EthanSears.com

2016 NFL Preview: Denver Broncos

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish third in the AFC West, the Denver Broncos.

It’s tough to see the Broncos repeating as Super Bowl champs or even division champs. Last season, they were helped by a great record in close games, going 12-4 when they were a 9.7-win team by Pythagorean wins, and injury luck. Denver’s was second on both offense and defense in adjusted games lost, per Football Outsiders. Both of those things will change and Denver will struggle to cope with losses on their defense. Even with all of that, I still see Denver as a playoff team

Anybody who tells you that the Broncos have downgraded at quarterback is simply wrong. The football-viewing public has forgotten that Peyton Manning was one of, if not the worst quarterback in football last season. Trevor Siemian will struggle to have the same impact in film sessions and other places off the field, but on the field it will be tough for Siemian to be worse than Manning was last season. Manning threw 17 interceptions in 10 games, completing just 59.8 percent of his passes and ranking second-to-last among qualified quarterbacks in DYAR and DVOA. Given that Siemian is surrounded by largely the same skill position players, it’s hard to fathom him being worse.

Siemian’s biggest targets will be Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders—the same two receivers that bailed out Manning time after time last season. Both were considered to have off-years in 2015 and still had over 1,000 receiving yards. Thomas had 177 targets—a mammoth number—and still managed a 59 percent catch rate. Sanders wasn’t far behind, finishing with a 55 percent catch rate. He also had an 87.2 PFF grade, 13^th among receivers. Denver managed well without a consistent #3 receiver last year and will likely try and do the same this year. It looks like Jordan Norwood will be in that role to start, but it could easily be Cody Latimer. The same goes for tight end, where either Virgil Green or 2015 third-rounder Jeff Heuerman will try to duplicate Owen Daniels’ 26 DYAR from last season.

The Broncos’ run game will also function better with Siemian at quarterback. With Manning last season, Gary Kubiak had to compromise and run the pistol for a large chunk of last season. Now, he can have Siemian line up under center and run his offense the way it’s intended. This will help a run game that already looks pretty good. From Week 7 on, Anderson averaged 6.35 yards per carry last season. After a notably bad start, he morphed back into the same player that broke out late in 2014, racking up yards after contact and showing absolute dynamism in the open field.

Denver’s offensive line remains a problem. Russell Okung gives them some much needed competency at left tackle, but still had a fairly pedestrian 72.1 PFF grade last season. Losing Evan Mathis at guard will hurt the interior, which is now full of question marks. Max Garcia had a 40.0 pass blocking grade from PFF last season and fellow guard Ty Sambrailo blew six pass blocks in the three games he played according to Football Outsiders. Center Matt Paradis looks better by comparison, but a 65.4 PFF grade in pass blocking is still below average. Donald Stephenson won’t solve anything at right tackle either. He had an awful 34.5 PFF grade last season, blowing 8.5 blocks in protection, per FO. The Broncos were a pedestrian 17^th in adjusted line yards last season and it doesn’t seem like this group is much better.

Defensively, the Broncos remain a force. They were first in both DVOA and weighted DVOA last season, riding one of the greatest defensive runs in history to a championship. It’s unlikely that Denver is that good again because, well, it’s almost impossible to be that good. However, this is still a defense good enough to drag them to the playoffs.

Derek Wolfe headlines a defensive line that led the league in adjusted sack rate last season. Wolfe had a 92.2 PFF grade last season along with 5.5 sacks, nine hits and 16 hurries, per Football Outsiders. Nose tackle Sylvester Williams had a 90 percent run stop rate, per FO, making him one of the biggest reasons that the Broncos were third in adjusted line yards and fifth in stuff rate last year. Losing Malik Jackson will hurt, but Vance Walker is more than capable. Walker played just 382 snaps last season but posted an 80.2 PFF grade along with an 84 percent run stop rate according to FO.

Danny Trevathan is the other big loss the defense has sustained, but the linebacking corps still looks pretty good. Todd Davis, his likely replacement, played well in limited time last season. Next to him on the inside, Brandon Marshall was 12^th among linebackers in PFF grading last year. He had a 61 percent success rate in coverage along with a 71 percent run stop rate, both ranking in the top-25 among LBs according to Football Outsiders. Von Miller is coming off a Super Bowl MVP and a season in which he posted 11 sacks, 23 hits and 37 hurries, per FO. Miller was also second among edge rushers in PFF grading, adding to an already insane statistical profile. DeMarcus Ware is aging but has continued on as a high-level pass rusher. Ware had 7.5 sacks, eight hits and 19 hurries last season, per FO.

In the secondary, it’s the same group that helped the Broncos win last year’s title. Chris Harris Jr. is a shutdown corner in man-to-man[1]. He had 13 AV last season and was top-10 among corners in PFF grading. Aqib Talib was top-20 among corners in adjusted yards per target and Bradley Roby had an 82.0 coverage grade from PFF last season. T.J. Ward was a top-10 safety by PFF grading last season and had a 66 percent success rate according to Football Outsiders. Next to him, Darian Stewart had an 81.6 PFF grade last season and was arguably the worst player in the secondary.

This isn’t the same Broncos team that won the Super Bowl last year. They had too many things go their way to be that team again, but this is still a playoff team as long as the defense remains intact and Wade Phillips is coaching it.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] Unless it’s against Antonio Brown, who beat him so badly that I feel obligated to mention it here.

2016 NFL Preview: San Diego Chargers

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish fourth in the AFC West, the San Diego Chargers.

Last season, the Chargers were stuck in a hell filled with injuries and relocation speculation, resulting in a 4-12 finish to one of the most depressing seasons in the league. It will be tough for them to have another year that miserable on the field, especially given that they’ve made some notable improvements over the offseason and injuries regress to the mean. However, the threat of relocation still hangs over San Diego, with a vote to decide whether or not the city will fund a new stadium coming in November. And while those offseason improvements will help, they aren’t enough to get the Chargers out of the cellar in a division filled with playoff contenders.

Philip Rivers has become one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league lately, thanks to the dearth of talent the Chargers have surrounded him with.  Despite a mangled offensive line, no running game and an injured receiving corps, Rivers threw for over 4,500 yards last season, ranking top-10 in DYAR and third in accuracy percentage according to Cian Fahey’s charting. It’s somewhat of a travesty that the Chargers have failed so miserably to build a championship contender around Rivers since 2009. It’s tough to come in last place with the best quarterback in the division, but San Diego is likely to do just that for the second year in a row.

One of the positives going into this season is that it looks like Rivers will finally have a good receiving corps. Most of this depends on Keenan Allen’s health, something that may not be all too reliable given that Allen played just eight games last year. However, he was having an incredible year before he got hurt—on pace for 1,400 receiving yards and 134 catches. If Allen can stay healthy, he has the chance to be one of the best receivers in football. The acquisition of Travis Benjamin gives Rivers a legitimate #2 option as well. Benjamin is a solid deep ball receiver and nearly eclipsed 1,000 yards playing with the Browns last year. It’s a sure bet that he can better Michael Floyd’s production in that role from years past. Stevie Johnson is a capable #3 wideout and Antonio Gates was top-10 in DYAR at tight end last season despite missing five games and being 35 years old.

The problems for this offense lie in the run game. San Diego drafted Melvin Gordon in the first round last season to fix this and it backfired in the most miserable way imaginable. Gordon averaged a measly 3.5 yards per carry, ranked 43^rd among running backs in DVOA and DYAR, fumbled six times and to top it all off, didn’t even score a touchdown. At times, he looked like a high school running back playing for an NFL team. For the Chargers’ rushing attack to even get to average, Gordon would need an incredible improvement from his rookie season, when the team was 31^st in rushing DVOA.

