Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish second in the AFC North, the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Last season, adversity stared the Steelers in the face and the Steelers stared right back. They survived five games without Ben Roethlisberger, five without Martavis Bryant as well as season-ending injuries to Le’Veon Bell, DeAngelo Williams, Kelvin Beachum and Maurkice Pouncey. They rode a high-powered offensive attack and a dramatically improved defense to a 10-6 record and a victory in the wild card round against the Bengals.
This season, before any games have been played, there’s even more adversity facing the Steelers. Le’Veon Bell is suspended for three games and Martavis Bryant for the entire season. I don’t think they’ll be able to overcome it this time.
Okay, let me clarify that a little. I don’t think the Steelers will make the playoffs. I have them missing the wild card narrowly to the Chiefs and Broncos and losing the division by two or three games to the Bengals. They’re still a very good football team and could very easily make the playoffs and go far and make me look stupid for writing this. But the AFC is stacked this year and there are going to be three or four teams that look good all year and miss the postseason because they play in the AFC instead of the NFC. The Steelers will still be among the top of the league in offense but their defense will sink them and Bryant’s suspension, combined with injury risk to Roethlisberger and Bell knocks the offense down a peg from last season.
In 2015, the Steelers were .500 in games where either Michael Vick or Landry Jones threw at least 10 passes. That saved them a postseason berth and will not happen again if Roethlisberger gets hurt. If you think I’m grasping at straws, Roethlisberger has missed at least three starts in three of the last six seasons and even a small number of games matters a lot when the conference will be this competitive. His health is far from a sure thing.
If Roethlisberger does stay healthy, I don’t see his play declining much despite his turning 34 years old during the offseason. He led all quarterbacks in PFF grading last season, was second in QBR and fifth in DYAR. He threw for 3,809 yards despite missing four games and you had asked someone who didn’t know better, they would have said that Roethlisberger looked closer to 28 than 33.
Le’Veon Bell’s situation is similar to Roethlisberger’s. If he’s healthy, he’s a perennial All-Pro, but Bell has gotten hurt two years in a row[1]. He’s also suspended for three games and coming off of MCL and PCL tears. As good as he is it may not be until Week 6 or 7 that we see him back to being his former self. I’m skeptical that DeAngelo Williams can have a repeat of last season if Bell does get hurt. Williams averaged 4.2 and 3.6 yards per carry in the two seasons before last, when that number shot up to 4.5. Given that Williams is 33 this year, I’m confident that 2015 was an outlier.
There are some slight worries about the receiving corps. Obviously Antonio Brown is the best receiver in football and I don’t think that’s about to change. Over the last two seasons, Antonio Brown has had 136 and 129 receptions, which are second and fourth all-time for a single season. Last year, he also had a 70 percent catch rate, which would be great if you cut Brown’s targets in half. What gives me pause is Bryant’s suspension. Markus Wheaton has been fine as Pittsburgh’s #3 option, but it’s a question mark as to whether he can face #2 corners and still succeed. I’m not a believer in Sammie Coates or Darrius Heyward-Bey and one of them will wind up in the role Wheaton had last season. At tight end, I think the Steelers picked the wrong replacement for Heath Miller. Ladarius Green was supposed to supplant Antonio Gates at the position for the Chargers last season when Gates was suspended at the start of the year. Even though he had four of his best games of the season, Green failed to do so. In the other nine games he played last season, Green had a 45 percent catch rate and just 205 receiving yards, confirming the coaching staff’s decision to hand the starting job back to Gates.
There may be some issues on the offensive line as well. Pittsburgh certainly has one of the best interior lines in football with Ramon Foster, Maurkice Pouncey and David DeCastro, but their tackle situation is unenviable. Left tackle Ryan Harris blew 10.5 blocks in protection last season, per Football Outsiders, and had a 40.0 PFF grade. Right tackle Marcus Gilbert was an issue in run blocking as the Steelers ranked 32nd in adjusted line yards when running to the right end. They were in the top-5 when running to every other direction except the middle, where they were 12th.
Assuming health, the Steelers are going to have a great offense almost no matter what. However, there are just enough question marks that I think it slides down a few spots from last season and fails to make up for some of the defensive holes the Steelers have.
Pittsburgh was a solid defensive team last season, ranking 11th in defensive DVOA, but I don’t think they can repeat that. In the trenches, Cam Heyward and Stephon Tuitt are both solid, but Daniel McCullers is a massive question mark. Although Heyward’s run defense may be a slight issue as he was 45th among linemen in run stop rate, per Football Outsiders, both he and Tuitt are proficient pass rushers and were graded well by PFF last season. McCullers hasn’t seen much playing time during his two years in the NFL and this year will be a test for him. It’s also worth noting that although the Steelers were seventh in adjusted sack rate last year, they were also 24th in pressure rate, per Football Outsiders, which probably indicates that a drop is coming in the former category.
Linebacker is where there could be a lot of issues. James Harrison is their only projected starter with a PFF grade above 51.5 and he’s 38 this season. He could also face a suspension depending on the outcome of his interview with the league office regarding PED allegations made in a January Al-Jazeera report. Bud Dupree, slated to start alongside Harrison at outside linebacker, was ranked 109th among edge rushers by PFF last season. He had a lackluster 69 percent run stop rate, per Football Outsiders, and a 44.9 pass rush grade from PFF. On the inside, Lawrence Timmons is 30 and coming off an awful season. He had just a 51 percent success rate in coverage and allowed 6.4 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders. He had a 29.3 PFF grade in run defense as well. Ryan Shazier has potential but failed to live up to it last season. Shazier was 62nd among linebackers with an awful 43 percent success rate in coverage according to Football Outsiders. He struggled in run defense as well, posting a 46.3 PFF grade in the category.
The secondary could be an issue as well. Ross Cockrell was terrible last season with a 46 percent success rate and 8.9 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders. The Steelers were also 26th in DVOA versus #1 wideouts. William Gay had the lowest target percentage in the league among corners according to Football Outsiders, but with Antwon Blake gone, he’ll see an uptick. That’s a bad sign given that Gay is on the wrong side of 30 and ranked 53rd in adjusted yards per target two years ago, when targeted 89 times per Football Outsiders. The Steelers also picked Artie Burns in the first round, but he’s not developed enough to play corner in the NFL. Burns is very athletic, but that only gets you so far. Expecting him to slot right in for the Steelers is like placing a very smart fifth-grader in high school and expecting straight-A’s. At safety, Mike Mitchell is solid but Robert Golden is a question mark. In 390 snaps last season, Golden had a 51 percent success rate, per Football Outsiders. That needs to get better if Golden takes a bigger role this year.
Last year, Pittsburgh’s defense had a surprisingly good season but I don’t think that will happen again as there are just too many holes for Mike Tomlin and Keith Butler to patch up. The Steelers may be a great offensive team, but there are enough questions, suspensions and health concerns that they’ll probably be a little bit worse than last year. Take all of that and a much more competitive AFC playoff picture into account and the Steelers will be the odd man out.
All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted
[1] In 2014, he played all 16 regular season games but missed Pittsburgh’s playoff loss to Baltimore due to injury.
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