EthanSears.com

2016 NFL Preview: New England Patriots

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to win the AFC East, the New England Patriots.

On February 5, 2017 the Patriots are going to win their fifth Super Bowl. Today—August 21, 2016—it looks like the Patriots are shaping up to come up short this season. Tom Brady is suspended for four games; games that could determine playoff seeding or home field advantage come January. Just today, it was reported that right tackle Sebastian Vollmer will miss the season and that running back Dion Lewis will have another surgery on his knee and miss an indefinite amount of time. It’s easy to look at that and say that the Patriots simply can’t overcome it because they failed to do so last year when faced with injuries. But if you’re saying that, you’re forgetting that we’re talking about the New England Patriots.

The Patriots are as good coming into 2016 as they’ve been coming into any year in recent memory. Brady’s suspension shouldn’t worry anybody—Jimmy Garoppolo is capable of holding down the fort and letting an underrated defense and a great receiving corps carry New England for four weeks. The only game of those four that New England should chalk up as an automatic loss is Week 1 in Arizona. After that nationally televised game, and likely blowout, there will be panic about how the Patriots will survive the rest of Brady’s suspension. However, all of the next three games are at home and all three of them are against beatable teams: Houston, Buffalo and Miami. All New England has to do is go 2-2 though the first four weeks. Then Brady can do the rest.

Make no mistake, Tom Brady is the best of all-time and he’s nowhere near declining. Faced with a litany of injuries resulting in a makeshift offensive line all season and key players like Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman missing games late in the season, Brady dragged the Patriots within a failed two-point conversion of the AFC title last season. He led the league in touchdown passes, was second in DYAR and third in PFF grading. Now, at age 39, he gets four extra weeks of rest and can be driven by the image of Roger Goodell handing him the Lombardi Trophy after putting him through a two-year long legal sham that resulted in an undeserved suspension. Even at 39, we should be getting ready for one of Brady’s best seasons. He has more weapons than last season after the addition of Martellus Bennett, a healthier offensive line even after Vollmer’s injury and an extra motivator in Deflategate.

It’s easy to look at Dion Lewis’ injury and worry about New England’s lack of a run game but they’ve been playing without a reliable run game for as long as anyone can remember and it hasn’t hurt them at all. LeGarrette Blount is still capable after rushing for 4.3 yards per attempt last season and even though James White isn’t anything resembling Lewis as a pass-catcher[1], but he’s capable enough. There’s also a chance that Lewis comes back by the end of the season. As of now, we don’t know but if the Patriots thought there wasn’t a chance of him playing they would have put him on IR. If Lewis can be healthy by mid-December, the Patriots suddenly have a great receiver in the backfield to complement the rest of their passing game.

New England’s receivers are downright scary if they remain healthy. Julian Edelman was having a great 2015 before he got hurt. In just nine regular season games, he had 692 receiving yards with a 69 percent catch rate. He averaged 5.1 yards after the catch per Football Outsiders and has turned into a perfect partner for Brady, excelling with short and intermediate passes and quick throws that Brady loves to make. Danny Amendola is an oft-forgotten piece of this offense and will essentially be the #4 receiver this year with Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett at tight end, but he was very efficient last season, catching 75 percent of balls thrown his way.

Six years into his career, nobody has figured out how to guard Rob Gronkowski. Six years into his career, it doesn’t look like anyone ever will. When he lines up outside or gets man coverage against a linebacker, the defense might as well throw up a white flag before the ball is snapped. Martellus Bennett slots right into an offense that loved to use tight ends, using 12 personnel 43 percent of the time per Football Outsiders. That duo is going to be terrifying, particularly in the red zone where New England found success putting Gronkowski and Scott Chandler next to each other in formations last season.

If this offense has an issue, it’s up front, particularly after Vollmer was put on IR. However, the biggest issue for the Patriots last season wasn’t one or two injuries as much as it was a constant churn of injuries resulting in the Football Outsiders’ lowest offensive continuity score ever. While their offensive line isn’t particularly special when healthy, it’s a far cry from the five turnstiles that got wheeled up and down the field in Denver last January. Nate Solder missed most of last season and when he’s healthy, the Patriots have a solid left tackle. The same goes for center Bryan Stork, who played just eight games last year. At right guard, Josh Kline is solid, blowing just four blocks last season per Football Outsiders and Joe Thuney, Jonathan Cooper or Shaq Mason will contribute enough on the left to stop the position from being a problem. Right tackle will be an issue now that Vollmer’s hurt but the Patriots can manage even if they have to play Marcus Cannon. Tom Brady’s specialty is getting the ball out quickly—it takes a player of Von Miller’s caliber to truly disrupt him—so I have trouble seeing many issues in pass protection as long as the line isn’t at last year’s level of poor health.

Defensively, New England remains one of the better teams in football despite trading Chandler Jones in the offseason. Although they lost Jones’ pass rushing ability, they were able to get Terrance Knighton—one of the best run defenders in football. Knighton had a 92 percent run stop rate last season, per Football Outsiders, which is just absurd. He’ll slot right in next to second-year player Malcom Brown, a great run defender in the making. Brown posted an 80 percent run stop rate of his own last season according to Football Outsiders and is only going to get better. On the edge, Jabaal Sheard is perpetually underrated. He was seventh among edge rushers in PFF grading last season with an 88 percent run stop rate, eight sacks, five hits and 16.5 hurries per Football Outsiders. Rob Ninkovich is a solid contributor as well with a team-high 24.5 hurries last year per Football Outsiders and Chris Long will have a positive impact if healthy.

In Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins, the Patriots might have the best outside linebacker duo of any team that plays in a 4-3. Both players were top-10 among linebackers in PFF grading last season and can do anything you ask of them. Collins had 25 defeats and 58 stops last season while also ranking 10^th in success rate and 15^th in adjusted yards per target per Football Outsiders. Hightower ad an 88.3 run defense grade from PFF which he bested with a 92.7 pass rushing grade. Jonathan Freeny is certainly a question mark at middle linebacker after just a 47 percent success rate last season in coverage, per Football Outsiders, but the rest of the secondary is likely good enough to make up for it.

Neither Malcolm Butler nor Logan Ryan is a star at cornerback but both have turned into solid, reliable players which are more than Bill Belichick could have asked for in the wake of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner’s departures after the 2014 season. Both were top-25 among defensive backs in success rate, per Football Outsiders, and PFF grading last season. Nickel corner is a question mark as both Justin Coleman and E.J. Biggers had two AV last season, but Bill Belichick has a habit of making things work that you have to trust in, particularly for young guys like Coleman. At safety, it’s tough to find anything bad to say about Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty. The two ranked sixth and seventh in PFF grading at the position and eased any doubts Pats fans might have had about Belichick choosing to keep that tandem intact instead of keeping Revis two offseasons ago.

From top to bottom, the Patriots are the best team in football. Brady and Belichick are the best ever at their crafts, the receiving corps is among the best in the league and the defense has exceedingly few holes. Throw in the added motivation for Brady and the Patriots are well on their way to another Lombardi Trophy.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] If he was, New England probably would have won the AFC Championship Game last season.

2016 NFL Preview: New York Jets

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish second in the AFC East, the New York Jets.

As the season creeps closer, it gets tougher and tougher to see the Jets repeating last year’s 10-6 record and near miss of the postseason. The Jets should still be competitive in the AFC East—especially with Tom Brady suspended for four games—but things are going to be a lot tougher for them this season.