The offensive line won’t help him much. It’s been decimated by injuries for a couple years, but even when healthy the Chargers will struggle up front. The addition of Matt Slauson at center will help the interior, but there’s only so much one player can do when flanked by poor players on either side. Both San Diego guards were miserable by PFF grading last season with D.J. Fluker coming in at 45.5 and Orlando Franklin at 34.9. At left tackle, King Dunlap was miserable in the seven games he played and at age 31, he doesn’t have much room for improvement. Joe Barksdale played all 16 games at right tackle, a rarity for the Chargers, but allowed 3.5 sacks and blew 12 blocks per Football Outsiders. Health will be a big help to this line, but there’s only so much a group of lackluster players can do.

Defensively, San Diego is a mess. They were 28^th in DVOA on that side of the ball last season and haven’t gotten much better. Their long standoff with third overall pick Joey Bosa means that Bosa barely has any time to do things like learn the playbook and get acclimated to the speed of the NFL game. It doesn’t help that stats-based models don’t love him, but the fact that Bosa may not even play Week 1 because he signed so late is a massive problem. Brandon Mebane is a good signing and will help a run defense that was 31^st in DVOA last year, but it’s not as if he can bring it much higher all by himself. Corey Liuget is a solid piece, but struggled as a pass rusher last season, notching just three sacks, one hit and three hurries per Football Outsiders.

Bosa and Mebane are all San Diego did to improve the front seven as the linebacking corps remains similar to last year. Melvin Ingram is a good pass rusher, but ranked 76^th among edge rushers in run stop rate, per Football Outsiders. Ditto for Jeremiah Attaochu as opponents averaged 3.8 yards per carry on plays where he made the tackle per FO, ranking 90^th among edge rushers. On the inside, Manti Te’o had a miserable 33 percent success rate in coverage and a pedestrian 63 percent run stop rate according to Football Outsiders. Denzel Perryman looks good by comparison, but so would most linebackers. Perryman did play good run defense last season, ranking 12^th among linebackers in run stop rate, per FO, but had a poor 53.3 PFF grade in coverage.

In the secondary, San Diego’s will have great corners on the outside, but there isn’t much at nickel or safety. Jason Verrett was quietly one of the best corners in football last year, putting up a 91.5 PFF grade in coverage grade along with a 61 percent success rate according to Football Outsiders. Newcomer Casey Hayward was also top-20 in success rate and allowed just 6.8 adjusted yards per target according to FO. However, the nickel spot is a black hole. It looks like Steve Williams will occupy it for now, a bad sign given that Williams allowed 9.9 adjusted yards per target on 286 snaps last season, per Football Outsiders. After the departure of Eric Weddle[1], the Chargers are left with Jahleel Addae and Dwight Lowery at safety, a combination that aspires to be average. Addae had an awful 57.4 PFF grade last season and allowed 9.3 adjusted yards per target according to FO. Lowery was slightly better, allowing 7.9 adjusted yards per target which still ranked 46^th among safeties according to Football Outsiders.

With a bad defense, questionable parts on offense and a probable relocation that may be confirmed in the middle of the season, the Chargers are looking at another last place finish. While this team is better than last year’s, the fairly high chance that they’ll play the second half knowing that next year will be in Los Angeles makes for a season that could be even more miserable than 2015.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

[1] The way Weddle, a Chargers lifer, was treated by Dean Spanos is one of the biggest stains on Spanos’ resume in the last 12 months, which is saying a lot.

2016 NFL Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to win the AFC South, the Jacksonville Jaguars.

If the Jaguars are ever going to be competitive, this is the year. Their offense has the chance to be one of the most dynamic in football and there have been enough money and draft capital invested in their defense that Gus Bradley should be able to make something of it. Their division has improved, but it’s open for the taking and the Jaguars are going to capitalize.

 It’s possible that the biggest question mark on their offense is at the quarterback position. Blake Bortles has struggled greatly with his decision-making and accuracy in the past; averaging an interceptable pass every 20.2 attempts last season per Cian Fahey’s charting. He certainly made strides from his rookie year, but continually made bad decisions with the football and relied on an All-Star cast of receivers to bail him out more often than not. Last season’s Broncos showed us that the bar for quarterback play is a lot lower than we thought for Super Bowl champs, not to mention playoff teams, but Bortles remains one of Jacksonville’s biggest obstacles unless he improves.

However, it’s tough to get too worked up about the Jaguars’ quarterback situation when you look at their receivers. Allen Robinson had an unbelievable 2015, racking up 1,400 yards on 80 receptions and making up for bad throw after bad throw. He was eighth among receivers in DYAR, showing a propensity for deep balls, catching 30 of them according to Pro Football Reference’s game charting[1]. Allen Hurns also went for over 1,000 yards and was top-12 in DVOA among wideouts. In those two, the Jaguars have one of the best receiving tandems in all of football. They should also expect to see more out of Julius Thomas at tight end this year. Thomas was hindered by injuries for all of last season but now that he’s healthy, he can be the player Jacksonville envisioned when they signed him to a big deal in free agency two years ago. In 2014, with the Broncos, Thomas was second among tight ends in DVOA and sixth in DYAR. He was also a big red zone threat, catching 12 touchdowns in both 2013 and ’14. It’s worth noting that Thomas had just 34 less receiving yards last season in than in 2014 and if he can be as consistent as two years ago, the Jaguars’ receiving corps becomes downright scary.

Jacksonville’s run game is ready for a big improvement this year as well. Now that the team has signed Chris Ivory, they have two running backs that are capable of 1,000 yards this year in him and sophomore T.J. Yeldon. It’s pretty unlikely that both reach that mark as Yeldon will see the bulk of the carries. That’s tough to argue with given that the Jags spent a second round pick on him last season and he rushed for 740 yards in just 12 games. Ivory, however, is a perfect fit for goal-line situations. With him as their primary back, the Jets had a 35.7 percent DVOA in goal to go situations last season, per Football Outsiders.

The offensive line is a bit of a weak link, but seems passable after the misery of the last few years. Kelvin Beachum gives them some stability at left tackle after the debacle that was Luke Joeckel. Beachum played just six games last year due to injury but had an 85.6 PFF grade in 2014. The downside of Joeckel no longer playing left tackle is that it looks like he will remain on the offensive line as the left guard. At this point, it seems like the Jaguars should just cut ties with Joeckel given that he blew 13 blocks in protection last year, per Football Outsiders, the most of any player on a line that was 25^th in adjusted sack rate. Brandon Linder played decently at guard when healthy last season and it shouldn’t be tough for him to clear the low bar set by Stefen Wisniewski at center after being moved there. At right guard, A.J. Cann blew just three blocks in 861 snaps last season, per Football Outsiders, and Jeremy Parnell had a solid 75.4 PFF grade at right tackle.

Defensively, Gus Bradley finally has the personnel and it’s time for the former Seattle coordinator to prove himself as a head coach. 2015 first round pick Dante Fowler will finally play after tearing his ACL before last season and is expected to make a decent contribution as a pass rusher this season. Bradley and GM Dave Caldwell also signed Malik Jackson from Denver over the offseason, giving the Jaguars’ interior a star. Jackson had an 86.7 PFF grade last season along with five sacks, 10 hits and 22 hurries. His best games were arguably in the postseason, when Denver’s defense suddenly went from really good to the ’85 Bears. Jackson had five tackles and recovered a fumble for a touchdown in the Super Bowl, capping a great season that earned him a big check in free agency. Next to him, Roy Miller and Jared Odrick aren’t stars but both are more than capable. Jacksonville’s defensive line was sneakily top-10 in adjusted line yards and stuff rate last season and having Fowler and Jackson will only help.

