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Finding historical perspective for Warriors-Thunder

With a little over 12 hours to reflect on one of the most monumental playoff series that has ever been played, it seems no less monumental than it did while unfolding. This Conference Finals was more than a series; it was a historical referendum on all parties involved: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, the 2008-2016 Oklahoma City Thunder and even the era as a whole.

Through 3 quarters, the Thunder were beating Golden State in rebounds, points in the paint, 2^nd chance points, free throw attempts, turnovers and field goal attempts. They found themselves staring at an 11 point hole. The decisive third quarter, which featured a 29-12 Golden State evisceration of Oklahoma City, saw the Warriors go back to their roots and let Steph be Steph. Curry scored 9 points in the quarter and 36 in the game, looking himself in a series that often saw him neutralized by the towering figure of Steven Adams and the pterodactyl-esque wingspan of Kevin Durant off of OKC’s ambitious pick and roll switches. In the deciding Game 7, Curry finally punished the Thunder  for daring to guard him with a big, crossing over, stepping back and firing at will, reigning down a parade of 3s over the Thunder. It was the performance the Warriors needed from Curry, who had struggled all series amid speculation of injury, and the MVP stepped up to the task.

After that third quarter, you knew. The Thunder had clung to a six-point halftime lead that felt as if it should have been bigger after outplaying, no, dominating, the Warriors for the first 24 minutes and the Thunder threw the lead away as easily as Andy Reid screws up the clock. When Anderson Varejao and Leandro Barbosa came into the game and actually played well for Golden State with Varejao notching two assists and two points in less than 2 minutes, you knew that this was the Warriors’ night. Even when Durant tried to take matters into his own hands and brought the Thunder back within four you knew. Golden State’s win probability was still 93.2 percent, per InPredict. The very next play, Serge Ibaka fouled Curry on a 3-point attempt and the game was sealed.

Historically, it’s tough to place this series other than to say it was one of the best ever. If the Warriors beat Cleveland in the Finals, than this is the three game stretch that proved the Warriors were one of the greatest teams ever. If it turns into a dynasty than Game 7 is the defining game of that dynasty. Either way, it’s a career-defining game for Curry and Game 6 is the same for Thompson. If Durant leaves, than this is the three game stretch that caused him to do so. If he returns, than it’s the three game stretch that motivated him to do so and if the Thunder win next year’s championship, than it’s the three game stretch that motivated them to do so.

As of now, it seems unlikely that he’ll leave. The Thunder was as close as it’s ever been this season and leaving now would be like passing out 10 feet before the finish line. Other than Golden State, no other team gives Durant a better shot at winning a title[1]. Sure, Pat Riley or Gregg Popovich could swoop in and steal him away, but what motivation does he have to leave? Signing a 1+1 deal with and opting out after next year makes too much sense. That way, Durant times his free agency with Westbrook’s and he maximizes his salary because the cap is rocketing up again after next season.

This series could ultimately prove more important to the Thunder than to the Warriors. Durant’s free agency along with the fact that this core hasn’t won a championship means that this series was Durant and Westbrook’s chance to separate themselves from that Karl Malone, John Stockton, Charles Barkley group historically. They were at the finish line, and then the Warriors stepped on the gas and stole the race. If the Thunder fall short again next season, that might be it for this core.

This was an era-defining series. The Warriors proved yet again that they’re one of the best teams we’ve ever seen. The Thunder proved yet again that they can’t get over the finish line. When it’s all said and done, that’s how we’ll look at this series.

 

All stats are from basketball-reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] And it’s not like Durant would go to the team that just beat him. That’s not something you do as an all-time great basketball player.

Warriors win an all-timer in Oklahoma City

Tonight was one of those games.

 One of those games where you sweat while watching, even when you aren’t rooting for anyone. One of those games that you sit on the couch after watching, not knowing what to do with yourself because you’re in shock. One of those games you’ll tell your grandkids about in 50 years, marveling at the fact that you sat and watched it live because it was just that good.

The Warriors battled and then they battled some more until the Thunder finally relented. Faced with elimination—and the prospect of going next to the 2007 Patriots in history as the Greatest Team that Wasn’t—the Warriors dug deep and silenced a raucous Oklahoma City crowd that was so loud it hurt your ears through the television.   

First it was a barrage of Klay Thompson 3s, 11 to be exact—a playoff record—including two or three from Curry’s range of 30 feet or more. Those kept Golden State in the game when the Thunder tried to step on their necks but it was Andre Iguodala’s relentless defense on both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook that the Warriors owe this victory to as much as anything. It was Iguodala’s steal off Russell Westbrook that set up Thompson’s 25-footer in transition that put the Warriors ahead for good just as it was Andre Iguodala’s steal off Kevin Durant that set up a Curry 26-footer that tied the game at 99 and silenced the deafening Thunder crowd.

Normally, Russell Westbrook wills himself to the rim on those drives so relentless it’s nearly impossible to describe but tonight, Westbrook was comparatively quiet as was his teammate, Kevin Durant. Late in the game, the Thunder let the pressure get to them, falling back into their isolation-heavy offense that defined their frustrating crunch-time offense during the regular season, settling for midrange jumpers and turning the ball over with consistency. The champs also went back to their regular season roots, going to the Death Lineup that just two games ago had been killed and reaping the rewards.

Now we go back to Oracle Arena and a Game 7 that promises to be every bit as good as its predecessor. The only difference: the pressure is on the Thunder.

All stats are from basketball-reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted

How the Thunder are on the brink of ending Golden State's dream season

What the hell happened?

That’s a question the entire basketball world has been trying to find the answer to since the Warriors were demolished for the second straight game, putting their dream season on life support and making the Thunder unquestioned title favorites. To beat Golden State, you need to do everything right. They won 73 games for a reason. The Thunder has done everything right and then some. The result has been sheer dominance. So where do we start with answering the question of how this happened? The Thunder is winning the series so let’s start with them.

First and foremost, Billy Donovan has suddenly transformed into Red Auerbach crossed with Bill Belichick crossed with Plato. All year, Donovan was essentially a laughingstock on Twitter and in any piece of writing about him. Over the San Antonio series and this one, he’s made The Leap[1]. Donovan shortened his rotations drastically against the Warriors; in Game 4, only six players played over 15 minutes. Donovan used Enes Kanter and Steven Adams together to OKC’s advantage against San Antonio but against Golden State, he’s barely used that combo and he’s barely used Kanter, knowing that the Warriors will take advantage of him in the pick and roll every time. When Steve Kerr had the Warriors ignore Andre Roberson, Donovan made Roberson an integral part of the Thunder’s offense. Roberson has become an active screener both on ball and off the ball and the Warriors have constantly forgotten to account for him. Roberson is getting open right under the basket as easily as Stephen Curry got open beyond the arc all season. Donovan has also gone to a Westbrook/Waiters/Roberson/Durant/Ibaka lineup that has slain the Warriors’ Death Lineup. In 30 minutes this series, that lineup has a +68.5 net rating. Perhaps even more impressive: Donovan was willing to pull out that lineup despite not playing it for one minute the entire season.

Donovan deserves all the credit in the world for coaching the way he has but ultimately, this comes down to the way the Thunder have played. Russell Westbrook has been incredible, even by his standards. When Westbrook turns on the jets, it looks like he’s playing at a different speed than everyone else. Even in the half court, the Thunder have run plays where they simply isolate Westbrook and have him run downhill. Westbrook has supplanted Draymond Green as the league’s alpha dog as well. He’s pushed the Thunder to another level, even shooting uncharacteristically well from 3 while Draymond has quieted when the Warriors have most needed his emotionally charged swagger. The last time Golden State beat Oklahoma City, it came with Draymond shouting at Steve Kerr in the locker room at halftime. That type of emotion just hasn’t been there from Draymond while Westbrook has taken charge.

Durant hasn’t been a dominant player offensively though he’s still averaging 28.5 points per game in the series. Durant’s biggest contributions have been on defense, where he’s functioned as a defacto rim protector when the Thunder go small. Late in the 2^nd quarter of Game 4, the Warriors had one of the only possessions over the last two games where they were able to move the ball like normal. When Durant helped double Draymond under the basket, he flipped it to Livingston who went up for what should be an easy dunk. Instead, Durant made a desperation attempt and blocked Livingston at the rim, using his length to prevent what should have been an automatic two points. Plays like that one have been the reason why OKC has been so dominant around the basket. Look at a shot chart for any one of Golden State’s players and you’ll see an utter lack of shot making at the rim. In Game 4, Draymond Green was 1/5 at the rim, Stephen Curry was 2/7, Andre Iguodala was ¼, Shaun Livingston was 2/5 and Marreese Speights was 0/4. The only two Warriors to have success at the rim were Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes but that’s not enough for Golden State to win.

Serge Ibaka is also responsible for much of OKC’s dominance around the rim. The Warriors were actively passing up layups at times with him in the paint like it was 2013 all over again. Ibaka was great in Game 4 as were the rest of Oklahoma City’s role players. Roberson scored 17 points with 12 rebounds thanks to his newfound role as a screener[2] while Dion Waiters continued his run of good play. Waiters has turned into the guy the Thunder envisioned when they traded for him last season, taking smart shots on offense instead of jacking up pullup 2-pointers while suddenly contributing defensively. It’s a stunning turnaround that almost nobody saw coming. Give credit to Billy Donovan for helping Waiters refine his game.

Steven Adams has been incredible as well especially with unpredictably great defensive versatility. The Thunder has been aggressive switching him onto Curry in the pick and roll and it’s worked stunningly well. Normally, Curry can simply beat big men off the dribble but Adams has stayed home against Curry’s never-ending display of crossovers and dribble moves, waiting for the inevitable pullup 3 with his hands up and ready to contest. This is the only time I can remember that a team has switched a big onto Curry with consistent success and it’s been a huge reason that the Thunder have been so successful defensively[3]. They’ve been able to overwhelm the Warriors, creating turnovers that bleed into the transition chances that Westbrook relishes.