The biggest obstacle is the schedule, which is the second-toughest in the league by Football Outsiders’ projections. The first six weeks are like the last obstacle course in American Ninja Warrior—the one nobody ever beats; the Jets face the Bengals, travel to Buffalo on a Thursday, go to Kansas City, come back home against Seattle before a road trip to face the Steelers and Cardinals. That’s probably the toughest six weeks of any team in football and what makes it worse is that the Jets are the only team in the division that doesn’t face New England with Brady suspended. The schedule likely makes it impossible for them to get the necessary leg up on New England to win the division and the race for wild card spots in the AFC is going to be insane this season. The Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Bengals, Steelers, Ravens, Colts, Texans and Jaguars all have legitimate playoff cases this season. I don’t expect any AFC South team to nab a wild card but that doesn’t mean they won’t compete for one. The Jets didn’t face this type of competition last season; the AFC South was an utter disaster, the Ravens got hit with the injury bug and the Raiders weren’t ready to compete yet. At least one of these teams will probably suffer big injuries this season but there’s as much a chance it’s the Jets as anyone else.  For now, they have to assume they’ll be competing against all of these teams. That makes a playoff berth a tough ask especially given that it’s tough to expect the same season out of this team without taking the schedule into consideration.

Ryan Fitzpatrick was a Dilfer Zone quarterback last season but it’s certainly a question mark as to whether or not he can repeat that this year. As we saw in Week 17, he’s capable of sinking the team on any given week. Cian Fahey’s charting found him to have thrown 30 interceptable passes, the second-most of any quarterback in the league. His accuracy rate was just 72 percent by Fahey’s charting, 34^th in the league, and his 59.6 PFF grade was 30^th among quarterbacks. Fitzpatrick has good chemistry with Brandon Marshall and can do just enough that New York’s defense can get it over the hump but it’s tough to be confident with him under center. Last season, Jets fans were nervous about him and waited for the Other Shoe to drop all year. It took a while, but in the end, it did.

At running back, Matt Forte is a clear downgrade from Chris Ivory. Forte is one of the best running backs of the past decade but at age 30, it’s clear he’s in decline. Over the past two seasons combined, Forte averaged four yards per carry, a full half-yard less than the previous two years. He struggled to play through injury last year and took a shocking hit in the receiving game. In three less games, Forte had 389 receiving yards compared to 808 in 2014. This should be especially discouraging for the Jets as one of Forte’s biggest roles in an ideal world is to act as a safety valve for Fitzpatrick when he’s under pressure. If he isn’t able to do that, the Jets will get significantly less out of him, especially given that the offensive line has probably gotten worse.

D’Brickashaw Ferguson was far from the All-Pro he was in years past, but he was still a solid left tackle last season. After his retirement, the Jets picked up Ryan Clady off the scrap heap. If Clady is healthy, there’s a solid chance he can be what Ferguson was in 2015 but he’s had serious injuries in two of the last three seasons. This is worrisome given that Breno Giacomini is a liability at the other tackle spot. Giacomini had a 36.3 PFF grade last season, 64^th among tackles, and was called for eight penalties. If the Jets’ offensive line turns out to be manageable it will be because of the interior James Carpenter was solid last year and Nick Mangold is 32 but has remained a league average center. Brian Winters is a worry at right guard—the Jets were 29^th in adjusted line yards when running to the right tackle according to Football Outsiders—but he’s good enough in pass blocking that if everything else works out he won’t be a liability.

Wide receiver is a big position of strength for the Jets. Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker were the biggest reasons that Fitzpatrick was solid for most of last year as they made plays Fitzpatrick’s receivers in Houston and Buffalo could not. Marshall had a career year, leading the league in receiving touchdowns and putting up 1,502 receiving yards. He also had a mammoth 173 targets but caught 63 percent of them with 303 DYAR, 11^th among wide receivers. If not for Marshall’s 2015 and the chemistry he had with Fitzpatrick, there’s a solid chance the Jets would have rolled the dice with Geno Smith instead of signing Fitz as the clock struck midnight. Eric Decker enjoyed a nice resurgence after an anonymous 2014, catching 80 balls for over 1,000 receiving yards. He was just behind Marshall in DYAR with 278 and finished top-20 among wideouts in DVOA. The rest of the receiving corps will likely be an issue. Devin Smith is starting the year on the PUP and was a disappointment last season in the games he did play before tearing his ACL. The Jets essentially acted like the tight end position didn’t exist last season with Jace Amaro hurt. Now that he’s healthy, they may play less 10 personnel but they still have one of the worst tight end situations in football. The Jets were able to take advantage of a similar situation last season and will likely do the same in 2016.

Defensively, the Jets will likely remain one of the best teams in the league. A popular narrative right now is that Leonard Williams is set for a breakout year but the fact of the matter is that this is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Williams was already great in his rookie year, he just made his bones in run defense instead of as a pass rusher. Williams’ 17 defeats were the highest among rookies and his 86 percent stop rate was top-15 among defensive linemen throughout the league according to Football Outsiders. PFF gave him a 90.4 run defense grade and even though he had just three sacks, he had as many hits as star pass rusher Muhammad Wilkerson and 19 hurries according to Football Outsiders. Williams isn’t going to break out this year because he already broke out in his rookie season. The USC product is a star and the scary thing is that he isn’t even the best player on the Jets’ defensive line.

That title goes to Wilkerson, a Pro-Bowler last season after putting up 12 sacks, 17 hits and 30.5 hurries, per Football Outsiders. He was a star in run defense as he and Williams were the biggest cogs in a unit that led the league in adjusted line yards. Steve McLendon isn’t anything close to the player he replaces—Damon Harrison—but was a solid run defender last season in Pittsburgh.

At linebacker, there are some questions after Demario Davis, Calvin Pace and Quinton Coples all departed in the offseason. The Jets will rely on Darron Lee and Jordan Jenkins—two rookies—to make big contributions at the position. This is a tough strategy to advocate, not because Lee and Jenkins project badly but because it’s tough for rookies to make immediate impact on Day 1. On the inside, Erin Henderson is a good run defender and bad in coverage while David Harris is the exact opposite. Lorenzo Mauldin will probably see some snaps as a third down rusher and will probably be productive in those snaps. Last season, Mauldin had four sacks, eight hits and 14.5 hurries in 253 snaps per Football Outsiders.

In the secondary, any reports of Darrelle Revis’ demise are probably exaggerated. He’s not the player he was in 2009 but neither is anybody else. The Jets certainly benefitted from a likely-to-regress high turnover rate last season but that doesn’t mean the 31-year old Revis doesn’t have anything left in the tank. He still posted a 61 percent success rate last season along with 6.2 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders. Buster Skrine struggled last year and will struggle this year if the Jets continue to play him on the outside. Skrine can thrive in the slot though and if the Jets play him there full-time instead of part-time they will see improvements in his game. Marcus Williams is something of a question mark but had a solid 71.9 PFF grade last season in limited action. At safety, Marcus Gilchrist and Calvin Pryor aren’t a dynamic duo by any measure but the two will get the job done. Gilchrist was top-20 at the position last year by PFF grading and while Pryor is a bad run defender, he’s good enough in coverage to make up for it.

In another year, with less competition and an easier schedule, the Jets might be a playoff team. They’ll compete this season, but those factors will make them fall short.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

2016 NFL Preview: Miami Dolphins

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish third in the AFC East, the Miami Dolphins.

The 2015 Dolphins were defined by bad coaching that offset anything the personnel had to offer. The result was Joe Philbin being fired and interim coach Dan Campbell, PFT Commenter personified, let go. The hiring of Adam Gase is a good one; he has a great track record with quarterbacks and can help Ryan Tannehill. The problem is that last year’s personnel were far from flawless and this year’s is worse.

