.5 over Seahawks: At this point, it’s clear that Russell Wilson’s injury is having a large effect on his play and I can’t see him sustaining effectiveness for 60 minutes against the Jets’ defensive front. Center Justin Britt is the only Seattle offensive lineman with a PFF grade over 51.7 right now. Putting that group up against a pass rush including Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams and Muhammad Wilkerson with an injured quarterback under center is close to negligence.

FALCONS +3 over Panthers: I think this game is a stay-away, but gun-to-my-head, I’m taking Atlanta. FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratings have the Panthers at just one point favorites and given that Carolina had the league’s easiest schedule by Football Outsiders’ metrics last season, I think there’s a solid chance they’re a good-bad team[1]. They should have beaten Minnesota last week and instead the Panthers were dominated by their defense and seemed to miss Jonathan Stewart badly. It’s worth remembering that the team started to struggle last season after Stewart got hurt with a near-miss against the Giants and a loss in Atlanta. In the Super Bowl, he had his worst game of the season, rushing for just 29 yards, so he may be more integral to their chances than one would expect.

Lions -3 over BEARS: I have no idea how Chicago’s secondary is going to stop teams with Kyle Fuller going on IR this week. The Lions have a deep receiving corps and Matthew Stafford can spread the ball around with ease against one of the worst teams in football

TEXANS -5 over Titans: I didn’t understand why the Titans were favored last week and I don’t understand why Houston isn’t favored by a touchdown this week. Anyone who thinks the Titans are a remotely decent football team needs to look over to the sideline and understand that they have one of the worst coaches in football. Sure, they’ve been able to run the ball, but, as Mike Mularkey fails to understand, running the ball is not how you win football games. The only justification for this line is that the public has overreacted to Houston’s embarrassing performance on national TV last week, in which case they become an even smarter play.

Raiders +3.5 over RAVENS: Baltimore is intriguing, but I’m not sure how much of their success is schedule-driven. The Ravens have played three bad offenses and two bad quarterbacks thus far and their defense has looked good. I’d like to see them do play well against another decent quarterback in Derek Carr and I’d like to see their offense look anything but catatonic against Oakland’s poor defense before I jump on the bandwagon.

Broncos -3 over BUCCANEERS: I was going to pick the Bucs in this game but then I remembered that Donovan Smith and Demar Dotson are their starting tackles. They will be unable to stop Denver’s pass rush and I’m not sure their defense is the one to make Trevor Siemian quake. FiveThirtyEight’s Elo spread has a five-point gap with this number in Denver’s favor as well, so the Broncos are quite clearly the safe pick.

Cowboys -2.5 over 49ERS: Dak Prescott has convinced me that he can, at minimum, be a Dilfer Zone quarterback. Despite injuries across the offensive line, I expect them to trounce San Francisco this week simply because the 49ers are terrible. There might not be another team more ill-equipped to take advantage of the Cowboys’ defense—which ranks 23^rd in DVOA—than the 49ers, who have almost no talent whatsoever at skill positions beyond Torrey Smith.

Saints +4 over CHARGERS: I’ll bet against the Chargers at home every chance I get before they move to L.A. because San Diego is getting a 3-point advantage in the spread that doesn’t reflect their lack of a home-field advantage. I’m not worried about Drew Brees playing outdoors since the weather will be nice and he played in San Diego for the first five seasons of his career and New Orleans can move the ball against the Chargers’ defense, or lack thereof.

CARDINALS -8.5 over Rams: If the Cardinals lose this game, then something might be wrong, but I can’t see Carson Palmer playing so badly again, nor can I see Bruce Arians rolling out such a predictable gameplan again. I mean, it’s not like he’s Jeff Fisher or anything.

Chiefs +5 over STEELERS: This is my Lock of the Week. FiveThirtyEight’s Elo spread has the Steelers as just 1.5-point favorites and I think Kansas City wins outright. Marcus Peters’ chances against Antonio Brown are better than most and the offense Doug Pederson runs in Philadelphia is obviously similar to what Andy Reid runs in Kansas City. The Steelers are 26^th in defensive DVOA and 23^rd in defensive DAVE thus far while Kansas City is top-5 in both categories. Ryan Fitzpatrick was pretty bad on his own against the Chiefs last week, but the defense should be given some credit for the worst-quarterbacked game I’ve ever seen. KC has the edge on both sides of the ball and this could be a decisive victory for them.

VIKINGS -4.5 over Giants: I’ve gone back and forth on this, but Minnesota’s pass rush terrifies me as a Giants fan. The Vikings decimated Michael Oher last week and it’s not hard at all to see them doing the same to Ereck Flowers this week, even after a string of encouraging games for the second-year player. New York may do the same thing to T.J. Clemmings and Andre Smith on the other end[2], but, well, I’d rather be cautious than overconfident.

 

Last Week: 6-10-0

Season: 22-26-0

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] If you’re unsure what that means, it’s a team that beats up on bad teams, and then loses against good teams.

[2] If you like bad offensive line play, you are going to love this game.

Week 3 Preview: The Overreaction Guide

This time of year is ripe for overreaction. That’s natural—we’ve had six months of buildup and only two games—but it’s also wrong most of the time. Despite being wrong most of the time and knowing that we’re probably wrong most of the time, it’s pretty hard not to overreact after two weeks. With that in mind, here is a short guide to overreacting after two weeks of football.

Stick to your guns until one of the following things happens:

1. The coach is fired: After a team fires its coach, it gets exponentially harder to win. The interim may want to install something different or be even worse than the first coach. Plus, if you’re firing a coach, it means things are pretty terrible to begin with.
2. The team is getting blown out on a frequent basis: Point differential is more indicative of talent than record. Apart from some rare instances (i.e. the 2015 Broncos and Giants), teams are rarely good or bad in close games. If they’re getting destroyed or destroying on a weekly basis though, it may be time to overreact.
3. The quarterback gets hurt.
4. Their deficit in the playoff race becomes too hard to overcome even with a turnaround: I’m currently experiencing this with Jacksonville. I still think the Jaguars can contend, but if they lose and Houston wins this week, it’s unrealistic to expect a playoff berth as they’ll be three games back in the division and the AFC wild card is a tougher competition than the AFC South. After a certain point, math overrides your predictions.

Remember that:

1. Good coaches and/or quarterbacks usually come around: Seattle starts slow every year and every year, people declare them dead. Just because it takes a team a few weeks to shake off the rust doesn’t mean that team is out of contention. As long as the team is staying relevant, they can mount a run at any time.
2. Opponents play a large role in dictating success: If a team comes out of the gate and beats the Browns, Titans and 49ers, you probably shouldn’t take much from it. That team may be good, but beating three of the worst teams in football isn’t an indicator of that as much as an indicator of being good as it is of being not awful. Wait to see how a team does against good opponents before making judgements—even if they get into the playoffs on the back of an easy schedule, you can make money betting against them in the first round.
3. It’s early. Really early. Before the year starts, pick a date in your head. Maybe it’s as late as Thanksgiving, maybe it’s as early as Week 6. Don’t make huge changes until that date unless one of the circumstances above occurs. Personally, I prefer Week 8 because Football Outsiders incorporates their preseason projections into DVOA until Week 8.
4. Most injured players can be replaced without a team losing much. If a running back goes down, everyone in your fantasy football league rushes to add the back-up because he will likely come close to the starter’s production if given the opportunity. Often, the same goes in real life at positions that don’t have fantasy implications. It doesn’t apply for every player and every position—if J.J. Watt or Tyron Smith gets hurt, the production from their positions will change—but non-superstars are surprisingly replaceable. It’s counterintuitive, but unless a team or positional group is decimated by injuries, it’s unlikely they’ll have a huge effect.

