We are counting down the hours until Thursday night's kickoff between the Patriots and Steelers which will signal the beginning of the 2015 NFL season. In this inaugural column, we're going to take a closer look at the Dilfer Zone, discuss why Jay Gruden needs to be fired in Washington, the latest on Kam Chancellor's holdout which will extend into Week 1, give final playoff and Super Bowl picks, and of course break down every game of the upcoming week.
To start, we're going to look at the Dilfer Zone as well as the quarterbacks who are right around the Dilfer Zone. If you don't know, the Dilfer Zone is the term given to the tier of quarterbacks who can give a team enough to win a Super Bowl if surrounded by great talent. Named after Super Bowl XXV winning quarterback Trent Dilfer, who the Ravens won a Super Bowl with by building a great team around him, the Dilfer Zone is where most non-elite quarterbacks are. If you're a consistent starting quarterback in the NFL who the team can build around then there's a good chance you're in the Dilfer Zone. Some Dilfer Zone quarterbacks who have won Super Bowls in recent years include Eli Manning (twice), Ben Roethlisberger (who was in the Dilfer Zone when he won Super Bowl XL but out of it when he won Super Bowl XLIII), Bruce Johnson, Tom Brady (only in his first Super Bowl win (XXXVI) was he in the Dilfer Zone, after which he obviously climbed above it and became one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time), and Russell Wilson (who is now out of the Dilfer Zone but was in it when the Seahawks won Super Bowl XLVIII).
Currently in the Dilfer Zone are Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater, Carson Palmer, and Nick Foles. In the group slightly above the Dilfer Zone are Joe Flacco, Phillip Rivers, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan with Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton coming slightly below the Dilfer Zone (by the way, the quarterbacks aren't listed in any particular order. It's not a ranking; it's just establishing who's in the middle three quarterback tiers). We'll take a closer look at all of these quarterbacks starting with the group below the Dilfer Zone.
Just Misses
Jay Cutler: 54.0 QBR, 3,812 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 18 interceptions (tied for league lead), 5.57 ANY/Att, 11 AV, -17.0 PFF Grade, 66.0% completions
Am I being too nice to Cutler by putting him here? The Bears benched this guy in favor of Jimmy Clausen last season and most people wondered why they hadn't done so sooner. He's a bad teammate, his offensive coordinator hated him, he famously sat on the sideline when the Bears lost the NFC Championship Game in 2011, and the Broncos felt comfortable trading him away so they could have Kyle Orton be their quarterback. It's pretty clear to everyone by now that unless Cutler experiences a major shift, he will never win a Super Bowl. However, I have trouble believing that Jay Cutler isn’t at least immediately below the Dilfer Zone. I mean, there are probably seven or eight franchises that would sell their soul to get Cutler, his ridiculous contract, and his bad attitude to play for them. And despite not being a very good decision maker, Cutler is certainly capable of standing in the pocket and making good throws. After all, he's led the Bears to an NFC Championship Game. Despite being the last good quarterback any coach would name when it comes to the guys he wants at the position, Cutler still has to be considered in that group just by merit for now. If he gets benched again than I won't be able to justify putting him here but I think that at least at the moment, I’m obligated to.
Andy Dalton: 55.2 QBR, 3,398 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 5.75 ANY/Att, 11 AV, -5.4 PFF Grade, 64.1% completions
Although the Bengals probably consider themselves set for the long-term with Andy Dalton, I don't think they should. Dalton, although there are some positives and he's certainly young enough to move up into the Dilfer Zone, has shown no ability to win when it matters. Dalton has consistently been terrible when on national television and, in truth, he hasn't been all that great at 1:00 on a Sunday either. Though Dalton seemed to put doubts about his national-TV ability to bed in a win against the Broncos on Monday Night Football last season, he followed that up with a loss to the Steelers on Sunday Night Football the next week in which he was not disastrous but didn't exactly inspire anybody. His appearance against the Browns on Thursday Night Football last season was so awful that I feel bad bringing it up. Dalton has a passer rating of 2.0, threw for only 86 yards and was intercepted three times. In four tries, Dalton has never won a playoff game either and has completed just 55.7% of passes which is significantly less than his career regular season average of 61.6%. However, these struggles are not limited to when Dalton is viewed by the whole country. That touchdown to interception ratio of 19 to 17 was for the entire season, not just the games everyone saw. Same with the -5.4 Pro Football Focus grade that ranked 21st among quarterbacks. There are also some arm strength issues with Dalton. Last season he threw for 1,665 yards in the air which was significantly behind Derek Carr, Brian Hoyer, and Colin Kaepernick all of whom need offenses built around weaknesses in similar categories. Dalton was also tied for 18th in deep passing attempts, something that shouldn't happen in an offense that features A.J. Green who leads the league in yards per pass route run. Though Dalton is 27 and there's room for him to improve, the Bengals should have him on a short leash. I think that things could fall apart for them this season and Dalton is a big part of that.
The Dilfer Zone
Ryan Tannehill: 59.1 QBR, 4,045 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 5.83 ANY/Att, 14 AV, +9.8 PFF Grade, 66.4% completions
After a start to his career that was fairly nondescript, Tannehill started to put it together last season and the result was good. Not only did he have a career low in interceptions, but his interception percentage was also the lowest of his career. That was also in a season during which Tannehill had a career high in pass attempts which makes the interceptions all the more meaningful. Though Tannehill is still treated as somewhat of an afterthought by national media, the fact is that the Dolphins have found their long-term solution with him. Last year he had career highs in a lot of categories and I think he's going to best a lot of them this year with a better supporting cast. Tannehill was just outside of the top-10 in Pro Football Focus grading among quarterbacks (when I say just outside, I mean by 0.3) and there's good reason for that. Tannehill has been well-developed and despite disappointingly missing the playoffs this season, the Dolphins will be right back in the hunt with him this year. I don't have them there but I don't think anybody would be surprised if they made it.
Alex Smith: 49.4 QBR, 3,265 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 6.14 ANY/Att, 13 AV, +2.5 PFF Grade, 65.3% completions
In my Chiefs preview, I called Smith the quintessential Dilfer Zone quarterback and I stand by that. The Chiefs have had to and will continue to build their offense around his limitations. He'll never be good throwing deep and he'll never be the guy you want leading a 4th quarter comeback but it's still possible to build a winner around him. The Chiefs' offense doesn't require much of him and he's a good enough decision maker (1.3% interception rate last season) that he isn't going to drag them down. Ask yourself this. If Alex Smith replaced Trent Dilfer on the 2000 Ravens, would they still win a championship? The answer should be yes and as long as that answer is yes, he deserves to be in the Dilfer Zone. Smith may be the most boring quarterback in football, but he gets the job done.
Eli Manning: 70.9 QBR, 4,410 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 6.67 ANY/Att, 12 AV, +0.9 PFF Grade, 63.1% completions
Yes, Eli Manning is going to frustrate his fanbase. Yes, he's going to give away one or two games a year through interceptions. I know this because I'm a part of the fanbase that roots for him. But, Eli Manning also has two Super Bowls. If I wasn't a Giants fan, and Eli didn't share a last name with one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time, I might have called this "The Manning Zone". Last season, Eli Manning might have been the most underrated quarterback in football. There's good reason for that: Manning was coming off the worst season of his career, took a while to adjust to a new offense, is subject to media in New York criticizing his every move, and had Odell Beckham Jr stealing the spotlight but the fact is the Manning bounced back nicely last season. His interception rate was cut in half and was a full one percent below his career average. He also was back up to 6.67 adjusted net yards per attempt after an abysmal 4.55 the year before. The ultimate problem with Manning is that the guy from two years ago could surface easily. However, I don't think he will. In part because of a supporting cast that includes Odell Beckham Jr, who seemingly catches everything within a 12-yard radius of him and also in part because Ben McAdoo's system requires a lot less of Eli, especially now that he's fully integrated in it. He's also a better playoff quarterback than a regular season quarterback which is a big reason why the Giants have won two Super Bowls. Yes, they had great defenses, offensive lines, and everything else in those Super Bowl wins but nothing comes together unless Eli Manning is good enough to make it happen. He went up against strong Patriot defenses both times, especially in 2007, and did enough to win. That says more about Manning than anything else and in McAdoo's system there isn't a very big chance he's going to regress.
Sam Bradford (2013 stats, 7 games): 48.0 QBR, 1,687 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 6.10 ANY/Att, 6 AV, +1.9 PFF grade, 60.7% completions
I'm pretty low on the Eagles and a lot of it is because of both Bradford and coach Chip Kelly. However, it isn't because of Bradford's talent and it isn't because of Kelly's coaching acumen. If Bradford stays healthy (something I think is pretty unlikely), he's going to be good in Kelly's system which is tailor-made for Dilfer Zone quarterbacks. From what little we've seen of Bradford in the past few seasons, he's a developing guy who, if he stays healthy, you can build a team around. His biggest problem isn't anything performance-related; it just has to do with health. Chip Kelly's offense is also perfect for Bradford if he can keep up. I don't think Kelly is a good coach when it comes to creating team chemistry and there's good evidence to that. That's the main reason I think the Eagles will finish third when everyone is picking them to be in the playoffs. However, Kelly's system is still the most unique in football and it's had success. If Bradford stays healthy, he's right there with the rest of the Dilfer Zone. However, that is not an easy ask.
Teddy Bridgewater: 50.2 QBR, 2,919 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 5.46 ANY/Att, 9 AV, +4.5 PFF Grade, 64.4% completions
Bridgewater is not only the consensus best quarterback of the 2014 draft, he's also one of the biggest reasons that people think the Vikings can mount a playoff push. Bridgewater had a very encouraging rookie season, leading an Adrian Peterson-less Vikings to a 7-9 record (they were 6-6 with Bridgewater as the starter) which is no small feat considering the utter lack of a running game that the Vikings had last season. This year, Peterson is back and they've added talent with Mike Wallace at wide receiver. It may be a little premature to think of Bridgewater as a Dilfer Zone quarterback but if he isn't a sure thing in this tier by the end of the season, I'd be shocked. I also think that Norv Turner is a great offensive coach and is a good person for Bridgewater to develop under. Turner's offense is molded straight from Don Coryell's which is very quarterback-friendly (just ask Dan Fouts). He's still developing but Bridgewater has already made strides at this level and is ready to take the next step this year.
Carson Palmer (6 games): 64.8 QBR, 1,626 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 7.09 ANY/Att, 4 AV, +1.3 PFF Grade, 63.4% completions
Like Bradford, and the next quarterback on this list, Nick Foles, Palmer's productivity depends on health. If he can stay healthy (a big if), the Cardinals have a real shot at the playoffs. Palmer, in just six games last season, had a 1.3% interception ratio. He's a proven veteran quarterback whose only question is health. Last season, he was on track for one of the best in his career. On top of the 11 to 3 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions, Palmer had 7.09 adjusted net yards per attempt and ranked 12th in both QBR and DVOA among quarterbacks. Admittedly, that's based on a pretty small sample size but Palmer being a strong quarterback is not a new development. Though he'll never be the guy people expected when he came out of USC, Palmer still is capable of leading the Cardinals to the playoffs if he can stay healthy.
Nick Foles (8 games): 62.2 QBR, 2,163 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 5.93 ANY/Att, 5 AV, -7.4 PFF Grade, 59.9% completions
The two biggest things to look for with Nick Foles this season are health and his productivity outside of a Chip Kelly offense. Though his stunning ascent to stardom two seasons ago was clearly an overstatement of his ability, Chip Kelly or not, Foles did prove that he can be a solid foundation for an NFL team in the eight games he played last season. Health with Foles isn't as big a question as it is with Palmer or Bradford and quite honestly I'm tired of starting sentences with "If _______ stays healthy", so I'm not going to discuss that much with Foles. The real question is how much his of his productivity was Chip Kelly-dependent. I don't think that Foles is going to be helpless without Kelly. Though that offense probably got the most out of him, it would probably get the most out of nearly every quarterback in football. The Rams will have to tailor their offense around Foles' restrictions but that offense still has the chance to be pretty good and mostly as a result of him. Foles is far from the greatest Dilfer Zone quarterback in football but teams can certainly win with him under center. Over the last two seasons, the Eagles were 14-4 with him as their quarterback despite Foles being pretty far from elite. That screams Dilfer Zone to me and it should to you too.
Elite?
Joe Flacco: 67.3 QBR, 3,986 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 6.66 ANY/Att, 14 AV, +7.1 PFF Grade, 62.0% completions
The question of whether or not Joe Flacco is elite is one that may never be answered. However, Flacco has at least proven that he's right on the border. For one, winning a Super Bowl improves your resume pretty well. In the regular season, Flacco is right in the upper echelon of the Dilfer Zone. He's solid but not the star player who the Ravens can win games on the back of. However, Flacco's near-elite status comes from his playoff performances that have kept the Ravens in games and won them a few as well. There's a reason that although the Ravens finished third in the AFC North last season, they were the biggest hurdle that the Patriots will have to clear. It's the same reason that the Ravens should be considered favorites in the AFC this season: Joe Flacco's ability to go from good to great at a moment's notice. Having a great offensive line and strong running game helps but the Ravens have been able to be competitive on a consistent basis without the benefit of having many star wideouts. Elite or not, Flacco is the right there when it comes to guys you want under center in crunch time and ultimately, that's what matters most.
Philip Rivers: 66.8 QBR, 4,286 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, 18 interceptions (tied for league lead), 6.45 ANY/Att, 12 AV, +13.7 PFF Grade, 66.5% completions
Here's an intriguing question: Would either team do the Eli Manning for Philip Rivers trade again? Yes, Eli won two Super Bowls with the Giants but he's also pretty inconsistent and Rivers is undoubtedly the better quarterback. If he's on those Super Bowl-winning Giants teams instead of Manning, there's no immediate reason to think that they don't win. If Eli's a Charger for the past decade, there's a good chance that they're much worse but they were also the team that the Patriots beat to get to Super Bowl XLII which they eventually lost to Eli Manning and the Giants. Nobody knows what would happen but it's certainly something to think about. Ultimately, both teams would probably do it again but neither quarterback has lived up to his potential. Though Rivers has been a superstar for extended periods of time, he's also come crashing back down to the Dilfer Zone for just as long. Rivers tied for the league lead in interceptions last year and has thrown 15 or more in three of the last four seasons. San Diego's lack of talent at wide receiver might be a contributor to his fairly standard 2014 but Rivers' failure to elevate those receivers might be a reason to knock him down into the Dilfer Zone. Rivers is certainly capable of winning a Super Bowl. However, I'm not sure he's the guy to lead his team to one.
Cam Newton: 56.9 QBR, 3,127 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 5.45 ANY/Att, 12 AV, +15.5 PFF Grade, 58.5% completions
I might be overrating Cam Newton a bit--later in this column I'm going to go back on my previous pick of the Panthers to win the NFC South (I wrote my Panthers preview before Kelvin Benjamin was injured)--and I think that Carolina is going to be brutal this season. But, that will be no fault of Newton's. He's certainly not at the elite level because if he was then it wouldn't be a huge concern that Ted Ginn and Philly Brown are going to be his starting receivers in Week 1 but he's also not at the Dilfer Zone. Newton does what 90% of Dilfer Zone quarterbacks can't. He elevates his teammates. Not to the extent that Brees, Brady, Luck, and Peyton Manning do but the threat of Newton's running alone makes his teammates better. His passing may need work though. Though he's manageable in the pocket, he's also far from the level that he needs to be in order to really be considered among the best quarterbacks in football. Though that +15.5 Pro Football Focus grade, which ranked 6th among quarterbacks, looks great, Newton's Pro Football Focus grade for passing is +4.7 and ranks 13th among quarterbacks. He's an abysmal deep passer, ranking 22nd with a lowly 31.5 accuracy percentage and 483 deep passing yards (which also ranks 22nd). He also uses play action as a crutch. Newton has a solid 92.7 passer rating in play action but when taken out of it that drops to 78.2. Though Newton has been able to avoid some of the same problems that plague other read options quarterbacks, he's not out of the woods entirely. If he doesn't become a better pocket passer, defenses will eventually begin to eat him up as they better adjust to zone reads (something that they've already started to do).
Matt Ryan: 67.0 QBR, 4,694 yards, 28 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 6.71 ANY/Att, 15 AV, +20.3 PFF Grade, 66.1% completions
As I spurn the Panthers in the NFC South, the team I'm putting in their place is the Falcons. Matt Ryan was fifth among quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus grading last season and threw for nearly 4,700 yards despite a an offensive line that may have been better served playing in college ball. Ryan was top-10 among quarterbacks in DYAR, DVOA, and QBR while his touchdown total doubled his interceptions. The biggest reason that Ryan isn't considered elite is because the Falcons have been bad the last two years despite him. Although Ryan was far from perfect, most of their struggles were unrelated to him. Remember, the Falcons ranked top-10 in offensive DVOA last season. The biggest reasons for the Falcons record being as bad as it was the defense, which ranked dead last in DVOA, and the coach, who made it a habit to give away games due to legendarily bad clock management. That coach, Mike Smith, has since been fired and his replacement is a defensive guru in Dan Quinn. As a result, the Falcons record will be better, as will the respect around the league for Matt Ryan. Although we should know that quarterback record is an archaic statistic, not indicative of ability whatsoever, it is tough for a quarterback to rise to the spotlight if his team isn't performing well. Once Ryan's team is performing better, we'll suddenly be listening to people debate whether or not Matt Ryan is elite. In truth, they should have started that debate a long time ago.
A Plea to the Redskins: Fire Jay Gruden
Key in the events of the past few weeks in regards to the treatment of Robert Griffin III by Jay Gruden and the Washington Redskins is one question: Why has Jay Gruden not been fired? Gruden got the head coaching job by selling Dan Snyder and the front office on his ability to develop Griffin as a pocket passer. However, it took roughly 3 minutes for everyone to realize that Gruden did not have that intention. Having clearly failed in his mission, setting the franchise back years in doing so, Gruden should be fired. Not only has he failed in that regard, but Gruden has also done so in the most spectacular fashion imaginable. Allowing Griffin to stay in a preseason game after he had taken a big hit and was possibly (probably) injured, or at least shaken up, gave off the impression that Gruden was either indifferent or even privy to the possibility of Griffin getting hurt. No matter what your views are on whether or not Kirk Cousins is better than Robert Griffin, that's not the way a head coach should treat any player, let alone a quarterback in a preseason game. And Gruden is not the only man to blame. From Dan Snyder down, the Redskins organization has been an utter joke for the last number of years. Aside from doing everything possible to avoid changing their racist name, Washington has also bungled the product on the field. However, Jay Gruden's case is a rare chance for Dan Snyder to show some competency. Snyder, who reportedly is alone in Washington when it comes to wanting Griffin to start, should not fire Gruden for picking Cousins, a decision that quite frankly won't have much of an effect because both quarterbacks are terrible but should fire him for blatant mistreatment of personnel as well as failing to deliver on his original promise to develop Griffin. No matter what happens, this will be looked upon as a complete debacle but doing this would at least allow the Redskins to save some face and, just maybe, make it look like they care.
Newest Spygate Report Indicts Goodell, Not Patriots
Tom Brady and the New England Patriots have already been falsely vilified for Deflategate through erroneous reporting, circumstantial evidence, and the simple fact that people look for reasons to hate teams that win. Now, in yesterday's Outside the Lines report, new details have emerged about both Spygate, the previous cheating scandal regarding the Patriots and how it links to Deflategate. The accusation in the report that has the most support, and is probably the most accurate, is that the Patriots had a system set up for filming their opponents' signals. Well, the thing is that everyone used to do that. In addition to John Madden discussing it openly on the broadcast I just linked, the report notes that Jimmy Johnson tried it (Johnson himself said at the time of Spygate that he "know[s] for a fact there were various other teams doing this") and that Belichick claims other teams did it as well, something that I fully believe. Not to mention, the Spygate Wikipedia page notes that "videotaping opposing coaches is not illegal in the NFL." Though what the Patriots did in that 2007 game was illegal, it came after a league memo reminded everyone of the rule. Some of the other accusations, such as the Patriots stealing opponents play sheets before every game, I find to be ludicrous. The idea that an opposing team would leave their locker room completely vacant when the Patriots doing this was "notorious", allowing them to steal a play sheet, is one that I find incredibly hard to believe. In addition, the Patriots going through the opposing team's luggage to find scouting reports sounds unfathomable. Not to mention that most of the people quoted as saying that they felt the Patriots knew their play calls in key games were, you guessed it, on the teams that were beaten by New England in those big games. To me, it sounds like something that they tell themselves to lessen the pain of losing and, one source from the Panthers team that lost Super Bowl XXXVIII is even quoted in the report as saying that he can't "prove the Patriots cheated." To me, it sounds like the Patriots did what everyone else in that era did: taped the opposition's games to learn some of their signals. They just did it better than everyone else, and used it to their advantage accordingly. That brings us to Roger Goodell. No matter where you stand on the spectrum when it comes to the legitimacy of Spygate and Deflategate, the fact is that once the Patriots were caught, after that memo had been issued, they had to be punished. They broke a rule and it probably helped them win a game. It turns out that Roger Goodell ordered tapes that would have made New England look much worse destroyed in what looks to have been an attempt to bail out Robert Kraft. As a result, the NFL's owners thought that he was soft on Kraft and the Patriots in his investigation of them and subsequent punishment (by the way, Belichick's $500,000 fine was the largest ever at the time and the maximum under league rule). So, in classic Goodellian fashion, he came down hard on the Patriots after Deflategate as a sort of "makeup call." The fact that Goodell is allowed to impose discipline in this way is alarming, as is the fact that he, in essence, tried to cover up Spygate. This report merely confirms what most people probably already thought about the Patriots. However, in terms of Goodell, it puts yet another bullet point on his long list of screw-ups.
Kam Chancellor: When Does it End?
As of today, Kam Chancellor's holdout has still not ended. The Seahawks are going to play Week 1 without him which could make them pretty vulnerable (we'll cover that later) but there might even be a possibility that Chancellor holds out the entire season. Multiple teams have apparently called Seattle about a trade (by the way, why don't the Giants pull Jason Pierre-Paul's franchise tender, trade for Chancellor and give that money to him? I don't know if that's possible finance-wise and the Giants may not have the pieces to work out a deal but if I'm Jerry Reese, I'm trying pretty hard to at least find a way to make it conceivable) but Seattle doesn't want a trade and they aren't negotiating with Chancellor. Unless a couple missed game checks are enough to deter Chancellor into coming back, there's a real chance that he doesn't play this year. In any case, Chancellor has probably hurt his value, both on the field and in later free agency, by holding out for this long. It's not easy to come back and be yourself after missing training camp, and possibly some games, entirely. If he misses a full season, Chancellor won't be somebody that other teams want and the Seahawks will probably be reluctant to eventually extend him because they won't have seen him for a year. If he plays and underperforms, he won't have a chance of upping his salary because he won't be the same player and he'll still be someone who other teams may not want because this saga. In theory, Chancellor should get more money. All NFL players should. But, that's not going to happen and by holding out for this long, Chancellor has likely hurt himself more than his team.
Playoff Picks: The Final Edition
Most of my picks are going to remain the same as they were in the previews I wrote. However, the NFC South, as I noted earlier, has changed and I never specified wild card winners in the AFC. Here's my preseason playoff picks, and Super Bowl prediction.
NFC: Cowboys, Packers, Falcons, Seahawks, Rams (wild card), Lions (wild card)
AFC: Patriots, Ravens, Colts, Broncos, Steelers (wild card), Chiefs (wild card)
NFC Wild Card Round: Seahawks over Lions, Rams over Falcons
AFC Wild Card Round: Colts over Steelers, Broncos over Chiefs
NFC Divisional Round: Packers over Rams, Cowboys over Seahawks
AFC Divisional Round: Ravens over Patriots, Colts over Broncos
NFC Championship Game: Packers over Cowboys
AFC Championship Game: Ravens over Colts
Super Bowl: Packers over Ravens
Even without Jordy Nelson, the Packers will march to a title. The Seahawks have a lot of questions surrounding them, especially if Kam Chancellor is going to miss some of the regular season. I don't think it's smart to pick a repeat champion so there go the Patriots, and the Ravens, Colts, and Cowboys just aren't good enough to beat Green Bay if those teams had to play them. The Packers still have a strong defense, the league's best quarterback, and a strong all-around offense. Unless Rodgers gets injured, there are few scenarios where I can't see them winning Super Bowl 50.
Best Bets: Over/Under Win Totals
Here are my eight best picks for over/under win totals on the season. Win totals and odds are from sportsbook.ag
Ravens OVER 9.5 wins (+110): I have the Ravens coming out of the AFC and winning the AFC North in the process. I think that this is their year given that it's a wide open AFC and I think that they're significantly better than the Bengals and a step above Pittsburgh. I could see them losing only one divisional game and though starting off the season in Denver is tough, the other AFC West teams that Baltimore is playing aren't too bad because they get to play Kansas City at home instead of going into Arrowhead. Between all of that an out-of-division slate that includes the Jaguars and 49ers, it's tough for me to believe that the Ravens aren't going to have at least 10 wins.
Colts OVER 10.5 wins (-165): These aren't exactly great odds but as long as Andrew Luck is healthy, Indianapolis winning at least 11 games is as sure a thing as the sun rising in the east and setting in the west. They get to play the Jaguars, Titans, and Texans twice. Of those six games, Indianapolis should lose roughly zero. Oh yeah, and they also play every team in the NFC South which happened to not have a single team above .500 last season. Out of New Orleans, Atlanta, Carolina, and Tampa Bay, Indianapolis will lose at least one but you aren't betting against them in any of those games. If this team is the Super Bowl favorite that it's billed as, 11 wins should be a cinch. If not, 11 wins is still a cinch because the schedule is a piece of cake.
Patriots OVER 10.5 wins (-150): The odds on this aren't great either (if you can parlay them with the Colts, do it) but once again, this is like free money. With Brady back for the entire season, is there a single game on New England's schedule where you feel good picking against them? They have a few tough ones (at Dallas, at Denver, at Indianapolis) but the Patriots not only won the Super Bowl, they've been defending themselves for the last 7 months against laughable allegations that have laughable evidence (despite this, the wide majority of people still see Tom Brady as the Antichrist). I think that they go on the offensive starting tomorrow night. I'll talk about the season opener tomorrow further down but I think that the Patriots are going to blow out Pittsburgh. I could honestly see them winning by 35 or 40 points tomorrow. The atmosphere at Gillette has the chance to be among the league's best for the entire year and with all their toughest games on the road, I could see New England not losing a game at home. They're going to have the "us against the world" mentality to end all "us against the world" mentalities. They are going to coast through the regular season with middle fingers up the entire way.
Bengals UNDER 8.5 wins (-110): If you couldn't tell, I'm not a big fan of Andy Dalton. I think that he's going to really implode this season, I think that Marvin Lewis won't be able to keep his job, and I think that the Bengals might be rebuilding this time next year. Dalton has never been a good NFL quarterback; he's merely been average at best. He's also so bad in prime time that it's tough to fathom the Bengals winning any of their three nationally televised games, despite two of them being against the Browns and the Texans. Thus far in his NFL career, Dalton's specialty has been failure. Be it the playoffs, prime time games, or otherwise, Dalton has consistently disappointed. I'm going to stop now because between the Bengals preview I wrote and the explanation of why Dalton shouldn't be in the Dilfer Zone that I did earlier, I feel like I've ripped on the guy enough (oh, and I'm picking the Raiders against them this week, so there's more to come. Sorry Andy).
Jets UNDER 7.5 wins (-120): This line is half a win too high for a team that finished 4-12 last season and had its starting quarterback punched out by a teammate. Of course, I think that Ryan Fitzpatrick is better than Geno Smith but the fact is that the Jets can't possibly expect to be at .500 or above while their team is already falling apart and whether it's Fitzpatrick or Geno, they don't have a good quarterback. The defense is going to be good, but Sheldon Richardson is suspended for at least four games (we're still waiting to see how Goodell messes up his suspension after Richardson drove 143 mph while high, with guns in the car, and resisted arrest. Maybe he'll suspend him for life to make Deflategate up to the Patriots) and Leonard Williams won't be limited in Week 1 but it's not as if his knee injury has gone away. Ultimately though, I just don't think that the Jets are going to be able to score enough to compete.
49ers UNDER 6.5 wins (-145): The 49ers just endured the worst offseason in NFL history. After their mass exodus, San Francisco is left with essentially nothing. Unless Colin Kaepernick has a major turnaround, I don't see a chance that the 49ers are drafting outside of the top-5 in April. They're just going to be abysmal. The defense is gone, the league has figured out Kaepernick, Jim Harbaugh and his staff are all gone, and to me it feels like that the Niners are going to have to get a lot worse before they can get better again. They also play in arguably the best division in football, so there's that to look forward to on their schedule. Outside of Kaepernick seriously (and I mean seriously) improving, I don't see a plausible scenario in which the Niners are remotely competitive this year.
Redskins UNDER 6.5 wins (-200): Organizational discord? Check. The worst quarterback situation in the league? Check. A head coach that's doing everything short of openly rooting for the team's biggest name to either get injured or fail? Check. A racist name that has Native Americans protesting outside of the team's games and Dan Snyder refusing to change it, making him undoubtedly the worst owner in sports? Check. Anything else that needs to be said here?
Chargers UNDER 8.5 wins (-120): Despite Philip Rivers, the Chargers are going to have a lot of problems this season. I think that their running game might be okay but their receiving corps is terrible and so is their offensive line. Antonio Gates, the backbone of the organization, is suspended for the first four games, the front seven is going to be unreliable at best, and the AFC West is going to be a very competitive division. I think that the Chargers could reach 8 wins, in essence because Philip Rivers is a really good quarterback and that's what you need to have success in this league, but I have trouble seeing them doing anything beyond that.
Week 1 Picks
Last, but not least, we're picking Week 1 games. And it only took us 6,350 words to get here. All lines are from sportsbook.ag.
Patriots -7 OVER Steelers: I said earlier that I expect the Patriots to blow Pittsburgh out in this game. This is going to be Brady's triumphant return home and the home-field advantage is going to be very significant. How significant? Roger Goodell decided to pull a Sepp Blatter and not go. It'll be the only time since Goodell became commissioner that he doesn't attend the opener and do you really blame him? The guy probably wouldn't be safe if he stepped foot in the Boston area. Also, the Steelers are going to be playing in this environment, against this opponent, without the league's best running back and without their #2 wide receiver. The importance of not having Le'Veon Bell in this game cannot be understated. When they played without Bell in the playoffs, their offense failed to find any rhythm whatsoever and it may have cost them the game. It's not as if the Steelers are winning games with defense anymore, and they can't throw the ball to Antonio Brown every snap even if he's being covered by Malcom Butler. The Patriots are going to dominate this game and set the tone for a strong season.
Packers -7 OVER Bears: Packers-Bears feels less like a rivalry than a formality. The Packers won both contests last season by a combined score of 93-31, blowing out Chicago both at Lambeau and on the road. Even without Jordy Nelson, I think that the Packers have more than enough talent to win the Super Bowl. Although the NFL probably felt happy scheduling this rivalry game in Week 1, there's a reason it's at 1:00 and not 8:00. This has a very good chance to be a blowout win for Green Bay as the Bears will feel lucky to stay within four touchdowns.
Chiefs +1 OVER Texans: Even on the road, I think that Kansas City can pull out a victory against Houston. When the biggest factors as to whether your team wins are questions like "Do we think J.J. Watt can get 3 sacks, a pick-six, and a touchdown catch?" and "Are we sure that Brian Hoyer will throw less than 3 interceptions?" , you shouldn’t feel very confident. In all seriousness, though this has a chance to be a close game, I can't see Houston winning unless they hold the Chiefs to about 17 points or less. Without Arian Foster, the Texans have no means of generating offense outside of closing their eyes and hoping that Brian Hoyer can get the job done (by the way, the chance of DeAndre Hopkins having an Andre Johnson-like career in terms of quarterbacks is very real and people should be worried about it). They also don't have a huge chance of controlling possession because Alfred Blue averaged 3.1 yards per carry last season and they shouldn't feel comfortable handing him the ball. Kansas City will do the opposite with Jamaal Charles and their passing game has been fairly underrated with the addition of Jeremy Maclin. Even in Houston, it's tough to see the Texans pulling out a victory against competition as good as the Chiefs.
Jets -3 OVER Browns: Nobody should feel comfortable betting on either of these teams. I covered all of the deficiencies regarding the Jets earlier in this column and the Browns might be worse off. Ultimately, I think that the Jets can win, and cover, because they're not going to be overmatched at quarterback, Leonard Williams is going to play, they're at home, and the Browns might have one running back. Ryan Fitzpatrick facing off against Josh McCown at QB is a fairly even battle and the Jets' receivers are miles better than Cleveland's. The Jets announced that Leonard Williams is going to play which, although I don't know how effective he'll be, is much better than the alternative. The Jets are also at home, and being favored by 3 indicates that this game would be a pick'em if played on a neutral site. That's going to help the Jets significantly in what, from a gambling standpoint, is a pretty even matchup. Also, with Duke Johnson just being cleared after a concussion, I wonder how much Mike Pettine dares to use the rookie running back despite him saying that Johnson would play a "significant role" earlier today according to Mary Kay Cabot. Other than Johnson, Isaiah Crowell is the only Browns running back on the active roster. That's not a very good situation coming into Week 1 and overreliance on pass with Josh McCown throwing the ball should never be a recommended course of action.
Bills +3 OVER Colts: I like the Colts this season, so does everyone, but I think that this game is close and the Bills have a real shot at winning it. This is going to be a great test to see how much Buffalo's defense can keep it in games. They're going to have to go up against the one of the league's best quarterbacks, who has a revamped running game and an improved receiving corps to work with, and hold them while the offense figures itself out with Tyrod Taylor under center. I think that they're up to the task. On the road, I wouldn't like them as much but in Buffalo, where the Bills will have the benefit of 71,857 fans on their side, I can see them pulling off a Week 1 upset.
Dolphins -4 OVER Redskins: Even though the Redskins are at home, 4 points isn't a big enough line for this game. The organizational turmoil that the Redskins have gone through in the past few weeks combined with them not being very good in the first place makes it tough for me to believe that they're going to turn in a big performance against a Miami defense that, between Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake, is going to put Washington's offensive line through a 3-hour torture session. The Dolphins are going to be able to move the ball almost at will against this defense, especially given that the Redskins lost Junior Galette before he played a snap for them. I think that by the end of the third quarter, the fans that don’t leave FedEx Field early will be calling for Colt McCoy to play quarterback.
Jaguars +3.5 OVER Panthers: I'm a little bit optimistic on the Jaguars this season and I'm down on the Panthers post-Kelvin Benjamin injury. Jacksonville's defense has stealthy top-10 DVOA potential and this is a chance for them to show that to the world. Carolina is reportedly starting Ted Ginn Jr and Philly Brown at wide receiver which means that they're going to have to really lean on the running game. However, Cam Newton's rushing attempts have gone down by the year and I don't think that the Panthers want to subject him to many big hits, meaning that they may stray away from the read option. Jonathan Stewart can create offense just fine but Jacksonville's run defense might be pretty decent. I think the Panthers are going to have trouble creating offense. Though Carolina's defense isn't overtly lacking, I think that the Jaguars can at least cover a 3.5 point spread in a low-scoring game at home.
Rams +4.5 OVER Seahawks: The Rams beat Seattle last season when the two played in St Louis. This time, they won't have to rely on wonky special teams plays in order to stay in it. The Rams have an offense now with Nick Foles at quarterback (by the way, I like receiver Brian Quick to have a decent year) and Seattle's defense is down 1.5 men. Kam Chancellor, as of this writing, isn't playing in this game. Earl Thomas, their other star safety, is playing but will do so hurt as he isn't fully recovered from shoulder surgery. I could regret this statement, but there are questions about Seattle's defense going into Week 1. Other than Richard Sherman, there may not be a reliable secondary member. Though I think the Seahawks will ultimately be able to pull out a win, they're going to have trouble scoring against the Rams' defense as well. St Louis has one of the best run defenses in football and Seattle has a fairly makeshift offensive line. Whether or not they can run the ball may come down to how many tackles Marshawn Lynch can break (in fairness that was the case for most games last season and the Seahawks were just fine). The Rams should be able to at least cover and I think they have a shot to win.
Cardinals -3 OVER Saints: As long as Carson Palmer is healthy, the Cardinals are a fairly safe pick on a weekly basis. Though the team has its problems, those are far outweighed by that of the defense for New Orleans. The Saints were 31st in defensive DVOA and their marquee addition, Brandon Browner, is a lock for at least one pass interference call per game. I don't have much faith in Rob Ryan as the coordinator although the personnel are pretty bad to begin with. Though Drew Brees will singlehandedly be able to keep them in it, the Saints' defense holding down the fort on the road is unlikely at best.
Lions +3 OVER Chargers: I don't like San Diego's chances this year whereas I'm bullish on the Lions. I think that Detroit has been underrated in the wake of Ndamukong Suh's departure. I see Detroit pulling away in a back-and-forth game. This is a more than winnable game for them. The Lions' defense isn't what it was last season but it's more than good enough to slow down the Chargers who I think are going to lean on Rivers to keep them in games. If San Diego's secondary can play to its potential, that may be enough for the Chargers to win but I think that Detroit covers nonetheless.
Buccaneers -3 OVER Titans: Though Winston vs Mariota is a fun matchup, the Bucs are miles beyond the Titans and it doesn't have anything to do with quarterback. Winston is throwing the ball to Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. He's handing it off to Doug Martin. Mariota is throwing it to Kendall Wright and Dorial Green-Beckham and handing it off to Bishop Sankey. Guess which one's gonna look better. Mariota is also going up against a better defense. Lovie Smith is a strong defensive coach and Tampa Bay was middle of the pack in defensive DVOA last season. Gerald McCoy is going to have his way with Tennessee's linemen and could put on a show. The quarterback matchup is what everyone is going to watch, but the supporting cast is what could turn this into a sizable Bucs win.
Raiders +3.5 OVER Bengals: I have Oakland pulling off a Week 1 upset (though I'm picking Jacksonville to do the same so take my opinion with a grain of salt). If you read my Raiders preview, you know that I think they're a team capable of finishing about 6-10. In the case of the Bengals, I think that they're a team that might not be capable of finishing above 6-10. I've ripped on Andy Dalton enough today so I'm not going to do so here. However, I will say that I think the Raiders are going to surprise a lot of people with their ability to score the ball in this game. I think Amari Cooper makes an immediate impact, Latavius Murray plays well, and Derek Carr looks decent. The only way I see the Bengals winning this game is if Jeremy Hill has a really great game and they can dominate possession in that way. That's not incredibly unlikely but if it does happen, I think the Raiders can still cover a 3.5 point spread at home.
Ravens +5 OVER Broncos: This is the game of the week and I think that, win or lose, the Ravens make a statement. I'm not confident enough to pick Baltimore outright on the road against Peyton Manning but I certainly think they cover. This could be the type of game decided by three points in either direction. I think it's close all the way down to the wire no matter who wins. Manning's Broncos might be able to prevail at home but I don't think they can do so by a very wide margin. These are two of the four best teams in the conference and it's a potential playoff matchup. I'd be shocked if this isn't the best game all week and I'd be very surprised if Baltimore doesn't at least cover.
Cowboys -6 OVER Giants: No matter who plays running back for Dallas, their offensive line is going to have its way with the Giants. They're going to control possession, they're going to be at home, and the Giants' secondary is so bad that Dez Bryant might have the best game of any receiver this week. The Giants are so understaffed at safety that they just need warm bodies. Landon Collins, their second round pick, might be able to contribute, but Brandon Meriweather is fulfilling expectation by just being on the field. The offense might keep them in this game but Dallas should be able to march down the field at will. Even if the Giants can keep it close for the majority of the game, I think the Cowboys can pull away in the 4th quarter.
Falcons +3 OVER Eagles: I'm not incredibly confident in Chip Kelly's Eagles. I'm willing to give them a chance but this is not the week to do it. Picking the Eagles to win by three, on the road to a good offensive team in Atlanta, isn't something I'm willing to do until I see Philadelphia in action. Though this is a pick I might be regretting by about 9:30 on Monday night, it's not one that I feel is anything close to unlikely. Atlanta's offense is going to be able to keep them in it; even if the Eagles are able to score easily. By virtue of Chip Kelly's offense being the fastest in football, the Falcons have a leg up in the possession battle despite an uncertain running game that will see Tevin Coleman feature. On the road, I just don't feel comfortable picking the Eagles yet.
Vikings -2.5 OVER 49ers: I think that this game could turn into a blowout. Going up against a severely weakened 49ers defense compared to last season, Adrian Peterson is going to be able to do whatever he wants in the running game. Minnesota is going to completely dominate possession and when the 49ers do have the ball; Colin Kaepernick is really unreliable, even against a fairly nondescript Vikings defense. Though the 49ers might be able to run it with Carlos Hyde, I think that the Vikings jump out to an early lead, which would lead San Francisco away from the run, its only reliable form of offense at this point. The Vikings are favored, but 2.5 points is about 3 points too few, even in San Francisco.
All stats are from pro-football-reference.com, footballoutsiders.com, or profootballfocus.com unless otherwise noted. Point spreads, win totals, and odds are from sportsbook.ag
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