The biggest downgrade is at running back where the Dolphins have gone from Lamar Miller to a Jay Ajayi/Arian Foster/Kenyan Drake trio. Last season, one of the biggest gripes people had with the coaching staff was that it didn’t run the ball enough. This was valid as the Dolphins ran the ball just 41 percent of the time on first down, 29^th in the NFL according to Football Outsiders. However, if the coaching staff decides to run more this season, they will do so with players who are half as good as the departed Miller. Jay Ajayi struggled in his rookie season, posting just 3.8 yards per carry with a -17.7 percent DVOA. Arian Foster will turn 30 next week, has a long history of injuries and averaged 2.6 yards per carry in four games last year. Maybe third round pick Kenyan Drake can bring something to the table but he’ll be third in line and by the time he gets a chance it may be too late for him to make an impact.

At quarterback, Ryan Tannehill will be better with Adam Gase coaching him, but he’s got a long way to go before he gets to the level high enough to vault the Dolphins to playoff contention. Last season, Tannehill was 26^th in DYAR and 27^th in DVOA among qualified quarterbacks with a lacking 43.2 QBR. He was fairly accurate but it was rare he had to do anything that tough. It’s safe to say that Tannehill would be a game manager on a better team but with Miami, he’s been thrust into a where he’s expected to be the franchise’s savior. It’s unfair to him, not just they’re asking him for above and beyond what he’s capable of but because they’ve given him an awful supporting cast to do it with.

Dolphins’ receivers had 63 failed receptions, lost 717 yards and had a 9.3 failed reception rate according to Cian Fahey’s charting. That’s not just bad, when taken together those stats may constitute one of the worst receiving corps in football. Jarvis Landry is the only wideout on this team that qualifies as remotely reliable but even he was 63^rd among receivers in DVOA. Landry is great in the screen game, he averaged 4.9 yards after the catch according to Football Outsiders, but he’s not a great downfield threat, dropping and failing to get to more balls than he catches.

Kenny Stills and tight end Jordan Cameron were massive disappointments last season. Stills had just 27 receptions and didn’t even reach 500 receiving yards while Cameron had just 386 receiving yards and was 47^th among tight ends in DYAR. DeVante Parker may represent some hope that this group can be okay but his skill set seems synonymous with Landry’s: Dynamic with the ball in his hands but it’s not easy to get it there.

It’s tough have high hopes for the offensive line. Miami received a godsend when Laremy Tunsil fell to them at #13 overall as the Ole Miss product can slot in immediately at left guard and play at a high level but the right side of the line is worrisome. Billy Turner was awful last season with a 26.2 run blocking grade from PFF and right tackle Ju’Wuan James struggled with injuries last season and couldn’t run block when healthy. Brandon Albert will be fine as a pass blocker at left tackle and Mike Pouncey is a good enough center but the line as a whole will struggle greatly in run blocking. Albert, Turner and James all had run blocking grades below 40 from PFF and Miami was 28^th in adjusted line yards, 27^th in power success and 30^th in stuff rate last season. With worse running backs in 2016, that will only get worse.

Defensively, I have no idea where the Dolphins will get any production outside of Ndamukong Suh. Suh’s demise was greatly exaggerated last year; he still had a 92.0 PFF grade, sixth among interior defenders, six sacks, 13 hits and 21.5 hurries. He wasn’t 2014 Suh but he also wasn’t surrounded by half the talent the Lions had on their line that season. The same thing goes this season.

There isn’t a single reliable player on the defensive line outside of Suh. Mario Williams is coming off an awful season in Buffalo that saw him get eaten alive by opposing linemen on a weekly basis. Earl Mitchell had a 67 percent run stop rate, 68^th among defensive linemen last season according to Football Outsiders, and a 34.2 run defense grade from PFF. A rotation of Andre Branch and Cameron Wake makes sense until you remember that Branch is a bad run defender and Wake is 34 and coming off a torn Achilles.

Koa Misi is solid at linebacker but he’s just one player and far from the caliber of Suh. Additionally, he was severely lacking in coverage last season with a horrific 28 percent success rate per Football Outsiders. Kiko Alonso isn’t much better, coming in with a 41 percent success rate and 7.1 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders. Alonso was 92^nd among linebackers in PFF grading last season and had just two AV with the Eagles. Jelani Jenkins is similar to Misi. Solid player, but won’t make a difference if the rest of the defense is awful.

Last season, the Dolphins were last in pass defense DVOA against #1 wide receivers, so they attempted to fix the problem by trading for Byron Maxwell. This is the football equivalent of taking asbestos out of a building, then filling the vents with rats. It’s not quite as bad as before, but Maxwell had a 49.5 PFF grade in coverage last season and a 46 percent success rate according to Football Outsiders. The Dolphins didn’t even try to attempt a fix in other parts of the secondary which means that Tony Lippett and Bobby McCain might be starting cornerbacks. Lippett, a fifth round pick last season, had zero AV in his rookie season and McCain had a 38 percent success rate per Football Outsiders. They’re a little better off at safety but Michael Thomas is still a major question mark at best. Even Reshad Jones was 55^th among safeties in success rate according to Football Outsiders.

Talent-wise, the Dolphins are one of the worst teams in football. Gase may be able to propel them to a third place finish if he can elevate Tannehill but there simply isn’t anything to be excited about with this team. At best, the Dolphins are headed for a year of mediocrity.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

2016 NFL Preview: Buffalo Bills

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish fourth in the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills.

The season hasn’t even started and the Bills are already losing hope. Compared to last season, there have been very few big injuries during training camp across the NFL, but that’s not true for the Bills.

Shaq Lawson, their first round pick, is missing an unknown amount of time due to injury. Reggie Ragland, the team’s second round pick, is missing the entire season. Linebacker Manny Lawson is suspended one game, defensive lineman Marcell Dareus is suspended four. Even #2 running back Karlos Williams got hit with a four game suspension after an encouraging rookie year. These are injuries and suspensions that Buffalo, which was 28^th in weighted defensive DVOA last season, couldn’t afford.

Even though those suspensions are for only the first part of the season, the Bills don’t exactly much room to work with if they’re going to come close to succeeding, or even being 8-8 again. They’re filled with question marks on both sides of the ball with a healthy amount of incompetence on the sideline. In a competitive AFC East, that translates to a last place finish.

One of their more secure positions is quarterback, where Tyrod Taylor provided stability last season in a position that had been a black hole for the Bills. Taylor is one of the more interesting quarterbacks in football because his skill set is so unique. He doesn’t throw many bad passes; ranking eighth in interceptable pass rate per Cian Fahey’s charting and finishing with just six interceptions on the year. However, he isn’t particularly dynamic either, throwing for barely over 3,000 yards and running for 568. Taylor excels in throwing deep balls but struggles doing what many consider to be a more basic thing: throwing over the middle. It’s an interesting dynamic but it worked for the Bills last season. The real worries for this offense come in other places.

Buffalo put together a good running game last season on the backs of LeSean McCoy and Williams but there are reasons to believe that it won’t be quite as good in 2016. Karlos Williams made up a large part of that rushing attack, averaging 5.6 yards per attempt and getting a large number of red zone touches. Even though he’s only suspended for four games, those games will make a big difference for the Bills’ chances. Rex Ryan may be hesitant to give LeSean McCoy all of those touches after he struggled with injury last season which creates a tough void to fill. McCoy himself is still an above average running back but don’t expect the guy who handed you a fantasy football title in 2013. In the two years since, McCoy has averaged 4.3 yards per carry; solid, but nowhere near the 5.1 he had three years ago. It’ll also be tough for the run game to thrive with such a lack of receiving depth on the Bills’ roster.

As good as Sammy Watkins is (and he’s really good), it’s tough to have a good passing game when your #2 and 3 receivers are Robert Woods and Leonard Hankerson. Woods was 78^th among qualified receivers in DVOA last season and 107^th in PFF grading. This was somehow better than Hankerson, who didn’t qualify for DVOA but was 113^th among wideouts in PFF grading. 2015 seventh round pick Dezmin Lewis could play a factor, which is not an encouraging sentence to write, while tight end Charles Clay is simply not a solution to any of their problems. Outside of 2013, Clay has never had more than 60 receptions or 605 receiving yards. He was 32^nd among tight ends in DYAR and had a forgettable 2015 despite 51 receptions.