On to the picks.

Week 3 Picks

Vegas Insider’s consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS.

 

Texans -1 over PATRIOTS: It’s tough to bet against the Patriots as home underdogs, but Jacoby Brissett is starting at quarterback[1] and Houston is favored by a mere point. If you’re not betting against New England here, you probably won’t bet against them all season. Houston’s pass rush has been great thus far and J.J. Watt is only getting healthier. They’re going up against a New England line that’s starting Marcus Cannon at right tackle—across from Whitney Mercilus who already has two sacks this season. I can’t imagine the Patriots will dare make Brissett stand in the pocket and face pressure which means a steady diet of screens, runs and play action. Against a lesser defense, that may work, but I can’t see it happening on a short week against a top-10 team in defensive DAVE.

BENGALS -3 over Broncos: The gambling public seems to have caught onto the Broncos being good as this line seems about right. The Bengals can slow down Denver’s pass rush and their defense is the toughest matchup yet for Trevor Siemian. This game seems ripe for the Broncos’ first loss with Siemian at the helm—although if their interior line proves to be as good as it’s been the first two weeks they may be able to slow down Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap enough to cover on the back of C.J. Anderson.

Raiders +1.5 over TITANS: I’m not sure how the Titans are favored over a team that should at least contend for the playoffs, but they are. This coaching matchup is about as lopsided as can be[2] and I can’t fathom Tennessee’s secondary slowing down Derek Carr, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. This could be a high-scoring game given Oakland’s defensive issues thus far, but I don’t think the Titans can keep up given that Mike Mularkey is their coach. He’s not apt to let Marcus Mariota air it out and exotic smashmouth isn’t the right way to beat a team that can score on you.

Cardinals -4 over BILLS: I was somewhat worried about this being a trap game as Bruce Arians’ Cardinals have severely underperformed at times against inferior competition, but their next two games are against the Rams and 49ers. Plus, they had a trap game was in Week 1 when they lost to New England at home. The Bills might challenge New Orleans for the worst defense in football and they fired the wrong coordinator last week. I can’t imagine the Ryan brothers have much time left—firing Greg Roman after scoring 31 points against a good Jets’ defense, not to mention that he turned Tyrod Taylor into an above average quarterback, can’t be too inspiring to the locker room. If the Cardinals blow them out this week, it could be the last straw.

JAGUARS +1 over Ravens: Gus Bradley is fast closing in on Rex Ryan and Chuck Pagano in the first coach fired race. I’m willing to give the Jaguars one more game, at home against a mediocre Ravens’ team, until I hop off the bandwagon.

DOLPHINS -9.5 over Browns: I have no feel for this game, just picking against the Browns based on merit. As I was writing this, I got an alert that Corey Coleman broke his hand which, along with Josh Gordon probably getting cut and/or suspended at some point later this week essentially kills the Browns being a semi-watchable offense. It was a good run while it lasted.

GIANTS -4.5 over Redskins: The Giants might be good and I’m trying to temper my excitement. The Yankees already baited me this month, I don’t want the same thing to happen here but their defense is 15^th in DAVE right now and they have the 15^th-best defense in football, they could contend for the Super Bowl. Sterling Shepard is the early frontrunner for Rookie of the Year, Victor Cruz is healthy and they’re not falling apart at the end of games. I think they move to 3-0 this week as Kirk Cousins has been woeful and the Redskins don’t have a run game to fall back on. Unless Josh Norman performs voodoo magic on Odell Beckham Jr., the Giants should be able to move the ball, win this game and cover.

Lions +7.5 over PACKERS: Anyone who tells you the Packers are struggling because of Aaron Rodgers hasn’t watched the Packers over the past two years. Rodgers isn’t struggling, he’s just gone from impossibly good to a “normal” top-3 quarterback. The problem is the scheme, which completely fails to help receivers get open and the receivers themselves, who are completely incapable of getting open. Rodgers dragged them to 10 wins last season and he’ll probably do the same this season. As for this game, I think this spread is at least ½ point too high against a Lions team that would have beaten the Packers twice last season if not for Rodgers’ heroics.

Vikings +7 over PANTHERS: I don’t think losing Adrian Peterson is that big a blow to Minnesota’s chances. He was averaging 1.6 yards per carry through two games behind abominable run blocking—the Vikings were going to turn into a passing team regardless. Sam Bradford won’t play like he did on Sunday night most weeks, but he has a higher floor than Teddy Bridgewater did last season and their defense looks really, really good. Carolina may win this game straight-up, but the Vikings should keep it close enough to cover.

SEAHAWKS -9.5 over 49ers: I refuse to worry about the Seahawks until at least Week 8. I made that mistake last year and I won’t make it again. They’re a slow-starting team and lost last week to Los Angeles—a team that, for some reason, always does well against them. San Francisco does not usually play them close and I can’t imagine them starting to do so this week.

BUCCANEERS -5.5 over Rams: The Rams have scored nine points in two weeks and don’t seem to have entertained starting Jared Goff. Either Jeff Fisher drafted someone incapable of beating out Case Keenum or he’s completely failing to see that the #1 pick in the draft is better than Case Keenum. Did I mention that Andrew Luck threw for more yards in Week 1 than Keenum has in the first two weeks combined?

Steelers -3.5 over EAGLES: Be patient when it comes to rookie quarterbacks. Flaws will reveal themselves at some point and this is that game for Carson Wentz. Pittsburgh is the first non-bottom-5 defense he’ll face in the NFL, so please excuse me for not anointing him as the next (insert Hall of Fame quarterback), but I’ll hold off on him and the Eagles until they beat good, or even average teams.

CHIEFS -3 over Jets: The Chiefs-Texans game last week was weird. There were two catches that got called non-catches, both on big plays, three Kansas City fumbles, all of which were lost, along with nine penalties on the Chiefs. Ryan Fitzpatrick will have trouble moving the ball against a top-10 defense in DAVE unless he duplicates his great performance last Thursday against the Bills. New York’s defense is nothing to sneeze at, but Alex Smith should be able to move the ball against a middling secondary. I’m also slowly falling in love with Spencer Ware as he’s averaged 6.0 yards per carry thus far along with nine receptions for 177 yards. At home, the Chiefs should take this one.

Chargers +3 over COLTS: San Diego’s offense has impressed thus far and the Colts are playing Rashaan Melvin, Antoni Cromartie and Darryl Morris at cornerback. The only way they can win this game is by keeping pace in a high-scoring game, but even then there’s no guarantee they can cover.

Bears +7 over COWBOYS: The Cowboys should win this game and they should win it by a lot, but I’m picking the Bears solely because I think the difference between Brian Hoyer and Jay Cutler is pretty low and the line moved from four to seven after the news that Hoyer would be starting.

Falcons +3 over SAINTS: This might have the lowest TV ratings of any NFL game this century. Monday Night Football’s ratings are already tanking and now they have to go up against the first Presidential Debate, which could draw higher ratings than the Super Bowl. I won’t be watching this game live and I sat through Rams-49ers in Week 1 and Jaguars-Titans on Thursday Night Football two years in a row. Just a terrible break for ESPN.

