Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish second in the AFC West, the Oakland Raiders.
This is the year the Oakland Raiders will play their first playoff game since Super Bowl XXXVII. Reggie McKenzie has built on a strong, young core by pushing all the right buttons in free agency. He’s built the Raiders into a real contender and the results of his work will show this season.
The biggest move McKenzie has made as Oakland’s general manager is taking Derek Carr in second round of the 2014 Draft. There are questions about whether or not Carr can be a superstar, but at this point it’s more than clear that he’s in the Dilfer Zone. In just his second year in the league, Carr was 13th among QBs in DVOA, 12th in DYAR and 10th in PFF grading. He threw for 3,763 yards and had a 31.8 interceptable pass rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting. Throw in another year of development—both for Carr and the offense around him—and things look even better.
While most of McKenzie’s free agent maneuvering came on defense, he also added to the offensive line by signing Kelechi Osemele. This vaults Oakland’s offensive line from top-5 to top-2, with real potential to overtake the Cowboys for the top spot. In 2015, the Raiders were third in pressure rate, fourth in adjusted sack rate, sixth in stuff rate and seventh in power success according to Football Outsiders. In Osemele, they’ve added one of the best guards in the league, someone who didn’t blow a single block in protection last season according to Football Outsiders. At the other guard spot, Gabe Jackson is coming off a breakout season in which he was 13th at the position in PFF grading. At center Rodney Hudson shores up the interior. In 2015, Hudson was sixth among centers in PFF grading and first in pass block grading. According to Football Outsiders’ game charting, he blew just 3.5 blocks all season. At tackle, both Donald Penn and Austin Howard were top-20 by PFF grading. Penn is the closest thing to a question mark on this line due to his age, but it’s tough to argue with an 84.5 PFF grade. Howard could see a similar breakout to Jackson in 2015. He moved back to tackle last season after playing guard in 2014 and his PFF grades reflected the positive change. Now that he’s surrounded by insane talent, expect those grades to go up further.
Oakland’s receiving corps is primed for a jump this year after being inconsistent in 2015. Amari Cooper will benefit from good health and a year of experience to become a true superstar after putting up 1,070 receiving yards in his rookie season. Michael Crabtree exceeded expectations last season when he posted a 58 percent catch rate along with 922 yards and nine TDs. I’d expect him to slow down a little, but Crabtree remains a solid piece of this offense. There are some questions about depth as Seth Roberts and Clive Walford, both fairly unproven, come in as the likely #3 receiver and tight end. There are good signs for both—Roberts had a 13.3 percent DVOA on 55 targets and Walford looked pretty good in the 50 targets he had, but neither of those samples are large enough to warrant any real conclusions.
The biggest question on this offense is the running game as Latavius Murray heads into a make-it-or-break-it season. Murray may have been the only player on the team who failed to meet expectations last year as he posted an awful 39 percent success rate and went for a pedestrian 4.0 yards per carry. The offensive line will make things easier for him and it seems like DeAndre Washington has something to offer as well, but things here are far from certain.
On defense, the Raiders could be top-10 in DVOA if things go well. Dan Williams excelled at nose tackle last season, posting a 90.0 PFF grade in run defense and an 82 percent stop rate per Football Outsiders. At end, Mario Edwards is only 22 and posted a solid 80.9 PFF grade last season. Once he returns from a hip injury, he’ll be a big piece to this defense. Opposite him, Denico Autry had 20 hurries last season according to FO and can make a lot of noise as a pass rusher this season.
Khalil Mack was an All-Pro last season and deservedly so. The then-second year edge rusher had 15 sacks, 11 hits and 29.5 hurries, per FO, along with a 95.6 PFF grade, the highest at the position. Mack is only 25 and he’s already among the best defenders in the league. McKenzie added another star outside linebacker in Bruce Irvin over the offseason. Irvin was top-5 among LBs in run stop rate last season and top-10 in average depth of run tackles according to Football Outsiders. There are questions at inside linebacker as neither Malcolm Smith nor Ben Heeney look all that great. Smith had a poor 44 percent success rate in coverage, per FO, along with a paltry 58.6 PFF grade last season. Heeney played just 307 snaps in 2015 but a 64.4 PFF grade doesn’t bode well.
The secondary is where McKenzie made the biggest impact over the offseason. He brought in a new starting duo at safety, signed Reggie Nelson and drafted Karl Joseph in the first round. Nelson is 33 but coming off a season in which he led the league in interceptions and allowed just 6.5 adjusted yards per target. Joseph, a rookie, is on the other side of the spectrum in age and should be a solid player if he can come back strong from the ACL tear that ended his 2015 season early. McKenzie also signed Sean Smith to be the Raiders’ top corner. This gives them two of 2015’s top-15 cornerbacks by PFF grading. Both Smith and David Amerson were also top-20 among corners in adjusted yards per target last season according to FO. Nickel corner is a question mark as neither D.J. Hayden nor T.J. Carrie were starting-caliber NFL players last season. However, the rest of the secondary is good enough that it could make up for the deficiency.
With big improvements on both sides of the ball, the Raiders can be a playoff team in a stacked AFC West. What may be their last season in Oakland will be their best in a long time.
All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted
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