Preseason is over! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to win the AFC West, the Kansas City Chiefs.
For three straight years, the Chiefs have finished second in the AFC West, making the playoffs in two of those years—both with 11-5 records—and winning just won playoff game. This season is their best shot to win the division in the Andy Reid Era. The Broncos are coming down from the high of Super Bowl victory and the Raiders are still a year away from being title contenders. On top of that, the Chiefs have a schedule that ranks 24th in difficulty according to Football Outsiders. This is their chance and I think they’ll capitalize.
Kansas City was third in weighted offensive DVOA last year with Jamaal Charles missing most of the season. That’s a big reflection on Andy Reid’s abilities outside of clock management and on Alex Smith. Smith is still immensely frustrating to watch thanks to his ultra-conservative tendencies on third down, but he was on the high end of the Dilfer Zone last season. Smith was top-10 in QBR, 15th in DVOA and 11th in accuracy percentage, per Cian Fahey’s charting. Smith’s conservatism also paid off in his low interception total of seven. With a better supporting cast this year, assuming Charles’ health, the Chiefs are just fine with Smith at the helm.
Charles played just five games last year, but continued an astounding career-long streak of averaging at least five yards per carry. He’ll cross over the age-30 threshold this year and has dealt with numerous injuries; most of them pretty serious, but it’s pretty tough to imagine Jamaal Charles struggling. When healthy, he’s been the most consistent running back in the league. Even if Charles does slow down, the Chiefs’ run game is still pretty good. They were first in rushing offense DVOA last season when Charles played just five games. Spencer Ware impressed, averaging 5.6 yards per carry in a limited sample size, and Charcandrick West was adequate, putting up a 2.8 percent DVOA.
The Chiefs’ receiving corps was quietly solid last year. Jeremy Maclin had 1,088 receiving yards, ranking top-25 in DVOA, DYAR and PFF grading. He gave this offense the #1 receiver it so badly lacked two years ago, even if it was frustrating that Smith didn’t hit him vertically more often. Tight end Travis Kelce racked up 72 catches for 875 yards, yet it still seemed like there was something left at the table. I’d like to see Andy Reid use Kelce the way New England uses Rob Gronkowski—unleashing him down the seam or isolating him—more often instead of throwing him screens and relying on yards after the catch. Smith’s #3 target is a question mark as Albert Wilson failed to make much of an impression last season, but Maclin and Kelce alone make this group better than the one KC took to the playoffs in 2013[1].
In the trenches, the Chiefs were a great run blocking team last season but an awful pass blocking team. By signing Mitchell Schwartz, they bolstered the former and provided a massive help to the latter. Schwartz was PFF’s seventh-best tackle last season and had an 86.8 pass blocking grade. Given that right tackle Jah Reid was the source of 11.5 blown blocks in protection last season, per Football Outsiders, Schwartz provides much-needed stability at the position. Despite that, there will likely be struggles in pass blocking. At guard, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif had a 60.5 pass blocking grade from PFF and allowed five sacks, per FO. It looks like fourth-round pick Parker Ehinger will be start at left guard and it’s tough to expect a mid-round rookie to make huge contributions. Mitch Morse was a solid center last year, has a lot of room for improvement, especially in pass blocking. Former #1 overall pick Eric Fisher improved last year, but that was a pretty low bar to clear. He still averaged 57.0 snaps per blown block, the 10th-worst mark among tackles according to Football Outsiders. The run blocking will likely be pretty good—it’s been top-10 every year since Andy Reid has become the head coach—but expect Alex Smith to face a lot of pressure again.
Defensively, the Chiefs were a powerhouse last season as they were second in weighted DVOA and sixth in overall DVOA. With the loss of Sean Smith and Justin Houston set to miss at least the first six games, it’s unlikely they’re that good again, but don’t underestimate this unit.
Between Dontari Poe, Jaye Howard and Allen Bailey, there isn’t a star on the defensive line, but there also isn’t a hole. Poe draws double-teams regularly and picked up a 78.2 PFF grade last season while Howard was the best pass rusher of the group, posting 5.5 sacks, six hits and 12 hurries, per Football Outsiders. Bailey contributed with a 76.8 PFF grade, solidifying a line that was top-10 in adjusted line yards and second in power success last year.
KC was also fourth in adjusted sack rate and fifth in pressure rate, per FO, but most of that came from the linebacker position. We don’t know how much time Justin Houston is going to miss, just that it will be at least six games, but the Chiefs will sorely miss his production. Houston was the fourth-best edge rusher in football last season by PFF grading, putting up 7.5 sacks, five hits and 23 hurries in 11 games according to Football Outsiders. Even though Dee Ford was a good run defender last season, he won’t be anything close to Houston as a pass rusher. In Tamba Hali, the Chiefs have another great edge rusher, but if Houston misses much more than the six games we already know about, finishingtop-10 in adjusted sack rate becomes a monumental task.
On the inside, Derrick Johnson was quietly one of the best linebackers in football last year. He had an 89.2 PFF grade, sixth among linebackers, and was top-15 at the position in both success rate and adjusted yards per target. Next to him, there’s a huge question mark after Josh Mauga was placed on IR earlier this week. It looks like Justin March-Lillard is the frontrunner to start, but the lack of depth at this position is genuinely concerning.
In the secondary, the Chiefs are top-heavy. Marcus Peters and Eric Berry are both stars, but the lack of depth is worrisome. After Sean Smith signed with Oakland, KC is left with Phillip Gaines playing on the outside which is worrisome given that Gaines played just three games last season. Third round pick KeiVarae Russell and Steven Nelson will both see time at nickel, but if Russell isn’t getting the majority of snaps pretty soon, it’s a bad sign. Next to Berry, Ron Parker is serviceable by PFF grading but the 49 percent success rate attached to him by Football Outsiders is worrisome.
Nonetheless, the Chiefs are the best team in this division by a pretty good margin. Andy Reid is such a bad playoff coach that people have forgotten how good of a regular season coach he is. If not for the Panthers going 15-1, Reid would have won Coach of the Year last season before bumbling his way through the playoff game against New England. As long as you don’t have to run a 2-minute drill, he’s one of the best coaches in football. With the rest of the division in transition, this is Kansas City’s to win.
All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted
[1] The 2013 Chiefs’ leaders in receiving yards, in descending order: Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Donnie Avery, Dexter McCluster, Sean McGrath, Anthony Fasano, Anthony Sherman, A.J. Jenkins, Junior Hemingway, Knile Davis, Cyrus Gray, Kevin Brock, Chad Hall, Richard Gordon. There are college teams with a better receiving corps.
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