Thanks to this, the Warriors have looked like an entirely different team. In Game 4, they scored 89.9 points per 100 possessions, a number that would have ranked dead last in the league by nearly 10 points on the season. Everything is out of sync, the Thunder have gotten into every passing lane and contested every shot, causing the Warriors’ beautiful motion offense to grind to a halt.

The Thunder haven’t just switched everything to great effect, they’ve been extremely physical with the Warriors. Watch Stephen Curry when he’s off the ball now compared to during the regular season. Before, teams were allowing him to run wild, wreaking havoc as the defense constantly scrambled to find him. Now, the Thunder are bumping Curry every chance they get, making it impossible for him to get through the lane at his normal speed. Curry’s injury back in Round 1 may be playing a role in his poor performance, but that’s not an excuse. This late in the playoffs, nobody is fully healthy and Curry doesn’t seem all that limited on the defensive end, where he’s done a solid job keeping Westbrook in front of him.

Draymond Green also isn’t playing up to speed. He hasn’t just been out-witted emotionally by Westbrook, he’s been outplayed by virtually everyone on the floor. By now, you’ve seen Green’s abhorrent plus/minus over the past two games but even that seems to understate how badly he’s playing. Green’s turnovers (4 in Game 3, 6 in Game 4) haven’t been your standard turnovers; they’ve been mental lapses where Green simply isn’t seeing OKC defenders in passing lanes or even right behind him. Green has tried to play fast, returning to Golden State’s roots, but it hasn’t been effective whatsoever. Green normally excels in transition, where he can go downhill and either get to the rim or kick it to Curry or Klay Thompson for a 3, but the Thunder have either gotten back or simply rebounded, making it impossible for the Warriors to get out in transition. This transition dominance makes it beneficial for Golden State to slow things down, something that would have been unthinkable a week ago. The one game in the series that Golden State won had a pace of 92.4. The two games that OKC shellacked them: 104.3 and 104.5.

Coaching-wise, that’s the biggest adjustment the Warriors can make. It seems likely that they’ll also stop using Draymond Green as a rover against Andre Roberson’s given OKC’s success when the Warriors have done so. Whether they’ll go to a more conventional alignment of hiding Stephen Curry on Roberson or use Andrew Bogut, whose awareness is significantly better than Green, as the rover. Steve Kerr could also change up the starting lineup. It’s been heavily speculated that he could go to the Death Lineup to start despite its lack of success in the series but don’t count out starting Festus Ezeli over Bogut. Playing Ezeli to start quarters would prevent the Thunder from hacking him, a strategy that’s worked well in the series[4]. Shortening the rotation and taking away the sparse minutes that Anderson Varejao and Marreese Speights have played may help as well but ultimately the Warriors aren’t losing this series because of Steve Kerr. To save their season, they need Curry and Green to play the way they have all season. Without that, nothing else matters.

All stats are from basketball-reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] Can coaches make The Leap? Normally we reserve that term for players but this is so drastic there’s just no other way to describe it.

[2] Don’t sleep on Roberson’s defense either. There’s a reason he’s been a mainstay in OKC’s rotation despite having no offensive game.

[3] Durant has also been great when switched onto Curry.

[4] Haralabos Voulgaris brought this up yesterday on Bill Simmons’ podcast.

Billy Donovan needs to do the impossible: Outcoach Steve Kerr

When the Thunder brought in rookie head coach Billy Donovan last season, it was to deliver what Scott Brooks couldn’t: a championship. A title would cure the rumors of Kevin Durant’s departure this summer and of Russell Westbrook’s the next. A title would prevent the Thunder from going down in history next to the 7 Seconds or Less Suns, the 2002 Kings, the ’04 T-Wolves and the Patrick Ewing Knicks. Great team never got over that hump. The Thunder came into these playoffs with the cloud of Durant’s impending free agency looming over them, knowing that they may not get another chance to erase that label. After the Game 1 embarrassment against San Antonio, the size of that cloud tripled. The noise around Donovan did as well; it had taken him a long time to get acclimated to the NBA, he had failed to do basic things like stagger Durant and Westbrook for the first part of the season and the Thunder had been a disaster in crunch-time.

By halftime of Game 3 against San Antonio, the Durant Era felt like it may be at an end. If the Thunder had lost the game and gone on to lose the series, it might have been and Donovan might have been at fault. Instead, The Thunder stormed back from a halftime deficit, won the game and the series, blowing San Antonio out of the building in Game 6 and suddenly it looked like the Duncan Era was ending instead of the Durant Era.  After Monday night’s win at Golden State, the cloud of Durant’s potential departure had evaporated. And regardless of what happens next, it’s tough to believe he leaves.

