Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish fourth in the AFC North, the Cleveland Browns.
Even under a new regime, the Browns’ misery isn’t going to end anytime soon. That’s not a knock on Hue Jackson, Sashi Brown or any move that Cleveland has made this offseason. I was a fan of both hires as well as most of their moves during the offseason but none of that will result in immediate change. The Browns simply had too many holes to plug, the result of years and years of inept management. It didn’t matter who they brought in this offseason—it could have been the ghost of Vince Lombardi or my dog—it will take multiple years to even get the Browns back to .500. The organization’s biggest problem for years has been a lack of patience and if they’re ever going to rebuild, that’s the first thing that needs fixing.
The first and most obvious problem for the Browns is at quarterback. Robert Griffin III hasn’t played a regular season snap yet for the Browns but it’s already pretty clear that he isn’t anything close to a long-term solution there. Griffin didn’t play at all last year in Washington and hasn’t been an effective quarterback since his rookie year in 2012. There is a litany of reasons for that; the biggest two being a failure to develop as a passer and the ravaging effect that injuries have on his ability to run. Hue Jackson has a great track record in terms of developing quarterbacks but Griffin is probably a lost cause at this point.
At running back, it looks like a black hole. Isaiah Crowell averaged just 3.8 yards per carry last season and had a -4.0 percent DVOA along with a 41 percent success rate. If he can duplicate his rookie year—when he averaged 4.1 yards per carry—the Browns will gladly take it, but Crowell’s decline came with an uptick in carries from 148 to 185. If he becomes the regular back on first and second down, his carries will likely go further up and his efficiency further down. There is some hope for Duke Johnson as a third down back after a 61-catch rookie season, but don’t think that Johnson will contribute much as a rusher. In 104 carries as a rookie, Johnson had just 379 rushing yards so it’s unlikely he supplants Crowell anytime soon. However, he may be able to thrive in a third down role if Griffin becomes adept enough to use him regularly as a safety valve.
The wide receiver position in Cleveland may be one of the most interesting units in all of football, regardless of success. The Browns took Corey Coleman in the first round of the draft, hoping to get a foundation for their receiving corps in the future. It’s tough to see how Coleman will develop with Griffin throwing to him but he does have the chance to be an explosive part of this offense for a long time. The return of Josh Gordon after a four game suspension is certainly fascinating. If the Baylor product stays out of trouble, he’s certainly young enough to get back to his godlike production from 2013, even after playing just five games over the past two seasons. It also looks like Terrelle Pryor will have some sort of role at receiver which, if nothing else, will be entertaining. At tight end, Gary Barnidge came out of nowhere to be one of the best in the league last season, catching 79 balls for 1,043 yards and 218 DYAR. Whether or not the 30-year old can follow up on last year will play a big role in determining how entertaining the Browns can be regardless of success.
The offensive line has certainly taken a step down after multiple offseason departures. Though future Hall of Famer Joe Thomas is still at left tackle[1], there isn’t the same talent around him as before. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz and center Alex Mack both left in the offseason, leaving the Browns with below replacement-level talent at both positions. Alvin Bailey replaces Schwartz at right tackle and is coming off a season in which PFF gave him a 35.4 grade, 67th among right tackles. That still ranks ahead of center Cam Erving, a first round pick last season who is now Exhibit 18,003 of the Browns’ ineptitude. Joel Bitonio and John Greco are both formidable at the guard positions but the line as a whole has experienced a big downgrade from 2015, when it ranked 29th in adjusted line yards and 31st in pressure rate according to Football Outsiders.
Defensively, the Browns are just as bad only they lack the potential entertainment value of the offense. They were 30th in adjusted line yards and 25th in adjusted sack rate last season and it’s tough to see them getting better. John Hughes was 77th among defensive linemen in run stop rate and had just 1.5 sacks and one hurry, per Football Outsiders. Danny Shelton is another 2015 first round pick who may already be a bust. He had a 50.2 pass rushing grade from PFF last season and a 67 percent run stop rate, per Football Outsiders. Desmond Bryant won’t play this year after a torn pectoral, leaving the Browns without their best lineman and his replecement, Jamie Meder, had just one AV last season.
At linebacker, Demario Davis is a nice acquisition. He was second in run stop rate among LB’s last season which could make up for some of what the defensive line lacks. Paul Kruger is fine off the edge although he needs to turn more of his hurries into hits or sacks. Last season, he had 26.5 hurries but just 2.5 sacks and seven hits, per Football Outsiders. Chris Kirksey will probably see some struggles on the inside as he allowed 6.8 adjusted yards per target last season, per Football Outsiders. That’s 3.5 more than Karlos Dansby averaged last year in the same position. Nate Orchard could struggle on the edge, particularly in run defense as he was 78th among edge rushers in run stop rate according to Football Outsiders.
The secondary is peppered with question marks. Tramon Williams had a solid 2015 but at age 33, it’s tough to see him keeping it up, especially given that he’s slipped from an 82.8 PFF grade in 2013 to a 73.9 PFF grade last year. Joe Haden was a Pro-Bowler in 2013 and ’14 but played just five games last season due to injury. He didn’t exactly excel either, posting a horrific 23 percent success rate. It was just five games and cornerback play is volatile from year to year, but its’s certainly a question as to whether or not he recovers. K’Waun Williams was solid at nickel corner last season with a passable 75.3 coverage grade from PFF and the Browns will be happy if he duplicates it. At safety, Ibrahim Campbell will get more snaps after a decent rookie year but Jordan Poyer had a 58.5 PFF grade last season and new acquisition Rahim Moore was terrible in Houston, getting benched after seven games.
It’s unlikely that this year’s Browns are much better than last year’s. They’re right at the beginning of their 132nd straight rebuild and even if it succeeds, the results won’t be immediate.
All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted
[1] By the way, if Thomas has at least seven AV this season he moves into top-5 in franchise history. He’s already first since the team was reestablished by a large margin.
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