 

Last Week: 8-8-0

Season: 16-16-0

 

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] If Garoppolo starts (currently listed as doubtful), my pick changes

[2] Jack Del Rio is the early frontrunner for Most Improved Coach and he wasn’t half-bad last year either

Week 2 Preview: The Bengals' luck might be changing

On Sunday, the Jets lost in a Jets-y fashion. The final score was 23-22 and the Jets missed an extra point, had a 22-yard field goal blocked and threw a game-ending interception. It was a quintessential Jets loss--opportunities left all over the field with a heartbreak ending.

The odd thing about it was that the Bengals were on the other end. Quietly, Cincinnati has been one of the most unlucky teams in football since drafting Andy Dalton in 2011.

Before Dalton, they weren’t exactly the luckiest team in football either. Marvin Lewis’ first playoff appearance was in 2005, the third year of his tenure. Carson Palmer was in his second year and led the league in completion percentage and touchdowns. They won the division and were at home in the Wild Card round against the Steelers. Then, Palmer tore his ACL on his first throw of the game. With backup Jon Kitna at the helm, the Bengals meekly went out 31-17.

It wasn’t until 2009 that the Bengals made it back after their defense ranked 30^th and 27^th in yardage in ’06 and ’07 and Palmer got hurt again in ’08. It didn’t help that they were stuck in the AFC North either, where the Steelers and Ravens were perennial juggernauts.

Cincinnati drew the Jets in that playoff game and was a 2.5 point favorite at home. After the Jets went up by 10 with about six minutes left in the game, Palmer drove down the field to set the Bengals up for a field goal attempt. Then, Shayne Graham missed from 28 yards, effectively ending the game on his second missed field goal from less than 40 yards that day. Making those two field goals wouldn’t have won them the game—they lost by 10—but it may have changed things enough to have given them a chance.

The next year was a debacle, leading the team to draft Andy Dalton after Palmer’s ugly exit. That started a five-year streak of wild card game losses, nearly all of which can be chalked up to bad luck and bad breaks.

The only playoff loss in the Dalton Era that’s strictly out of this category is the first, in 2011. There are no excuses for losing a playoff game to T.J. Yates. Next year, however, they drew Houston again, this time with Matt Schaub healthy. Down by six and driving for the win, Dalton missed an open A.J. Green in the end zone on third down, then found Marvin Jones three yards short of the sticks on fourth down. You can put that on Dalton if you want, but near-misses have a way of finding the Bengals at the wrong time.

In 2013, they were blown out by San Diego in the first round, but even that came with some bad breaks. Fumble luck was not in their favor as two of their four turnovers came on failures to recover a fumble. They held Philip Rivers to just 128 passing yards, but Ronnie Brown ran for 77 yards on eight attempts. Brown averaged 3.5 yards per carry and didn’t run for more than 36 yards in any other game that season.

The next two years can be chalked up solely to luck. In 2014, they lost on the road to Indy with both A.J. Green and Marvin Jones missing the game with injury. Mohamed Sanu was the only Bengals wide receiver to get a target that game while fullback Ryan Hewitt and somebody named Kevin Brock each had multiple balls thrown their way.

It’s possible that the nadir of the Bengals’ bad luck was against Pittsburgh last season. Dalton missed the game with injury, but that didn’t seem to matter.  With 1:56 to go, their win probability was 90.94 percent. Then, Jeremy Hill fumbled on what should have been a celebratory, clock-killing drive. Even so, with 22 seconds left the Steelers were facing 4^th and 3 on their own 41. They converted it, but even after the 12-yard gain they still weren’t in Chris Boswell’s field goal range and had no timeouts. On the next play, Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones each committed 15-yard penalties, making the game-winning field goal a chip shot and once again, the Bengals exited in the wild card round.

After that game, the tides almost have to turn in Cincinnati’s favor. Sunday was the first piece of evidence that they are.

Week 2 Picks

Vegas Insiders’ consensus lines are used. Home teams listed in CAPS

Jets -1 over BILLS: The Bills just didn’t look ready for the season in their loss to Baltimore on Sunday. Their offensive line was anemic, it took LeSean McCoy until the second half to look like himself and Tyrod Taylor threw for just 111 yards. On a short week against an already great pass rush seeing Sheldon Richardson return from suspension, it’s tough to see the Bills covering in what is essentially a pick’em. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Jets win in a blowout, even with a poor performance from Ryan Fitzpatrick last week. It may be worth it to hedge that Chuck Pagano first coach fired bet from last week with Rex Ryan.

LIONS -5.5 over Titans: Every time you’re about to take the Titans, just take a step back and remember that Mike Mularkey is coaching them. I failed to do this last week and talked myself into them, then proceeded to watch them lose to Shaun Hill because Mularkey is running an offense from the Nixon administration. On the road, against the sneaky-decent Lions is not a good time to decide that the Titans can suddenly look like a football team from the modern era.

Chiefs +2.5 over TEXANS: This line is an overreaction to the first half of Week 1, when the Chiefs looked like the JV squad before coming back to win in overtime against San Diego. Don’t fall victim to that overreaction—FiveThirtyEight’s Elo model has KC as 1.5-point favorites and it’s easy to overrate Houston because they made some splashy moves in the offseason. In DAVE, a Football Outsiders stat that combines preseason projections with early season DVOA, the Chiefs are fifth and the Texans 23^rd. Do yourself a favor and trust in the numbers.

PATRIOTS -6.5 over Dolphins: The only part of Week 1 that shocked me (outside of there not being a fan revolt during the Rams-49ers Monday Night game) was the Pats winning in Arizona without Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski or either starting tackle. Jimmy Garoppolo was perfectly competent, even creating a couple big plays, and Chandler Catanzaro missed a makeable field goal to lose a game that shouldn’t have been that close to begin with. This was the only game on New England’s schedule all year where they looked bad on paper and they won it. The rest of the league should be terrified to face this team once everyone is healthy and Brady is back.

BROWNS +6.5 over Ravens: Joe Flacco made roughly three good throws on Sunday and it felt like Baltimore only won because the Bills were so dead on offense. They’ll probably win again this week in the same fashion, but the Browns can keep it close. Josh McCown is less exciting, but he’s probably a better quarterback than Robert Griffin III at this point and Hue Jackson can run more conventional stuff with him under center. I don’t buy the Ravens as anything more than an average team and with Flacco’s struggles last week, the Browns can at least cover.

Bengals +3 over STEELERS: The Steelers won’t be able to dare the Bengals to run like they did with Washington on Monday and none of their corners are anywhere near reliable against A.J. Green. Of course, this also applies for the Bengals against Antonio Brown, but Cincinnati is better served to stop other facets of the Steelers’ attack than vice versa. This is the game of the week—there will be bad blood and lots of it from last year’s playoff game—but with Dalton at quarterback instead of A.J. McCarron, the Bengals should be able to pull through on the road.

Cowboys +3 over REDSKINS: Are we sure the Redskins are good? They didn’t beat a winning team last season and Jay Gruden got badly outcoached on Monday. They can’t run the ball in any way, shape or form and the defensive gameplan to beating them is out in the open after last week. Sure, they could change things up, but until Kirk Cousins can be consistent throwing the ball downfield, it’s not going to be easy. Dallas had an uncharacteristically bad game in run blocking against the Giants and Dak Prescott looked about the same as Cousins. The Cowboys can—and should—win this game outright.

GIANTS -4.5 over Saints: I went back and forth on this game, but settled on the Giants because even though their defense will probably be bad this season, it’s at least improved. The Saints looked exactly the same as last year on Sunday and Delvin Breaux got hurt. In what is likely to be a shootout, the Giants have a better chance to hold up than a Saints’ unit that is already 31^st in both DVOA and DAVE.