That being said, the Thunder can still win this series and they can still win the title. We saw that in Game 1. But in Game 2, the Warriors detonated the nuclear option, shutting out all the noise and massacring the Thunder in their only must-win game all year. Perhaps the most important aspect of that win was Steve Kerr showing his brilliance yet again. The Warriors got more aggressive in not guarding Andre Roberson, clogging OKC’s offense and making it impossible for Durant to get an uncontested shot. They ran a few more pick and rolls, especially high HORNS with Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green screening for Stephen Curry, resulting in OKC’s defense essentially throwing up its hands in frustration by the time Curry’s heat check happened in the third quarter. It was like Bill Belichick throwing the Kitchen Sink at Baltimore in the 2014 playoffs, making John Harbaugh, one of the league’s most respected coaches, look like an idiot with Julian Edelman throwing a touchdown on an option pass and formation trickery whereupon the defense had no idea who was eligible[1]

Donovan was like John Harbaugh in that game except instead of a Super Bowl-winning coach with a good reputation, he was a rookie head coach who we were just starting to come around on. Sure he had won some things at Florida, but the NBA is a whole different ballgame and once again, Donovan was striking out.

Whether or not he can recover in Game 3 and outwit Steve Kerr is going to decide whether this can be a series. Last year, Memphis had no answer when Kerr guarded Tony Allen with Bogut and David Blatt was rendered helpless when Kerr went to the Death Lineup in the Finals. In nearly two years of coaching, Kerr has yet to lose a chess match or even have one that’s particularly close. A lot of that is obviously due to the disparity in talent between the Warriors and the rest of the league and this series is no exception. Golden State’s supporting cast blows OKC’s out of the water. However, that doesn’t change the fact that an opposing coach has yet to counter one of Steve Kerr’s adjustments in a playoff series with any degree of success.

OKC’s bench doesn’t leave many options for Donovan and the Thunder is still underdogs even if he does everything perfectly. But if things stay the same, OKC has no chance whatsoever to win the series. Andre Roberson can no longer start, nor can he play when Andrew Bogut or Draymond Green is on the floor. He has a -29.2 net rating in the series because of the way Golden State’s defense can simply ignore him and send two guys at Kevin Durant. It’s close to impossible for Durant to get an open shot with Roberson out there and it’s close to impossible for the Thunder to get into the paint. Dion Waiters may be a defensive liability, but the Thunder can’t afford to keep Roberson on the floor if they’re going to win the series.

Donovan also needs to change up OKC’s pick and roll coverage, much like he did after Game 1 of the San Antonio series. Golden State got anything they wanted out of high HORNS and though the Curry/Green pick and roll hasn’t seen much action, the Warriors will use it more as they realize the Thunder have no remedy for it. The Thunder need to be crystal clear on how to defend any Warrior pick and roll combination and they need to be damn near perfect in doing it.

Perhaps the biggest task for Donovan though is to find a way to utilize Enes Kanter without the Warriors exploiting him constantly. Steve Kerr has been aggressive in going small whenever the Thunder bring in Kanter and even more aggressive in putting Kanter into the pick and roll, forcing him to defend in space where he often trips over himself. There is no clear-cut solution here. Donovan could go big more often—lineups containing Kanter and Steven Adams have a +3.6 net rating over the first two games—but that option leaves the Thunder vulnerable defensively[2]. He could take Kanter out of the rotation entirely but that would the Thunder without their best offensive big man and serve as an embarrassment to an organization that gave Kanter a max deal last offseason. If Donovan were to take Roberson out of the rotation as well—perhaps a necessary outcome—the Thunder are suddenly fielding a six man rotation, a workload that may be too much to shoulder.

In Donovan’s position, I would go big, giving the Kanter-Adams lineups more run. In Game 2, the Warriors rebounded 34.1 percent of their own misses as oppose to just 16 percent in Game 1. The Thunder need to keep Golden State’s offensive rebound rate as low as possible, rebounding is the only place they can be exploited. Going big is the best chance to do that, plus it allows the Thunder to play their own game instead of trying to out-small the Warriors who have out-smalled the entire league all season. When Donovan tried to go super-small with Durant at the 4 and Ibaka at the 5, that lineup got run off the floor. The best way to beat Golden State is to control the tempo and make them play slowly and controlling the boards gives OKC their best chance to do that.

Whether or not Donovan adjusts tonight is going to decide just how close this series is. Nobody has countered Golden State successfully in two years but if the Thunder can compete, they need Donovan to do just that.

All stats are from basketball-reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] I re-watched this game the other night and besides Belichick, the other thing that stands out is Baltimore’s offensive line. Even when all five guys were healthy (which wasn’t very often) it just wasn’t the same last year. There were holes for Justin Forsett on every single play and Joe Flacco had as much time as he needed in the pocket. I have no idea what happened between then and the start of last season but I would wager that the change in offensive coordinators from Gary Kubiak to Marc Trestman had something to do with it. That’s like going from Pedro Martinez as your ace to Kei Igawa.

[2] Those lineups have also allowed 109.1 points per 100 possessions.

2016 Eastern Conference Finals Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors

The Raptors finally, finally broke through the wall. It took them three years to win a playoff series with this core and finally they did it not once but twice. This is one of very few times that a team can consider a season successful without having won a championship. The Raptors don’t have to spend the offseason deciding whether or not to keep Dwane Casey or whether or not to even try to keep DeMar DeRozan because now they know that they can win with this core. The franchise has to consider that successful because it’s their ceiling for this year. They’ve had a good run, but beating the Cavs is close to impossible for them.

