Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish first in the AFC North, the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals were one of football’s best teams in 2015 and they’re going to start right back where they left off. If not for Andy Dalton’s injury, Cincinnati would have made a deep run last January. They were second in DVOA and fifth in weighted DVOA last year, nearly beating a great Steelers’ team in the playoffs despite missing their quarterback. Now that he’s back and healthy, Cincinnati is set to finally win in the postseason under Marvin Lewis.
One of my biggest gripes coming into last year had to do with Andy Dalton. I thought he had failed to develop into even a Dilfer Zone quarterback and that the Bengals would miss the playoffs thanks to him. By Week 3, I had been proven wrong. Dalton was second among quarterbacks in DVOA and fourth in DYAR despite essentially missing four games. He threw just seven picks with a career-best 1.8 percent interception rate, fixing what had been one of his biggest issues in the past. Dalton was second in accuracy percentage, per Cian Fahey’s charting, and averaged 8.17 adjusted net yards per attempt, which was second in the league. Dalton wasn’t just a Dilfer Zone quarterback; he was a star quarterback, as the Bengals led the league in passing offense DVOA.
I don’t buy the argument that the receiving corps has taken a big hit. It certainly won’t help Cincinnati that Marvin Jones is gone, but unless Tyler Eifert misses significant time with his injury, things should be fine. It does look like Eifert will miss some time this season but just how much remains to be seen. Recent reports seem to indicate that it won’t be more than three or four games but the margin of error seems to be a couple games in either direction. His presence is key for this offense after a breakout season in which Eifert led all tight ends (including Rob Gronkowski) in both DVOA and DYAR. Eifert is a prototypical tight end to play in Y-ISO and a huge red zone threat. If the Bengals decide to let him loose, we could think of him on the same level as Gronk by the end of this season. A.J. Green is also coming off his fifth straight Pro Bowl and all of them have been well-deserved. Green had 1,297 receiving yards last season, raking in 86 catches and 10 touchdowns. He was also third among wideouts in DYAR and fourth in PFF grading. As long as he’s in Cincinnati, their receiving corps will be fine.
Brandon LaFell is certainly a potential issue, but I don’t see the Bengals relying on him a ton. Once Eifert is healthy, LaFell will be Dalton’s third target at best. Tyler Boyd, the Bengals’ second round pick, could also pass LaFell in the pecking order pretty easily, as the Pitt product had a high catch rate and can slot right in as a possession receiver.
Cincinnati’s offensive line is going to be among the league’s best as well. Andrew Whitworth was an All-Pro last season and had an 88.5 PFF grade, fourth among tackles, ranking second among left tackles in snaps per blown block according to Football Outsiders. Not to be outdone, Clint Boling was first among left guards in the category, per Football Outsiders. Center Russell Bodine had some struggles last season but it’s tough to expose him given that he’s flanked by Boling and Kevin Zeitler. Zeitler was just outside the top- 10 in PFF grading among guards and didn’t allow a sack in all of 2015, per Football Outsiders. Cedric Ogbuehi will be a good replacement for Andre Smith at right tackle as Ogbuehi graded well on PFF and did not blow a block last season according to Football Outsiders in limited snaps. The best part of this line is how well-rounded it is. Some linemen have singular skill-sets, excelling in run blocking but failing horribly in protection but Cincinnati was first in adjusted line yards and sixth in pressure rate last season according to Football Outsiders.
Their run game has become somewhat underrated as well, mostly because neither Jeremy Hill nor Giovani Bernard was good in fantasy football last season. However, the Bengals were seventh in rushing offense DVOA and with both Hill and Bernard, have great depth at the position. Bernard averaged 4.7 yards per carry last season on 730 rushing yards and was considered the back-up. Jeremy Hill had a 49 percent success rate and might lose the starting job. Almost no other team has two players this good at running back.
Defensively, the Bengals were top-10 in DVOA last season and could easily get there again in 2016. Geno Atkins had a career year in 2015 and anchors a solid defensive line. Atkins was elected to his second All-Pro team after 11 sacks, nine hits and 29.5 hits along with stunning 93 percent run stop rate, per Football Outsiders. Carlos Dunlap is a star edge rusher, putting up 13.5 sacks, 20 hits and 37.5 hurries last year along with 13 AV. Domata Peko may be a question mark given he’s aging and coming off a bad year, but like Bodine on the offensive line, he’s surrounded by great players. Even edge rusher Michael Johnson put up solid numbers last year with five sacks, 12 hits and 15.5 hurries, per Football Outsiders, along with an 82.5 run defense grade from PFF.
At linebacker, the main concern is Vontaze Burfict’s three game suspension and rightfully so. He’s one of the best linebackers in the league, posting a 97.1 run defense grade from PFF and allowing just 3.2 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders. It’s also a legitimate concern the type of behavior he exhibited in the Wild Card game against Pittsburgh could easily occur again. Burfict has a history and will be on a short leash with the league after such a poor display in the postseason. At middle linebacker, Ray Maualuga had solid numbers last season with a 58 percent success rate, per Football Outsiders, and 77.9 PFF grade while Karlos Dansby may have something to contribute even at age 35. Dansby was second among linebackers in success rate and fifth in adjusted yards per target last season according to Football Outsiders, so we may see a lot of him. Vincent Rey had an awful 35 percent success rate last season, per Football Outsiders, and is one of the biggest issues on a mostly pristine defense.
After the departures of Reggie Nelson and Leon Hall, the secondary will certainly take a step down from last year although I doubt it will be anything close to a liability. Adam Jones was quietly one of the better corners in football last year, ranking top-5 in success rate and adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders. That’s likely to come down a little given that Jones is 33 this season but I don’t think the drop-off will be too drastic. Darqueeze Dennard played well in a limited sample size last season, posting a 73.4 PFF grade, and could take over the nickel corner position full-time this year. Dre Kirkpatrick is going to be a big hole for the secondary unless there’s a dramatic improvement from last season, in which he had a 38.8 PFF grade, but the success of this unit is going to depend on how well Shawn Williams does in replacing Reggie Nelson. That’s not an enviable task given that Nelson intercepted eight balls last season and was one of the beset safeties in football, but Williams was solid last year in 474 snaps. His 79.8 PFF grade in coverage and 85 percent success rate, per Football Outsiders, give off good signs but it’s impossible to know whether that will translate when he becomes the starter. At the other safety position, George Iloka is just fine, ranking 15th at the position in PFF grading with a 65 percent success rate.
The defense certainly has its question marks, but if things go well, it can be just as good as last year. With Dalton back and healthy, the Bengals are set to do what they couldn’t last season and win a game or two in January.
All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted
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