49ers +13.5 over PANTHERS: This is just too many points. There’s no other logic to this pick outside of it being too early in the year to take a team favored by nearly two touchdowns. FiveThirtyEight’s Elo spread has this game at nine points which seems more reasonable for a game in Week 2.

CARDINALS -6.5 over Buccaneers: This line is a result of an overreaction to Week 1. The Cardinals played badly and lost a game they should have won. That’s not the first time this has happened in the past few years. Justin Bethel should take Brandon Williams’ snaps at corner and the passing game can settle in against a Bucs secondary that was 26^th in pass defense DVOA last season. The Cardinals were 3-0 last season after a loss and they should easily cover here.

RAMS +3.5 over Seahawks: Seattle is traditionally a slow starting team and looks to be slow out of the gate again this year. The Rams usually play them close and this may be the only game all season during which the Coliseum is full and enthusiastically supporting the home team. Case Keenum can’t possibly be that bad again (assuming he starts) and nobody is better at delivering an encouraging loss than Jeff Fisher. If this line moves to three, I’ll flip but for now I like the Rams as home dogs.

BRONCOS -6 over Colts: Until the gambling public realizes that the Colts aren’t good, fade the hell out of them. Do the opposite with Denver. Andrew Luck is the only reason this team isn’t in danger of going 0-16; Denver can run the ball down their throats and Trevor Siemian was surprisingly competent on Thursday night. Defensively, the Broncos will get to Luck like a shark to blood. This has all the makings of a blowout.

RAIDERS -4.5 over Falcons: Atlanta’s defense might be terrible. Giving up 31 points in Week 1 at home against Tampa is deplorable and they’re facing a much better offense this week in Oakland. The biggest factor in this game will be whether or not Sean Smith’s terrible debut as a Raider was a fluke. He was terrible last week, posting a 40.3 PFF grade and giving up a 98-yard score to Brandin Cooks. Julio Jones is a tougher matchup and Smith needs to prove he’s worth the 4-year, $38 million contract Oakland gave him this offseason.

Jaguars +3 over CHARGERS: At home last season, the Chargers were 2-6-0 against the spread, per Team Rankings. This is already shaping up to be a year from hell for San Diego and I can’t see their home record improving with the referendum on building a new stadium looming. Without Keenan Allen, there’s nobody for Rivers to throw to and Jacksonville’s defense is a legitimately good unit[1]. They should win this game outright.

VIKINGS +2.5 over Packers: Don’t sleep on Minnesota with Sam Bradford. It’s pretty unlikely he’s worse than Bridgewater was last season and now he should be fully acclimated to Minnesota’s offense. The Vikings are at home, opening up their new stadium, and their defense played well against Green Bay last season. The Packers’ scheme hasn’t changed from last season, when it actively hurt their chances of winning. Even with Aaron Rodgers doing insane Aaron Rodgers things, the Vikings should be able to contain their offense enough to at least cover.

BEARS -3 over Eagles: It’s time to slow down the Carson Wentz bandwagon, or better yet, bring it to a halt. He played well on Sunday, but playing well against the Browns is the bare minimum an NFL quarterback can do. Assuming Kyle Fuller plays, the Bears are a much better test for the rookie and I think he’ll fail.

Last Week: 8-8-0

Season: 8-8-0

All stats are from pro-footballl-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] I’m surprised Myles Jack didn’t get on the field more in Week 1 though. It’s a bad sign for either his health, his play or both.

Week 1 Preview: The Post-Peyton Dilfer Zone

Last season, I centered my Week 1 Preview on the Dilfer Zone—the tier of quarterbacks that are just good enough to win a Super Bowl with. I reasoned that to win a Super Bowl, a quarterback couldn’t hurt his team’s chances of winning in a given week. Alex Smith, who doesn’t help or hurt the Chiefs, was the prototype but Blake Bortles, who throws lots of interceptions, didn’t meet the bar. Then the Broncos won the Super Bowl with Peyton Manning as their quarterback.

It feels weird to write this in reference to Peyton Manning, but the 2015 Broncos featured the worst quarterback to ever win a Super Bowl. There have been lots of Dilfer Zone quarterbacks to win it before—Earl Morrall, Bob Griese, Mark Rypien, Jeff Hoestetler, Trent Dilfer, Tom Brady[1], Brad Johnson, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco—but none as bad as Peyton Manning was last year. Manning had 17 interceptions in just 10 games, ranking second-to-last in interceptable pass rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting. The Broncos were just the third team ever to win at least five games while starting a quarterback with two or less AV[2]. In doing so, they proved my definition of a Dilfer Zone quarterback to be wrong.

This year, the Dilfer Zone consists of three levels. Level 1 is for the players like Manning, who hurt the team’s chances of winning but not enough to stop it from doing so. This group can only win a Super Bowl with a historically great defense like the 2015 Broncos. Level 2 is for the players who neither help nor hurt a team’s chances. They may have some flaws, but can be lifted up by teammates. With good coaching, good defense and good skill positions, these guys can win you a title. Level 3 is made up of the quarterbacks that will help you win a title but don’t make you automatic contenders. You still need a good supporting cast, but you won’t think twice about the quarterback position.

Without further ado, here is your 2016 Dilfer Zone.

Level 1

Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill has been greatly damaged by his supporting casts over the first four years of his career. Miami’s receiving corps has never clicked and they haven’t had a good coach in years, but Tannehill is far from the biggest problem. He had a passable 78.9 PFF grade last year and eight of his 12 interceptions weren’t his fault, per Cian Fahey’s charting. If Adam Gase turns out to be a decent head coach, there’s no reason Tannehill shouldn’t move up a level by the end of the year.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: Fitzpatrick is the prototype for an L1 Dilfer Zone QB. His supporting cast made him look good for most of last year despite a poor 3.5 percent DVOA and 72 percent accuracy rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting. The Jets were able to go 10-6 with Fitz, but with a better quarterback they would have likely made the playoffs as his poor decisions cost them games against Buffalo, Philadelphia and arguably Houston.

Matthew Stafford: Stafford has talent, but stats often overstate it as coaching and receiving talent have helped him immensely. He threw for 1,427 yards of simple YAC last season and averaged a pedestrian 25.7 throws per interceptable pass, per Cian Fahey’s charting. His 4,262 passing yards should come with a credit to Jim Bob Cooter, Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate as all three played a big hand in Stafford getting there. Nonetheless, the Lions have made the playoffs twice with Stafford and with the right team surrounding him; they could make it well past the first round.

Jameis Winston: Winston should move up at least one level this year but right now his decision-making is too much of a question mark. His 71.9 percent accuracy rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting, should improve with age but that number is too low for the NFL. These issues were apparent at Florida State and have yet to improve. Once they do, Winston will be a star but until then he’s a barrier to the Bucs getting anywhere.

Blake Bortles: Bortles made strides last season but, like Winston, poor decision-making hangs over all of the positives. He threw more interceptable passes (30) than all but two quarterbacks last season, per Cian Fahey’s charting, and regularly displayed poor accuracy. Despite better receivers, his completion percentage actually dropped by 0.3 percent, further indicating how bad this flaw is. Whether or not the Jaguars can be a playoff team this year largely hinges on whether or not Bortles can make things a little easier for his supporting cast.

Brock Osweiler: I’m including Osweiler here solely because he outplayed Peyton Manning last year. There’s no reason he couldn’t have done what Manning did in the playoffs last year if given the chance, putting squarely in this tier.

Sam Bradford: Lost in all of the noise over Bradford being traded to Minnesota is the fact that he was pretty good for the second half of last year. He finished with an 81.5 PFF grade, just outside the top-10 and his 44.3 interceptable pass rate was second in the league, per Cian Fahey’s charting. The price was ridiculous, but the Vikings traded for him because he can do what Teddy Bridgewater did last season without much trouble. In 2015, Bradford’s completion percentage was 0.3 percent lower than Bridgewater’s. Bradford’s passer rating was 2.3 points lower and he averaged 0.2 less yards per attempt. Bradford was worse, but only by an extremely thin margin.

Level 2

Kirk Cousins:  Cousins was helped a lot by scheme and supporting cast last season, but the shift from Washington’s bad quarterback medley in years past was apparent to any viewer. Cousins could hit the easy throws Jay Gruden’s scheme needed from him while avoiding interceptions. Sure, it helped that the NFC East was a dumpster fire, but if someone is capable of completing 69.8 percent of passes, as Cousins did last year, then you can contend with that person at quarterback. Whether or not Cousins can play at a higher level, especially if the scheme gets tougher, is another story but last season proved that you can win with him and not in spite of him.

Tyrod Taylor: Of all the reasons the Bills disappointed last year, Tyrod Taylor somehow didn’t make the list. The former back-up made the Pro Bowl, ranking top-10 in QBR, DVOA and PFF grading. He showed a surprising proficiency for deep balls and turnovers simply weren’t an issue. Taylor had just a 1.6 percent interception rate and was top-10 in interceptable pass rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting. If the Bills falter this season, it won’t have much to do with him.

Alex Smith: I gave Smith as the prototypical Dilfer Zone quarterback because there is nobody in football, maybe even all of sports, who is more neutral to a team’s chances than Alex Smith. He won’t hit big plays or lead miraculous comebacks, but on the flipside he never throws the game away. It’s annoying at times, but the Chiefs will almost never lose a game because of Alex Smith. They won’t win games because of him either, but such is the life of a team with a Dilfer Zone quarterback.

Derek Carr: It wouldn’t be all that surprising if Carr moved up a level or out of the Dilfer Zone entirely by the end of the year. His talent is off the charts and virtually every statistical category made a leap from Year 1 to Year 2. With a good team around him, it won’t be long before Carr’s mettle is tested in the postseason, where he can show the world whether or not he can make another leap, this one landing in the realm of superstardom.

Joe Flacco: Coming off an injury, Flacco is a bit of a question mark this year but his record suggests he should be fine. His place here is pretty self-explanatory given the Ravens have been Super Bowl contenders—and winners—throughout Flacco’s career by building strong teams around him,

Matt Ryan: There was a point when Matt Ryan might have been at Level 3, but his play has slipped in the last few years. After Week 5 of last year, when Atlanta’s bubble burst, Ryan threw 12 picks compared to 15 touchdowns and he ranked just 19^th in DYAR on the year. Ryan wasn’t hurting the Falcons’ chances—he was fourth in accuracy rating per Cian Fahey’s charting—but he wasn’t elevating teammates either. He had a massive overreliance on Julio Jones—although it was partly because the rest of their receiving corps was terrible—and a negative DVOA.

Marcus Mariota: The Titans don’t have anything close to the infrastructure to win regardless of quarterback, but Mariota had as good a rookie year as you could have asked for. He was middle of the road in accuracy percentage and interceptable pass rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting, and looked really impressive in some games. He won’t get any help from the coaching staff this year, but a year out it looks like he was the most talented quarterback of the 2015 Draft.

Level 3

Eli Manning: Two years ago, Manning would have been a Level 1 QB if he was in the Dilfer Zone at all. However, since Ben McAdoo has come in, Manning’s interceptions have nearly been cut in half and his completion percentage and adjusted net yards per attempt have shot up. McAdoo has given Manning’s career a second life as he’s thrown for over 4,400 yards in two straight years. Last season he made his first Pro Bowl since 2012 and was top-10 in accuracy rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting.

Philip Rivers: The Chargers were bad last season and will probably be bad this season, but that won’t have anything to do with Rivers. He was eighth in DYAR last season and fourth in interceptable pass rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting, throwing for 4,792 yards. He’s in the Dilfer Zone because the Chargers aren’t an automatic contender with him, but he’s undoubtedly elevated them every year he’s been the starter—even 2015’s 4-12 nightmare.

Andy Dalton: No quarterback had a bigger improvement last season than Dalton. He shot up from 23^rd to fifth in QBR, 25^th to second in DVOA and 22^nd to fourth in DYAR. His PFF grade went from 75.6 to 87.4, threw six more touchdowns in three less games and cut his interception rate in half. It was astounding to see it unfold as Dalton suddenly began to elevate his teammates instead of vice versa. There’s a chance last season was an outlier, but as of now we have to treat Dalton based off of what we saw from him in 2015.

Andrew Luck: Just like we have to treat Dalton based off of what we saw in 2015, we should do the same with Luck. In the seven games he played last season, Luck was really, really bad. He threw 12 interceptions and completed just 55.3 percent of passes. He made three straight Pro Bowls in the preceding seasons and was hurt in 2015, but that doesn’t mean we can wipe it off the map. There’s a solid chance that Luck is right back with the elite quarterbacks in a few weeks, but no one can put him in the same class as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers right now unless they’re completely ignoring last season.

With one day left to get in preseason over/unders and prop bets, I decided to give out some of my favorites as part of this column. Here they are.

Over/Unders

Panthers OVER 10.5 (-105): If this bet was phrased “Will the Panthers be at least five games worse than last season?” the odds for No would be -250. This team won’t go 15-1 again, but it gets Kelvin Benjamin back with Josh Norman being the only real loss. The NFC South is slightly better, but it would be a massive shock if any team other than Carolina was to win it. Unless you think a star cornerback is worth five wins, there really isn’t any reason to bet the under here.

Bengals OVER 9.5 (-115): I’m all-in on the Bengals this year. This team was second in offensive DVOA last season despite Dalton’s injury and has the chance to be a top-5 team on both sides of the ball this year. Andy Dalton turned a corner in 2015 and turned Cincy into one of the most efficient offenses in football as they ranked fourth in points per drive. I don’t expect them to slow down.

Broncos OVER 9.5 (+145): This seems like a massive overreaction to the retirement of a player who actively hurt Denver’s chances of winning last season. Trevor Siemian is a question mark, but he’s not worse than Peyton Manning was last year. Yes, the defense has lost some players and yes, it’s close to impossible to put together the type of run they had last year but that doesn’t mean this isn’t a playoff team.

Texans UNDER 8.5 (Even): I don’t think Brock Osweiler will be an improvement over Brian Hoyer and with the Colts and Jaguars both significantly improved; the Texans are the odd man out in the division. This team only made the postseason last year because somebody had to win the AFC South, but there’s an actual competition this year. They’ve made some improvements in getting Lamar Miller and drafting Will Fuller and Braxton Miller, but I don’t think that compares to what the Jaguars have done or Andrew Luck returning to the Colts. 

Jaguars OVER 7.5 (-125): I picked the Jaguars to win the division, which would presumably require at least seven wins. Their offense could be one of the most dynamic in football if the line can hold it together and the defense has reached a point where Gus Bradley should be able to make it into something. Jacksonville has playoff talent and I expect them to make use of it.

Patriots OVER 10.5 (-140): Do I have to write anything here? It’s the Patriots; of course they’ll win over 10.5 games.

Chargers UNDER 7.5 (Even): San Diego’s vote on whether or not to fund a new stadium for the Chargers is on Election Day. If the city votes No, and it looks like they will, the Chargers will play six of the most depressing games you’ve ever seen to round out the year. If you thought their home-field advantage was nonexistent last year, wait until then. This has all the ingredients for a 1995 Browns-esque year, which means misery, abound.

 

Prop Bets

All bets and lines are from sportsbook.ag

Mike Zimmer to win Coach of the Year (+900): This bet is based off of the premise that if the Vikings win the NFC North, Mike Zimmer will win Coach of the Year. The Bradford trade made me hesitate a little, but this is an award that’s usually driven by narrative. Mike Zimmer leading a Bridgewater-less Vikings team to a division title is a better story than Gus Bradley winning the AFC South with an 8-8 Jaguars team or Jack Del Rio getting Oakland a wild card when everyone expects him to do that. Right now, Minnesota is +400 to win the division and Mike Zimmer is +900 to win this award, making this one both a good value and a smart bet.

Chuck Pagano to be first coach fired (+1200): These odds are way too high given that Pagano and Ryan Grigson hate each other and Jim Irsay was inches away from cleaning house last season. If the Colts start out badly, and I think they will, Pagano will be gone like that. None of the coaches with shorter odds are particularly enticing either. Last year was the exception for Martha Ford firing coaches and executives in Detroit, if the Chargers are going to fire Mike McCoy they would have done it last year and the Rams’ front office seems to like Jeff Fisher for some reason. The only reason not to bet on Pagano is the Colts’ schedule[3]. Unless you think someone like Marvin Lewis, Sean Payton or Mike McCarthy may get the axe, there isn’t a better value on the board.

Ezekiel Elliot to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+110): Who else is going to win this award? Dak Prescott won’t start the whole year, Carson Wentz is severely underdeveloped and no skill position player will get half the opportunities that Elliot will. He’s running behind the best line in football on a team whose quarterback is hurt for the first half of the season. The Cowboys also spent the #4 pick on him because they felt he was the missing piece to their offense. Only four players have ever gotten 350 or more carries in their rookie season and all four won Offensive Rookie of the Year. Elliot is as close to a lock as they come.

Andy Dalton to win MVP (+7000): Purely from a value standpoint, this makes sense. 70/1 odds translates to a 1.41 percent probability and Dalton’s chances to win MVP are significantly higher than that. This is a player who got MVP buzz last year before he got injured and Cam Newton ran away with the award. If the Bengals win the AFC North and get a first-round bye, which they were on track to do last year before Dalton’s injury, the credit will fall at his feet. Throw in a Bengals’ receiving corps that many have called depleted and last year’s buzz will repeat itself. Dalton probably won’t win the award, but at 70/1, he’s a damn good value.

Bengals to win Super Bowl LI (+2000): Once again, I like this one as a value play. The Patriots are my actual pick to win it but at +750, there isn’t much point in betting on them this early[4], but I think the Bengals are the second-best team in the AFC. At 20/1, with New England a Rob Gronkowski injury away from disaster, this is your best option from a gambling perspective.

I’ve spent the last month previewing the divisions, but haven’t touched on playoff picks. Here are those picks.

Playoff Predictions

NFC Wild Card: Packers over Vikings, Seahawks over Giants[5]

AFC Wild Card: Chiefs over Broncos, Raiders over Jaguars

NFC Divisional Round: Cardinals over Packers, Seahawks over Panthers

AFC Divisional Round: Patriots over Raiders, Bengals over Chiefs[6]

NFC Championship Game: Cardinals over Seahawks

AFC Championship Game: Patriots over Bengals

Super Bowl LI: Patriots over Cardinals

Finally, here are this week’s picks. All lines are the VI consensus from Vegas Insiders and home teams are listed in CAPS.

Week 1 Picks

BRONCOS +3 over Panthers: In FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Elo ratings, out earlier today, Denver has the highest chance to win the title of any team in football. I don’t agree with that, but I do think this team is severely underrated. Expect a win to start the year as the Panthers continue to struggle against the Broncos’ star-studded defense.

Buccaneers +3 over FALCONS: Before the Vikings traded for Sam Bradford, I strongly considered the Bucs to take their playoff spot. If Jameis can cut down on his turnovers, this team could impress some people. This week, they’ll have a clear advantage in the run game and Robert Ayers will get on the board with a few sacks given his favorable matchup against left tackle Jake Matthews. With Atlanta having a fairly shallow receiving corps, I can’t see them being able to take much advantage of Tampa’s lackluster secondary and the Bucs should be able to at least keep it close.

TITANS +2.5 over Vikings: I’ll regret this pick as soon as I see Mike Mularkey roaming the sideline, but Sam Bradford hasn’t learned Minnesota’s system yet. If Mike Zimmer opts to play Shaun Hill, he’s actively putting the team at a disadvantage so this really is a choice between the lesser of two evils. With that in mind, this game has all the right ingredients for an upset.

Browns +4 over EAGLES: The highest level of football Carson Wentz has ever played at is the FCS title game against Jacksonville State. He barely played in preseason and was slated to be the #3 quarterback on this team before the Bradford trade. In making him the starter, the Eagles have done the impossible and made the Browns’ QB situation look good by comparison. With Cleveland getting points, you can lock this one up[7].

Bengals -2.5 over JETS: If you can’t tell from the earlier parts of this column, I like the Bengals this year. The Jets will have a tough time moving the ball against a Cincinnati defense that was top-10 in both run and pass defense DVOA. On the other side of the ball, I don’t trust the Jets’ secondary, especially with Darrelle Revis’ play in decline. Shutting down A.J. Green may be a task too tall for Todd Bowles’ crew.

Raiders +1 over SAINTS: This is one of the most fun games on the slate this week as both teams will air it out. I’m taking the Raiders because I find their secondary more reliable after they signed Reggie Nelson and Sean Smith in free agency and drafted Karl Joseph. However, this will be a shootout so the better bet may be the over.

CHIEFS -6.5 over Chargers: San Diego was 31^st in run defense DVOA last season while the Chiefs were first in rushing offense DVOA. On a similar note, Spencer Ware’s two best games of 2015 by yards per attempt were both against the Chargers. Even without Jamaal Charles, there’s no reason to think that the Chiefs won’t be able to run the ball at will here. They haven’t lost to the Chargers since December, 29, 2013 and I don’t think that streak comes close to ending this week.

RAVENS -3 over Bills: As one team regains health, another team loses it. The Ravens were decimated by injuries last season and their year ended in a 5-11 dumpster fire. However, they’re healthy now and their bad injury juju has seemingly transferred to Buffalo. The Bills have already suffered numerous big injuries on their defense and to add to the misery, Marcel Dareus is suspended for four games. With the Ryan brothers involved, neither of whom seems to be anything more than bad coaches, this year could be a disaster for the Bills and that disaster will start on Sunday.

 Bears +6 over TEXANS: With J.J. Watt playing hurt, I don’t think the Texans will be able to fully exploit Chicago’s questionable offensive line. If Jay Cutler can carry over his strong play from last season with new coordinator Dowell Loggains, Chicago’s offense looks pretty good, especially against a potentially poor Houston secondary. The Texans will be able to run the ball, but I’m not a very big fan of Brock Osweiler and there isn’t much reason Chicago can’t at least keep it close.

JAGUARS +5.5 over Packers: This is just too many points. The Packers shouldn’t be favored by 5.5 on the road against a team with a good secondary after what we saw from their receivers last year. Davon House, Prince Amukamara and first rounder Jalen Ramsey make up a formidable cornerback group in Jacksonville and although Jordy Nelson will help, he may be the only Packers’ receiver able to get open. I like Green Bay to win straight-up, but their passing game, particularly Mike McCarthy’s scheme, make it tough for them to cover.

SEAHAWKS -10.5 over Dolphins: There might not be a single matchup not involving Ndamukong Suh that looks favorable for the Dolphins in this game. The biggest thing to look for is DeShawn Shead, the corner who will try to fill the spot opposite Richard Sherman for Seattle. Shead played in that role for part of last season, but wasn’t particularly impressive. It won’t matter much this week, but if Seattle can’t figure out this position, it will be the first place opponents target come January.

Giants over COWBOYS (pick’em): I have trouble picking the Cowboys straight-up in Dak Prescott’s NFL debut. They’ll be able to run the ball, but handing it off 40 times isn’t a very efficient way to try and win in today’s NFL. If they’re down early, I don’t trust Prescott to bring them back and the newly revamped front four will give him a lot of trouble if they can get past Dallas’ offensive line.

Lions +3.5 over COLTS: This line is ½ point too high as these teams are very similar outside of preseason expectations. Both have poor defenses outside of a few players, no running game, unreliable offensive lines and bad coaches. With Darius Slay covering T.Y. Hilton, it will be tough for Indy to get much traction on offense while Matthew Stafford can take advantage of Detroit’s deep receiving corps to stretch out the Colts’ middling secondary. If Andrew Luck really is the same player that took the Colts to the AFC Championship Game in 2014, the Colts should win this game but even then I don’t think they can cover.

CARDINALS -6 over Patriots: The NFL robbed us of one of the best matchups of the season by scheduling this game in Week 1 instead of any time after Week 5. Instead of seeing the two best-coached teams in football go at it at full strength, we get Jimmy Garoppolo making his first ever start against one of the best defenses in football. This could get ugly real fast.

Steelers -3 over REDSKINS: This is quietly one of the most fascinating matchups of the week. I have lots of questions about both teams, particularly in pass defense, and I think we’ll get swift answers to those questions one way or another. If Kirk Cousins doesn’t slow down after the second half of last year, the Redskins will keep it close but I don’t see them being within three. Their run defense is suspect—it was 22^nd in DVOA last year—and their secondary problems outweigh Pittsburgh’s for me.

Rams -2.5 over 49ERS: Gabbert! Keenum! Berman! It’s Monday Night Football on ESPN!

Last Year: 112-135-9

This Year: 0-0-0

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise necessary

 

[1] This only applies for Super Bowl XXXVI, not the other three titles Brady has won.

[2] The other two were the 2005 Bears (Kyle Orton) and the 1971 Vikings (Gary Cuozzo).

[3] Their first four games are against Detroit, Denver on the road, San Diego and Jacksonville. Any of those could go either way.

[4] If you want to bet New England, wait until after this week when they get blown out by Arizona. That’s when their odds will be the highest.

[5] I originally had the Cowboys winning the NFC East but  after the Romo injury, my pick changed to the Giants

[6] Yes, this game will involve a horrible clock management gaffe from Andy Reid. It wouldn’t be a Chiefs playoff loss without one.

[7] When was the last time someone wrote that? At least the 1980’s, right?

2016 NFL Preview: Kansas City Chiefs

Preseason is over! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to win the AFC West, the Kansas City Chiefs.

For three straight years, the Chiefs have finished second in the AFC West, making the playoffs in two of those years—both with 11-5 records—and winning just won playoff game. This season is their best shot to win the division in the Andy Reid Era. The Broncos are coming down from the high of Super Bowl victory and the Raiders are still a year away from being title contenders. On top of that, the Chiefs have a schedule that ranks 24^th in difficulty according to Football Outsiders. This is their chance and I think they’ll capitalize.

Kansas City was third in weighted offensive DVOA last year with Jamaal Charles missing most of the season. That’s a big reflection on Andy Reid’s abilities outside of clock management and on Alex Smith. Smith is still immensely frustrating to watch thanks to his ultra-conservative tendencies on third down, but he was on the high end of the Dilfer Zone last season. Smith was top-10 in QBR, 15^th in DVOA and 11^th in accuracy percentage, per Cian Fahey’s charting. Smith’s conservatism also paid off in his low interception total of seven. With a better supporting cast this year, assuming Charles’ health, the Chiefs are just fine with Smith at the helm.

Charles played just five games last year, but continued an astounding career-long streak of averaging at least five yards per carry. He’ll cross over the age-30 threshold this year and has dealt with numerous injuries; most of them pretty serious, but it’s pretty tough to imagine Jamaal Charles struggling. When healthy, he’s been the most consistent running back in the league. Even if Charles does slow down, the Chiefs’ run game is still pretty good. They were first in rushing offense DVOA last season when Charles played just five games. Spencer Ware impressed, averaging 5.6 yards per carry in a limited sample size, and Charcandrick West was adequate, putting up a 2.8 percent DVOA.

The Chiefs’ receiving corps was quietly solid last year. Jeremy Maclin had 1,088 receiving yards, ranking top-25 in DVOA, DYAR and PFF grading. He gave this offense the #1 receiver it so badly lacked two years ago, even if it was frustrating that Smith didn’t hit him vertically more often. Tight end Travis Kelce racked up 72 catches for 875 yards, yet it still seemed like there was something left at the table. I’d like to see Andy Reid use Kelce the way New England uses Rob Gronkowski—unleashing him down the seam or isolating him—more often instead of throwing him screens and relying on yards after the catch. Smith’s #3 target is a question mark as Albert Wilson failed to make much of an impression last season, but Maclin and Kelce alone make this group better than the one KC took to the playoffs in 2013[1].

In the trenches, the Chiefs were a great run blocking team last season but an awful pass blocking team. By signing Mitchell Schwartz, they bolstered the former and provided a massive help to the latter. Schwartz was PFF’s seventh-best tackle last season and had an 86.8 pass blocking grade. Given that right tackle Jah Reid was the source of 11.5 blown blocks in protection last season, per Football Outsiders, Schwartz provides much-needed stability at the position. Despite that, there will likely be struggles in pass blocking. At guard, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif had a 60.5 pass blocking grade from PFF and allowed five sacks, per FO. It looks like fourth-round pick Parker Ehinger will be start at left guard and it’s tough to expect a mid-round rookie to make huge contributions. Mitch Morse was a solid center last year, has a lot of room for improvement, especially in pass blocking. Former #1 overall pick Eric Fisher improved last year, but that was a pretty low bar to clear. He still averaged 57.0 snaps per blown block, the 10^th-worst mark among tackles according to Football Outsiders. The run blocking will likely be pretty good—it’s been top-10 every year since Andy Reid has become the head coach—but expect Alex Smith to face a lot of pressure again.

Defensively, the Chiefs were a powerhouse last season as they were second in weighted DVOA and sixth in overall DVOA. With the loss of Sean Smith and Justin Houston set to miss at least the first six games, it’s unlikely they’re that good again, but don’t underestimate this unit.

Between Dontari Poe, Jaye Howard and Allen Bailey, there isn’t a star on the defensive line, but there also isn’t a hole. Poe draws double-teams regularly and picked up a 78.2 PFF grade last season while Howard was the best pass rusher of the group, posting 5.5 sacks, six hits and 12 hurries, per Football Outsiders. Bailey contributed with a 76.8 PFF grade, solidifying a line that was top-10 in adjusted line yards and second in power success last year.