I wrote an article at the beginning of the postseason saying that the Cavs would not win the Eastern Conference and I could not have been more wrong. Cleveland has started to like each other and play well together at exactly the right time. They’ve gone away from a LeBron-centric approach in crunch time in favor of a more team-oriented one. Kevin Love is playing his best basketball as a Cavalier and Kyrie Irving isn’t far behind. Instead of subtweeting each other, the Cavs are all eating together with Love and LeBron front and center.

Front and center in Cleveland’s renaissance has been Kevin Love. Love has been much more involved in the postseason with a 26.6 percent usage rate as oppose to a 23.4 percent usage rate in the regular season. He’s attempting more field goals as well and it’s helped Cleveland’s offense. Against Atlanta, the Cavs scored 122.9 points per 100 possessions as oppose to the 104.3 points per 100 possessions they scored in the regular season. The team collectively shooting over 50 percent from 3 against Atlanta is likely unsustainable, but the offense itself has taken a huge step towards being more efficient.

In addition to Love suddenly looking like the player he was two years ago, LeBron James has flipped a switch. Part of my thesis that the Cavs would lose in the postseason was LeBron’s downturn in shooting and that he had played nearly 4,500 playoff minutes since 2011 in addition to a huge regular season workload. Instead of slowing down though, LeBron has hit the accelerator. He has a 53.6 effective field goal percentage in the postseason and he’s sharing the ball too. LeBron has a 33 assist percentage in the postseason and much of Cleveland’s offense has stemmed from his passing[1].

Kyrie Irving has also shot less and passed more. He’s still at his best when he’s a scorer, but getting no assists in a game as he famously did early last year is unthinkable. Irving averaged 6.3 assists against Atlanta as oppose to the 4.7 he did in the regular season. Obviously he’s played more minutes in the postseason but Irving has clearly become a more willing passer.     

The biggest thing for Cleveland going into the Conference Finals is to sustain their shooting as best they can. Though it’s unlikely they’ll be hitting 3s at the same rate they have for the first two rounds, the only way the Raptors can really make things close is if Cleveland sees some extreme regression. Perhaps no player is more emblematic of this than J.R. Smith who had a 71.2 true shooting percentage against Atlanta in Round 2. It’s safe to assume that Smith won’t keep up that blistering pace but in the past he’s been an inconsistent chucker with a knack for shooting his team out of games. His consistency is huge as to whether or not this series will be close.

The other interesting subplot in this series is how much the Cavs have to go small. Miami did it out of necessity against Toronto and in Game 7 it failed miserably. That being said, Cleveland’s small lineups with Love or Channing Frye at center are much bigger than Miami’s lineups with Justise Winslow at center. Frye has played well in these playoffs with insane shooting and 9.1 rebounds per game. Cleveland hasn’t gone small all that much though with LeBron James playing a relatively small 31 percent of minutes at power forward. This feels like the series where Cleveland goes to those lineups more given that there aren’t many more games left until the Finals when going small will be the only option. A Conference Finals that figures to be a wash is a good time to test different options to find the best counter to Golden State’s Death Lineup.

For Toronto to have a chance at winning this series, a lot of things have to go right for them. The first and most obvious of those things: Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have to play like superstars. They may have made up the core of a 56-win team but neither has carried the load in the playoffs consistently. Both have had their moments, Lowry’s Game 7 against Miami being chief among them, but Lowry’s PER for the postseason is barely above average at 16.3 and DeRozan’s is a middling 11.9. Lowry’s recent performances indicate that his slump may be over with but the Raptors may need a 35-7-9 line like the one he put up in Game 7 on a nightly basis in this series. DeRozan on the other hand has continued to play poorly. To put it into the simplest terms possible, DeRozan has scored 280 points this postseason on 290 shots, totaling a 35.5 field goal percentage that is simply unacceptable for someone considered to be anything close to a superstar. Not only has DeRozan failed to do his normal scoring duties but he’s simply not a good enough passer or defender to make up for it. He doesn’t have the vision to see open guys off of double teams most of the time, preferring to barf up a shot from 15 feet that he’s been rarely hitting as of late. Offensively, he needs to turn it around starting tonight or Toronto has no chance to win this series.

They also need DeMarre Carroll to play the series of his life on defense given that he’ll likely be Casey’s first choice to guard LeBron James. Carroll is a good defender, it’s the main reason the Raptors brought him to Toronto, but guarding LeBron the same way that Andre Iguodala did in the Finals is a gargantuan task.

The impending health of Jonas Valanciunas is going to play a big role in Toronto’s success as well. Valanciunas dominated down low when healthy, averaging 15 points and 12.1 rebounds but it seems unlikely that he returns from a sprained ankle for the first two games of the Conference Finals. The Raptors need him and they need him as soon as possible and at full health, a likely impossible request.

Bismack Biyombo and Patrick Patterson have played well at center in his absence, but Toronto can’t climb the proverbial hill that is the Cavaliers with those two being their only real options at center. Biyombo’s blocks and dunks are great as is his rim protection, but that all isn’t good enough to fully compensate for his general lack of an offensive game. He can certainly play, but at this point opponents exploit every possible hole and Biyombo’s offense is a gaping hole. Patrick Patterson’s defense is worrisome as well. With him on the floor, opponents have scored 105.2 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs, a number too big to ignore. Though Patterson’s ability to stretch the floor comes in handy, the Cavs will take advantage every time he guards Kevin Love.

The Raptors will also need more production from their reserve wings. Norman Powell has been banished to the bench as Terrence Ross has taken the reins but there isn’t much evidence that this was worked. Ross has the lowest net rating of any Raptor this postseason by a fairly wide margin. He’s had some good games, but his utter lack of defensive prowess makes him impossible to depend on. The Raptors don’t have many other options outside of Ross and Powell that don’t involve giving a big minutes boost to DeMarre Carroll and Cory Joseph, who’s mostly played shooting guard this postseason, so Ross will wind up seeing some of the floor. Those are big minutes for the Raptors; they need to beat Cleveland in the rare minutes that LeBron sits if they stand a chance.

While Toronto may have a chance of being competitive in this series, I can’t say I’m all that optimistic about it. The Cavs are on a roll and Toronto simply isn’t good enough to beat them. Cavs in 5.

All stats are from basketball-reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] LeBron is one of the most underrated passers of all-time.  He’s not quite at Bird’s level but he’s closer than people think.

2016 Western Conference Finals Preview: Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City Thunder

After a fairly disappointing first two rounds, the Conference Finals are finally here. The Warriors have avoided stumbling on their quest for the greatest season ever, but they’ve come damn close. Stephen Curry’s MCL injury occurring in the first round—when the Warriors didn’t need him to dispose of the miserable Rockets—was a godsend, as was his being able to return as soon as he did. The Blazers also could have won Games 2 and 4 of the series if not for a Warriors onslaught in Game 2 and Curry’s miraculous performance in overtime of Game 4. However, the Warriors can’t make it over another road bump, they need everyone at full health from here on out. If Andrew Bogut’s adductor strain or Draymond Green’s rolled ankle turns into something worse, the dream season will end.

The Thunder have already pulled off a mini-miracle against the Spurs—a victory spurred on by suddenly inspired coaching from Billy Donovan, Kevin Durant reminding the world he’s a superstar and Russell Westbrook playing like a madman[1].But the Thunder won’t be able to do the same things they did against San Antonio.

Against the Spurs, lineups featuring Enes Kanter and Steven Adams played a total of 66 minutes and found great success with a +21.8 net rating. Those lineups also pulled down an insane 66.7 percent of available rebounds, which will tempt Donovan to test them again against the Warriors. Doing so would be ill-advised. The Spurs chose to attack the slow-footed Kanter in post-ups rather than pick and rolls where his weaknesses can better be exploited. The Warriors won’t make the same mistake, they’ll throw Kanter in a pick and roll blender with whomever he guards and reap the rewards. Adams may be more adept at handling that but playing two bigs defensively against the Warriors and surviving is a near impossibility. Even the Spurs downsized against them in the regular season, inserting Boris Diaw into the lineup the lone time they beat Golden State this season.

Kanter’s ability to stay on the floor is going to be huge in whether or not the Thunder can stay in the series. Even if he struggles defensively when the Warriors go small, Kanter has become a monster on the boards—the one place that the Warriors can be exploited. An occasional post-up won’t hurt either—Kanter can give the Warriors trouble down low. But defense is the real key to Kanter’s game. Though far from inspiring, he was competent enough on the defensive end against the Spurs. Golden State will go at him and if he can’t stay with their blistering speed, he won’t be able to stay on the floor.

Kanter isn’t the only key player the Warriors will try to render unplayable. Golden State made a statement by guarding Maurice Harkless with Andrew Bogut in Game 1 of the Portland series and it rendered Harkless nearly unplayable for the rest of the series. They won’t hesitate to do the same with Andre Roberson who shot a lowly 31.1 percent from 3 this season. Though Roberson had his moments from 3 against San Antonio, he shot just 25 percent from downtown in the series[2]. He can’t play big minutes against Golden State.

Waiters Island had a new housing development or two pop up against San Antonio but it’s now his job to make sure a hurricane doesn’t hit. Dion Waiters played the way the Thunder envisioned when they traded for him last season, suddenly transforming into a quality wing. His defense will crop up again as an issue against Golden State, a team that excels at exploiting every weakness it can find, but if he can continue his run of good play then the Thunder has a chance.

One of the most stunning parts of the last two years for the Thunder has been Serge Ibaka’s transformation into just another player. Ibaka, however, may have a big role to play in this series. He hasn’t played a ton of center this year, but he may have to for the Thunder to match up with Golden State’s Death Lineup. A Westbrook/Foye/Waiters/Durant/Ibaka lineup that may be OKC’s best hypothetical shot at keeping up with the frantic pace of the death lineup played just 12 minutes together this season[3] and just 9 percent of Ibaka’s minutes have been at center this year.

Ultimately though, it doesn’t matter what OKC’s role players do if Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook don’t have the series of their lives. Durant made Gregg Popovich regret not guarding him with Kawhi Leonard by averaging 28.5 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists against San Antonio but the Warriors won’t back down from putting their best defender on him. Expect Andre Iguodala and Draymond Green both to be guarding Durant for stretches. Despite that, Durant is one of the best three players in the world. Who guards him shouldn’t matter. He carried the Thunder at times in the last series[4] and he’s going to have to do it again in this one.

The same goes for Westbrook. He needs to find a way to incorporate his rapid unyielding warp-speed drives into the offense without hijacking possessions and shooting it when Golden State clogs the lane. The Spurs were more than happy to give Westbrook any outside shot he wanted and it worked on paper. Westbrook shot a lowly 28.6 percent from 3 and though some of the 3s he made were particularly important, that will even out over the course of another series. Golden State will also dare Westbrook to shoot, ducking under screens and sagging off of him to try and get a head start on his unstoppable drives. Westbrook happily obliged against the Spurs, attempting 5.8 3s per game as oppose to the 4.3 he averaged in the regular season. That won’t go against Golden State, Westbrook needs to drive to the basket and create the chaos in which he thrives. Another way Billy Donovan could unleash him is to put him in the post—especially while he’s being guarded by the smaller Stephen Curry. The Thunder ran some interesting stuff out of Westbrook post-ups in the regular season and his ability to get to the basket makes him ideal in backing down against smaller guards. Westbrook ranked in the 80^th percentile on post-ups this year; scoring .95 PPP but the Thunder has largely abandoned those sets in the postseason. They should make a return in the Conference Finals.

The Warriors need everyone in this series. They’ll probably start going to the Death Lineup sooner and more often in this series to better exploit OKC’s clunky big men and lack of two-way players. That lineup, featuring Curry, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala and Draymond Green, had a stunning +47.0 net rating in 76 regular season minutes. It’s seen just 13 minutes over the playoffs—mostly due to Curry’s injury—but the Warriors will start to feature it more heavily. Whether or not the Thunder can match up when the Warriors go small will be pivotal. OKC’s rebounding may be a saving grace; they had a 28 percent offensive rebounding rate against San Antonio, outrebounding the Spurs by nearly 50 over the series in total. However, the Spurs aren’t the type of team to take advantage when a team lags behind in transition. If the Thunder can’t pull down an offensive board, the Warriors will counter with a flurry of passes ending in an inevitable layup or 3. Golden State got out in transition more than all but three teams during the regular season and was third with 1.16 points per transition possession[5]. If OKC chooses to leave a big on the floor against a small lineup, they better be rebounding nearly everything in sight or Golden State will make them pay.

Curry’s also going to be more active in this series than he was in the two games he played against the Blazers. In both of those games it took Curry a while to get into the flow of things before he got things rolling. But in the 4^th quarter, Curry shot 66.7 percent from 3 and averaged 12 points and 2.5 assists. With more rest and having played two games against Portland, it won’t take that long for Curry to heat up. The best strategy we’ve seen against Curry this season has been getting physical, hand-checking Curry if the refs allow and getting more and more physical as the game goes on. Westbrook will likely draw the assignment at least to start and though he’s been a space cadet at times, he’s capable of getting physical. If the Warriors guard Westbrook with Thompson, a much better defender than Curry, it will create a cross match that Westbrook will be able to take advantage of in transition chaos as well.

Thompson himself has had an incredible postseason in Curry’s absence. He’s averaging 27.2 points, shooting 47.5 percent from 3 with a 59.5 effective field goal percentage. Thompson has also played admirable defense, guarding Damian Lillard well in the last series. He’s played like a superstar in these playoffs and if he can keep it up with Curry in the lineup, the Warriors may simply be unbeatable.

Another tactic the Thunder may try is to get inside the head of Draymond Green. Known to be hotheaded at times, Green has already picked up 4 technical fouls this postseason to lead the league, per ESPN.com. Certainly the Thunder will dare him to shoot off pick and pops as Green is inconsistent at best from 3 despite a solid 38.8 percent from downtown this year[6]. However, once Green gets going it’s tough to stop him. His relentless drives in transition may rival those of Westbrook and his switchability on unlocks Golden State’s top-5 defense. When Iguodala is off the floor, expect him to be assigned to Kevin Durant.

On those lethal Curry-Green pick and rolls, the Thunder may go to the strategy many have tried and help off of Harrison Barnes or Iguodala. Though it’s impossible to cover everything, this strategy has failed when other teams try it as both have shot well on corner 3s this season. The 23-year old free agent to be Barnes may be the weakest link for Golden State but don’t take him lightly. Barnes has earned his spot in Golden State’s rotation with strong defense and an offensive game that’s passable at worst and looks a lot better when he’s surrounded by the talent that Golden State has.

This is also a series where Festus Ezeli needs to see a lot of the floor. With Bogut likely limited at least for the early games, Ezeli is the Warriors’ only option if they want a traditional center on the floor as playing Anderson Varejao is as bad an idea as ever. Ezeli is a strong rebounder, leading the team in offensive rebounding rate[7] and being second only to Bogut in total rebounding rate. It’s going to be up to him to carry the load at the position.

Ultimately, this is still a series that will be decided by star power as most are at this point. The Warriors have home court, where they are close to indomitable. Curry, Green and Thompson have been lighting the league on fire all year and that’s not going to change now. OKC will be their toughest opponent yet and maybe their toughest opponent of the entire postseason but Golden State is potentially the greatest team ever. Warriors in 7.

All stats are from basketball-reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted

 

[1] Okay there was also some truly horrendous refereeing at the end Games 2 and 4, both of which the Thunder won.

[2] This made it twice as baffling that Gregg Popovich didn’t put a big on Roberson. Hiding Parker on him was a given while he was on the floor, but without Parker it should have been Duncan or Aldridge or even David West guarding Roberson.

[3] On the bright side, that lineup did have a +21.2 net rating in those 12 minutes.

[4] The way Game 4 went down with Durant scoring 41 points and leading the Thunder on a 34-16 4^th quarter makes me think he’s staying. If they lose that game and go down 3-1 in the series, Game 4 suddenly feels a lot like LeBron’s last games in Cleveland and Miami. Now that they broke through the glass ceiling and beat the Spurs, it becomes much harder for him to leave unless they get demolished by Golden State.

[5] The two teams in front of them in transition PPP (Toronto and Cleveland) had 1,002 and 1,147 transition possessions. Golden State had 1,597.

[6] Nearly all of Green’s 3 pointers have been open. Just 1.6 percent of his attempts are when a defender is between 2 and 4 feet and just 0.1 percent are when a defender is closer than two feet.

[7] Excluding Kevon Looney who played just 21 games this season

Golden State from the East Coast

Last night yet another Warriors game ended at an ungodly hour on the East Coast. I had stayed up for every other late game in this series but I just couldn’t do it again. I was nodding off and having trouble focusing on the game so I turned it off and went to sleep. It’s the first time I’ve done that with a Warriors game in a long time because they’re consistently worth staying up for. No other team in sports history passes the Bed Test[1] more than the 2015-16 Warriors.

It isn’t because the outcome is ever in doubt because most of the time, it isn’t.  Their crunch time lineup—better known as the Death Lineup—had a +47.0 net rating in the regular season. In the playoffs, the Warriors have a +18.0 net rating in the 4^th quarter. You’re not staying up until 1:30 AM to see if the Warriors are going to win because that’s practically been a foregone conclusion all season[2], you watch the Warriors to see how they are going to win. And 10 times out of 10, it’s worth it.

In Game 2 against Portland, the Warriors were missing Curry and had been down all game. They came into the 4^th quarter staring down an 87-76 deficit against an inspired Damian Lillard and the Blazers. Didn’t matter. It took them less than two minutes to cut the deficit to five and Klay Thompson tied it with three with 6:44 left in the game[3]. 6 minutes and 44 seconds later, the buzzer sounded and the scoreboard read Warriors 110, Trail Blazers 99. Even without the league’s unanimous MVP, the Warriors put on a clinic in the 4^th quarter.

In Game 4, Curry was back and he started 0/10 from 3. The Blazers scratched and clawed their way to overtime with a raucous Rose Garden urging them on. Curry proceeded to score 17 points in overtime, a playoff record. Not only that, but he did it on an MCL that didn’t seem fully recovered. Curry’s incredible performance melted Twitter and left Charles Barkley speechless. It was his own version of LeBron putting the ’07 Pistons to bed in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals only we already knew that Curry was capable of it. There was no chance in hell the Warriors were losing that game. If you stayed up watching it on the East Coast until nearly 2 in the morning to watch it, you did it because you knew they were winning and you wanted to see it unfold.

Part of my rationale for going to bed after the third quarter of Game 5 was that I knew they were going to win. I was right about that, but I forgot the second part of the equation. I knew they were winning Games 2 and 4 also, but stayed up for them because I knew it would be a show. For Game 5, I went to sleep and missed it.

I missed the incredible shooting from Curry late, the constant off-ball motion from the entire team, the passing, cutting and chemistry that seems to translate into telepathy at times. The Warriors embody everything I love about basketball but for some reason I let sleep win me over last night. When I scrolled through Twitter the next morning and saw some of the highlights I instantly regretted my decision. Given that what might be the greatest team ever has somewhere between 4 and 14 games left in its season, I won’t let it happen again and neither should any East Coaster.

All stats are from basketball-reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted 

 

[1] The Bed Test as defined here by Bill Simmons: “When you watch sports day in and day out on the East Coast, eventually you will develop an uncanny ability to answer this question: ‘If I go to bed now, is there a chance I might miss something memorable?’ In other words, ‘Will I be kicking myself tomorrow morning?

[2] This will probably change starting in the Western Conference Finals although the Thunder had been bad all year in crunch time until 10 days ago and the Spurs don’t have much of an answer for the Death Lineup.

[3] Nate Duncan and Danny Leroux made the case for Klay as an early Playoffs MVP on today’s Dunc’d On podcast and I think I agree. He’s averaging 27.2 points, shooting 47.5 percent from 3 with a 63.5 true shooting percentage and 23.5 PER. He’s also covered Portland’s best player (Lillard) effectively in the series and did most of it without Curry.