Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish fourth in the AFC South, the Tennessee Titans.
The Titans are just miserable.
They were the worst team in football last season by record and weighted DVOA, finishing at 3-13 after an encouraging start. There are legitimate questions about how committed ownership is to winning and management has made perplexing decisions like hiring Mike Mularkey after a disastrous stint as interim head coach last season. Tennessee even knew how bad this was when they made the move, dumping the news that Mularkey had been hired during a playoff game so that nobody saw it or paid much attention. Mularkey is trying to run an “exotic smashmouth offense,” straight out of the 1990’s and is 4-21 in his last two years as a head coach and his statements have even made me question whether or not the Titans can develop Marcus Mariota into the star he should become.
Everything we saw from Mariota last season, from Day 1, disproved any notion of him being a system quarterback or anything of the like. If the Titans had made an attempt to find the right coach for Mariota, it would not have been tough to turn him into a star. He might be good enough to be a star even with Mularkey at the helm; it will just be much harder. Mariota is the type of quarterback who seems able to thrive in any scenario. He had one of the worst receiving corps in the league last year and played just 12 games but still looked great. As a rookie, he had a 78 percent accuracy rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting, and threw just 10 picks. If you like historical comparisons (I don’t, because it’s easy to cherry pick just like I’m doing here); Peyton Manning threw 28 interceptions in his rookie year which led the league. Mariota is extremely advanced for such a young quarterback and will only get better. For Titans fans, he’s a ray of hope in a sea more polluted than the Hudson River of the mid-70’s.
Tennessee’s moves at running back this offseason simply did not make logical sense. Trading a draft pick for DeMarco Murray, then drafting Derrick Henry in the second round is a nonsensical way to use assets, especially for a team that has as many holes to fill as the Titans. I don’t think Murray is particularly good—as a matter of fact I’d be surprised if Henry wasn’t the starting running back by Week 10—but if the Titans’ front office thinks he’s good enough to trade a pick for, then they shouldn’t spend another pick on a running back likely to supplant him. It’s yet another sign of poor management; one that emphasizes potential ticket sales that come with college stars like Henry over helping the team win in the long term by drafting players to help a terrible defense.
The Titans also drafted the wrong offensive lineman at #8 overall[1], taking Jack Conklin over Laremy Tunsil because of the gas mask bong video. Sure, there’s a chance Conklin develops into a solid player but there is not a draft analyst on the planet who believes that he’ll be better—now or ever—than Tunsil. Taylor Lewan improved last season, but he’s still a question mark going into his third season in the league. He needs to take a bigger step this year as the Titans can’t really afford to have a left tackle that allowed 4.5 sacks and committed 10 penalties the way Lewan did last season. At guard, Tennessee is a work in progress. Quinton Spain and Chance Warmack are probably both stopgaps but both are young enough that if either improves, they’ll be with the team for the few seasons. Ben Jones was a decent signing at center as he was top-20 at the position by PFF grading and blew just one run block last season, per Football Outsiders.
Tennessee’s receiving corps certainly improved over the offseason but that’s not saying much. Rishard Matthews is certainly an improvement—the former Dolphin was great by DVOA last season—but he probably shouldn’t be a #1 receiver given that he’s never had over 67 targets in a season. Tajae Sharpe, the Titans’ fifth-round pick, has impressed so far in training camp and the preseason. If the Titans have found something in him, it will go a long way towards improving a group that had a 9.0 failed reception rate on Mariota’s pass attempts, the worst mark in football per Cian Fahey’s charting. Kendall Wright struggled last season, finishing with a -8.1 percent DVOA and just 21 DYAR while Delanie Walker, the tight end, is the best pass-catcher on the team. He had 94 receptions and 1,088 yards in 2015, finishing fifth among tight ends in DYAR and second in PFF grading. He’s one of the few reliable pieces on this offense as a tight end that can create matchup problems and create terror by going up the seam.
Defensively, the Titans are riddled with holes. Jurrell Casey is a star, but he can’t hold up an entire defensive line. Al Woods didn’t have a single sack last season and posted just one hit and one hurry, per Football Outsiders, in 356 snaps. DaQuan Jones was fine in run defense but also did not have a sack last season, posting a lackluster 69.8 PFF pass rush grade. The Titans simply need more pass rushing production from this line than they got last season. Although most of the linebackers did well sack-wise, it’s simply not okay that two of their three starting defensive linemen did not have a sack in 2015.
Wesley Woodyard is underrated at linebacker as he led the position in success rate last season, per Football Outsiders, and played good run defense. Despite his age, the Titans may have a star if he can follow that up with another good year. Avery Williamson had a horrific 28 percent success rate and allowed 8.3 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders. He also had a 61 percent run stop rate, per Football Outsiders, and a 57.8 PFF grade. On the edge, Brian Orakpo had a decent 2015 but he’s 30 this year and struggled as a run defender. His seven sacks, three hits and 18.5 hurries may have offset a 56 percent run stop rate last season, per Football Outsiders, but he may not be a productive enough rusher for the same thing to happen this year. Derrick Morgan had a solid but uninspiring 2015, putting up a 75 percent run stop rate along with 4.5 sacks, five hits and 14.5 hurries, per Football Outsiders. If he was on a better unit, Morgan and Woodyard might stand out but the Titans’ defense was 30th in weighted DVOA last season, making it impossible for anyone to look that good.
One of the biggest reasons the defense struggled so much was the secondary. Jason McCourty being healthy this year will certainly help, even if 2014 was a down year for him. Perrish Cox struggled in his first year as a Titan, posting a 43 percent success rate along with 8.1 adjusted yards per target. With Cox as the #1 corner last season, the Titans were 27th in DVOA against #1 wideouts. McCourty’s presence will likely help that, although it’s tough to say how much. New arrivals Brice McCain and Antwon Blake are unlikely to do the same. McCain had a 58.6 PFF grade last season along with a 49 percent success rate which paled in comparison to Blake’s truly awful 40 percent, per Football Outsiders. Both also allowed at least 8.5 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders, and it’s tough to imagine either contributing positively this year. Da’Norris Searcy was a solid piece at safety last year, ranking eighth with 5.0 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders. However, Damion Stafford struggled with a 63.7 PFF grade in just 331 snaps.
The Titans, with the exception of Mariota, are the epitome of a bad football team. From the top down, they are a franchise that doesn’t seem to place an emphasis on winning; a bad sign for a team that is in dire need of a good rebuild.
All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted
[1] They traded the first overall pick in a rare move by this front office that I wholeheartedly approve.
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