Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to win the AFC South, the Jacksonville Jaguars.
If the Jaguars are ever going to be competitive, this is the year. Their offense has the chance to be one of the most dynamic in football and there have been enough money and draft capital invested in their defense that Gus Bradley should be able to make something of it. Their division has improved, but it’s open for the taking and the Jaguars are going to capitalize.
It’s possible that the biggest question mark on their offense is at the quarterback position. Blake Bortles has struggled greatly with his decision-making and accuracy in the past; averaging an interceptable pass every 20.2 attempts last season per Cian Fahey’s charting. He certainly made strides from his rookie year, but continually made bad decisions with the football and relied on an All-Star cast of receivers to bail him out more often than not. Last season’s Broncos showed us that the bar for quarterback play is a lot lower than we thought for Super Bowl champs, not to mention playoff teams, but Bortles remains one of Jacksonville’s biggest obstacles unless he improves.
However, it’s tough to get too worked up about the Jaguars’ quarterback situation when you look at their receivers. Allen Robinson had an unbelievable 2015, racking up 1,400 yards on 80 receptions and making up for bad throw after bad throw. He was eighth among receivers in DYAR, showing a propensity for deep balls, catching 30 of them according to Pro Football Reference’s game charting[1]. Allen Hurns also went for over 1,000 yards and was top-12 in DVOA among wideouts. In those two, the Jaguars have one of the best receiving tandems in all of football. They should also expect to see more out of Julius Thomas at tight end this year. Thomas was hindered by injuries for all of last season but now that he’s healthy, he can be the player Jacksonville envisioned when they signed him to a big deal in free agency two years ago. In 2014, with the Broncos, Thomas was second among tight ends in DVOA and sixth in DYAR. He was also a big red zone threat, catching 12 touchdowns in both 2013 and ’14. It’s worth noting that Thomas had just 34 less receiving yards last season in than in 2014 and if he can be as consistent as two years ago, the Jaguars’ receiving corps becomes downright scary.
Jacksonville’s run game is ready for a big improvement this year as well. Now that the team has signed Chris Ivory, they have two running backs that are capable of 1,000 yards this year in him and sophomore T.J. Yeldon. It’s pretty unlikely that both reach that mark as Yeldon will see the bulk of the carries. That’s tough to argue with given that the Jags spent a second round pick on him last season and he rushed for 740 yards in just 12 games. Ivory, however, is a perfect fit for goal-line situations. With him as their primary back, the Jets had a 35.7 percent DVOA in goal to go situations last season, per Football Outsiders.
The offensive line is a bit of a weak link, but seems passable after the misery of the last few years. Kelvin Beachum gives them some stability at left tackle after the debacle that was Luke Joeckel. Beachum played just six games last year due to injury but had an 85.6 PFF grade in 2014. The downside of Joeckel no longer playing left tackle is that it looks like he will remain on the offensive line as the left guard. At this point, it seems like the Jaguars should just cut ties with Joeckel given that he blew 13 blocks in protection last year, per Football Outsiders, the most of any player on a line that was 25th in adjusted sack rate. Brandon Linder played decently at guard when healthy last season and it shouldn’t be tough for him to clear the low bar set by Stefen Wisniewski at center after being moved there. At right guard, A.J. Cann blew just three blocks in 861 snaps last season, per Football Outsiders, and Jeremy Parnell had a solid 75.4 PFF grade at right tackle.
Defensively, Gus Bradley finally has the personnel and it’s time for the former Seattle coordinator to prove himself as a head coach. 2015 first round pick Dante Fowler will finally play after tearing his ACL before last season and is expected to make a decent contribution as a pass rusher this season. Bradley and GM Dave Caldwell also signed Malik Jackson from Denver over the offseason, giving the Jaguars’ interior a star. Jackson had an 86.7 PFF grade last season along with five sacks, 10 hits and 22 hurries. His best games were arguably in the postseason, when Denver’s defense suddenly went from really good to the ’85 Bears. Jackson had five tackles and recovered a fumble for a touchdown in the Super Bowl, capping a great season that earned him a big check in free agency. Next to him, Roy Miller and Jared Odrick aren’t stars but both are more than capable. Jacksonville’s defensive line was sneakily top-10 in adjusted line yards and stuff rate last season and having Fowler and Jackson will only help.
At linebacker, the Jaguars have a pretty impressive group after grabbing Myles Jack in the second round of the draft in what could turn out to be one of the biggest steals in recent memory. If Jack can stay healthy—which, in fairness, is a pretty big if—he may be one of the best players in the entire draft. Telvin Smith was a good contributor on the outside last season, racking up 30 defeats, per Football Outsiders. Smith had a 75.9 coverage grade from PFF as well, a good complement to Paul Posluszny’s solid but deteriorating skills in coverage. Posluszny is 32 this year and will likely see a dip from a solid 62 percent success rate, per FO.
Jacksonville’s first round pick, cornerback Jalen Ramsey, is another insanely talented player. The FSU product figures to be an immediate contributor for the Jags, slotting in on the outside opposite Davon House. House went under the radar last season, but did good work for the Jaguars. Despite a lacking secondary around him, House had a 76.4 PFF coverage grade last season with most of his work coming against #1 wideouts. At nickel, Prince Amukamara will be a good contributor if he stays healthy. He had a 79.3 PFF grade in coverage last season along with a solid 52 percent success rate, per FO. Another one of Jacksonville’s acquisitions in free agency was Tashaun Gipson, who gives them a solid presence at safety that they didn’t have in the past. If Johnathan Cyprien can get more consistent, the Jaguars will have a great secondary from top to bottom.
Jacksonville has been incredibly patient with Gus Bradley, letting him and Dave Caldwell take all the time they need in building a team to compete in the AFC South and eventually the playoffs. In the third year of the duo’s regime, they finally have a team that should be able to do at least the former of those tasks.
All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted
[1] They define a deep ball as over 15 yards.
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