Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish third in the AFC South, the Houston Texans.
I stumped for Brock Osweiler last season, when the Broncos were unsure whether to start him or Peyton Manning late in the season. Not because I thought Osweiler was particularly good, I did so because I thought Peyton Manning was particularly horrible. I felt the same way about picking Osweiler over Manning that people like Jeb Bush will feel when they go to vote this November.
The Texans are a bit more devoted in their support. So devoted, in fact, that they handed Osweiler $72 million to be their quarterback of the future before head coach Bill O’Brien had even met him. It’s kind of like if you donated $100 to one of the candidates without actually having heard what their positions are, only instead of donating money, the Texans’ coaching staff and front office is betting their jobs. In most cases, that’s not a really smart bet and this is no exception.
In the eight games Osweiler played last season, he was very okay. However, that was when we were comparing him with Peyton Manning, who was one of the worst quarterbacks in football for large chunks of the year. Put Osweiler’s numbers in a vacuum and Houston’s decision to lay their future on the line for him becomes even more perplexing. Osweiler threw an interceptable pass every 21.2 attempts and had a 76.2 percent accuracy rate, per Cian Fahey’s charting. He averaged 5.86 adjusted net yards per attempt, which was less than Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates and Brandon Weeden combined to average last season for the Texans and would have ranked 24th in the league if Osweiler was a team. There was also a dramatic split between Osweiler’s play in the first and second half of games as his completion percentage dropped from 72.36 to 53.90 and his passer rating from 104.1 to 73.3. General manager Rick Smith may have made a bet even worse than the one described above.
Given that Osweiler isn’t all too different from Brian Hoyer, the Texans’ quarterback for the majority of last season; it’s unlikely that the passing game, ranked 22nd in DVOA last year, changes much. DeAndre Hopkins is an All-Pro caliber wideout with a catch radius that rivals anyone in the NFL. However, the difference between Osweiler and Hoyer isn’t big enough that we’ll see a big upward or downward jolt in his performance. In Houston’s ideal world, rookie Will Fuller and sophomore Jaelen Strong combine to round out a receiving corps that was sorely lacking in depth last year. There are good arguments for and against this happening. Projection systems and stats-based models love Fuller, but he didn’t have great hands or a litany of other traits that scouts value at Notre Dame. Strong had a good pedigree coming into his rookie year but didn’t get on the field much, being targeted just 24 times. There’s also some type of role for Braxton Miller, even if that role remains somewhat unclear.
The biggest change to the offense comes in the running game, where the Texans have effectively swapped Arian Foster for Lamar Miller. Miller rushed for only 872 yards last season, but that was mostly due to an incompetent coaching staff in Miami deciding to ignore him. Miller averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year and 5.1 in 2014, when the Dolphins were aware of his existence. His 85.6 PFF grade was fourth among running backs and he also caught nearly 50 passes. Miller gives Houston a competent rushing attack that they didn’t have last season with Foster either hurt or ineffective, but their gains here may be offset by losses on the offensive line.
Left tackle Duane Brown was their best lineman last year and will likely start the year on the PUP list. Additionally, Brown is 31 years old and it’s tough to believe he’ll be the same guy once he returns. Rookie center Nick Martin is out for the year after an ankle injury, setting the stage for a completely makeshift offensive line at least until Brown returns. Left guard Xavier Su’a-Filo had a poor 52.0 PFF grade last season while right tackle Derek Newton allowed seven sacks and blew 11 blocks in protection, per Football Outsiders. Jeff Allen, the right guard, may be the only reliable player on the starting line in Week 1.
Defensively, the Texans are solid up front and filled with questions in the secondary. It’s unclear whether J.J. Watt will miss games, but it doesn’t seem he’ll miss more than one or two, if any. Watt led the league in sacks, hits, hurries, run tackles for loss, QB knockdowns, defeats, opposing yards per carry on run tackles, and approximate value last season, so the sooner he’s back, the better. Watt’s probably the best defensive player this side of Lawrence Taylor and his presence alone makes the Texans’ pass rush formidable.
Outside of Watt, most of Houston’s pass rush will come from outside linebacker. Whitney Mercilus had 12.5 sacks in 2015 while playing solid run defense and Jadeveon Clowney is formidable when healthy. In 562 snaps last year, Clowney had 4.5 sacks, five hits and 18.5 hurries, per Football Outsiders. If he can play closer to 800 snaps this year, the Texans will look a lot better for selecting him at #1 overall in 2014.
Next to Watt on the line, both Vince Wilfork and Devon Still come into the year as question marks. Wilfork was a solid run defender last year, but it’s a question as to whether that can continue at age 35. On the other hand, Still wasn’t even in the league last season.
Despite that, the front seven still looks pretty good as a whole. At inside linebacker, Brian Cushing had a solid 73 percent run stop rate and 60 percent success rate in coverage, per Football Outsiders. There are some worries with him—Cushing allowed 7.0 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders—but he remains a net positive. Benardrick McKinney had a solid 77.8 PFF grade last season and, at age 24, is likely to improve.
The biggest concern is the secondary. Kareem Jackson had a 60.9 coverage grade from PFF last season to complement a terrible 40 percent success rate according to Football Outsiders. Johnathan Joseph had a decent 2015, but it’s tough to expect him to duplicate it at age 32. Kevin Johnson had a 66.3 PFF grade and while his 7.3 adjusted yards per target isn’t disastrous, it’s not far off. At safety, Andre Hal is 24 and coming off a good year. He may be the only reliable piece in this secondary as Quinton Demps is 31 and was 30th among safeties in success rate last year, per Football Outsiders.
With a largely similar team from last year, I can’t see the Texans improving much. Despite their 9-7 record, they were 18th in DVOA and failed to keep pace with the Jaguars or Colts, both of whom could see big improvements this year. With the Osweiler bet doomed to fail, it just doesn’t look like the Texans can muster another year of faux-contention.
All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted
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