At linebacker, the Jaguars have a pretty impressive group after grabbing Myles Jack in the second round of the draft in what could turn out to be one of the biggest steals in recent memory. If Jack can stay healthy—which, in fairness, is a pretty big if—he may be one of the best players in the entire draft. Telvin Smith was a good contributor on the outside last season, racking up 30 defeats, per Football Outsiders. Smith had a 75.9 coverage grade from PFF as well, a good complement to Paul Posluszny’s solid but deteriorating skills in coverage. Posluszny is 32 this year and will likely see a dip from a solid 62 percent success rate, per FO.

Jacksonville’s first round pick, cornerback Jalen Ramsey, is another insanely talented player. The FSU product figures to be an immediate contributor for the Jags, slotting in on the outside opposite Davon House. House went under the radar last season, but did good work for the Jaguars. Despite a lacking secondary around him, House had a 76.4 PFF coverage grade last season with most of his work coming against #1 wideouts. At nickel, Prince Amukamara will be a good contributor if he stays healthy. He had a 79.3 PFF grade in coverage last season along with a solid 52 percent success rate, per FO. Another one of Jacksonville’s acquisitions in free agency was Tashaun Gipson, who gives them a solid presence at safety that they didn’t have in the past. If Johnathan Cyprien can get more consistent, the Jaguars will have a great secondary from top to bottom.

Jacksonville has been incredibly patient with Gus Bradley, letting him and Dave Caldwell take all the time they need in building a team to compete in the AFC South and eventually the playoffs. In the third year of the duo’s regime, they finally have a team that should be able to do at least the former of those tasks.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] They define a deep ball as over 15 yards.

2016 NFL Preview: Indianapolis Colts

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish second in the AFC South, the Indianapolis Colts.

Last year, the Colts missed out on the playoffs thanks to the perfect storm of disaster. They failed to win the worst division in football because Andrew Luck got hurt, exposing all of the mistakes Ryan Grigson and Chuck Pagano made in constructing a team that was supposed to contend for the Super Bowl. Without Luck, the front office’s incompetence was on full display, from bad free agent signings to a miserable offensive line to a defense that just wasn’t good enough. Instead of firing Grigson and Pagano, who had a bad relationship in addition to doing a bad job running the Colts, owner Jim Irsay kept them both. His football team will reap the rewards this season.

Collectively, the football-viewing public has decided that Andrew Luck’s horrible; no good, very bad 2015 was a fluke. Whether the excuse is injuries or simply a shrug of the shoulders, there is an expectation that Luck will return to his 2014 level of play. While this is more likely than Luck’s poor play last year becoming the norm, we shouldn’t ignore the fact that Andrew Luck played badly in 2015, even if he was hurt and the team around him was bad. Luck played just seven games but threw 12 picks, averaging an interceptable pass every 15.4 attempts, per Cian Fahey’s charting. Luck averaged just 5.04 adjusted net yards per attempt, had a -17.5 percent DVOA and -126 DYAR. Engaging in willful ignorance and putting all of this aside just because Andrew Luck has pedigree is ridiculous, especially when you consider that the team around him isn’t much better than it was last year. It’s reasonable to say that 2015 may have been an outlier, but Luck struggled with turnovers before. It’s not unfair, or wrong, to say that there is a question mark over Luck thanks to his 2015 performance.

The skill positions for the Colts’ offense are largely the same as last year. For the running game, this is a problem as the Colts were 30^th in rushing DVOA and Frank Gore is now 33 years old. Father time finally came for Gore last year as he averaged less than four yards per carry for the first time in his career, clocking in at 3.7. This was also the first time that Gore played all 16 games and rushed for less than 1,000 yards. The Colts need a solution at this position and completely failed to find one in the offseason, sticking with Gore for lack of a better option. With what will likely be a one-dimensional offense, the Colts continue to put themselves in a position to fail.

The receiving corps is fine, but it won’t make up for other deficiencies on the offense. T.Y. Hilton saw his numbers decline last season, but it’s likely that had more to do with Luck being out than anything. I’d expect something closer to the 82 receptions and 1,345 yards he racked up in 2014 than the 69-1,124 from last year, but even so, Hilton isn’t the type of receiver DeAndre Hopkins is in Houston or Allen Robinson is in Jacksonville. Ditto for Donte Moncrief, who put up decent numbers last year but doesn’t figure to be a star. Phillip Dorsett is a question mark after a rookie year in which he didn’t get much of a chance to contribute and Dwayne Allen has never been much of a pass-catcher at tight end.

The offensive line has improved after the Colts drafted Ryan Kelly to play center, but there are still question marks on the right side. Hugh Thornton had a 46.8 PFF grade last season and is the likely starter at right guard while right tackle Joe Reitz allowed three sacks, committed nine penalties and had a 51.5 PFF grade in run blocking last season. While Anthony Castonzo and Jack Mewhort should form a solid tandem on the left and Kelly is expected to be an immediate contributor, this line is still far from complete.

Indy’s offense will probably be solid, even with the question marks, but their defense is likely to be a disaster. The best positional group will be the line, where Henry Anderson and Kendall Langford can both provide good production, particularly in run defense. Anderson is the rare Grigson draft pick that looks good a year out, even after an injury halted his rookie year after nine games. He had an 86 percent run stop rate, per Football Outsiders. Langford bested that with a 90 percent mark, per FO, and was a solid pass rusher as well. He had seven sacks, 10 hits and 17.5 hurries last season according to Football Outsiders, much needed output for a team that was 28^th in adjusted sack rate last season. At nose tackle, however, David Parry is a question mark after a paltry 47.3 PFF grade in 2015.

Linebacker is where problems start to crop up for the Colts. Their best pass rusher last season was Robert Mathis, but Mathis is 34 years old this season and has dealt with serious injury in the past. Fellow OLB Trent Cole is also 34 and the Colts are depending on his production as well. It’s probably not a smart bet to depend on two 34-year olds to play roughly 1,000 combined snaps, but it’s one that the Colts have made regardless.

On the inside, D’Qwell Jackson is 33 and struggled last year, posting a middling 57 percent success rate and 5.2 adjusted yards per target, according to FO, along with a 39.0 PFF grade in run defense. Jerrell Freeman is more than capable; particularly in coverage where he led all linebackers in adjusted yards per target, but one good player can’t make up for the litany of holes the Colts have at the position.

Vontae Davis was supposed to be the lone reliable player in the secondary, but suffered an ankle injury and is now out indefinitely. This leaves Indy with one of the worst coverage units in football. It looks like Patrick Robinson will be their #1 corner which might be manageable if they had better players surrounding him, but they don’t. The Colts brought in Antonio Cromartie as Davis’ replacement which is laughable given that Cromartie was a consistent liability for the Jets last season. He gave up 8.9 adjusted yards per target, 64^th among corners according to Football Outsiders, and had a 49.0 PFF grade which ranked 84^th at the position. D’Joun Smith played just four games last year and will probably be the nickel. If not, it’ll be Darius Butler, who had a 43 percent success rate last season, per FO.

At safety, Clayton Geathers and Mike Adams form a tandem that is the polar opposite of formidable. Adams is 35 and posted a 45 percent success rate last season along with 10.5 adjusted yards per target according to FO. Geathers played just 271 snaps but had a 48.7 PFF grade, rounding out a defense that may be the worst of any team with legitimate playoff aspirations.

The Colts have a fundamentally flawed roster outside of the quarterback position, which comes with its own set of question marks. With a much better AFC South, Indianapolis won’t be able to beat up on the division anymore. These two factors add up to yet another disappointing year for the Colts, except this time it will end with Grigson and Pagano being jettisoned—the way it should have last season.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

2016 NFL Preview: Houston Texans

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish third in the AFC South, the Houston Texans.

I stumped for Brock Osweiler last season, when the Broncos were unsure whether to start him or Peyton Manning late in the season. Not because I thought Osweiler was particularly good, I did so because I thought Peyton Manning was particularly horrible. I felt the same way about picking Osweiler over Manning that people like Jeb Bush will feel when they go to vote this November.

The Texans are a bit more devoted in their support. So devoted, in fact, that they handed Osweiler $72 million to be their quarterback of the future before head coach Bill O’Brien had even met him. It’s kind of like if you donated $100 to one of the candidates without actually having heard what their positions are, only instead of donating money, the Texans’ coaching staff and front office is betting their jobs.  In most cases, that’s not a really smart bet and this is no exception.

In the eight games Osweiler played last season, he was very okay. However, that was when we were comparing him with Peyton Manning, who was one of the worst quarterbacks in football for large chunks of the year. Put Osweiler’s numbers in a vacuum and Houston’s decision to lay their future on the line for him becomes even more perplexing. Osweiler threw an interceptable pass every 21.2 attempts and had a 76.2 percent accuracy rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting. He averaged 5.86 adjusted net yards per attempt, which was less than Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates and Brandon Weeden combined to average last season for the Texans and would have ranked 24^th in the league if Osweiler was a team. There was also a dramatic split between Osweiler’s play in the first and second half of games as his completion percentage dropped from 72.36 to 53.90 and his passer rating from 104.1 to 73.3. General manager Rick Smith may have made a bet even worse than the one described above.

Given that Osweiler isn’t all too different from Brian Hoyer, the Texans’ quarterback for the majority of last season; it’s unlikely that the passing game, ranked 22^nd in DVOA last year, changes much. DeAndre Hopkins is an All-Pro caliber wideout with a catch radius that rivals anyone in the NFL. However, the difference between Osweiler and Hoyer isn’t big enough that we’ll see a big upward or downward jolt in his performance. In Houston’s ideal world, rookie Will Fuller and sophomore Jaelen Strong combine to round out a receiving corps that was sorely lacking in depth last year. There are good arguments for and against this happening. Projection systems and stats-based models love Fuller, but he didn’t have great hands or a litany of other traits that scouts value at Notre Dame. Strong had a good pedigree coming into his rookie year but didn’t get on the field much, being targeted just 24 times. There’s also some type of role for Braxton Miller, even if that role remains somewhat unclear.

The biggest change to the offense comes in the running game, where the Texans have effectively swapped Arian Foster for Lamar Miller. Miller rushed for only 872 yards last season, but that was mostly due to an incompetent coaching staff in Miami deciding to ignore him. Miller averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year and 5.1 in 2014, when the Dolphins were aware of his existence. His 85.6 PFF grade was fourth among running backs and he also caught nearly 50 passes. Miller gives Houston a competent rushing attack that they didn’t have last season with Foster either hurt or ineffective, but their gains here may be offset by losses on the offensive line.

Left tackle Duane Brown was their best lineman last year and will likely start the year on the PUP list. Additionally, Brown is 31 years old and it’s tough to believe he’ll be the same guy once he returns. Rookie center Nick Martin is out for the year after an ankle injury, setting the stage for a completely makeshift offensive line at least until Brown returns. Left guard Xavier Su’a-Filo had a poor 52.0 PFF grade last season while right tackle Derek Newton allowed seven sacks and blew 11 blocks in protection, per Football Outsiders. Jeff Allen, the right guard, may be the only reliable player on the starting line in Week 1.

Defensively, the Texans are solid up front and filled with questions in the secondary. It’s unclear whether J.J. Watt will miss games, but it doesn’t seem he’ll miss more than one or two, if any. Watt led the league in sacks, hits, hurries, run tackles for loss, QB knockdowns, defeats, opposing yards per carry on run tackles, and approximate value last season, so the sooner he’s back, the better. Watt’s probably the best defensive player this side of Lawrence Taylor and his presence alone makes the Texans’ pass rush formidable.

Outside of Watt, most of Houston’s pass rush will come from outside linebacker. Whitney Mercilus had 12.5 sacks in 2015 while playing solid run defense and Jadeveon Clowney is formidable when healthy. In 562 snaps last year, Clowney had 4.5 sacks, five hits and 18.5 hurries, per Football Outsiders. If he can play closer to 800 snaps this year, the Texans will look a lot better for selecting him at #1 overall in 2014.

Next to Watt on the line, both Vince Wilfork and Devon Still come into the year as question marks. Wilfork was a solid run defender last year, but it’s a question as to whether that can continue at age 35. On the other hand, Still wasn’t even in the league last season.

Despite that, the front seven still looks pretty good as a whole. At inside linebacker, Brian Cushing had a solid 73 percent run stop rate and 60 percent success rate in coverage, per Football Outsiders. There are some worries with him—Cushing allowed 7.0 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders—but he remains a net positive. Benardrick McKinney had a solid 77.8 PFF grade last season and, at age 24, is likely to improve.

The biggest concern is the secondary. Kareem Jackson had a 60.9 coverage grade from PFF last season to complement a terrible 40 percent success rate according to Football Outsiders. Johnathan Joseph had a decent 2015, but it’s tough to expect him to duplicate it at age 32. Kevin Johnson had a 66.3 PFF grade and while his 7.3 adjusted yards per target isn’t disastrous, it’s not far off. At safety, Andre Hal is 24 and coming off a good year. He may be the only reliable piece in this secondary as Quinton Demps is 31 and was 30^th among safeties in success rate last year, per Football Outsiders.

With a largely similar team from last year, I can’t see the Texans improving much. Despite their 9-7 record, they were 18^th in DVOA and failed to keep pace with the Jaguars or Colts, both of whom could see big improvements this year. With the Osweiler bet doomed to fail, it just doesn’t look like the Texans can muster another year of faux-contention.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

2016 NFL Preview: Tennessee Titans

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish fourth in the AFC South, the Tennessee Titans.

The Titans are just miserable.

They were the worst team in football last season by record and weighted DVOA, finishing at 3-13 after an encouraging start. There are legitimate questions about how committed ownership is to winning and management has made perplexing decisions like hiring Mike Mularkey after a disastrous stint as interim head coach last season. Tennessee even knew how bad this was when they made the move, dumping the news that Mularkey had been hired during a playoff game so that nobody saw it or paid much attention. Mularkey is trying to run an “exotic smashmouth offense,” straight out of the 1990’s and is 4-21 in his last two years as a head coach and his statements have even made me question whether or not the Titans can develop Marcus Mariota into the star he should become.

Everything we saw from Mariota last season, from Day 1, disproved any notion of him being a system quarterback or anything of the like. If the Titans had made an attempt to find the right coach for Mariota, it would not have been tough to turn him into a star. He might be good enough to be a star even with Mularkey at the helm; it will just be much harder. Mariota is the type of quarterback who seems able to thrive in any scenario. He had one of the worst receiving corps in the league last year and played just 12 games but still looked great. As a rookie, he had a 78 percent accuracy rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting, and threw just 10 picks. If you like historical comparisons (I don’t, because it’s easy to cherry pick just like I’m doing here); Peyton Manning threw 28 interceptions in his rookie year which led the league. Mariota is extremely advanced for such a young quarterback and will only get better. For Titans fans, he’s a ray of hope in a sea more polluted than the Hudson River of the mid-70’s.

Tennessee’s moves at running back this offseason simply did not make logical sense. Trading a draft pick for DeMarco Murray, then drafting Derrick Henry in the second round is a nonsensical way to use assets, especially for a team that has as many holes to fill as the Titans. I don’t think Murray is particularly good—as a matter of fact I’d be surprised if Henry wasn’t the starting running back by Week 10—but if the Titans’ front office thinks he’s good enough to trade a pick for, then they shouldn’t spend another pick on a running back likely to supplant him. It’s yet another sign of poor management; one that emphasizes potential ticket sales that come with college stars like Henry over helping the team win in the long term by drafting players to help a terrible defense.

The Titans also drafted the wrong offensive lineman at #8 overall[1], taking Jack Conklin over Laremy Tunsil because of the gas mask bong video. Sure, there’s a chance Conklin develops into a solid player but there is not a draft analyst on the planet who believes that he’ll be better—now or ever—than Tunsil. Taylor Lewan improved last season, but he’s still a question mark going into his third season in the league. He needs to take a bigger step this year as the Titans can’t really afford to have a left tackle that allowed 4.5 sacks and committed 10 penalties the way Lewan did last season. At guard, Tennessee is a work in progress. Quinton Spain and Chance Warmack are probably both stopgaps but both are young enough that if either improves, they’ll be with the team for the few seasons. Ben Jones was a decent signing at center as he was top-20 at the position by PFF grading and blew just one run block last season, per Football Outsiders.

Tennessee’s receiving corps certainly improved over the offseason but that’s not saying much. Rishard Matthews is certainly an improvement—the former Dolphin was great by DVOA last season—but he probably shouldn’t be a #1 receiver given that he’s never had over 67 targets in a season. Tajae Sharpe, the Titans’ fifth-round pick, has impressed so far in training camp and the preseason. If the Titans have found something in him, it will go a long way towards improving a group that had a 9.0 failed reception rate on Mariota’s pass attempts, the worst mark in football per Cian Fahey’s charting. Kendall Wright struggled last season, finishing with a -8.1 percent DVOA and just 21 DYAR while Delanie Walker, the tight end, is the best pass-catcher on the team. He had 94 receptions and 1,088 yards in 2015, finishing fifth among tight ends in DYAR and second in PFF grading. He’s one of the few reliable pieces on this offense as a tight end that can create matchup problems and create terror by going up the seam.

Defensively, the Titans are riddled with holes. Jurrell Casey is a star, but he can’t hold up an entire defensive line. Al Woods didn’t have a single sack last season and posted just one hit and one hurry, per Football Outsiders, in 356 snaps. DaQuan Jones was fine in run defense but also did not have a sack last season, posting a lackluster 69.8 PFF pass rush grade. The Titans simply need more pass rushing production from this line than they got last season. Although most of the linebackers did well sack-wise, it’s simply not okay that two of their three starting defensive linemen did not have a sack in 2015.

Wesley Woodyard is underrated at linebacker as he led the position in success rate last season, per Football Outsiders, and played good run defense. Despite his age, the Titans may have a star if he can follow that up with another good year. Avery Williamson had a horrific 28 percent success rate and allowed 8.3 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders. He also had a 61 percent run stop rate, per Football Outsiders, and a 57.8 PFF grade. On the edge, Brian Orakpo had a decent 2015 but he’s 30 this year and struggled as a run defender. His seven sacks, three hits and 18.5 hurries may have offset a 56 percent run stop rate last season, per Football Outsiders, but he may not be a productive enough rusher for the same thing to happen this year. Derrick Morgan had a solid but uninspiring 2015, putting up a 75 percent run stop rate along with 4.5 sacks, five hits and 14.5 hurries, per Football Outsiders. If he was on a better unit, Morgan and Woodyard might stand out but the Titans’ defense was 30^th in weighted DVOA last season, making it impossible for anyone to look that good.

One of the biggest reasons the defense struggled so much was the secondary. Jason McCourty being healthy this year will certainly help, even if 2014 was a down year for him. Perrish Cox struggled in his first year as a Titan, posting a 43 percent success rate along with 8.1 adjusted yards per target. With Cox as the #1 corner last season, the Titans were 27^th in DVOA against #1 wideouts. McCourty’s presence will likely help that, although it’s tough to say how much. New arrivals Brice McCain and Antwon Blake are unlikely to do the same. McCain had a 58.6 PFF grade last season along with a 49 percent success rate which paled in comparison to Blake’s truly awful 40 percent, per Football Outsiders. Both also allowed at least 8.5 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders, and it’s tough to imagine either contributing positively this year. Da’Norris Searcy was a solid piece at safety last year, ranking eighth with 5.0 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders. However, Damion Stafford struggled with a 63.7 PFF grade in just 331 snaps.

The Titans, with the exception of Mariota, are the epitome of a bad football team. From the top down, they are a franchise that doesn’t seem to place an emphasis on winning; a bad sign for a team that is in dire need of a good rebuild.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] They traded the first overall pick in a rare move by this front office that I wholeheartedly approve.

2016 NFL Preview: Cincinnati Bengals

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish first in the AFC North, the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals were one of football’s best teams in 2015 and they’re going to start right back where they left off. If not for Andy Dalton’s injury, Cincinnati would have made a deep run last January. They were second in DVOA and fifth in weighted DVOA last year, nearly beating a great Steelers’ team in the playoffs despite missing their quarterback. Now that he’s back and healthy, Cincinnati is set to finally win in the postseason under Marvin Lewis.

One of my biggest gripes coming into last year had to do with Andy Dalton. I thought he had failed to develop into even a Dilfer Zone quarterback and that the Bengals would miss the playoffs thanks to him. By Week 3, I had been proven wrong. Dalton was second among quarterbacks in DVOA and fourth in DYAR despite essentially missing four games. He threw just seven picks with a career-best 1.8 percent interception rate, fixing what had been one of his biggest issues in the past. Dalton was second in accuracy percentage, per Cian Fahey’s charting, and averaged 8.17 adjusted net yards per attempt, which was second in the league. Dalton wasn’t just a Dilfer Zone quarterback; he was a star quarterback, as the Bengals led the league in passing offense DVOA.

I don’t buy the argument that the receiving corps has taken a big hit. It certainly won’t help Cincinnati that Marvin Jones is gone, but unless Tyler Eifert misses significant time with his injury, things should be fine. It does look like Eifert will miss some time this season but just how much remains to be seen. Recent reports seem to indicate that it won’t be more than three or four games but the margin of error seems to be a couple games in either direction. His presence is key for this offense after a breakout season in which Eifert led all tight ends (including Rob Gronkowski) in both DVOA and DYAR. Eifert is a prototypical tight end to play in Y-ISO and a huge red zone threat. If the Bengals decide to let him loose, we could think of him on the same level as Gronk by the end of this season. A.J. Green is also coming off his fifth straight Pro Bowl and all of them have been well-deserved. Green had 1,297 receiving yards last season, raking in 86 catches and 10 touchdowns. He was also third among wideouts in DYAR and fourth in PFF grading. As long as he’s in Cincinnati, their receiving corps will be fine.

Brandon LaFell is certainly a potential issue, but I don’t see the Bengals relying on him a ton. Once Eifert is healthy, LaFell will be Dalton’s third target at best. Tyler Boyd, the Bengals’ second round pick, could also pass LaFell in the pecking order pretty easily, as the Pitt product had a high catch rate and can slot right in as a possession receiver.

Cincinnati’s offensive line is going to be among the league’s best as well. Andrew Whitworth was an All-Pro last season and had an 88.5 PFF grade, fourth among tackles, ranking second among left tackles in snaps per blown block according to Football Outsiders. Not to be outdone, Clint Boling was first among left guards in the category, per Football Outsiders. Center Russell Bodine had some struggles last season but it’s tough to expose him given that he’s flanked by Boling and Kevin Zeitler. Zeitler was just outside the top- 10 in PFF grading among guards and didn’t allow a sack in all of 2015, per Football Outsiders. Cedric Ogbuehi will be a good replacement for Andre Smith at right tackle as Ogbuehi graded well on PFF and did not blow a block last season according to Football Outsiders in limited snaps. The best part of this line is how well-rounded it is. Some linemen have singular skill-sets, excelling in run blocking but failing horribly in protection but Cincinnati was first in adjusted line yards and sixth in pressure rate last season according to Football Outsiders.

Their run game has become somewhat underrated as well, mostly because neither Jeremy Hill nor Giovani Bernard was good in fantasy football last season. However, the Bengals were seventh in rushing offense DVOA and with both Hill and Bernard, have great depth at the position. Bernard averaged 4.7 yards per carry last season on 730 rushing yards and was considered the back-up. Jeremy Hill had a 49 percent success rate and might lose the starting job. Almost no other team has two players this good at running back.

Defensively, the Bengals were top-10 in DVOA last season and could easily get there again in 2016. Geno Atkins had a career year in 2015 and anchors a solid defensive line. Atkins was elected to his second All-Pro team after 11 sacks, nine hits and 29.5 hits along with stunning 93 percent run stop rate, per Football Outsiders. Carlos Dunlap is a star edge rusher, putting up 13.5 sacks, 20 hits and 37.5 hurries last year along with 13 AV. Domata Peko may be a question mark given he’s aging and coming off a bad year, but like Bodine on the offensive line, he’s surrounded by great players. Even edge rusher Michael Johnson put up solid numbers last year with five sacks, 12 hits and 15.5 hurries, per Football Outsiders, along with an 82.5 run defense grade from PFF.

At linebacker, the main concern is Vontaze Burfict’s three game suspension and rightfully so. He’s one of the best linebackers in the league, posting a 97.1 run defense grade from PFF and allowing just 3.2 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders. It’s also a legitimate concern the type of behavior he exhibited in the Wild Card game against Pittsburgh could easily occur again. Burfict has a history and will be on a short leash with the league after such a poor display in the postseason. At middle linebacker, Ray Maualuga had solid numbers last season with a 58 percent success rate, per Football Outsiders, and 77.9 PFF grade while Karlos Dansby may have something to contribute even at age 35. Dansby was second among linebackers in success rate and fifth in adjusted yards per target last season according to Football Outsiders, so we may see a lot of him. Vincent Rey had an awful 35 percent success rate last season, per Football Outsiders, and is one of the biggest issues on a mostly pristine defense.

After the departures of Reggie Nelson and Leon Hall, the secondary will certainly take a step down from last year although I doubt it will be anything close to a liability. Adam Jones was quietly one of the better corners in football last year, ranking top-5 in success rate and adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders. That’s likely to come down a little given that Jones is 33 this season but I don’t think the drop-off will be too drastic. Darqueeze Dennard played well in a limited sample size last season, posting a 73.4 PFF grade, and could take over the nickel corner position full-time this year. Dre Kirkpatrick is going to be a big hole for the secondary unless there’s a dramatic improvement from last season, in which he had a 38.8 PFF grade, but the success of this unit is going to depend on how well Shawn Williams does in replacing Reggie Nelson. That’s not an enviable task given that Nelson intercepted eight balls last season and was one of the beset safeties in football, but Williams was solid last year in 474 snaps. His 79.8 PFF grade in coverage and 85 percent success rate, per Football Outsiders, give off good signs but it’s impossible to know whether that will translate when he becomes the starter. At the other safety position, George Iloka is just fine, ranking 15^th at the position in PFF grading with a 65 percent success rate.

The defense certainly has its question marks, but if things go well, it can be just as good as last year. With Dalton back and healthy, the Bengals are set to do what they couldn’t last season and win a game or two in January.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

2016 NFL Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish second in the AFC North, the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Last season, adversity stared the Steelers in the face and the Steelers stared right back. They survived five games without Ben Roethlisberger, five without Martavis Bryant as well as season-ending injuries to Le’Veon Bell, DeAngelo Williams, Kelvin Beachum and Maurkice Pouncey.  They rode a high-powered offensive attack and a dramatically improved defense to a 10-6 record and a victory in the wild card round against the Bengals.

This season, before any games have been played, there’s even more adversity facing the Steelers. Le’Veon Bell is suspended for three games and Martavis Bryant for the entire season. I don’t think they’ll be able to overcome it this time.

Okay, let me clarify that a little. I don’t think the Steelers will make the playoffs. I have them missing the wild card narrowly to the Chiefs and Broncos and losing the division by two or three games to the Bengals. They’re still a very good football team and could very easily make the playoffs and go far and make me look stupid for writing this. But the AFC is stacked this year and there are going to be three or four teams that look good all year and miss the postseason because they play in the AFC instead of the NFC. The Steelers will still be among the top of the league in offense but their defense will sink them and Bryant’s suspension, combined with injury risk to Roethlisberger and Bell knocks the offense down a peg from last season.

In 2015, the Steelers were .500 in games where either Michael Vick or Landry Jones threw at least 10 passes. That saved them a postseason berth and will not happen again if Roethlisberger gets hurt. If you think I’m grasping at straws, Roethlisberger has missed at least three starts in three of the last six seasons and even a small number of games matters a lot when the conference will be this competitive. His health is far from a sure thing.

If Roethlisberger does stay healthy, I don’t see his play declining much despite his turning 34 years old during the offseason. He led all quarterbacks in PFF grading last season, was second in QBR and fifth in DYAR. He threw for 3,809 yards despite missing four games and you had asked someone who didn’t know better, they would have said that Roethlisberger looked closer to 28 than 33.

Le’Veon Bell’s situation is similar to Roethlisberger’s. If he’s healthy, he’s a perennial All-Pro, but Bell has gotten hurt two years in a row[1]. He’s also suspended for three games and coming off of MCL and PCL tears. As good as he is it may not be until Week 6 or 7 that we see him back to being his former self. I’m skeptical that DeAngelo Williams can have a repeat of last season if Bell does get hurt. Williams averaged 4.2 and 3.6 yards per carry in the two seasons before last, when that number shot up to 4.5. Given that Williams is 33 this year, I’m confident that 2015 was an outlier.

There are some slight worries about the receiving corps. Obviously Antonio Brown is the best receiver in football and I don’t think that’s about to change. Over the last two seasons, Antonio Brown has had 136 and 129 receptions, which are second and fourth all-time for a single season.  Last year, he also had a 70 percent catch rate, which would be great if you cut Brown’s targets in half. What gives me pause is Bryant’s suspension. Markus Wheaton has been fine as Pittsburgh’s #3 option, but it’s a question mark as to whether he can face #2 corners and still succeed. I’m not a believer in Sammie Coates or Darrius Heyward-Bey and one of them will wind up in the role Wheaton had last season. At tight end, I think the Steelers picked the wrong replacement for Heath Miller. Ladarius Green was supposed to supplant Antonio Gates at the position for the Chargers last season when Gates was suspended at the start of the year. Even though he had four of his best games of the season, Green failed to do so. In the other nine games he played last season, Green had a 45 percent catch rate and just 205 receiving yards, confirming the coaching staff’s decision to hand the starting job back to Gates.

There may be some issues on the offensive line as well. Pittsburgh certainly has one of the best interior lines in football with Ramon Foster, Maurkice Pouncey and David DeCastro, but their tackle situation is unenviable. Left tackle Ryan Harris blew 10.5 blocks in protection last season, per Football Outsiders, and had a 40.0 PFF grade. Right tackle Marcus Gilbert was an issue in run blocking as the Steelers ranked 32^nd in adjusted line yards when running to the right end. They were in the top-5 when running to every other direction except the middle, where they were 12^th.

Assuming health, the Steelers are going to have a great offense almost no matter what. However, there are just enough question marks that I think it slides down a few spots from last season and fails to make up for some of the defensive holes the Steelers have.

Pittsburgh was a solid defensive team last season, ranking 11^th in defensive DVOA, but I don’t think they can repeat that. In the trenches, Cam Heyward and Stephon Tuitt are both solid, but Daniel McCullers is a massive question mark. Although Heyward’s run defense may be a slight issue as he was 45^th among linemen in run stop rate, per Football Outsiders, both he and Tuitt are proficient pass rushers and were graded well by PFF last season. McCullers hasn’t seen much playing time during his two years in the NFL and this year will be a test for him.  It’s also worth noting that although the Steelers were seventh in adjusted sack rate last year, they were also 24^th in pressure rate, per Football Outsiders, which probably indicates that a drop is coming in the former category.

Linebacker is where there could be a lot of issues. James Harrison is their only projected starter with a PFF grade above 51.5 and he’s 38 this season. He could also face a suspension depending on the outcome of his interview with the league office regarding PED allegations made in a January Al-Jazeera report. Bud Dupree, slated to start alongside Harrison at outside linebacker, was ranked 109^th among edge rushers by PFF last season. He had a lackluster 69 percent run stop rate, per Football Outsiders, and a 44.9 pass rush grade from PFF. On the inside, Lawrence Timmons is 30 and coming off an awful season. He had just a 51 percent success rate in coverage and allowed 6.4 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders. He had a 29.3 PFF grade in run defense as well. Ryan Shazier has potential but failed to live up to it last season. Shazier was 62^nd among linebackers with an awful 43 percent success rate in coverage according to Football Outsiders. He struggled in run defense as well, posting a 46.3 PFF grade in the category.

The secondary could be an issue as well. Ross Cockrell was terrible last season with a 46 percent success rate and 8.9 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders. The Steelers were also 26^th in DVOA versus #1 wideouts. William Gay had the lowest target percentage in the league among corners according to Football Outsiders, but with Antwon Blake gone, he’ll see an uptick. That’s a bad sign given that Gay is on the wrong side of 30 and ranked 53^rd in adjusted yards per target two years ago, when targeted 89 times per Football Outsiders. The Steelers also picked Artie Burns in the first round, but he’s not developed enough to play corner in the NFL. Burns is very athletic, but that only gets you so far. Expecting him to slot right in for the Steelers is like placing a very smart fifth-grader in high school and expecting straight-A’s. At safety, Mike Mitchell is solid but Robert Golden is a question mark. In 390 snaps last season, Golden had a 51 percent success rate, per Football Outsiders. That needs to get better if Golden takes a bigger role this year.

Last year, Pittsburgh’s defense had a surprisingly good season but I don’t think that will happen again as there are just too many holes for Mike Tomlin and Keith Butler to patch up. The Steelers may be a great offensive team, but there are enough questions, suspensions and health concerns that they’ll probably be a little bit worse than last year. Take all of that and a much more competitive AFC playoff picture into account and the Steelers will be the odd man out.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] In 2014, he played all 16 regular season games but missed Pittsburgh’s playoff loss to Baltimore due to injury.

2016 NFL Preview: Baltimore Ravens

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish third in the AFC North, the Baltimore Ravens.

Last season, the Ravens were an injury-riddled mess. Terrell Suggs, Steve Smith, Justin Forsett, Joe Flacco and Jeremy Zuttah all played 10 or less games, effectively killing their season. This year, some are peddling a comeback narrative, but what’s being overlooked is that the 2015 Ravens were terrible before everyone got hurt. Through seven weeks last season, the Ravens were 1-6 and could have been 0-7 if Josh Scobee hasn’t missed a 41-yard field goal for the Steelers in Week 3. With the exception of Suggs, who tore his Achilles in Week 1, everyone named above was healthy for all of those games. It wasn’t until Smith got hurt in Week 7 that the wheels fell off in terms of injuries.

With that in mind, there isn’t much reason to believe the Ravens are much more than an average team this season. Joe Flacco is still a Dilfer Zone quarterback at age 31, but it’s closer than you think. In the 10 games he played last year, Flacco threw an interceptable pass every 24.3 attempts, per Cian Fahey’s charting. He had a lackluster 40.9 QBR and a flat-out poor -10.5 percent DVOA and to cap it off, 2015 was also the second time in the last three years that PFF has graded Flacco as below-average.  If he doesn’t improve at least to the level he was at two years ago, it won’t be a question of whether or not he can live up to the mammoth contract extension he received after Super Bowl XLVII but whether or not Baltimore should move on from him.

Justin Forsett certainly experienced a downturn from his breakout 2014 season, but he remains an above-average runner. In 10 games last season, Forsett was top-10 in DVOA with a respectable 46 percent success rate. The biggest reason people have pointed to decline is a drop from 5.4 yards per carry in 2014 to 4.2 in 2015. Some of that is certainly Forsett, but I would argue that much of it comes from the offensive line.

Two years ago, the Ravens were third in adjusted line yards but last season they were 14^th. This year, with multiple personnel changes, the offensive line has gotten even worse. The Ravens drafted Ronnie Stanley at #6 overall over Laremy Tunsil because of the video that came out of Tunsil smoking out of a gas mask bong. This was somewhat inexplicable as Tunsil would have given them a potential All-Pro tackle for the next decade while Stanley will take some developing at the very least. At left guard, John Urschel struggled last season, posting a 42.1 PFF grade and just three AV. Center Jeremy Zuttah has been solid for a long time but is turning 30 this year and we could see his play begin to decline. Marshal Yanda is the best guard in football and there’s nothing bad that anyone can say about him. The same cannot be said for right tackle Ricky Wagner, the recipient of a 44.4 PFF grade last season. Wagner blew eight blocks in 2015, including five in protection, per Football Outsiders.

The receiving corps is dotted with questions. Steve Smith Sr. is 37 years old and coming off an Achilles tear. Every football fan should hope he’s the exact same player because things are more fun when Steve Smith Sr. is around, but whether he will be is far from certain. Breshad Perriman has yet to play an NFL snap and although reports out of training camp are positive, we should take them with a grain of salt until Perriman steps on an NFL field, in uniform. Kamar Aiken had a good 2015 in the wake of all the other receivers getting hurt and may be the most reliable player at the position for Baltimore. He had an encouraging 944 receiving yards and 101 DYAR last year. At tight end, Ben Watson is coming off a career year in New Orleans but the only other time the 35-year old came within 100 yards of the 825 he accumulated last season was in 2010.

Defensively, this is nowhere near the same Ravens team that was atop the league for years. Baltimore is fine—they were 18^th in weighted defensive DVOA last season even after all of the injuries—but this defense isn’t carrying them to the playoffs.

Although it’s decidedly average, the defensive line will likely be the best positional group on this unit. Lawrence Guy and Timmy Jernigan both had PFF grades in the mid-70’s last season and their numbers were nearly identical. Jernigan had an 80 percent run stop rate and Guy had a 79 percent run stop rate, per Football Outsiders. Jernigan had 11 defeats and Guy had 12, also per Football Outsiders. Brandon Williams is another solid piece at nose tackle. He’s a stout run defender, posting a 93.9 run defense grade from PFF last year, but struggles as a pass rusher. Williams had just two sacks, two hits and five hurries last season, per Football Outsiders.

Linebacker is where we start to see a lot of question marks. Terrell Suggs is 33 and coming off a torn Achilles. It’s not going out on a limb to call it unlikely that we see the same Suggs who had 12 sacks in 2014. Elvis Dumervil, their other well-known edge rusher, has already seen the effects of the aging curve. His six sacks, 16 hits and 28.5 hurries was a decline from 2014, when he was an All-Pro, and his run defense fell off a cliff. Dumervil was 64^th among edge rushers in oppositional yards per carry when involved in the play and had a 55.2 run defense grade from PFF. C.J. Mosley isn’t very old but he too had a lot of decline from an outstanding rookie season. His coverage was where he had the most overt deterioration as Mosley had just a 54 percent success rate, per Football Outsiders, and a 49.9 PFF coverage grade. Zach Orr seems most likely to fill the other inside linebacker spot and although he was fine last season Orr has never started an NFL game.

Don’t expect the secondary to be world-beaters either. Cornerback was a big hole last season and hasn’t changed much. Jimmy Smith had just a 49 percent success rate, allowing 8.6 adjusted yards per target last season, and remains the #1 corner. Shareece Wright was slightly better although his 74.8 PFF grade came in just 485 snaps and Ravens’ fans shouldn’t be very confident if Kyle Arrington or Matt Elam winds up at nickel corner. The acquisition of Eric Weddle marks an improvement at safety but it remains to be seen how much Weddle has left in the tank. At 31, Weddle is coming off a lackluster season (by his standards) that saw him post a 77.8 PFF grade and 6.5 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders. At age 31, Lardarius Webb is shifting to safety full-time and if neither he nor Weddle are affected by the aging curve, they could form a formidable tandem. Webb was sixth among defensive backs in success rate last season and defensed 10 passes.

Right now, the Ravens look like a very average football team unless things go well. In a division that includes the Bengals and Steelers, two teams that think of themselves as Super Bowl contenders, average doesn’t get you very far.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

2016 NFL Preview: Cleveland Browns

Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish fourth in the AFC North, the Cleveland Browns.

Even under a new regime, the Browns’ misery isn’t going to end anytime soon. That’s not a knock on Hue Jackson, Sashi Brown or any move that Cleveland has made this offseason. I was a fan of both hires as well as most of their moves during the offseason but none of that will result in immediate change. The Browns simply had too many holes to plug, the result of years and years of inept management. It didn’t matter who they brought in this offseason—it could have been the ghost of Vince Lombardi or my dog—it will take multiple years to even get the Browns back to .500. The organization’s biggest problem for years has been a lack of patience and if they’re ever going to rebuild, that’s the first thing that needs fixing.

The first and most obvious problem for the Browns is at quarterback. Robert Griffin III hasn’t played a regular season snap yet for the Browns but it’s already pretty clear that he isn’t anything close to a long-term solution there. Griffin didn’t play at all last year in Washington and hasn’t been an effective quarterback since his rookie year in 2012. There is a litany of reasons for that; the biggest two being a failure to develop as a passer and the ravaging effect that injuries have on his ability to run. Hue Jackson has a great track record in terms of developing quarterbacks but Griffin is probably a lost cause at this point.

At running back, it looks like a black hole. Isaiah Crowell averaged just 3.8 yards per carry last season and had a -4.0 percent DVOA along with a 41 percent success rate. If he can duplicate his rookie year—when he averaged 4.1 yards per carry—the Browns will gladly take it, but Crowell’s decline came with an uptick in carries from 148 to 185. If he becomes the regular back on first and second down, his carries will likely go further up and his efficiency further down. There is some hope for Duke Johnson as a third down back after a 61-catch rookie season, but don’t think that Johnson will contribute much as a rusher. In 104 carries as a rookie, Johnson had just 379 rushing yards so it’s unlikely he supplants Crowell anytime soon. However, he may be able to thrive in a third down role if Griffin becomes adept enough to use him regularly as a safety valve.

The wide receiver position in Cleveland may be one of the most interesting units in all of football, regardless of success. The Browns took Corey Coleman in the first round of the draft, hoping to get a foundation for their receiving corps in the future. It’s tough to see how Coleman will develop with Griffin throwing to him but he does have the chance to be an explosive part of this offense for a long time. The return of Josh Gordon after a four game suspension is certainly fascinating. If the Baylor product stays out of trouble, he’s certainly young enough to get back to his godlike production from 2013, even after playing just five games over the past two seasons. It also looks like Terrelle Pryor will have some sort of role at receiver which, if nothing else, will be entertaining. At tight end, Gary Barnidge came out of nowhere to be one of the best in the league last season, catching 79 balls for 1,043 yards and 218 DYAR. Whether or not the 30-year old can follow up on last year will play a big role in determining how entertaining the Browns can be regardless of success.

The offensive line has certainly taken a step down after multiple offseason departures. Though future Hall of Famer Joe Thomas is still at left tackle[1], there isn’t the same talent around him as before. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz and center Alex Mack both left in the offseason, leaving the Browns with below replacement-level talent at both positions. Alvin Bailey replaces Schwartz at right tackle and is coming off a season in which PFF gave him a 35.4 grade, 67^th among right tackles. That still ranks ahead of center Cam Erving, a first round pick last season who is now Exhibit 18,003 of the Browns’ ineptitude. Joel Bitonio and John Greco are both formidable at the guard positions but the line as a whole has experienced a big downgrade from 2015, when it ranked 29^th in adjusted line yards and 31^st in pressure rate according to Football Outsiders.

Defensively, the Browns are just as bad only they lack the potential entertainment value of the offense. They were 30^th in adjusted line yards and 25^th in adjusted sack rate last season and it’s tough to see them getting better. John Hughes was 77^th among defensive linemen in run stop rate and had just 1.5 sacks and one hurry, per Football Outsiders. Danny Shelton is another 2015 first round pick who may already be a bust. He had a 50.2 pass rushing grade from PFF last season and a 67 percent run stop rate, per Football Outsiders. Desmond Bryant won’t play this year after a torn pectoral, leaving the Browns without their best lineman and his replecement, Jamie Meder, had just one AV last season.

At linebacker, Demario Davis is a nice acquisition. He was second in run stop rate among LB’s last season which could make up for some of what the defensive line lacks. Paul Kruger is fine off the edge although he needs to turn more of his hurries into hits or sacks. Last season, he had 26.5 hurries but just 2.5 sacks and seven hits, per Football Outsiders. Chris Kirksey will probably see some struggles on the inside as he allowed 6.8 adjusted yards per target last season, per Football Outsiders. That’s 3.5 more than Karlos Dansby averaged last year in the same position. Nate Orchard could struggle on the edge, particularly in run defense as he was 78^th among edge rushers in run stop rate according to Football Outsiders.

The secondary is peppered with question marks. Tramon Williams had a solid 2015 but at age 33, it’s tough to see him keeping it up, especially given that he’s slipped from an 82.8 PFF grade in 2013 to a 73.9 PFF grade last year. Joe Haden was a Pro-Bowler in 2013 and ’14 but played just five games last season due to injury. He didn’t exactly excel either, posting a horrific 23 percent success rate. It was just five games and cornerback play is volatile from year to year, but its’s certainly a question as to whether or not he recovers. K’Waun Williams was solid at nickel corner last season with a passable 75.3 coverage grade from PFF and the Browns will be happy if he duplicates it. At safety, Ibrahim Campbell will get more snaps after a decent rookie year but Jordan Poyer had a 58.5 PFF grade last season and new acquisition Rahim Moore was terrible in Houston, getting benched after seven games.

It’s unlikely that this year’s Browns are much better than last year’s. They’re right at the beginning of their 132^nd straight rebuild and even if it succeeds, the results won’t be immediate.

All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] By the way, if Thomas has at least seven AV this season he moves into top-5 in franchise history. He’s already first since the team was reestablished by a large margin.