The offensive line does little to ease doubts. Richie Incognito came out of nowhere to have an incredible season but at age 33 it’s tough to see him repeating it. The left and center of this line: Cordy Glenn, Incognito and Eric Wood, look great on paper. All three of those players were top-10 at their position in PFF grading but it didn’t translate to team success. The Bills were 23^rd in adjusted line yards and 27^th in adjusted sack rate last season. Some of those sacks were likely due to Taylor getting caught trying to extend plays out of the pocket, but the Bills were still 19^th in pressure rate according to Football Outsiders. A lot of those are due to John Miller and Jordan Mills on the right side, particularly Miller who blew 14 blocks in pass protection per Football Outsiders, but if Buffalo’s offensive line can’t be good as a whole then individual successes don’t mean much.

Defensively, this team is an utter disaster. Not only are there suspensions and injuries all over the place, the Bills were horrible on this end last season. To help, they brought in Rob Ryan, perhaps the most blatant display of nepotism in history, after he presided over the worst defense since 1989 by DVOA[1]. The Bills were 31^st in adjusted sack rate, 29^th in adjusted line yards and 29^th in pressure rate last season, per Football Outsiders, and they might have gotten worse over the offseason.

Without Marcell Dareus, a rare bright spot on this defense, the Bills’ defensive line is going to be in shambles for the first four weeks of the season. They’ll be starting Adolphus Washington, a third round draft pick, 33 year old Kyle Williams and Corbin Bryant who did essentially nothing last season in 634 snaps.

On the edge, Jerry Hughes can still be productive as a pass rusher. He posted five sacks, nine hits and 32.5 hurries last season according to Football Outsiders. However, he’s not much of a run defender with opposing teams averaging 2.8 yards per carry when he was involved in the play. Manny Lawson is better in run defense, ranking top-10 in run stop rate among linebackers, per Football Outsiders, but struggled as a pass rusher. Reggie Ragland’s injury leaves a gaping hole at middle linebacker that will likely be filled by Preston Brown. The problem is that Brown had a 37.0 PFF grade last season while Zach Brown, who will likely start alongside him, had a 43.3 run defense grade and gave up 7.5 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders.

I’d have faith in the secondary if it wasn’t for the coaching staff. Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby are both capable of being lockdown cornerbacks and ranked top-10 among corners in PFF grading last season. Corey Graham remains a solid safety at 31 with a 71.6 PFF grade last season although Aaron Williams is certainly a question mark coming off an injury last season. However, the Ryan brothers have proven to be such poor defensive coaches that I’m not sure it matters. The Bills were a top-5 defense two years ago, then Rex Ryan came in and they were bottom-5. Now he’s brought in Rob Ryan who’s even worse. At a certain point, personnel take a backseat and the Bills are at that point[2].

The Bills are an amalgam of factors found on a last place team. They have bad coaching, no depth, a dearth of injuries and suspensions before the season has even started, and a competitive division. Those factors, as you might expect, will likely translate to a last place finish.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] DVOA has only been tracked since 1989.

[2] They don’t exactly have great personnel either outside of the secondary.

2016 NFL Preview: Arizona Cardinals9

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to win the NFC West, the Arizona Cardinals

If not for untimely injuries, the Cardinals might have won the Super Bowl last season. After Week 15, when Tyrann Mathieu tore his ACL and Carson Palmer hurt his thumb, they were a different team. Mathieu was a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and his absence created problems at both slot cornerback and safety. Palmer played through it but became a different player in the postseason, making basic mistakes, like throwing off his back foot, with regularity. It resulted in a 49-15 shellacking in the NFC Championship Game that ruined an otherwise great season.

In 2016, if the Cardinals have improved. That’s a tough thing to do for a team that went 13-3 last season but Arizona has added Evan Mathis, Chandler Jones while drafting Robert Nkemdiche and retaining most of their key players.

The only player some consider to be a question mark is Carson Palmer but if not for the playoffs, people would be talking about Palmer’s MVP-level play in 2015 instead of questioning whether or not he can lead a team to the Super Bowl. While his horrific play in the postseason is certainly concerning, I don’t think it’s indicative of what we’ll see from him this season. Palmer seemed to be more affected by his injury than anyone was letting on as there’s almost no other explanation for his play to have dropped so drastically. I think it’s much more likely that we see the Palmer who led the league in QBR, DVOA, DYAR and adjusted net yards per attempt while throwing for 4,671 yards and 35 TDs than the one who played a couple bad games in the playoffs. Even if Palmer isn’t back at the level he was last season, the Cardinals are deep enough and well-coached enough that they can still contend for a Super Bowl with lackluster quarterback play.

Their running game was considered a weakness coming into last season. Now, with David Johnson as the lead back, it’s likely to be a strength. Johnson broke out late last season, running for 378 yards in a three game stretch from Weeks 12-14 that won a lot of people their fantasy leagues. It’s easy to look at that and call Johnson’s performance a fluke but his numbers over the entire season back up the hype. He had a 56 percent success rate, third among running backs and a 15.7 percent DVOA, fourth among running backs. He ran for 4.6 yards per attempt and made big contributions as a pass-catcher with 457 receiving yards. Not to mention that head coach Bruce Arians is an offensive genius.

The receiving corps features three players in Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd that could all go for 1,000 yards this season. If there’s an easier player in football to root for than Fitzgerald, I haven’t found him yet. Just when it looked like Fitzgerald was on a downturn after a disappointing 2014, he had a resurgence thanks to moving over to the slot at the behest of Arians. His efficiency was off the charts with a 75 percent catch rate on 145 targets and a top-10 finish among wideouts in DVOA. He remains a good deep ball receiver and is one of the best run and screen blocking wideouts in football, making him a perfect fit for Arians’ scheme. John Brown eclipsed 1,000 yards last season and was fourth among wideouts in DVOA. His deep ball skills are among the best in football as he averaged 15.4 yards per reception. Michael Floyd was also top-10 in DVOA last season and has excelled under Arians. Since he became the coach in 2013, Floyd has 2,731 receiving yards despite playing 10 games with Palmer hurt in 2014. With Palmer healthy last year, Floyd’s catch rate went up by over 10 percent from 2014 and entering his age 27 season; he’s likely at his peak.

The offensive line was great last season, finishing top-5 in adjusted sack rate and adjusted line yards. That was before they added Evan Mathis to play right guard. Mathis finished third among guards in PFF grading last season mostly due to a 96.1 run blocking grade. Normally, it would be concerning that Mathis is going to be 35 this year but he’s been so good of late that it’s tough to be worried. Mathis and Mike Iupati will make up one of the best guard tandems in football, especially in run blocking where Iupati also excels. He had a 91.6 PFF grade in 2015 and the Cardinals were top-10 in ALY when running to the left end and left tackle, a product of Iupati’s work. Left tackle Jared Veldheer shouldn’t be discounted either. By PFF grading, he was a top-20 tackle last season. A.Q. Shipley and D.J. Humphries are certainly question marks at center and right tackle. Shipley didn’t play much in 2015 while Humphries was a healthy scratch every week after the Cardinals spent a first round pick on him. However, it’s tough to imagine two question marks sinking an otherwise great offensive line.

Defensively, the Cardinals feel a little underrated coming into this year. Much of this may be because they left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth by giving up 49 points in the NFC Championship Game, but don’t forget that the Cardinals were third in defensive DVOA last season.