KC was also fourth in adjusted sack rate and fifth in pressure rate, per FO, but most of that came from the linebacker position. We don’t know how much time Justin Houston is going to miss, just that it will be at least six games, but the Chiefs will sorely miss his production. Houston was the fourth-best edge rusher in football last season by PFF grading, putting up 7.5 sacks, five hits and 23 hurries in 11 games according to Football Outsiders. Even though Dee Ford was a good run defender last season, he won’t be anything close to Houston as a pass rusher. In Tamba Hali, the Chiefs have another great edge rusher, but if Houston misses much more than the six games we already know about, finishingtop-10 in adjusted sack rate becomes a monumental task.

On the inside, Derrick Johnson was quietly one of the best linebackers in football last year. He had an 89.2 PFF grade, sixth among linebackers, and was top-15 at the position in both success rate and adjusted yards per target. Next to him, there’s a huge question mark after Josh Mauga was placed on IR earlier this week. It looks like Justin March-Lillard is the frontrunner to start, but the lack of depth at this position is genuinely concerning.

In the secondary, the Chiefs are top-heavy. Marcus Peters and Eric Berry are both stars, but the lack of depth is worrisome. After Sean Smith signed with Oakland, KC is left with Phillip Gaines playing on the outside which is worrisome given that Gaines played just three games last season. Third round pick KeiVarae Russell and Steven Nelson will both see time at nickel, but if Russell isn’t getting the majority of snaps pretty soon, it’s a bad sign. Next to Berry, Ron Parker is serviceable by PFF grading but the 49 percent success rate attached to him by Football Outsiders is worrisome.

Nonetheless, the Chiefs are the best team in this division by a pretty good margin. Andy Reid is such a bad playoff coach that people have forgotten how good of a regular season coach he is. If not for the Panthers going 15-1, Reid would have won Coach of the Year last season before bumbling his way through the playoff game against New England. As long as you don’t have to run a 2-minute drill, he’s one of the best coaches in football. With the rest of the division in transition, this is Kansas City’s to win.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] The 2013 Chiefs’ leaders in receiving yards, in descending order: Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Donnie Avery, Dexter McCluster, Sean McGrath, Anthony Fasano, Anthony Sherman, A.J. Jenkins, Junior Hemingway, Knile Davis, Cyrus Gray, Kevin Brock, Chad Hall, Richard Gordon. There are college teams with a better receiving corps.

2016 NFL Preview: Oakland Raiders

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish second in the AFC West, the Oakland Raiders.

This is the year the Oakland Raiders will play their first playoff game since Super Bowl XXXVII. Reggie McKenzie has built on a strong, young core by pushing all the right buttons in free agency. He’s built the Raiders into a real contender and the results of his work will show this season.

The biggest move McKenzie has made as Oakland’s general manager is taking Derek Carr in second round of the 2014 Draft. There are questions about whether or not Carr can be a superstar, but at this point it’s more than clear that he’s in the Dilfer Zone. In just his second year in the league, Carr was 13^th among QBs in DVOA, 12^th in DYAR and 10^th in PFF grading. He threw for 3,763 yards and had a 31.8 interceptable pass rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting. Throw in another year of development—both for Carr and the offense around him—and things look even better.

While most of McKenzie’s free agent maneuvering came on defense, he also added to the offensive line by signing Kelechi Osemele. This vaults Oakland’s offensive line from top-5 to top-2, with real potential to overtake the Cowboys for the top spot. In 2015, the Raiders were third in pressure rate, fourth in adjusted sack rate, sixth in stuff rate and seventh in power success according to Football Outsiders. In Osemele, they’ve added one of the best guards in the league, someone who didn’t blow a single block in protection last season according to Football Outsiders. At the other guard spot, Gabe Jackson is coming off a breakout season in which he was 13^th at the position in PFF grading. At center Rodney Hudson shores up the interior. In 2015, Hudson was sixth among centers in PFF grading and first in pass block grading. According to Football Outsiders’ game charting, he blew just 3.5 blocks all season. At tackle, both Donald Penn and Austin Howard were top-20 by PFF grading. Penn is the closest thing to a question mark on this line due to his age, but it’s tough to argue with an 84.5 PFF grade. Howard could see a similar breakout to Jackson in 2015. He moved back to tackle last season after playing guard in 2014 and his PFF grades reflected the positive change. Now that he’s surrounded by insane talent, expect those grades to go up further.

Oakland’s receiving corps is primed for a jump this year after being inconsistent in 2015. Amari Cooper will benefit from good health and a year of experience to become a true superstar after putting up 1,070 receiving yards in his rookie season. Michael Crabtree exceeded expectations last season when he posted a 58 percent catch rate along with 922 yards and nine TDs. I’d expect him to slow down a little, but Crabtree remains a solid piece of this offense. There are some questions about depth as Seth Roberts and Clive Walford, both fairly unproven, come in as the likely #3 receiver and tight end. There are good signs for both—Roberts had a 13.3 percent DVOA on 55 targets and Walford looked pretty good in the 50 targets he had, but neither of those samples are large enough to warrant any real conclusions.

The biggest question on this offense is the running game as Latavius Murray heads into a make-it-or-break-it season. Murray may have been the only player on the team who failed to meet expectations last year as he posted an awful 39 percent success rate and went for a pedestrian 4.0 yards per carry. The offensive line will make things easier for him and it seems like DeAndre Washington has something to offer as well, but things here are far from certain.

On defense, the Raiders could be top-10 in DVOA if things go well. Dan Williams excelled at nose tackle last season, posting a 90.0 PFF grade in run defense and an 82 percent stop rate per Football Outsiders. At end, Mario Edwards is only 22 and posted a solid 80.9 PFF grade last season. Once he returns from a hip injury, he’ll be a big piece to this defense. Opposite him, Denico Autry had 20 hurries last season according to FO and can make a lot of noise as a pass rusher this season.

Khalil Mack was an All-Pro last season and deservedly so. The then-second year edge rusher had 15 sacks, 11 hits and 29.5 hurries, per FO, along with a 95.6 PFF grade, the highest at the position. Mack is only 25 and he’s already among the best defenders in the league. McKenzie added another star outside linebacker in Bruce Irvin over the offseason. Irvin was top-5 among LBs in run stop rate last season and top-10 in average depth of run tackles according to Football Outsiders. There are questions at inside linebacker as neither Malcolm Smith nor Ben Heeney look all that great. Smith had a poor 44 percent success rate in coverage, per FO, along with a paltry 58.6 PFF grade last season. Heeney played just 307 snaps in 2015 but a 64.4 PFF grade doesn’t bode well.

The secondary is where McKenzie made the biggest impact over the offseason. He brought in a new starting duo at safety, signed Reggie Nelson and drafted Karl Joseph in the first round. Nelson is 33 but coming off a season in which he led the league in interceptions and allowed just 6.5 adjusted yards per target. Joseph, a rookie, is on the other side of the spectrum in age and should be a solid player if he can come back strong from the ACL tear that ended his 2015 season early. McKenzie also signed Sean Smith to be the Raiders’ top corner. This gives them two of 2015’s top-15 cornerbacks by PFF grading. Both Smith and David Amerson were also top-20 among corners in adjusted yards per target last season according to FO. Nickel corner is a question mark as neither D.J. Hayden nor T.J. Carrie were starting-caliber NFL players last season. However, the rest of the secondary is good enough that it could make up for the deficiency.

With big improvements on both sides of the ball, the Raiders can be a playoff team in a stacked AFC West. What may be their last season in Oakland will be their best in a long time.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted