What the hell happened?
That’s a question the entire basketball world has been trying to find the answer to since the Warriors were demolished for the second straight game, putting their dream season on life support and making the Thunder unquestioned title favorites. To beat Golden State, you need to do everything right. They won 73 games for a reason. The Thunder has done everything right and then some. The result has been sheer dominance. So where do we start with answering the question of how this happened? The Thunder is winning the series so let’s start with them.
First and foremost, Billy Donovan has suddenly transformed into Red Auerbach crossed with Bill Belichick crossed with Plato. All year, Donovan was essentially a laughingstock on Twitter and in any piece of writing about him. Over the San Antonio series and this one, he’s made The Leap[1]. Donovan shortened his rotations drastically against the Warriors; in Game 4, only six players played over 15 minutes. Donovan used Enes Kanter and Steven Adams together to OKC’s advantage against San Antonio but against Golden State, he’s barely used that combo and he’s barely used Kanter, knowing that the Warriors will take advantage of him in the pick and roll every time. When Steve Kerr had the Warriors ignore Andre Roberson, Donovan made Roberson an integral part of the Thunder’s offense. Roberson has become an active screener both on ball and off the ball and the Warriors have constantly forgotten to account for him. Roberson is getting open right under the basket as easily as Stephen Curry got open beyond the arc all season. Donovan has also gone to a Westbrook/Waiters/Roberson/Durant/Ibaka lineup that has slain the Warriors’ Death Lineup. In 30 minutes this series, that lineup has a +68.5 net rating. Perhaps even more impressive: Donovan was willing to pull out that lineup despite not playing it for one minute the entire season.
Donovan deserves all the credit in the world for coaching the way he has but ultimately, this comes down to the way the Thunder have played. Russell Westbrook has been incredible, even by his standards. When Westbrook turns on the jets, it looks like he’s playing at a different speed than everyone else. Even in the half court, the Thunder have run plays where they simply isolate Westbrook and have him run downhill. Westbrook has supplanted Draymond Green as the league’s alpha dog as well. He’s pushed the Thunder to another level, even shooting uncharacteristically well from 3 while Draymond has quieted when the Warriors have most needed his emotionally charged swagger. The last time Golden State beat Oklahoma City, it came with Draymond shouting at Steve Kerr in the locker room at halftime. That type of emotion just hasn’t been there from Draymond while Westbrook has taken charge.
Durant hasn’t been a dominant player offensively though he’s still averaging 28.5 points per game in the series. Durant’s biggest contributions have been on defense, where he’s functioned as a defacto rim protector when the Thunder go small. Late in the 2nd quarter of Game 4, the Warriors had one of the only possessions over the last two games where they were able to move the ball like normal. When Durant helped double Draymond under the basket, he flipped it to Livingston who went up for what should be an easy dunk. Instead, Durant made a desperation attempt and blocked Livingston at the rim, using his length to prevent what should have been an automatic two points. Plays like that one have been the reason why OKC has been so dominant around the basket. Look at a shot chart for any one of Golden State’s players and you’ll see an utter lack of shot making at the rim. In Game 4, Draymond Green was 1/5 at the rim, Stephen Curry was 2/7, Andre Iguodala was ¼, Shaun Livingston was 2/5 and Marreese Speights was 0/4. The only two Warriors to have success at the rim were Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes but that’s not enough for Golden State to win.
Serge Ibaka is also responsible for much of OKC’s dominance around the rim. The Warriors were actively passing up layups at times with him in the paint like it was 2013 all over again. Ibaka was great in Game 4 as were the rest of Oklahoma City’s role players. Roberson scored 17 points with 12 rebounds thanks to his newfound role as a screener[2] while Dion Waiters continued his run of good play. Waiters has turned into the guy the Thunder envisioned when they traded for him last season, taking smart shots on offense instead of jacking up pullup 2-pointers while suddenly contributing defensively. It’s a stunning turnaround that almost nobody saw coming. Give credit to Billy Donovan for helping Waiters refine his game.
Steven Adams has been incredible as well especially with unpredictably great defensive versatility. The Thunder has been aggressive switching him onto Curry in the pick and roll and it’s worked stunningly well. Normally, Curry can simply beat big men off the dribble but Adams has stayed home against Curry’s never-ending display of crossovers and dribble moves, waiting for the inevitable pullup 3 with his hands up and ready to contest. This is the only time I can remember that a team has switched a big onto Curry with consistent success and it’s been a huge reason that the Thunder have been so successful defensively[3]. They’ve been able to overwhelm the Warriors, creating turnovers that bleed into the transition chances that Westbrook relishes.
Thanks to this, the Warriors have looked like an entirely different team. In Game 4, they scored 89.9 points per 100 possessions, a number that would have ranked dead last in the league by nearly 10 points on the season. Everything is out of sync, the Thunder have gotten into every passing lane and contested every shot, causing the Warriors’ beautiful motion offense to grind to a halt.
The Thunder haven’t just switched everything to great effect, they’ve been extremely physical with the Warriors. Watch Stephen Curry when he’s off the ball now compared to during the regular season. Before, teams were allowing him to run wild, wreaking havoc as the defense constantly scrambled to find him. Now, the Thunder are bumping Curry every chance they get, making it impossible for him to get through the lane at his normal speed. Curry’s injury back in Round 1 may be playing a role in his poor performance, but that’s not an excuse. This late in the playoffs, nobody is fully healthy and Curry doesn’t seem all that limited on the defensive end, where he’s done a solid job keeping Westbrook in front of him.
Draymond Green also isn’t playing up to speed. He hasn’t just been out-witted emotionally by Westbrook, he’s been outplayed by virtually everyone on the floor. By now, you’ve seen Green’s abhorrent plus/minus over the past two games but even that seems to understate how badly he’s playing. Green’s turnovers (4 in Game 3, 6 in Game 4) haven’t been your standard turnovers; they’ve been mental lapses where Green simply isn’t seeing OKC defenders in passing lanes or even right behind him. Green has tried to play fast, returning to Golden State’s roots, but it hasn’t been effective whatsoever. Green normally excels in transition, where he can go downhill and either get to the rim or kick it to Curry or Klay Thompson for a 3, but the Thunder have either gotten back or simply rebounded, making it impossible for the Warriors to get out in transition. This transition dominance makes it beneficial for Golden State to slow things down, something that would have been unthinkable a week ago. The one game in the series that Golden State won had a pace of 92.4. The two games that OKC shellacked them: 104.3 and 104.5.
Coaching-wise, that’s the biggest adjustment the Warriors can make. It seems likely that they’ll also stop using Draymond Green as a rover against Andre Roberson’s given OKC’s success when the Warriors have done so. Whether they’ll go to a more conventional alignment of hiding Stephen Curry on Roberson or use Andrew Bogut, whose awareness is significantly better than Green, as the rover. Steve Kerr could also change up the starting lineup. It’s been heavily speculated that he could go to the Death Lineup to start despite its lack of success in the series but don’t count out starting Festus Ezeli over Bogut. Playing Ezeli to start quarters would prevent the Thunder from hacking him, a strategy that’s worked well in the series[4]. Shortening the rotation and taking away the sparse minutes that Anderson Varejao and Marreese Speights have played may help as well but ultimately the Warriors aren’t losing this series because of Steve Kerr. To save their season, they need Curry and Green to play the way they have all season. Without that, nothing else matters.
All stats are from basketball-reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted
[1] Can coaches make The Leap? Normally we reserve that term for players but this is so drastic there’s just no other way to describe it.
[2] Don’t sleep on Roberson’s defense either. There’s a reason he’s been a mainstay in OKC’s rotation despite having no offensive game.
[3] Durant has also been great when switched onto Curry.
[4] Haralabos Voulgaris brought this up yesterday on Bill Simmons’ podcast.
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