In James Bettcher’s blitz-happy 3-4, the Cardinals were an incredible team in run defense and coverage last season. During the offseason, they added Chandler Jones and Robert Nkemdiche, both great pass rushers. Jones had 12.5 sacks, seven hits and 17.5 hurries in New England last season, per Football Outsiders, while Nkemdiche was considered one of the best pass rushers in the draft and fell because of off-field issues. The Cardinals have a great track record with guys like Nkemdiche. If that track record continues, the entire league is going to feel stupid for letting him fall to 29^th overall.

It’s easy to look at Arizona’s sack numbers and feel like the pass rush may have been lacking last season. It may not been as good as other facets of the defense, but the Cardinals certainly weren’t struggling there. Calais Campbell had five sacks, 16 hits and 16.5 hurries last year, per and Frostee Rucker posted 12 hits and 12.5 hurries, per Football Outsiders. Although they are losing Dwight Freeney, who was very productive as a third down rusher, Markus Golden will do well with more chances. Additionally, the Cardinals can always get pressure via blitzing, something Bettcher is not afraid to do. The Cardinals were top-5 in percentage of five-man rushes, six-man rushes, defensive back blitzes and average number of players in the box according to Football Outsiders.

In run defense, the Cardinals are juggernauts, ranking second in adjusted line yards and stuff percentage last season. Both Calais Campbell and Frostee Rucker are stout run defenders with Campbell posting an 89.5 PFF run defense grade and 20 defeats, per Football Outsiders, and Rucker’s run stop rate ranking fifth in football according to Football Outsiders. Rodney Gunter had a solid 78 percent stop rate per Football Outsiders while both Jones and Golden are more than capable of setting the edge.

Safety-turned-linebacker Deone Bucannon quickly became one of the best in football at his new position. Bucannon had an 84.9 coverage grade from PFF but stats undersell what Bucannon’s versatility brings to Arizona’s defense. Linebacker Kevin Minter may be a question mark after a big dip in PFF grading last season but he also might be the only question mark on the entire defense.

At corner, Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu make up arguably the best tandem in the league[1]. By PFF grading, Peterson was the fifth best corner in football and Mathieu was the best. Peterson led the league in success rate and adjusted yards allowed per target last season while Mathieu had 31 defeats and a 62 percent success rate per Football Outsiders. Justin Bethel was 22^nd in adjusted yards per target while safety Tony Jefferson was 10^th according to Football Outsiders. Tyvon Branch had a 67 percent success rate that was 11^th among safeties, per Football Outsiders, and a solid 78.2 PFF grade.

On either side of the ball, the Cardinals don’t have a single position that can be considered weak. They have the second best coach in football and stars all over the place. Barring another injury-related disaster, the Cardinals will win the NFC.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] We’re considering Mathieu a slot corner here because the Cardinals played more nickel than base last season.

2016 NFL Preview: Seattle Seahawks

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish second in the NFC West, the Seattle Seahawks.

At this point, the Seahawks have established themselves as annual Super Bowl contenders. That won’t change this season nor will it change in the near future. The only reason they won’t cruise to the NFC West title is because another Super Bowl contender is also playing in the division.  Seattle was first in both regular and weighted DVOA last season and will likely be among the top teams in the category this season. There is no reason for them to get worse on either side of the ball.

It’s arguable that Seattle’s offense has eclipsed its defense. By DVOA, it has. On a surface level, that’s surprising given that their defense is deeper and they dealt with injuries to Jimmy Graham, Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Rawls on the offense last season with a line that was the biggest hole on the entire team. The fact that they still managed to lead the league in offensive DVOA is a testament to Russell Wilson.

Wilson has become a player who can excel doing anything. He can pass, he can run, he can play in or out of the pocket and he can improvise better than any player in the league. Wilson was top-5 in QBR, DYAR, interceptable pass rate[1] and DVOA last season. He had career highs in passing yardage, touchdowns, and adjusted net yards per attempt, tying his career high in AV. Due to Wilson’s improvements over the past two seasons; Seattle’s offense has become much better-rounded. During their Super Bowl run, Seattle was a run-heavy team that relied on Wilson to produce with spontaneity. Now, Wilson isn’t one of the best all-around quarterbacks in football, he has a great receiving corps to work with as well

Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and Tyler Lockett all had catch rates of at least 72 percent last season and were all top-5 among wideouts in DVOA. That’s not just good, it’s downright ridiculous. Baldwin was one of the biggest breakout stars of the season, leading all receivers in DVOA and coming second in DYAR. He racked up 1,069 receiving yards, averaging 13.7 per reception with a 91.1 PFF grade. The Seahawks’ biggest missing piece for so many years had been a #1 wide receiver and last year Baldwin became that receiver.

In 2016, Tyler Lockett could easily become just as good. In his rookie season with the Seahawks not expecting much contribution, he had 51 receptions and was third in the league in DVOA. As we’ve seen when he plays as a returner, Lockett is incredibly elusive and dynamic with the ball in his hands. When the Seahawks play him full-time (he started just eight games last season), he could turn into a star.

If he does, it means that Jermaine Kearse gets knocked down into a role as the #3 receiver which is pretty incredible given how good Jermaine Kearse was last year. Kearse was fifth among receivers in DVOA which is somehow the worst among Seattle’s three starters, and 19^th in DYAR. Most teams would be happy to have Kearse as their #2 receiver but he could wind up fourth on the team in targets once you take Jimmy Graham into account. Graham was the only pass-catcher on the offense that had a disappointing 2015, accumulating 605 receiving yards before getting hurt in Week 11. Even though Graham was top-10 among tight ends in DYAR, the Seahawks expected more from him. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell didn’t do Graham many favors, taking him out of his comfort zone and even using him as a blocker, something Graham is notably poor at. Hopefully that doesn’t happen again and Graham can get back to the level of production he was at in New Orleans.

Most teams would be lamenting the loss of someone as good as Marshawn Lynch to retirement but the Seahawks might have gotten better at running back. Thomas Rawls took over for Lynch after he got hurt last season and was an absolute monster. He led the league in success rate at 62 percent and yards per attempt with 5.6 and DYAR with 216. He ran for 830 yards on just 147 carries, showing a propensity for running after contact that echoes his predecessor in Seattle’s backfield. If Rawls is healthy after breaking his ankle late in 2015, he will be one of the best running backs in football this season.

The only part of this offense that isn’t incredible is the offensive line. In fact, it’s the exact opposite. Tom Cable’s experiments as the line coach have been an utter disaster as the Seahawks were 30^th in adjusted sack rate last season. Even if rookie Germain Ifedi works out at right guard (given Cable’s track record, he won’t), the Seahawks simply have no one else on this line that can be relied on. Garry Gilliam and J’Marcus Webb, slated to start at left and right tackle, both have PFF grades under 50. Gilliam blew 14 blocks in pass protection last season while Webb slotted in at a comparatively low 10, per Football Outsiders. Left guard Mark Glowinski had a 49.9 PFF grade in nine games last season while last season’s left guard Justin Britt is now playing center, his third position in as many years, for which there is no reasonable explanation. The Seahawks overcame a bad offensive line last year and they likely will do the same this year. However, it caught up to them last season when they gave up five sacks in the divisional round against Carolina and it will catch up with them at some point in 2016.

Defensively, the Seahawks remain one of the best teams in football. Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril were both among the top-10 edge rushers in football by PFF grading in 2015 and with good reason. Bennett had 10 sacks, 21 hits and 27 hurries last season with opposing teams averaging a staggeringly low 0.8 yards per carry when Bennett was involved in the play according to Football Outsiders. Avril was 10^th in run stop rate, also per Football Outsiders, with pass rushing numbers that rivaled Bennett’s. In 778 snaps to Bennett’s 808, Avril had nine sacks, 17 hits and 28 hurries, per Football Outsiders. The inside is as close as you’ll get to an issue here as star run defender Brandon Mebane is 31 while Ahtyba Rubin, Jordan Hill and Sealver Siliga will all struggle to play three downs. However, when you consider how good the rest of the defense is, it’s tough to imagine this becoming much of an issue.

K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner are both stars at linebacker. In coverage, Wright had an 88.2 PFF grade and was fifth among linebackers in success rate per Football Outsiders. Wagner wasn’t far behind, ranking 11^th in the same category as the two cemented Seattle’s vaunted pass defense. It’ll be tough for Michael Morgan or Kevin Pierre-Louis to replace Bruce Irvin, a solid pass rusher and great run defender, but when the Seahawks have had changeover at cornerback in the past things have gone swimmingly. Knowing the Seahawks, it’ll be surprising if the same thing doesn’t happen here.

The secondary is still arguably the best in football. Richard Sherman is the closest thing in today’s game to Darrelle Revis, circa 2009, when he was shutting down every receiver in sight. Seattle’s opponents simply don’t throw to the left side unless Sherman is shadowing a receiver, something that has happened more often last year. There’s good reason for that too; Sherman had an 86.4 PFF coverage grade, defensed 14 passes and had 14 AV last season. Jeremy Lane only played in six games last season after getting hurt in Super Bowl XLIX but he should be back in full force this season. Lane hasn’t yet started over a full season but has performed well in complimentary roles throughout his career. Expect him to do just as well as a full-time member of the Legion of Boom. The only secondary member that can be considered any sort of a question mark is DeShawn Shead. Shead struggled greatly last year with a 40.9 coverage grade from PFF and a lowly 44 percent success rate per Football Outsiders. If the Seahawks can be exploited in any way on defense, it’ll be through Shead.

At safety, the Seahawks as good as any team could possibly be. Earl Thomas is the lynchpin of this defense and the best safety in football. He had a 73 percent success rate in coverage last season and allowed 4.9 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders along with an 89.2 PFF grade and 10 AV. Kam Chancellor isn’t that far behind. The (very) hard-hitting safety was 11^th among safeties in adjusted yards per target last season and had an 84.8 run defense grade from PFF.

The Seahawks might be the only team in football that may not win its division yet is universally considered a Super Bowl contender in August. Despite tough competition in the Cardinals, it’s simply impossible to see the Seahawks living up to that expectation.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com

 

[1] Per Cian Fahey’s charting.

2016 NFL Preview: Los Angeles Rams

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish third in the NFC West, the Los Angeles Rams.

The best scene in last week’s inaugural episode of Hard Knocks was when Rams head coach Jeff Fisher went on a tirade about his refusal to accept mediocrity. It was irony at its finest.  A Jeff Fisher-led team has not finished above 8-8 since 2008. Fisher himself saying that he doesn’t accept mediocrity is like Bartolo Colon saying he doesn’t accept cupcakes. He can say all he wants, but in all likelihood the Rams will be mediocre yet again and Fisher will yet again count himself as lucky for keeping his job[1].

With rookie Jared Goff at quarterback, the Rams’ offense will be built around Todd Gurley. This is sensible on its surface. Gurley is one of the best running backs in football. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry, ranked fourth in DYAR despite missing games due to injury at the beginning of the season and rushed for 1,106 yards last season. He’s an unbelievable runner but building an offense around a run game in 2016 isn’t a smart thing to do. The Cowboys made the playoffs by doing it two years ago but they had a historically good offensive line and a passing game they could easily trust if they were behind or in a 2-minute drill. The Rams have neither of those. Additionally, running Gurley into the ground puts his long-term future in jeopardy. Outside of Eric Dickerson, essentially nobody has had 400 carries without experiencing a humungous drop off the next year. DeMarco Murray was an entirely different player last year after 392 carries in 2014 and he didn’t absorb as much contact as Gurley will this year due to his offensive line.

It’s not a stretch to say that the Rams’ offensive line is among the worst in football. They didn’t allow many sacks last season because the offense allowed Nick Foles and Case Keenum to get the ball out quickly but when the line was forced to do its job well, it failed miserably. The Rams were 24^th in adjusted line yards and 28^th in stuff rate last season despite blocking for one of the best running backs in football. Left tackle Greg Robinson might go down as one of the biggest draft busts of all-time. Robinson had a 30.3 PFF grade last season and committed 16 penalties. There is an argument to be made that he is the worst left tackle in football. The rest of the line wasn’t much better as right tackle Rob Havenstein was the only player with a PFF grade over 50. In fairness to guards Rodger Saffold and Jamon Brown, neither played a full season in 2015 but the games they did play were unimpressive at best. Saffold’s PFF grade was a lowly 38.2 while Brown allowed two sacks in nine games per Football Outsiders. Center Tim Barnes had a 43.9 run blocking grade from PFF and blew six blocks in the category according to Football Outsiders.

Jared Goff will certainly be an improvement at quarterback but it’s unreasonable to expect him to lead this team to the playoffs. Goff is coming from a prototypical college offense that doesn’t translate well to the NFL. I’m all for using spread concepts in the pros but even if the Rams were to do that (and knowing Jeff Fisher they probably won’t), Goff would still experience a learning period for making NFL-level reads and diagnosing defenses at an NFL level. It’s pretty unlikely that Case Keenum actually starts regular season games for the Rams but he is ahead of Goff on the depth chart right now. Most likely, that’s due to Fisher having more confidence in him to do these things.

Assuming the #1 overall pick is the starter, I would expect another year of a YAC-heavy passing offense in Los Angeles. That will hide the poor offensive line and allow Goff an easier transition to pro football. The Rams also have one of the best wide receivers in the league when it comes to screens in Tavon Austin. It’s tough to know what to think of his game as a whole because his skill set is so specific but it’s undeniable that Austin excels in getting yards after the catch. According to Football Outsiders he averaged 6.8 last season so even if he can’t function as a downfield threat, there is use for him in screen passes and even on end-arounds.

The biggest problem in the Rams’ passing offense is that they cannot stretch the field vertically. Austin doesn’t have enough ability at the catch point to be a deep threat, leaving Kenny Britt as their best deep option. Britt isn’t exactly a ball hawk himself with a 50 percent catch rate in 2015 and his career high in receiving yards is just 775. Despite this, he’s likely the Rams’ most reliable receiver given that they’re choosing between him, Austin, Brian Quick and Bradley Marquez. Because of the black hole at wide receiver, it’s worth watching to see how many targets tight end Lance Kendricks gets. Jared Cook had 75 at the position last year so that’s the barometer for Kendricks who is likely an improvement in the receiving game.

On paper, the Rams should have been a top-5 defense last season. Instead, they were seventh in regular defensive DVOA and 11^th in weighted defensive DVOA, meaning they lost steam as the season went on. If nothing else, they should right that this season.

Their defensive line should be one of the best in football. Robert Quinn played just eight games last year and had five sacks, five hits and 7.5 hurries per Football Outsiders. At the other defensive end spot, William Hayes had an 85.8 PFF grade along with 24 hurries and a 78 percent run stop rate according to Football Outsiders. Michael Brockers and newcomer Dominique Easley should form a solid rotation at one defensive tackle spot and the other belongs to arguably the best defensive player in football, Aaron Donald.

 It’s stunning that it’s even possible for the case to be made for someone being better at defense than J.J. Watt but Donald is right there. He had a 99.9 PFF grade last season which is not supposed to be possible. He had 20 AV, 11 sacks, 27 hits and 31 hurries while allowing just 1.3 yards per carry on runs where he made the play according to Football Outsiders. If he continues to play at this level for five more seasons, which is no easy task, there is a legitimate case to be made that Donald will be the best defensive tackle ever.

Moving Mark Barron from safety to middle linebacker was one of few smart moves that Jeff Fisher made last season. According to Football Outsiders, Barron had a 65 percent success rate and allowed just 2.7 adjusted yards per target. He’s a solid run defender as well with an 82.1 PFF grade in that category. There will be coverage issues with Akeem Ayers at the other outside linebacker spot but he’s a good enough run defender that it won’t matter. He was third in run stop rate among linebackers and allowed just 2.5 yards per carry when involved in the play according to Football Outsiders. Middle linebacker will be an issue as Alec Ogletree is coming off an injury and has struggled in coverage historically but the rest of the front seven should be good enough to compensate.

Although the front seven is great, the secondary has concerns. The Rams made the right choice in keeping Trumaine Johnson over Janoris Jenkins during the offseason as Johnson was a top-20 corner by PFF grading and was top-10 in adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders. If LaMarcus Joyner can replicate his 70.6 PFF grade in coverage from last season the Rams will feel decent about things. If not, they’ll be forced to rely on E.J. Gaines who didn’t even play in 2015 and Coty Sensabaugh who had a 47 percent success rate last year per Football Outsiders.

At safety, both T.J. McDonald and Maurice Alexander had coverage grades below 60 from PFF. McDonald had just a 45 percent success rate, ranking 61^st among safeties last year according to Football Outsiders. This position will be a gaping hole.

The Rams certainly have a playoff ceiling this season. Todd Gurley could put them over the top offensively and they could be a great defensive team. However, it’s too hard to picture Jared Goff playing well when behind with an awful receiving corps just as it’s too hard to picture holes in the secondary going unexposed. It seems that once again, the Rams are confined to mediocrity.

 

[1] If anyone ever tells you that coaching doesn’t make a difference, remind them that the 2015 Rams were 7-9 and the 2015 Broncos were Super Bowl champ despite the two teams having very similar makeup. With a better coaching staff, there are very few reasons to think the Rams would not have been a playoff team at minimum.

Let's remember the good with A-Rod

Alex Rodriguez is probably the greatest player I’ve ever rooted for. He had unbelievable talent, an easily mimicked swing and an undeniable ease about playing the game. But I still use the word probably because there are no absolutes with Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez except for this one: I have spent more minutes talking and thinking about Alex Rodriguez than any other athlete. 

Somehow, it’s taken until his retirement for the topic to get a little bit tired. I’m tired of talking about A-Rod’s morality and whether he should be in the Hall of Fame and using him as the poster boy for the Steroid Era.

When I think of A-Rod 10 years from now, I want to remember the 2009 postseason, in particular Game 2 of the ALCS, one of the forgotten great games from the past 10 years. It was rainy and disgusting outside and the game went 13 innings, ending early the next morning. In my 5^th grade class on Monday, I was one of the lucky kids because my parents let me stay up and watch. I was half asleep when A-Rod hit the tied the game in the 11^th but I still remember the feeling when the ball cleared the right field fence at Yankee Stadium by about six inches. Two innings later when Jerry Hairston Jr. scored the winning run, that feeling of anxiety and relief turned to joy and a little more than two weeks later the Yankees were on top of the world and it turned to euphoria.

I skipped school for the parade. My dad’s office had a perfect view of the Canyon of Heroes and we had sat and watched the year before when the Giants had their parade after beating the Patriots in the Super Bowl. In 2009, we never got within a block of the building. It was so crowded you couldn’t cross the street without fighting a mob. I barely caught a glimpse of the parade but it didn’t matter because the Yankees were champions and order had been restored to the universe.

That parade doesn’t happen without Alex Rodriguez. Not just for his home run in Game 2 of the ALCS but for a .365 average that postseason, including six home runs and more clutch hits than you can count.

I want to remember hundreds more homers and big hits, more than I care to count. In August of 2009, the Yankees and Red Sox played 14 ½ scoreless innings before A-Rod blasted one into left-center to end it. I learned about that one the next day because I had fallen asleep listening to it on the radio. Last April when he hit one 471 feet in Tampa Bay and everyone knew that he was back and the walk-off grand slam against Baltimore nine Aprils ago, an eon in the timeline of A-Rod. And last night when he jogged out onto the field in the ninth inning to play third base for the first time in over a year and looked like a little boy who had just met Santa Claus.

And yes, there are also lots of things I’d love to forget about A-Rod. That goes without saying. Controversy came with the package but if you were to ask me, I’d happily do it again. There are too many memories to say otherwise.

All stats are from baseball-reference.com or fangraphs.com unless otherwise noted

2016 NFL Preview: San Francisco 49ers

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish 4^th in the NFC West, the San Francisco 49ers.

Remember when the 49ers were Super Bowl contenders? Doesn’t it feel like a decade ago? Since Richard Sherman intercepted Colin Kaepernick in the end zone to end the 2013 NFC Championship Game, the Niners are 13-19; they’ve had three coaches, a -183 point differential and Kaepernick himself has been essentially replaced by Blaine Gabbert. In 2015, they were dead last in DVOA. There are exceptionally few teams that have had a quicker fall from grace in this sport.

Climbing back up the mountain will not be nearly as quick. The most obvious hole is at quarterback where the choice between Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert is like, well, I’ll just let Lindsey Graham explain it. Right now, it looks like Chip Kelly is going with Gabbert so let’s talk about him. Gabbert improved last season at playing quarterback in the same sense that DeAndre Jordan improved at free throw shooting by moving his percentage up from 39.7 to 43.0. Despite still being one of the worst quarterbacks in football, he is still somehow the right choice, which says a lot more about Kaepernick than it does about Gabbert. Last season, the former Jaguar had -85 DYAR, a 42.6 QBR and barely eclipsed 75 percent accuracy, per Cian Fahey’s charting. Quite simply, Blaine Gabbert is not a starting-caliber NFL quarterback who, in all likelihood will start for an NFL team this season. This is a bad thing.

Perhaps even worse is Gabbert’s supporting cast. Between the running backs, offensive line and wide receivers, the 49ers have roughly three above average players: Carlos Hyde, Joe Staley and Torrey Smith. This is also a bad thing.

If Hyde can stay healthy after playing just seven games last season, the 49ers will have some semblance of a rushing attack. The Ohio State product had 4.1 yards per attempt last season and was top-15 in DVOA among running backs with a solid 49 percent success rate. Assuming health, it’s at offensive line and receiver where this team will really fall apart.

A bad quarterback with bad protection is a recipe for disaster. And outside of Joe Staley, not one 49ers offensive lineman that is projected to start had a PFF pass blocking grade over 50. Zane Beadles blew eight blocks in pass protection last year, giving up three sacks per Football Outsiders. In five games, Daniel Kilgore was an utter disaster, posting a 40.8 PFF grade while right tackle Erik Pears blew 8.5 blocks in protection per Football Outsiders yet was worse in run blocking than pass blocking by PFF grading. It’s almost never a good thing when your third round pick is one of the most reliable players on the offensive line from the get-go but that may be the case for right guard Brandon Thomas.

Torrey Smith is aging but remains the best receiver in this group by a mile. He’s still a legitimate deep ball threat, leading the league in yards per reception last season but there isn’t anything else behind him. Quinton Patton, the likely #2 receiver, was 79^th in DVOA and 78^th in DYAR last season. Bruce Ellington didn’t play enough snaps to qualify but had a worse DVOA and DYAR than Ellington along with a lacking 62.9 PFF grade. Even if things go well, the 49ers offense might still rank 30^th.

San Francisco’s defense isn’t quite as bad as its offense. In fact, there are even some bright spots. The front seven has some potential. Ian Williams is one of the more underrated players in football. He clocked in with an 89.0 run defense grade from PFF last season and had 51 stops per Football Outsiders. DeForest Buckner is a promising end out of Oregon while Quinton Dial and sophomore Arik Armstead are both fine options at end.

Linebacker isn’t all that bad either. NaVorro Bowman probably shouldn’t have been an All-Pro last season but he’s still a very good run defender. Ahmad Brooks and Aaron Lynch combined for 13 sacks last year and even though Lynch is suspended for four games the Niners will have solid pass rushing on the edges. Gerald Hodges is certainly an issue at middle linebacker given his 43.6 PFF grade. The biggest issue for this linebacking corps will be coverage. Both middle linebackers had coverage grades in the 30’s from PFF and lackluster success rates. Hodges in particular was bad with just a 42 percent success rate on 11 targets per Football Outsiders.

It will also be interesting to see how the front seven changes under new coordinator Jim O’Neil. Even if they aren’t a particularly good group, they should be better than 27^th in adjusted line yards and 29^th in adjusted sack rate. It’s on O’Neil to get them to the level they should be.

Even if the front seven comes through, the secondary is unlikely to do the same. At corner, the 49ers have three guys who are best fit covering #3 wideouts. Tramaine Brock is the only one remotely capable of covering the best wideout on an opposing team after an impressive 60 percent success rate in 2015 per Football Outsiders. However, neither Jimmie Ward nor Kenneth Acker had a success rate over 50 percent according to Football Outsiders and Chris Davis played in just three games last season. At safety, Eric Reid was 32^nd in adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders while Antoine Bethea had a horrific PFF grade in coverage.

Despite a chance for an acceptable defense, the fact of the matter is that the 49ers will be competing for the #1 pick this season. Their offense is probably the worst in the league which alone puts them in last. Defensively, they have a ceiling around league average but it’s pretty unlikely they hit it and they just hired a coach whose players all despised him in Philadelphia. In short, this is a very bad football team that will not do well this season.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

2016 NFL Preview: Carolina Panthers

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to win the NFC South, the Carolina Panthers.

Everything finally clicked into place for the Panthers in 2015. Cam Newton finally made The Leap, winning the MVP and leading the team to its second NFC Championship. Although Kelvin Benjamin was hurt in the preseason, there were very few other high-profile injuries (at least until the playoffs) and Jonathan Stewart ran rampant over the entire league behind a dominant interior offensive line. The receivers, well, they were good enough and the defense, led by Luke Kuechly, was incredible.

Things aren’t going to be quite as perfect this season. There will be injuries, the secondary isn’t too hot after Josh Norman left for the Redskins and there’s real concern at both tackle spots. It’s also really hard to go 15-1 no matter how good you are. Lots of bounces have to go your way and there’s a good chance that not all those bounces go Carolina’s way again in 2016. That being said, it’s tough not to imagine this team as a Super Bowl contender.

For starters, Cam Newton has firmly established himself as a superstar. He led the league in touchdown percentage last season, throwing for 3,837 yards. He also rushed for 636 yards and 10 TDs, showing that he’s the only quarterback in the league other than Russell Wilson with the ability to consistently make something out of nothing. However, Newton is a physical specimen unlike any other quarterback. The Panthers were third in red zone DVOA, per Football Outsiders, because of his ability to do anything at any time and do it well. Perhaps the most impressive part of Newton’s season was the awful crop of receivers he did it with.

Last year, per Cian Fahey’s charting, the Panthers were second in failed receptions and first in lost yards. It’s not a coincidence that Newton’s best target was Ted Ginn Jr., who caught the ball less than half of the time it was thrown to him. This year, things will get a lot better with Benjamin coming back from his ACL tear.  As a rookie in 2014, Benjamin had over 1,000 receiving yards and emerged as Carolina’s best target. They’ll still have issues in terms of depth, Ted Ginn and Corey Brown as the second and third wideouts is less than ideal, but things are still very much improved from last season.

The less appreciated part of Carolina’s offense last season was Jonathan Stewart. When freed from the shackles of a running back by committee last season, Stewart provided a consistent duality that the offense needed. A top-10 running back by PFF grading, Stewart rushed for 989 yards and made his first Pro Bowl last season. A big part of that is due to the interior line.

Andrew Norwell, Ryan Kalil and Trai Turner were all among the best in the league at their positions last season. Turner was the best of the three, posting an 86.5 PFF grade and blowing just 2.5 blocks all season, per Football Outsiders. The best part about the trio was that it was great in both facets of blocking. Kalil allowed 0.5 sacks, per Football Outsiders, and was given an 84.0 run blocking grade by PFF. Norwell’s pass blocking lagged slightly behind his run blocking but it was still well above average. The Panthers were able to put together a great offensive line without much help on the outside. Michael Oher did better than most would have expected and still posted a horrific 26.3 run blocking grade from PFF. Mike Remmers blew nine passes in pass protection per Football Outsiders and became Von Miller’s personal turnstile in the Super Bowl. Those two players are legitimate concerns, especially in the playoffs, but if Carolina’s interior can be as good as it was in 2015, it’s hard to imagine the outside being too much of an issue unless the team is facing a dominant edge rusher.

As good as they were offensively; ranking sixth in weighted DVOA, the Panthers were truly a defensive team at heart. Carolina was fourth in adjusted line yards last season and outside of losing Jared Allen to retirement, they’re essentially running back the same front seven. Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei both run stop percentages in the mid-80’s and they weren’t even the best run defenders in the front seven. That honor goes to either defensive end Charles Johnson or linebacker Luke Kuechly. Johnson was eighth among defensive ends with opponents averaging just 1.1 yards per carry on plays in which he was involved per Football Outsiders and Kuechly had a 96.0 run defense grade from PFF. At the other DE spot, Kony Ealy isn’t quite the run defender Johnson is but he is a great pass rusher, racking up five sacks, nine hits and 21 hurries last season according to Football Outsiders.

Linebacker is where things get ridiculous. We already talked about Luke Kuechly’s run defense, but what I didn’t mention is that Kuechly had a 99.1 PFF grade, first among linebackers and a 99.5 coverage grade which is just impossible. Kuechly is incredibly skilled in every facet of the game, posting 75 stops and 24 defeats last season according to Football Outsiders. The Panthers have also surrounded him with two borderline top-20 linebackers by PFF grading. Thomas Davis continues to churn out productive seasons to the point where even at age 33 it’s tough to imagine anything slowing him down. Even a broken arm, which he played through in last year’s Super Bowl. Davis was right behind Kuechly with a 62 percent success rate in coverage last season and just 4.0 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders. It raised eyebrows when the Panthers took a linebacker in the first round last season when they were already set at the position, but Shaq Thompson had an impressive rookie season. Although it wasn’t a large sample size, just 365 snaps as he rotated with A.J. Klein, Thompson had a 76 percent run stop rate and a 77 percent success rate in coverage per Football Outsiders. Expect him to take more of Klein’s snaps this season as he grows into a full-time starter.

The only place the Panthers will struggle is at cornerback. Frankly, they struggled there last season as they had no depth behind Josh Norman. Now, Norman is gone which leaves Bene Benwikere to take his place. Benwikere had a 48.0 coverage grade from PFF last season, so this is concerning on many levels. Robert McClain’s coverage grade was just 0.5 points better and rookie James Bradberry is their next-best option. As good as Carolina’s linebackers are in coverage, it’s going to be nearly impossible for them not to get exposed in the passing game.

Luckily, it’s unlikely that they get exposed deep. With Kurt Coleman and Tre Boston at safety, there isn’t much to worry about. Coleman had a career year in 2015 with seven interceptions and a 69 percent success rate per Football Outsiders. On deep balls last season, Carolina was fifth in the league in defensive DVOA. Tre Boston isn’t at Coleman’s level but the 24-year old is certainly capable with a solid 76.8 coverage grade from PFF last season.

With the benefit of being in a fairly weak NFC South added to an already playoff-caliber team, expect the Panthers to cruise into the playoffs and get a first-round bye. They may not be quite as good as last season, but with Cam Newton and Ron Rivera at the helm, they’ll be the team to beat in this division for a long time.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted