Preseason is here! It’s football season which means we’re previewing the NFL. For the next 32 days we’re doing one team per day, by division, in reverse order of projected finish. Today, projected to finish third in the AFC North, the Baltimore Ravens.
Last season, the Ravens were an injury-riddled mess. Terrell Suggs, Steve Smith, Justin Forsett, Joe Flacco and Jeremy Zuttah all played 10 or less games, effectively killing their season. This year, some are peddling a comeback narrative, but what’s being overlooked is that the 2015 Ravens were terrible before everyone got hurt. Through seven weeks last season, the Ravens were 1-6 and could have been 0-7 if Josh Scobee hasn’t missed a 41-yard field goal for the Steelers in Week 3. With the exception of Suggs, who tore his Achilles in Week 1, everyone named above was healthy for all of those games. It wasn’t until Smith got hurt in Week 7 that the wheels fell off in terms of injuries.
With that in mind, there isn’t much reason to believe the Ravens are much more than an average team this season. Joe Flacco is still a Dilfer Zone quarterback at age 31, but it’s closer than you think. In the 10 games he played last year, Flacco threw an interceptable pass every 24.3 attempts, per Cian Fahey’s charting. He had a lackluster 40.9 QBR and a flat-out poor -10.5 percent DVOA and to cap it off, 2015 was also the second time in the last three years that PFF has graded Flacco as below-average. If he doesn’t improve at least to the level he was at two years ago, it won’t be a question of whether or not he can live up to the mammoth contract extension he received after Super Bowl XLVII but whether or not Baltimore should move on from him.
Justin Forsett certainly experienced a downturn from his breakout 2014 season, but he remains an above-average runner. In 10 games last season, Forsett was top-10 in DVOA with a respectable 46 percent success rate. The biggest reason people have pointed to decline is a drop from 5.4 yards per carry in 2014 to 4.2 in 2015. Some of that is certainly Forsett, but I would argue that much of it comes from the offensive line.
Two years ago, the Ravens were third in adjusted line yards but last season they were 14th. This year, with multiple personnel changes, the offensive line has gotten even worse. The Ravens drafted Ronnie Stanley at #6 overall over Laremy Tunsil because of the video that came out of Tunsil smoking out of a gas mask bong. This was somewhat inexplicable as Tunsil would have given them a potential All-Pro tackle for the next decade while Stanley will take some developing at the very least. At left guard, John Urschel struggled last season, posting a 42.1 PFF grade and just three AV. Center Jeremy Zuttah has been solid for a long time but is turning 30 this year and we could see his play begin to decline. Marshal Yanda is the best guard in football and there’s nothing bad that anyone can say about him. The same cannot be said for right tackle Ricky Wagner, the recipient of a 44.4 PFF grade last season. Wagner blew eight blocks in 2015, including five in protection, per Football Outsiders.
The receiving corps is dotted with questions. Steve Smith Sr. is 37 years old and coming off an Achilles tear. Every football fan should hope he’s the exact same player because things are more fun when Steve Smith Sr. is around, but whether he will be is far from certain. Breshad Perriman has yet to play an NFL snap and although reports out of training camp are positive, we should take them with a grain of salt until Perriman steps on an NFL field, in uniform. Kamar Aiken had a good 2015 in the wake of all the other receivers getting hurt and may be the most reliable player at the position for Baltimore. He had an encouraging 944 receiving yards and 101 DYAR last year. At tight end, Ben Watson is coming off a career year in New Orleans but the only other time the 35-year old came within 100 yards of the 825 he accumulated last season was in 2010.
Defensively, this is nowhere near the same Ravens team that was atop the league for years. Baltimore is fine—they were 18th in weighted defensive DVOA last season even after all of the injuries—but this defense isn’t carrying them to the playoffs.
Although it’s decidedly average, the defensive line will likely be the best positional group on this unit. Lawrence Guy and Timmy Jernigan both had PFF grades in the mid-70’s last season and their numbers were nearly identical. Jernigan had an 80 percent run stop rate and Guy had a 79 percent run stop rate, per Football Outsiders. Jernigan had 11 defeats and Guy had 12, also per Football Outsiders. Brandon Williams is another solid piece at nose tackle. He’s a stout run defender, posting a 93.9 run defense grade from PFF last year, but struggles as a pass rusher. Williams had just two sacks, two hits and five hurries last season, per Football Outsiders.
Linebacker is where we start to see a lot of question marks. Terrell Suggs is 33 and coming off a torn Achilles. It’s not going out on a limb to call it unlikely that we see the same Suggs who had 12 sacks in 2014. Elvis Dumervil, their other well-known edge rusher, has already seen the effects of the aging curve. His six sacks, 16 hits and 28.5 hurries was a decline from 2014, when he was an All-Pro, and his run defense fell off a cliff. Dumervil was 64th among edge rushers in oppositional yards per carry when involved in the play and had a 55.2 run defense grade from PFF. C.J. Mosley isn’t very old but he too had a lot of decline from an outstanding rookie season. His coverage was where he had the most overt deterioration as Mosley had just a 54 percent success rate, per Football Outsiders, and a 49.9 PFF coverage grade. Zach Orr seems most likely to fill the other inside linebacker spot and although he was fine last season Orr has never started an NFL game.
Don’t expect the secondary to be world-beaters either. Cornerback was a big hole last season and hasn’t changed much. Jimmy Smith had just a 49 percent success rate, allowing 8.6 adjusted yards per target last season, and remains the #1 corner. Shareece Wright was slightly better although his 74.8 PFF grade came in just 485 snaps and Ravens’ fans shouldn’t be very confident if Kyle Arrington or Matt Elam winds up at nickel corner. The acquisition of Eric Weddle marks an improvement at safety but it remains to be seen how much Weddle has left in the tank. At 31, Weddle is coming off a lackluster season (by his standards) that saw him post a 77.8 PFF grade and 6.5 adjusted yards per target according to Football Outsiders. At age 31, Lardarius Webb is shifting to safety full-time and if neither he nor Weddle are affected by the aging curve, they could form a formidable tandem. Webb was sixth among defensive backs in success rate last season and defensed 10 passes.
Right now, the Ravens look like a very average football team unless things go well. In a division that includes the Bengals and Steelers, two teams that think of themselves as Super Bowl contenders, average doesn’t get you very far.
All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted
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